stoidi

@vanzack

 Not sure why I always thought you were a canuck as well.  Prolly the van part of your name.  What's your twitter handle?  I used to enjoy reading your NFL write ups each and every week.

@stoidi

 Easiest bet in a long ass time.  All Browns/Sanders backers cashed in big time

Easiest play in a long ass time.  Congrats to all 

@Ctownkb55

I meant to say he had little influence in the actual execution of the pick.  I do believe he influenced the "evaluating" of Sanders, but that means next to nothing if Pete Carroll already decided on Geno Smith being the long-term starter.  I also wanted the Raiders to pick Sanders and even Vegas had the Raiders as one of his landing spots when Sanders was seen socializing with Mark Davis.

You're right again though. Didn't consider the revenge angle at all.  My only issue with Browns 4.5 and the ML is the Oline is beyond trash, and Crosby could have a monster day which of course could lead to a handful of turnovers.  I feel most comfortable just banking on Sanders yds over and definitely Browns TT over.  Even if they get blown out and lose Sanders will rack up a fuckton of yds in garbage time and at least 10-14 pts as well during that period.

@Ctownkb55

Brady is a minority of a minority owner.  He didn't train Sanders he just gave him some private lessons when he was much younger.  The real connection is Sanders meeting and socializing with the Raider's actual owner before the draft and them passing on him.  However I will say I believe Pete Carroll and that new regime had way more of an influence than even the actual owner on whether to draft Sanders.  Brady had zero influence.

That said I agree with your bets.  I am hammering the following as a lock:  Browns TT 16.5 O, Sander 150yds O, and then sprinkling Browns +4.5 and Browns ML. 

If anyone is looking for a sure thing, it's Brown TT 16.5 O.  They could hit it before halftime.  Not going to find mispriced value like this often.  SLAM IT!

Sanders will ball out.  Best bet I see is actually Browns TT over.  Raiders will try to mimic Ravens plan of over-committing to the blitz and I am willing to bet Stefanski will adjust and Sanders will kill them with hot route after hot route and then over the top when the defense gets sick of getting burned. 

Could see the Browns winning decisively 36-14. 

I feel an urge to bet on the Browns ML and bet them asap before Vegas adjusts the lines moving forward.  This shit reminds me of Mahomes in '18 before Vegas adjusted the lines.  Back then you could have bet on the Chiefs and Mahomes every single game for like 8 straight weeks when he was torching the league week by week before Vegas and the sharp money adjusted. Not saying Sanders will torch the league, but that the Browns defense is very good, and Sanders is good enough that this team will easily beat the spreads Vegas will be setting for them right now, until of course, they adjust. I figure Browns will get at least 3-4 weeks before the lines stop being as favorable.  

This is, of course, assuming Sanders does not flame out like he did against the Ravens.  So to me this is a bet on if he can become the QB he has shown flashes of becoming back in Colorado, and his current very low perceived value to the betting public .

I will be hammering, Browns TT over, Browns +3.5 and Browns ML.

@theclaw

Holy F man, thanks for this!  I read this and then hammered all three Balt + Bills + Dolphins for a parley, and my god WOW!  I knew when I placed the bets how ugly the bet was, and that's what gave me fkn conviction it would pay, and of course, each game was by FAR the right side.   

@reffub

Other than Josh Allen, no other great QB has struggled early on.  Lamar NEVER posted the crap lines that Caleb and Bryce Young are posting.  The reason people doubted Lamar was because they couldn't believe his numbers, as in they thought they were outliers.  They were wrong and the longevity of Lamar has shut them up.  Caleb has no such problem. 

He is just trash.   You either have it or you don't.  It's brutally plain and obvious to anyone with eyes. 

Again Josh Allen was the exception but even Josh had a bazooka for an arm that would sail past everyone his first season and even he showed glimpses of greatness during that time.  Caleb shows so little it's almost bust time if he doesn't right the ship asap.

Caleb is trash.  Having watched every single Mahomes snap in his career including preseason, I can safely say Mahomes is the greatest QB prospect of all time and would have changed any organization in the league.  These Bears fans pretending the Chiefs were some paragon of an organization before Mahomes was drafted are sniffing glue!  The Chiefs were a dumpster fire of a franchise that like the Bears could never draft or develop a single QB in decades.  Yes, they had Grbac, Montana, and Gannon but none of those guys were drafted or developed by the Chiefs.  Yes, Andy Reid tremendously helped Mahomes but 90% of Mahomes magic cannot be taught and thus could have been applied to any fucking team. 

Only casuals think Mahomes is a system QB.  Mahomes is the antithesis of system QB.  He is the greatest QB in a vacuum of all-time and that was true back in 2018 when he threw for 5k and 50tds before his SB wins.  To suggest he would fail in Chicago just to prop up a bust in Caleb is hilarious. 

Caleb went to one of the greatest spots for a number 1 overall QB.  Despite that, he has the exact same stats as Bryce Young's first 9 games!!!  No excuses!  This dude is trash. 

"But..but...the OC is calling bad plays!" 

Give me a fkn break!

@football_007

 Wait they added Henry to the props section now but once again there is no bets for longest rush or longest reception unless I'm looking in the wrong areas

@football_007

No, Henry is nowhere to be found in the props section also they never have any of the longest rush or longest reception props either.  I fkn hate betonline.  I really need to change books.

@JimmyGape

Dude please.  Shanahan's ONLY flaw is that he REFUSES to adjust to his QB and instead forces the QB to adjust to him and his offensive philosophy.  This is the reason he brought Mahomes in for a private workout in 2017 but decided to draft Solomon Thomas and CJ Beathard instead!  This is the reason why he panicked when the media and fans started getting chippy about Jimmy garbage G and he moved up for the "athletic" kid bust with potential who could never learn his offense, to begin with.  It was a smoke and mirrors act to buy his coaching staff time to develop a project QB with potential.  Why?  Because Shanny's biggest flaw is the garbage unathletic QBs he forces his teams to use.  

Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Brain Hoyer, CJ Beathard, Nick Mullens, Jimmy G, Brock Purdy....

If this retard would take a chance on a Jayden Daniels-type QB, the Niners would have had 2 SB trophies under him by now.  Instead, he forces these garbage QBs like Jimmy G and Purdy to run his complicated offensive system that requires zero athleticism or QB talent to run.

I say all of that to say this; Purdy like Jimmy G ARE the problem, not Shanahan!

I have been a Niner faithful since Steve Young days.  I have seen nothing but garbage QBs play for the Niners since Jeff Garcia.  Kaepernick had a chance but he couldn't grow/evolve fast enough and was ultimately fool's gold.  Niner fans are sooo accustomed to garbage QB play that they actually think Purdy ISN'T the issue here!  LMAO.

So glad Purdy is getting ruthlessly exposed for the joke of a QB that he is.

....

I don't understand how why they aren't giving us a better line for the Bills 2H???  It's a 4 pt game and the Bills were getting 2.5 pts before kickoff.  Shouldn't we be getting the bills close to a PK?  Scumbags are refusing to let us hammer the Bills

@ActionMagnet

You say that as if they don't know that they're beaten and would rather have a flag than a wide-open TD.  In fact, I guarantee you DB coaches reiterate to hold and mug if the WR is getting the best of you.  On top of all that the officials do NOT call every hold so a lot of these aren't being seen.  Simply put I am shocked a seasoned gambler such as yourself knows such little football.

23.5 at my book.  What a joke.  

Look who Mahomes has had to throw to over the last 2 seasons...  It's absolute garbage other than Kelce.  Little to no running game yet still winning when it matters.  If any QB deserves the benefit of the doubt it's this dude.  Give him a true WR1 and he'll put up insane numbers like before.

You forgot Colorado and UCF.  UCF lost SU as 14 pt home fav.  

I respectfully disagree with your Falcons' pick.  Mahomes plays his best on the road and here he'll do it in a cushy dome.  Mahomes after playing trash always comes back harder than ever to prove to people he's still him.  On top of that Falcons are riding high off a fluke win where they played a team with ZERO pass rush.  KC DLine will feast on statue Cousins.  It would not surprise me if KC is up 3 TDs by halftime.   

For both teams, this is a look-ahead game with an out-of-conference foe, and where the following week they each play a division rival.  The difference is the Chiefs have no look-ahead games with their weak division rivals.  There are only 1-2 teams where they may look ahead but even that I doubt.  Meanwhile, after a fluke win, I don't see why the Falcons would give a crap about winning this game knowing they have the steamrolling Saints to look ahead to. 

This is a terrible spot for the Falcons and again I will be SHOCKED if they don't get blown out in this. How anyone can fade the Chiefs in this spot is crazy.

I'll start off my this new female Matlock!  So sick of these producers reinventing every single past show because they have ZERO creative talent and then changing the main characters to satisfy their DEI delusions.