NutinButtLove

I like the way Atlanta is playing and they are at home off a bye, but Josh Allen has played way more primetime games and he has won some too. Has Penix won any MNF or SNF games at all?

@Way2Good

 How was the chargers game a lucky win? They shut them out for 3 quarters!

You're an idiot. Just because you've never left your hometown probably don't even have a passport don't piss on other people's good time.

I moved to Europe and it's great to have a few games a year that actually start before dinnertime. The travel isn't that far it's 5 hours from the east coast so there's no excuse for teams to not be able to play next week it's shorter than going east to west coast 

I didn't like the increase to 17 games tho. 16 made sense with 32 teams.

Only word of caution it might be worth waiting until 6.45 when inactives are out to make sure Deebo is playing (questionable) id be surprised if he doesn't but if not the play would be possibly cancelled because McLaurin and Noah Brown are out too

Washington -4.5

Man it feels just like yesterday that Daniels hit that hail mary on the idiotic DB for the Bears.

Probably because I had the Bears that day.

Could they get revenge for that debacle? Maybe. But why would they? Have they improved vastly since then? No. They may have improved some, and they have played a tough schedule with good offenses, but they still give up the most yards per play on total defense and the most yards per carry on rush defense. So even if it's skewed by playing teams the top offenses, the only way to give them a chance would be if they were playing a bad offense.

Unfortunately though, the Commanders lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt per game on offense. Have you seen this rookie RB Croskey Merritt yet? Hes pretty good, and Daniels, after having a game to shake off some rust, can run too.

And shake off some rust he did, after the Commies fell behind by 10 he scored 27 points and the defense pitched a shutout vs Herbert and Conklin and Keenan Allen.

Lot of momentum coming back home now after two road games. They lost the game before that but Daniels was out, and the defense gave up a ton of yards to the Falcons. However they only lost by 1 TD and scored 27 on one of the highest performing defenses so far this season.

Washington is scoring a lot of points this year, and Chicago can score too, so i like this game to go over, but I'm gonna stick with Washington at home because they're the only team that has any defense. Bears have no pass rush (Was just sacked herbert 5 times) and they aren't the type of team that gets revenge. They're the type of team that gets owned because they find ways to lose. Ask Aaron Rodgers.

After that Hail Mary game the Commanders went on to upset the Lions in the playoffs on the road. Chicago probably couldn't dream of doing that. They are improving slightly but it's not come together yet and they aren't playing a team that can't take advantage of their weak defense they're playing the best rushing team in the NFL who hasn't allowed a point in the last 3 quarters and has a lot of magic with Daniels at the helm. Caleb... Not exactly magical just yet.

Didn't all 3 of you have the Lions? I know you did...

Not really feeling this game but I think the Chiefs are who I would pick. I feel like public opinion has shifted markedly to where they are down on the Chiefs and now just jumping on the bandwagon to fade them when the better times to fade them were... Basically all the games up to this point.

Not sure yet what to make of the Lions. Yes they have lots of weapons but their wins so far are vs thhe Browns Bears Ravens and Bengals what are those teams combined records?

2 years ago they went into KC and won in week 1. I don't know if they'll do it again even with KC being worse off this time around. I think they grab this one to not fall too far off the chargers and broncos in the division.

People have soured on the Chiefs and rightly so but I think they might be overvaluing Detroit who let's not forget got smoked by the Commanders at home in the playoffs last year they're perfectly capable of a clunker.

When are you gonna realize you suck at capping 49er games?

It's been going on for like 5 years bro. I don't agree with it but it's pretty simple and nothing to do with idiotic teasers.

You go for 2 and don't get it, you can still tie if you score again and go for it and get it

If you do get it, you can win the game with another TD and PAT

I don't like it but if you haven't noticed this yet you aren't watching much football this has been around now a while just like the whole going for it on every 4th down now

Bucs -3

When a backup QB gets a big win and everyone gets all excited and says 'maybe he should be the guy!' etc they usually don't follow it up with another one especially on the road. Baker and Co. are pretty legit they beat the Seahawks easily on the road and the Seahawks are beating the Jags now.

Bengals -13.5 -125

I have a theory that 14 point favorites in football and basketball seem to never cover but i like this spot for GB too much coming home off back to back road games where they have held two much better offenses Detroit and Washington under 20 points. They just played the best offense in the league now get the worst. Plus a bye week. Bengals have weapons at WR but no run game and Flacco literally just got there I can't see how this awful offense gets better now with him, he isn't very mobile. GB has an excellent pass defense at 2nd in ypa allowed.

Raiders -4.5

I always like to fade a bad team after they win a game. Unfortunately that means having to bet on the Raiders but the Titans literally did nothing last game the Cardinals gave them everything they got in a comedy of errors.

Im so good at jinxing myself. I knew they would get one today too and ofc it's on the first drive but they couldn't do much with it and only getting a FG is okay

Jets are the only NFL team that hasn't recorded a single takeaway.

Not a fan of taking a team where the backup won last time and plays again they usually don't shine so bright the next week but SF leads the NFL in passing so they do have a good system. I think a lot of that though is teams keying on their run game

Those are basically the 4 most disappointing teams of the last 3 seasons. You should throw the Jets in there for good measure.

 It definitely is, and the Jets have only lost by more than 7 twice out of 5 losses. But this is the best team they'll have played, and it's easier to cover that spread when the other team can't score and turns it over a lot.

I do hate taking teams as a favorite that won SU as a dog the week before. Especially with that TNF Giants game on deck last week was a better spot to take them.

But if you look at the season as a whole, you will make more money betting against the worst teams than doing anything else. I'm not going to suddenly start taking the worst team when they're playing one of the best. Most of my losses the last few years have been backdoor covers (like Army yesterday) and this season has been brutal for it with the most games ever that come down tonthe final possession or 2 minutes. But if I'm gonna be afraid of that with every bet on a favorite then i might as well quit altogether.

If they're down by more than 7 and have the ball I'll take Denver to get a pick or big sack rather than Fields to drive down on that D. Of course teams do go into prevent etc and refs love to extend the losing teams last drives with penalties and such but in games like this, international, games on Thanksgiving etc I like to take the team that is having a good year and has momentum rather than hope the bad team suddenly rises up and plays well.

The other thing about fading teams that stink is even if they do break out and win a game, they usually go right back to sucking after pulling an upset and you can just fade them again next week and make it back.

Well they will have to because they are playing a team that has a real chance at going to the actual Super Bowl. And to do that you don't drop games to winless teams no matter where it's played.

I'm typically wary of laying big spreads (NFL anything over 5.5 is a big spread IMO) in international games as they tend to be competitive. The travel (lot farther for Denver) combined with coming off a big win over the champs is another concern.

But, the Broncos are just a bad matchup for anyone without a good offense, as we saw last week. Now, everyone could see the Eagles werent that good this year winning games without offense, and not only did Denver expose them but it was confirmed when they gave the Giants only their 2nd home win between last season and this one.

And the Jets, while they are better on offense than the Eagles in yards, and they have only had 2 of their 5 losses be outside this spread, are 0-5 because they cannot finish games. They should have beat TB. They lost every close game because they have too many weaknesses. Unlike Philadelphia who is number 1 in red zone offense, the Jets are 18th. Denver is the top red zone defense and the Jets 16th.

The Broncos have the most sacks while the Jets have allowed the 4th most and 2nd most yards lost to sacks. Denver could do with improving their 21st ranked turnover margin per game, but the Jets are ranked dead last in that stat.

Broncos have no time for a letdown in London being in the tough AFC West and tied for 1st with the Chargers while the Jets can't win a game and will be the basement dwellers of the AFC East which is giving the NFC South a run for its money as the worst division in the NFL.

Aaron Glenn isn't a good coach and the Jets passing game is ranked down as low as Philadelphia, and are similarly bad on 3rd downs. they don't have a QB like Hurts who had 305 passes without a pick until recently, don't have reliable guys like Goedert for red zone, don't have tush push capabilities.

Perhaps getting out of NY will help the Jets finally get off the shnied, but despite a lot of parity in the NFL we have seen the worst teams often endure long losing streaks. Nobody wants to play Denver right now on any field.

The Broncos know how to finish games ranking 2nd in 2nd half points allowed while the Jets are giving up almost 2 TDs per game in the 2nd half. I doubt the Jets can play well enough for 4 quarters to beat a team like Denver, and with those 2nd half defensive stats a backdoor cover is less worrying. Fields is a garbage time king but I think Denver is a lot more likely to just heap more misery on the Jets than they are to suddenly come alive against a defense that just shut down an offense with similar stats but much better individual pieces, takes care of the ball better, allows less sacks and has a real winning pedigree which the Jets cannot say has been the case for a long time.

Capping MLB just off pitchers is a fool's errand. Seattle and Detroit were neck and neck in many important stats, it was always gonna be a coin flip, line told you that. M's had better home runs per at bat and stolen bases which Detroit was last in the league in, neither of those really mattered in game 5, everything else in stats they were literally placed just above or below each other, either team could have won.

Stefanski is a retard. If he didn't call two timeouts when the Vikings had guts tackled inboubds, in addition to calling that 3rd down throw, the Vikings would have probably had to settle for a FG with the time ticking down. 

Instead he set it up perfectly for them to have enough time to score a TD and leave no time on the clock anyway 

Moron of the highest order. Calling timeouts when the other team is losing in the last minute.

What? The last 3 games of the season the Dodgers scored 8 runs per game (1st in MLB over that stretch and 2nd on the season) and Phillies only 2 per game last 3 They're not the team with the hotter bats. Not saying they won't win but you're not correct there.