mollydog

Vladieee,

LOL..  At the end of the day, hopefully I’ve helped others here on Covers snag a few wins $$$$. 

Mollydog

Gang,

Sorry as I have been crazy busy and in between moving homes.

Messy, TVigilante2020, DCrunk022 and JJWoods, I wanted to thank you for the kind words in the recent posts. I appreciate you and hope that when I get on my lucky runs, you all won some $$$$$. I’m watching and cheering n each of you. 

- JJwoods, love your NFL posts and record, well done. 

- Otisxiii, Remarkable W/L record, I’m tailing your plays. 

- Skunty4, you sit at +86,020 as I type this YTD, I work my tail off and sit at +2,455. I am blessed and lucky to sneak out a couple contest wins here but I will never get your lines and I know when to say, I am learning from the master. Remarkable run, I am so impressed.

Vladieee,

I shared how I see lines moving offshore in a post here in the forums on Sept 23rd. I aim to be transparent and help anyone where I can. Let me be clear, to my knowledge, there is no way to manipulate the lines and no way to pick something after tipoff. The group here does a great job aligning with many of the US books but I’ve found out the majority of the line moves are triggered offshore. That does not guarantee winning at all, I just finished the baseball contest at -72,970, 3500th place out 3707 contest players. Sorry to those who follow me and completely embarrassed, but we will figure that sport out. 

I select arguably 100-200 picks daily, I cannot recall the one game you want to single out. There are rare occurrences when I lock in a play and don’t show for a while, for what that’s worth. I can 100% guarantee though that I can only select a play that is listed, there is no way to manipulate the site. 

Those who know me know I try to get in front of majority of the smart plays the moment the offshores move. But even the smarts miss, it does not guarantee any level of success. Heck, there’s people who’s system is to purposely fade the public and that have great success. That’s why they call it gambling. 

I wish you and everyone in this thread the best of luck. 

Mollydog 

Thanks all!!

Mollydog

Covers team,

Wanted to bring to your attention incorrect scoring on the Lindenwood/Charleston Southern game from last night 11/14. 

Final score was Lindenwood 83, Charleston Southern 77

Covers accidentally has Charleston Southern winning with the same score.

I’m sure this affected everyone’s Survivor and contest picks on Lindenwood (mine included). 

Thank you kindly 

Mollydog 

TVigilante,

Wish I could wrap my arms around that one. Baseball and Hockey seem to be my kryptonite. Lots of work to do here. Hoping to solve for them both in the near future.

Best of luck to ya….

Mollydog

JJ,

When I asked how I gain a line advantage, I am an open book. I shared the sites that show offshore line movement real-time, due to the smarts money. The real-time line movement monitor allows any average person the opportunity to leverage and grab lines before they move in many cases several points. Sorry that I tried to be honest and helpful and had you twist this into promoting a paid site discussion. I did not see that coming, but you obviously aimed to make this personal. For that, I’m not your guy. 

Being complete transparent, I then fade many “scamdicapper” free/recommended plays stemming from multiple sites. Lastly, I factor in plays and angles from many users here, from Brandydump1, Skunty04 to DeaconBlues2525, these are smarter players than I’ll ever be. I happily give credit where it is due. These members are real deal. Keep up the great work and pushing me. 

Take that recipe for what’s it’s worth, but that’s my approach in a nutshell. 

Please, to be clear, IMO, if you pay any site, service or scamdicapper a cent, this is not the hobby for you. That’s the one takeaway I would share.  

Wishing everyone the best of luck, let’s go….

Mollydog

JJ,

As a father of two and an average Joe in Central Ohio, I have built, through research, trial and many errors, a strategy and practice I put in to cracking the Bookie/Vegas armor. Sometimes it works, though still terribly inconsistent, some times it fails. I enjoy the challenge. On this site alone, I believe I have helped many out. I wish everyone here luck, the odds and juice are against you. 

I’ve said on several posts prior, including the response on this thread, I leverage the offshore line movements in grabbing the line early, or if your allegiance is on the other side, waiting and letting the line work for you. I also factor dozens of scamdicapper free picks to fade plays they “want you to play”.  

I shared the sites that I personally use to see offshore line changes to give everyone the opportunity to gauge where the smart money is going. Ultimately, the smarts win more than lose, but it’s not bulletproof. I’m an embarrassing (-75k) in baseball units this year, that why they call it gambling. 

You spun it that I was potentially promoting pay sites, which, I assure you, would never, ever be the case. I was answering the question as to how I jump the line trends. So much for honesty and trying to help. IMO, if you pay for someone’s plays, this definitely isn’t the hobby for you.

Listen, regarding the “standing up for good guys here” quote, I’m not here to make friends, that’s another site. But I’m definitely not here to make enemies, that’s also another site. My hope is to be more consistent and help others win $$$ if that is there shtick. 

I joined this site in ‘08 the day our dog passed, thus the name Mollydog.
My regards to Harry. My in-laws own a farm here in Ohio and swear by their GSP.

All the best

Mollydog 

Thanks JJ…..

All,

Like I said, there is always one hater in the bunch. Never fails, no matter how you aim to help those inquiring. I relayed sites that simply share real-time offshore line movements as the vehicle that can be leveraged to give you the point spread edge. Has absolutely nothing to do with any paid services. I’ve never given a soul a penny. Good Lord, can’t make this stuff up.

So much for honesty, always one soul out there trying to cause a scene. All that said, best of luck everyone, let’s keep on winning. 

Mollydog

 Messy,

Spot on and well laid out. The worst time to make selections are the day of the game. Most of the value has been sucked out of the opening numbers by then. My philosophy is to typically play with the smart money early. If you disagree with the line momentum and movement and want to play the other team, the best strategy is to wait until kickoff. This locks in the most advantageous line on that other team.

OMRebel,

If you know in advance who your backing, there are sites like Freeplays, Wagertalk or even VegasInsider showing real-time lines and line movement from multiple sources (Vegas, offshore etc). The real-time line moves give you an edge on seeing where the lines are moving before they impact the Covers or the US Sportsbooks. The line moves don’t guarantee winners, but it helps on insight to who the smarts are loading up on. Let them do the work.

In the end, you still need a lot of luck IMO. Best of luck to you….

Mollydog

DeaconBlues,

Well written. I get a kick of the “Mollydog works for Covers” conspiracy.

I’ve always respected your record and selections, now I have a greater respect for the person. Your cancer free mention in your post literally just made my day. I lost both my parents in their 50s and I pray it never rears its ugly head for you again. 

JJ, no matter what I do, I’m always going to have a few doubters. I’ve had a great run on this site and have, knock on wood, never once lost $1 at any of my rare casino/sportsbook visits. I can only hope my streak doesn’t run dry. That said, Wishing you the very best of luck. Let’s go….

Regarding the best lines 98% of the time, I grab some early when the offshore lines jump and wait on others where I am fading Joe Public. I feel the percentage where I gain line value is more like 80%, but that matters over hundreds of selections. Ultimately, you still have to pick the winning side. Look at my MLB and NFL records this year, they’re flat out awful. I always challenge myself to be more consistent and help everyone watching gain an advantage. I still have a lot of work to do here.

Noted some sites that I frequent below to monitor line movement real-time and hopefully get ahead of the casinos and books.

Offshore line movements shown real-time: freeplays.com relay line moves is real time. 
Line movements and bets tracking, by book or casino: WagerTalk.com/odds
Handicapper free picks: freeplays.com and randrtotals.com are two of my faves for free picks. Some of the cappers listed NEVER give a winning play, some occasionally. Knowing each of their records and history helps me with deciding my leans and picks. 

Again, I hope my crazy efforts help win some of you $$$. Good luck…

DeaconBlues, keep up the tremendous work. 

Mollydog

Chuluckus,

Peek @ FreePlays.com line moves or Vegasinsider.com to monitor the offshore odds before they hit the US market. Offshore is what makes the sportsbook market wheel spin. 

Also, plenty of free pick scamdicapper sites out there where you can monitor the free picks and assist with your leans/plays: betfirms.com, freeplays.com, sportsmemo.com, wagertalk.com and randrtotals.com. There are free play handicappers that never give a winning play as they want your $$$.

All of the sites above play a role in where I believe the lines will start/finish. I’m not always right, but if its more times than not, we chip away at the house 10% vig advantage. This has always been my philosophy. 

All that said, I still fail mightily versus skunty04, Deaconblues2525 and Brandydump1. All rock stars in my book.

Hope that my efforts assist some of you in beating up your books.

Mollydog

Honestly, I’ll take the Covers Insider and Staff member as a compliment. Just hope my lucky plays are allowing some of you to tail and win big.

I don’t always get em right (look at my embarrassing debacle of a baseball season), but If I can help a few players here, it’s made my day. 

Plus, I’m looking up at DeaconBlues, Skunty4, Bradydump1 and Genghis518. These players are rock stars. Keep up the great work.

Okay, as I’ve posted previously in the thread, with the research I do, I have covers, I have multiple handicapper free picks sites and I have real time offshore odds movement sites up on my home laptop back in Ohio. 

I travel extensively for my job. Last week in NY/NJ, this week in Boston. I am responding and making selections remotely from my cell. I don’t typically logout on my home laptop before traveling. I believe that is the only possible explanation.

PlusOdds, please reread this explanation a few times so you can move on and start winning yourself. Im trying to be considerate and cordial, but the continuous assumptions, accusations and complaining are very disappointing.

Mollydog 

Plus,

There is no “second account”, there is no “inside job” and as Covers just confirmed, you cannot make a selection after tipoff. Regarding your login item, again, I am as computer illiterate as they come, so for what it’s worth: Because I always have Covers open on my phone and tablet, my possible thought here is if you don’t completely logout, for some reason, it’s not updating the login dates. That’s an educated guess from a very non-technical person. I make my picks early and late when the lines move every day. I enjoy and spend a boatload of time on this site when I get breaks with my day job. 

As I shared earlier, I watch multiple sites with real time offshore line movements, leverage public moneys, not to mention players on this site who always do well. Bundinibrown jumped in, I been tailing him/her for NHL total picks the last few years!!
Ultimately, I’ve done ALOT of homework to try and beat the books. I mean ALOT, probably more than my wife would want to acknowledge. 

That said, I can tell you how nearly 60-70 handicappers with daily free picks have fared this year. I track them too. I typically know exactly who I’m backing and fading, then I look where the offshore lines are heading and I play them early or late depending on if I am backing or against the public.
Funny part, I’m still down over $30k YTD and down $50k in hardball. So, you’re faring better than I. Ultimately, you still have to be on the winning side. Even all the research does not guarantee success.

Those who tail me, I hope I assisted in winning you all $$$$. Those who don’t, best of luck to you. I hope you push me to get better and smarter. 

Flynt, 

Dont know who you are, but thanks for following through. There are a couple people convinced we’re best friends and working together. I had to reset everything to relog back in today.
As I mentioned earlier, you all do a great job on this site. There’s not another site like it.
Also, reading Bundini’s post, please don’t put anyone in the penalty box unless there was more to the story/exchange. We all play here to challenge ourselves, gain insight and leverage the best people/plays to close the gap versus the books. 

Sincerely

Mollydog

Viper,

Much appreciated. Atop of the opening/real-time line sites I shared in this thread, if you google free sports handicapper picks and monitor their plays, you get a pretty good grasp around “what they want you to play”. Once you know who the handiscammers are, they are typically a springboard for me to fade. Hope you tailed the 2 “plays against the public money I shared yesterday”. Best of luck to you.

Plus,

Despite the childish name calling and accusations, which I don’t feel warranted a response, I honestly and sincerely hope you won big $$$$ last night with both public fades I shared with you. I tried. Best of luck to you as well. 

Mollydog

PlusOdds,

I typically don’t post because I just don’t have the time, but appreciate your concern, respectfully. As I mentioned a couple years ago, I am a dad out of Ohio who enjoys sports and am as computer illiterate as they get. That said, I have used a system here after years of research to help me get the best lines I can get. I don’t always win, I’m over 50k to the negative in MLB this season (LOL), but try to stay consistent based off the system I’ve pulled together. Hopefully, I’ve helped a handful of you who tail me win some money. If that has occurred, I’ve done good.

The Covers team does a tremendous job on this site. The second games are scheduled to start, the games are auto removed. There is no possible way to make a selection after the scheduled game time. I’ve been a long time member and enjoy entering picks throughout the day based on a couple points including line moves, public money, handicappers (or for some, scammers) free picks and even tailing some of the legends on this site. All of which make my selections pretty easy. That said, there are several sites that show opening lines and movement days in advance. That helps me  make an educated guess on where the lines are heading. From there, either you grab them early or you wait it out if you’re on the other side (versus the public money). This does not guarantee success at any level. You still need to be on the winning side. If you believe the “wise guys”, who move the lines, win every night in Vegas, they are flat out lying to you.

Going back to line movement, there are several sites showing opening versus real-time lines. Vegas insider, even ESPN now offers it. You can track exactly where the lines are heading and get in front of them if you wish. The fact that I factor in Vegas Handicappers “free picks” is another element of the equation. Today, as an example, majority of the Vegas cappers Free picks are on Miami in MLB and the over in Phoenix in the W. I will wait on both their lines to move and go strongly against the public. On those games, I wait for the lines to move in my favor, then go against public money. I’ve already nabbed their under in Phoenix at it’s peak and I will be backing the Braves to upset the Marlins tonight but I’ll wait as all the Miami money keeps pouring in.

Again, I try to identify Vegas line errors and Vegas cappers who target those with losing picks daily. Why would any professional capper give out winners for Free? Think about it. It’s had a pretty good track record of success, but there are sports I can’t ever seem to crack. I just hope I’ve helped a handful of you who have backed me win some $$$$$.

Mollydog

Andrew981711, Vondokken and PTBradford, kudos to each of you. Consistent throughout, but that’s the way you finish. Each of you got on a seriously roll late to place in the money.

Congratulations!!! 

Gang,

As stated, Covers has pivoted the leaderboard displayed to reflect the playoff contest. All the conference Tournaments, some began a couple weeks ago, automatically rolled to everyone's playoff contest record. Many may not have noticed this because Covers kept the regular season leaderboard as the default until this past weekend.

Congrats to XTC310XTC, Greencapper, Judge Smails (great name), Reeker12 and Webba for a remarkably successful regular season. The fact that XTC310XTC and Reeker12 are the top 2 cappers on this site for all sports combined, I feel quite fortunate to be in this elite company. Webba, the GOAT, continues his mastery. Enough said (dropped the mic).  

Best of luck to everyone in the playoffs/tournament

Mollydog

Mctrap,

Watching the line updates yesterday afternoon 3/8, there was about a 2 hour window from 230-430pm EST where all point spreads went to 0, game totals remained correct. I actually missed the NC State/Clemson 430 tip because it didn't seem right to hop on an error this extensive (totaled about 50 game spreads over yesterday and today until it was corrected). In all, by checking the consensus picks when they made the corrections, well over 100 players loaded up on the favorites in that time span/window. Figured the Covers team would void the +0s, because it may effect the playoffs leaderboard, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Pakingfish,

You are mostly correct. I watch the early line movements and typically lean where the smart money is taking it. They know a hell of a lot more than I ever will. Siding with the wise guys is typical for me, but not always the case. I played several teams/totals minutes ago where I disagreed with the line movers. I take them later in the day, allowing the lines to drift into my favor (example: High Point +7) which opened at +5.5 this morning. I simply waited it out to max the line advantage. As you can see by my years of negative units, it hasn't fared me well (LOL), but the last two years in NCAAB have been the exception. 

JoeBatters,

Thanks for the mention and great job killing it in the NFL contest this year (13th overall). You've had several solid successful seasons in a very challenging sport to 'cap. You got this thing in '22.  

XTC310XTC

"We're not worthy, We're not worthy"..  I appreciate the post. Between your top overall finish in all sports combined last season and you're run at repeating the same honor this year, you have set the bar unbelievably high. It hasn't gone unnoticed. Flat out impressive and ridiculous results. Congratulations and best of luck moving forward. 

Mollydog