mollydog

DeaconBlues,

Well written. I get a kick of the “Mollydog works for Covers” conspiracy.

I’ve always respected your record and selections, now I have a greater respect for the person. Your cancer free mention in your post literally just made my day. I lost both my parents in their 50s and I pray it never rears its ugly head for you again. 

JJ, no matter what I do, I’m always going to have a few doubters. I’ve had a great run on this site and have, knock on wood, never once lost $1 at any of my rare casino/sportsbook visits. I can only hope my streak doesn’t run dry. That said, Wishing you the very best of luck. Let’s go….

Regarding the best lines 98% of the time, I grab some early when the offshore lines jump and wait on others where I am fading Joe Public. I feel the percentage where I gain line value is more like 80%, but that matters over hundreds of selections. Ultimately, you still have to pick the winning side. Look at my MLB and NFL records this year, they’re flat out awful. I always challenge myself to be more consistent and help everyone watching gain an advantage. I still have a lot of work to do here.

Noted some sites that I frequent below to monitor line movement real-time and hopefully get ahead of the casinos and books.

Offshore line movements shown real-time: freeplays.com relay line moves is real time. 
Line movements and bets tracking, by book or casino: WagerTalk.com/odds
Handicapper free picks: freeplays.com and randrtotals.com are two of my faves for free picks. Some of the cappers listed NEVER give a winning play, some occasionally. Knowing each of their records and history helps me with deciding my leans and picks. 

Again, I hope my crazy efforts help win some of you $$$. Good luck…

DeaconBlues, keep up the tremendous work. 

Mollydog

Chuluckus,

Peek @ FreePlays.com line moves or Vegasinsider.com to monitor the offshore odds before they hit the US market. Offshore is what makes the sportsbook market wheel spin. 

Also, plenty of free pick scamdicapper sites out there where you can monitor the free picks and assist with your leans/plays: betfirms.com, freeplays.com, sportsmemo.com, wagertalk.com and randrtotals.com. There are free play handicappers that never give a winning play as they want your $$$.

All of the sites above play a role in where I believe the lines will start/finish. I’m not always right, but if its more times than not, we chip away at the house 10% vig advantage. This has always been my philosophy. 

All that said, I still fail mightily versus skunty04, Deaconblues2525 and Brandydump1. All rock stars in my book.

Hope that my efforts assist some of you in beating up your books.

Mollydog

Honestly, I’ll take the Covers Insider and Staff member as a compliment. Just hope my lucky plays are allowing some of you to tail and win big.

I don’t always get em right (look at my embarrassing debacle of a baseball season), but If I can help a few players here, it’s made my day. 

Plus, I’m looking up at DeaconBlues, Skunty4, Bradydump1 and Genghis518. These players are rock stars. Keep up the great work.

Okay, as I’ve posted previously in the thread, with the research I do, I have covers, I have multiple handicapper free picks sites and I have real time offshore odds movement sites up on my home laptop back in Ohio. 

I travel extensively for my job. Last week in NY/NJ, this week in Boston. I am responding and making selections remotely from my cell. I don’t typically logout on my home laptop before traveling. I believe that is the only possible explanation.

PlusOdds, please reread this explanation a few times so you can move on and start winning yourself. Im trying to be considerate and cordial, but the continuous assumptions, accusations and complaining are very disappointing.

Mollydog 

Plus,

There is no “second account”, there is no “inside job” and as Covers just confirmed, you cannot make a selection after tipoff. Regarding your login item, again, I am as computer illiterate as they come, so for what it’s worth: Because I always have Covers open on my phone and tablet, my possible thought here is if you don’t completely logout, for some reason, it’s not updating the login dates. That’s an educated guess from a very non-technical person. I make my picks early and late when the lines move every day. I enjoy and spend a boatload of time on this site when I get breaks with my day job. 

As I shared earlier, I watch multiple sites with real time offshore line movements, leverage public moneys, not to mention players on this site who always do well. Bundinibrown jumped in, I been tailing him/her for NHL total picks the last few years!!
Ultimately, I’ve done ALOT of homework to try and beat the books. I mean ALOT, probably more than my wife would want to acknowledge. 

That said, I can tell you how nearly 60-70 handicappers with daily free picks have fared this year. I track them too. I typically know exactly who I’m backing and fading, then I look where the offshore lines are heading and I play them early or late depending on if I am backing or against the public.
Funny part, I’m still down over $30k YTD and down $50k in hardball. So, you’re faring better than I. Ultimately, you still have to be on the winning side. Even all the research does not guarantee success.

Those who tail me, I hope I assisted in winning you all $$$$. Those who don’t, best of luck to you. I hope you push me to get better and smarter. 

Flynt, 

Dont know who you are, but thanks for following through. There are a couple people convinced we’re best friends and working together. I had to reset everything to relog back in today.
As I mentioned earlier, you all do a great job on this site. There’s not another site like it.
Also, reading Bundini’s post, please don’t put anyone in the penalty box unless there was more to the story/exchange. We all play here to challenge ourselves, gain insight and leverage the best people/plays to close the gap versus the books. 

Sincerely

Mollydog

Viper,

Much appreciated. Atop of the opening/real-time line sites I shared in this thread, if you google free sports handicapper picks and monitor their plays, you get a pretty good grasp around “what they want you to play”. Once you know who the handiscammers are, they are typically a springboard for me to fade. Hope you tailed the 2 “plays against the public money I shared yesterday”. Best of luck to you.

Plus,

Despite the childish name calling and accusations, which I don’t feel warranted a response, I honestly and sincerely hope you won big $$$$ last night with both public fades I shared with you. I tried. Best of luck to you as well. 

Mollydog

PlusOdds,

I typically don’t post because I just don’t have the time, but appreciate your concern, respectfully. As I mentioned a couple years ago, I am a dad out of Ohio who enjoys sports and am as computer illiterate as they get. That said, I have used a system here after years of research to help me get the best lines I can get. I don’t always win, I’m over 50k to the negative in MLB this season (LOL), but try to stay consistent based off the system I’ve pulled together. Hopefully, I’ve helped a handful of you who tail me win some money. If that has occurred, I’ve done good.

The Covers team does a tremendous job on this site. The second games are scheduled to start, the games are auto removed. There is no possible way to make a selection after the scheduled game time. I’ve been a long time member and enjoy entering picks throughout the day based on a couple points including line moves, public money, handicappers (or for some, scammers) free picks and even tailing some of the legends on this site. All of which make my selections pretty easy. That said, there are several sites that show opening lines and movement days in advance. That helps me  make an educated guess on where the lines are heading. From there, either you grab them early or you wait it out if you’re on the other side (versus the public money). This does not guarantee success at any level. You still need to be on the winning side. If you believe the “wise guys”, who move the lines, win every night in Vegas, they are flat out lying to you.

Going back to line movement, there are several sites showing opening versus real-time lines. Vegas insider, even ESPN now offers it. You can track exactly where the lines are heading and get in front of them if you wish. The fact that I factor in Vegas Handicappers “free picks” is another element of the equation. Today, as an example, majority of the Vegas cappers Free picks are on Miami in MLB and the over in Phoenix in the W. I will wait on both their lines to move and go strongly against the public. On those games, I wait for the lines to move in my favor, then go against public money. I’ve already nabbed their under in Phoenix at it’s peak and I will be backing the Braves to upset the Marlins tonight but I’ll wait as all the Miami money keeps pouring in.

Again, I try to identify Vegas line errors and Vegas cappers who target those with losing picks daily. Why would any professional capper give out winners for Free? Think about it. It’s had a pretty good track record of success, but there are sports I can’t ever seem to crack. I just hope I’ve helped a handful of you who have backed me win some $$$$$.

Mollydog

Andrew981711, Vondokken and PTBradford, kudos to each of you. Consistent throughout, but that’s the way you finish. Each of you got on a seriously roll late to place in the money.

Congratulations!!! 

Gang,

As stated, Covers has pivoted the leaderboard displayed to reflect the playoff contest. All the conference Tournaments, some began a couple weeks ago, automatically rolled to everyone's playoff contest record. Many may not have noticed this because Covers kept the regular season leaderboard as the default until this past weekend.

Congrats to XTC310XTC, Greencapper, Judge Smails (great name), Reeker12 and Webba for a remarkably successful regular season. The fact that XTC310XTC and Reeker12 are the top 2 cappers on this site for all sports combined, I feel quite fortunate to be in this elite company. Webba, the GOAT, continues his mastery. Enough said (dropped the mic).  

Best of luck to everyone in the playoffs/tournament

Mollydog

Mctrap,

Watching the line updates yesterday afternoon 3/8, there was about a 2 hour window from 230-430pm EST where all point spreads went to 0, game totals remained correct. I actually missed the NC State/Clemson 430 tip because it didn't seem right to hop on an error this extensive (totaled about 50 game spreads over yesterday and today until it was corrected). In all, by checking the consensus picks when they made the corrections, well over 100 players loaded up on the favorites in that time span/window. Figured the Covers team would void the +0s, because it may effect the playoffs leaderboard, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Pakingfish,

You are mostly correct. I watch the early line movements and typically lean where the smart money is taking it. They know a hell of a lot more than I ever will. Siding with the wise guys is typical for me, but not always the case. I played several teams/totals minutes ago where I disagreed with the line movers. I take them later in the day, allowing the lines to drift into my favor (example: High Point +7) which opened at +5.5 this morning. I simply waited it out to max the line advantage. As you can see by my years of negative units, it hasn't fared me well (LOL), but the last two years in NCAAB have been the exception. 

JoeBatters,

Thanks for the mention and great job killing it in the NFL contest this year (13th overall). You've had several solid successful seasons in a very challenging sport to 'cap. You got this thing in '22.  

XTC310XTC

"We're not worthy, We're not worthy"..  I appreciate the post. Between your top overall finish in all sports combined last season and you're run at repeating the same honor this year, you have set the bar unbelievably high. It hasn't gone unnoticed. Flat out impressive and ridiculous results. Congratulations and best of luck moving forward. 

Mollydog

Gang,

Anyone who mentioned following me and that I have hopefully helped on this years run, apologies for going absolutely ice cold over the last couple weeks. There is a reason I have never finished a full season here positive (all sports combined). I'm working on it. Honestly, thats why they call it gambling. The system and the juice sets you up to lose over time and I've fallen prey time and time again.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am the furthest thing from a "computer programmer" or "hacker". My wife got a kick out of that thought though, since I am only dangerous enough to effectively power my Apple Mac on and off. I am a big sports fan with a degree in statistics. So, having a pretty good feel for the numbers comes naturally. Now, with that said, that and $2 gets me a large cup of coffee at the corner cafe.

Seriously though, there are sites that update real-time line movements both globally and in the Vegas markets that I lean on heavily to be proactive and not reactive to the numbers. Allowing you to see the trends and movement real time everywhere. It's tedious, but I am committed to giving this a gentlemen's try while sitting here working through the pandemic. Targeting to get a solid line majority of the time on who your backing. That though, does not translate into wins. That just helps in a game that where the line comes down to the buzzer.  You still need to fall on the winning side. Hopefully, with a lot of luck, one of these years I just might finish with positive units (LOL). 

For those that win every year on Covers, which are a very select few on this site, (like Yisman and Webba) my hats off. They are more machine than men, and that is a compliment. I still do not know how they do it. I'm swinging with a David versus Goliath approach to compete. I am overwhelmed every Saturday as a 1 man show, trying to gather data and hit all the websites I use to compile my sides and totals. Don't think I've finished a Saturday positive all season yet.

Im not one to give out pregame picks, but lets follow a couple I personally like so I can share how I get the line to typically work for me. I like the under in Southern Illinois tonight (NCAAB). Opened overnight at 122 all night, went to 123/123.5 offshore an hour ago. I like the under in the Brown game, opened at 147.5 and instantly got bumped up to 149, now pushing 150. I didn't select either, but I will. Both delayed picks for me. Let the lines move in the opposite direction. There are other selections I grab in the morning when they begin moving offshore. When the Vegas market action picks up, between 8-930 am EST, the lines align with the smart player money. I'm typically on those early moves if I agree with their action. Timing and luck have been the only recipe I've had a glimmer of success with to stay close to the Webba's of the world (Finished Top 5 in 6 of the last 12 years in the NCAAB Covers contest). 

Don't need to ramble on, got games to pick and things to do. Just wish everyone in the thread here the best of luck and success.

Mollydog

EzMoney777,

Picks, Consensus Picks, League Money Leaders. From there you can choose your user and it will show history. You can even break it down by sport if you wish. 

To your point, and in my post on the 11th, there are some serious experts on this site. Yisman, Webba and TMarsh21 all have amazing results year in and year out. Love to know what they do and how they continually find success. They make it look easy, where I have worked my tail off to threaten in a specific sport on a rare season that I get on a roll in. That said, I hope to keep the recent momentum I’ve found in hoops this season (finished 6th in WNBA, still picking in the NBA and NCAAB). I’ve lost my shirt over the last week, but am committed to seeing this season through while I have still have some time to focus on it and figure it out. Plus, with XTC310 and Webba in the top 5, no lead is safe IMO. 

LouieDaLip,

I begin breaking down the lines the moment they are released. If the smart money begins moving the number, it’s a quick play or we wait it out to go against the public. Today alone I waited on a handful of plays until late in the day, allowing the lines to max in my favor. Rhode Island +1 and Kansas St +14 are two we waited on to have the line swing several points in our favor. I’ve had a boatload of misses as well. In the Top 5 tonight, I have the absolute worst number on Michigan St. 

It’s a lot of work with the quest for a lot of luck. Fingers crossed I can continue and end the year positive in units. That would be a first.

Mollydog

OLL5,

Congratulations on the Survivor success in June. Well done. I hope you get things straightened out on the prize end of things. Last year I contacted the "contact Us"# and Colin was awesome in assisting with a prize. Good luck.

MP2056 and EZMoney77,

Appreciate the posts and wish you both the best of luck. MP, I've been blessed to work in sales for a solid company for nearly 30 years. I typically travel, but the pandemic has me working currently from home. This change, albeit temporary, has allowed me to focus on finding some success here. On a great run, but mind you, it's been done before. Webba finished +100k in the NCAAB 2018 season contest. I can only hope to keep the recent momentum, push that record and help a few players along the way.   

Mollydog

MP2056,

Appreciate the kind words. I'm anything but an insider though (LOL). If you look at the 10+ years on the site, I'd go broke 50 times over. I've just been fortunate to recently work from home over the pandemic period and commit some time into finding some luck and successes. I watched this sites leaders a long time (Webba, Yisman, TMarsh21), who are far more successfully year in and year out then I'll ever be. With that said, I have committed myself to get in front of line moves and have them work for me. That is not always the case, tonight alone, I have several plays I missed before they jumped or dipped. In addition, if I don't like a team everyone is backing (USC versus Stanford tonight), I wait out the line moves until they max out and try to nab the line at it's peak (Stanford opened +4, I waited until it hit +6.5 to play them). Yes, I have too much free time.

Anyway, as I stated in my earlier post, if I can help one player out with a win or two, I've done something good. I wish you success in a field/hobby setup to have you lose. 

Tvigilante2020/gang,

Want to take a minute and thank you for the kudos and the write up.

KempDunkLister/McTrap, I appreciate the specific details in reviewing the numbers and results.

I know there are professionals, experts, casual and beginning players on this site. Several names of those, with a history success, are mentioned in this thread. In a field/hobby constructed to benefit the house (odds are in their favor), I hope my efforts help someone make some $$$ and appreciate it. 

Happy New Year and best of luck..

Mollydog

Congratulations Soun, one heck of a run...... 

Congrats Lionsfan24.. Awesome run, well done..... 

Jon Rahm

Justin Thomas

Dustin Johnson

Jordan Spieth

-12

GL all,  Mollydog

Good Luck all...

Round 1:

Virginia, Creighton, Purdue, Villanova, Kansas, Texas, West Virginia and Ohio State