jasondemz

Take the UNDER. Rock solid for this game

It further supports the narrative that a huge underdog literally won last week on Thursday night. 2 weeks in a row. I doubt it. Eagles -8

I do not know why anyone would be on the Giants +7.5 with the Eagles coming in off of a loss. It was a flat spot last week for the Eagles coming off of 4 straight emotional wins and then playing a non-conference opponent (Denver). 

The Eagles will be very focused for this game and the Giants do not have the firepower needed to cover this spread. No Nabers, no shot. 

The Eagles will win in a blowout. Barkley will go off in this game because the Giants run defense is garbage. 

Also, I expect Brown will get a touchdown or 2 this game. The environment is conducive for a blowout. 

The Giants just had their upset at home 2 weeks ago against the Chargers. It is not happening again in such a short time frame.

Furthermore, a little tidbit. There has only been 1 favorite that covered on Thursday night football. (Green Bay vs. Washington in week 2). The favorite is due to cover on Thursday night. It happens here. 

Remember the last time Philly was a division favorite vs. Dallas on Thursday night to open the season. They did not cover. This time they do and rather easily. 

Tackle Lane Johnson was limited in practice on Wednesday however CB#2 Adore Johnson will probably be out for Philly this game. I definitely could see the OVER hitting in this game as well. 

Philly coming off of 4 straight emotional games that they won vs. Dallas on banner night, at KC, vs. Rams (blocked FG) and then beating their kryptonite at Tampa Bay. Now they come home and play Denver who has a top 5 defense with an elite secondary and a top 7 run defense. On offense, Denver can expose Philly's #2 and #3 corners with speedsters Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin deep. Philly's offensive line is banged up with Lane possibly out this week. Add to the fact that Philly plays a divisional game on Thursday against the NY Giants. (short week vs. division opponent). Why would Philly get up for a non-conference opponent that actually matches up quite well against them. Take a healthy Denver Broncos team against an exhausted Philly team. Take Denver +4 and sprinkle something decent on the ML. Denver is much better than that 2-2 record shows. They were robbed with that FG in Indy with that bogus call. They should have been 3-1. 

I like most of your picks but I do question 2 of them:

The Browns seem like a hot mess. Despite Cincinnatti's horrible defense, I think they simply outscore Flacco, who has limitations on the offensive side of the ball. They lack talent on offense. I think Cincinatti covers by a TD. This sets up perfectly to bet against Cincy the following week when they are a decent sized home favorite against Jacksonville, who at least has the ability to stay close with some of the talent on offense that they have.

I also question Seattle. Darnold is now under a coaching tree that is not Minnesota. The team is devoid of talent especially that Metcalf left to Pittsburgh. Not sure if Seattle has a new coach as well. Something to factor in. San Francisco has a veteran coach with a top 15 team that has a short road line. I think they cover by a field goal or more in this spot.

I would bet against San Franciso the following week when they are a big road favorite against New Orleans playing the 2nd of back to back home games while San Francisco will be in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle in week 1 and Arizona in week 3. They will be caught looking ahead in week 2 which translates to taking New Orleans with the heavy home underdog line. 

All others look good. Just my feedback. Thanks.

Best play on board for week 1 is Jax - 3. 

The 3 big concerns for Denver. I am a Broncos fan since 1985. #1 is by far my biggest. It's their WRs. They can't get no SEPARATION. They don't have a shifty slot receiver. Sutton is really a high end #2 not a #1. Mims / Franklin are go route wide receivers although Mims is improving his route tree. Vele as a #2 is another slightly smaller Sutton. He is a solid 3rd down target. We will see with rookie Pat Bryant. This group needs a shifty cut on the dime receiver like Tyreek and a true alpha #1. I wanted that guy from Pitt that went to Dallas or that WR that resigned with Tampa. Either could have complemented Sutton well. #2 is Engrams health as well as Greenlaw. #3 is the run defense. Do we have enough girth upfront to keep the holes plugged. Did we do enough in the off season to address the center of our defensive line? Not so sure. 

Just need the under to hit now

Bradley Cooper is pumped

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/eagles-vs-rams-nfc-divisional-nfl-playoff-everything-to-know%3famp

@RXistrash

 The Eagles / Rams game was on NBC/ Peacock

I just placed a prop bet parlay $125 that pays out $1625. The prop bet is the following:

1.) Under 48.5

2.) Philly+1.5

3.) Mahomes over 23 completions

4.) Goedert over 6 receptions

5.) Goedert over 53.5 receiving yards

By the way, Walterfootball.com just put their prediction today. Final score: Philly 23 KC 20. (How ironic and identical to my prediction)

Eagles have the better 3rd down defense by a country mile. That is your difference in this Superbowl aside from the fact that Kansas City is horrific at covering TE's. Eagles will extend drives, win time of possession, and use Dallas Goedert a whole lot. 

@jasondemz

 Oh and if you want a player prop..take TE Dallas Goedert - He is going to have over 6 receptions and 100 yards and a TD in this game. Put $100 down on that player parlay. Everyone focusing on Barkley or AJ Brown or Devonte Smith....NOPE....Dallas Goedert is going off this game. Might even be the MVP. Was there ever a TE as an MVP. You just might see that this game. 

@tjones1270

 You keep on mentioning historical information. Well, I have one for you. Recently, for the Superbowl, the team that played MORE playoff games is 9-0 SU and ATS as opposed to the team that played less playoff games in a given season. 

Example: The Eagles did not have a bye. They played 3 playoff games so far this year. The Chiefs played 2 games because they had the BYE as being the #1 seed. Therefore, based on this historical trend, the Eagles will win and cover. 

Don Juan feels the same way as well! Huge. 

I just saw total dip to 49 from 49.5. This triggered me to make the bet now. I couldn't wait until next Sunday.

Feel strong about a straight up Philly win here but honestly the way this season has went, it would not surprise me at all if KC won by exactly 1 point. (not more)

To avoid a push on the spread, I pulled the trigger.

Eagles +1.5 and Under 49 .........$1186 to win $3130.

Done. 

@maxwagers781

 Either KC wins by exactly 1 point (not more) or Eagles win Superbowl. 

@tjones1270

 All things including trends usually come to an end. In my case, I look at this as entertainment. The TV stations are in on the betting stuff along with the NFL and Vegas. It is too lucrative to not be the case. If I am looking at this from an X's and O's perspective, Philly has the advantage in the trenches and playing against a Fangio defense means less big plays for KC. Same on the other side against a Spags defense. KC will need to win on the outside with their WR's (Brown, Worthy Thompkins).. in this game. Philly's corners match up well. The run game will not be there and Fangio's defense typically covers the middle of the field well. (Much better than Buffalo). Philly can run better than Buffalo as well which will shorten this game. (Think UNDER 49.5) Philly's offense is no slouch as they have talent on the outside that can beat KC's corners but it is really Goedert who will be doing the damage in this game since KC is not that good at covering TE's. I look at this game as being a better version of the KC / TB super bowl. I think that Philly will extend drives more than KC because they have the better 3rd down defense. Yes, I am aware that Fangio is 0-8 against Mahomes but this defense is special and their front 4 can get home without sending extra bodies especially on the exterior. The interior line is an advantage for KC. I see a close middle scoring game like a 23-20 final with Mahomes driving down field at end of game for a win to put the game over 49.5 but he gets picked off. Philly gets revenge and the crown. The public loses on the KC ml and over bets. Just the way I see it. I believe Tom Brady is calling this game on FOX. It would sure suck to have to be the announcer watching Mahomes get the 3 peat which is something Brady never did. Safe to say it won't happen either for Mahomes. Just my opinion.