Indigo999

Public dogs went 3-4 today (games between FBS opponents with a line between -20 and +20)......Illinois, Stanford, Air Force, Idaho, Maryland, Syracuse, NC State,............with Hawaii pending.

Sunday public dogs (>50% of bettors on them) went 0-2 week 1.....with the Lions and the Dolphins unable to cover.

Those teams with equal or less than 35% of the public on them, which are almost always underdogs, have gone 5-2 ATS the first two Sundays.....those teams qualifying as of Saturday night,  week 3 are....

  a)  Rams

  b)  Panthers 

  c)  Broncos

  d)  Bears

  e)  Jets

  f)  Saints

  g)  Titans

  h)  Browns

Texans are a public dog, so I am cancelling my Texans bet.....

Plays:

1)  Raiders +3'

2)  Panthers +5'

3)  Jets +6'

4)  Saints +7'

5)  Cardinals +3, -120

6)  Patriots +2'....got a better line at  a different book than what was listed previously.

Texans CANCELLED as they are a public dog.

Good fortune on Sunday....

Killersports has this at 9-1 ATS, while gimmethedog has it at 10-0 ATS.....I just ran it on killersports....of the two I would trust the killersports results more.

  g)  week and tA(margin, N=2) < -5 and AD and on:HD 

4-7 STD....-7.55 units

Obviously not a great start....we'll give this one or two more weeks for things to turn around.

  a)  A week 3 winless underdog since 2009 that is playing a 1 win team who will be an underdog their next game......31-13 ATS (+4.3), 21-23 straight up (-1.8)....ON Texans, Bears, Saints, Panthers (careful with Panthers as Falcons are right on the line of being a favorite or dog next game).

t:wins=0 and t:losses=2 and line>0  and season>2009 and o:wins=1 and week=3

  b)  A divisional home favorite of less than 7 points before week 8 that won their two previous games, both on the road....9-17-1 against the spread (-2.7), 16-11 SU, (+1.1), VERSUS 49ers

p:AW and pp:AW and HF and line>-7 and DIV and week<8 

  c)  A week 3 away dog whose present opponent will be an underdog their next two games.....49-24-3 ATS (+4.6), 41-34 (+0.5)....ON Saints, Texans

  d)  A week 3 away underdog who will be a favorite their next two games....58-33-1 (+5.0), 49-48-1 (+0.8)....ON Rams, Lions, Cardinals

  e)  AFC West teams as away dogs in the first five weeks of the season playing in the Eastern time zone....47-31 ATS....ON Raiders

  f)  A week 3/4 home favorite off an away loss,...89-147-9 ATS (-2.2).....VERSUS Jaguars, Commies.............. (and Dolphins week 4).....this moves to 34-71-6 ATS in week 3 if their present opponent has less than two wins....and to 10-30 ATS if their opponent will be favored next week.....VERSUS Jaguars, Commanders

  g)  A week 3 away dog that has an average scoring margin or -5/game or worse, playing a team that will be a home dog 10-0 ATS (+11.2), 9-1 straight up (+7.5)....ON Jets

Plays all for 1.5 units:

1)  Panthers +5'

2)  Jets +6'

3)  Texans +105

4)  Raiders +3'

5)  Saints +7'

6)  Cardinals +3, -120

7)  Patriots +105

good fortune to you.....

Deleting Seahawks play.

Plays for 1.5 units:  

1)  Jaguars +3'

2)  Chiefs +1

3)  Titans +5' 

Adding.....

4)  Commanders +3, -100

Though there are a myriad of angles supporting the Panthers, Giants, Bears and Seahawks I cannot pull the trigger on these teams with their very questionable quarterbacks.

In actuality, those types of teams if they were  to start out 0-4 are very good bets later in the season as dogs off a loss.....much like Will Levis last year, those quarterbacks often find ways of blowing a game and the cover for bettors when they often should/could win their games.  My view is that one needs a quarterback to cover on the road, and defense and a running game are more important at home, though competent to excellent quarterbacks that can run....like Murray, Jackson, Josh Allen often are stellar at covering on the road.

  o)  A week 2 away dog off a loss that was outyarded by at least 100 yards in that loss.....25-33-1 ATS (-2.0), 16-43 straight up (-9.1).....VERSUS Panthers, Seahawks, Giants

If our away dog's present opponent outyarded their opponent their previous game this moves to 6-18 ATS (-6.0), 3-21 straight up (-13.6)....this becomes 0-5 ATS (-10.1), 0-5 straight up (-18.6) if our away dog lost that previous game on the road.....VERSUS Giants

p:L and AD and week=2 and p:TY-po:TY<-100 and opo:TY

Thanks for that...almost certainly I'll fade the Falcons as we get later in the week.

  n)  An away dog in weeks 2, 3 or 4 that outrushed their present opponent by over 100 yards their previous game, 39-22 ATS, (+3.6).....ON Commies, Jags

Jags rushed for 200 yards, Bengals 46......Commies rushed for 220 and Packers rushed for 78.

p:RY-op:RY>100 and week<5 and AD

  l)  A week 2 dog that will be favored their next two games....62-33 ATS.....ON Chiefs, Bears, Commanders

week = 2 and D and n:F and nn:F

 m)  A week 2 dog whose opponent will be an underdog their next two games.....53-28-4 ATS.....ON NYG, Jaguars

  week=2 and D and on:D and onn:D

  k)  week 2 home favorites off an away loss.....66-80-3 ATS

   1)  If they outgained their opponent in that loss.....29-19-1 ATS (+3.1), 35-14 straight up (+9.1).........ON Cowboys

   2)  If they were outgained in their week 1 away loss....38-60-2 ATS (-2.7), 38-56-4 o/u (-1.6).....VERSUS and UNDER Texans, Ravens, Dolphins, Lions 

week = 2 and HF and p:AL and p:TY < po:TY

AD and week<5 and line < oA(margin) +2.5 - tA(margin) and season > 2013 and line < 7 and p:L

  j)  Since 2014, an away dog of less 7 points before week 5 off a loss, whose point spread is less than the average margin of the two teams....61-26 ATS (+2.9)....ON Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Giants....this has been 25-9 ATS in week 2 since 2013.

Explaining this, as an example, the Falcons average margin is -3, and the Vikings is +3....the predicted line using just averages (in this case there is no average because there's only been one game played),...the line would be Falcons +6 (three minus negative three) and then  two and half points are added  for home field.....rather than a line of Falcons plus 8.5 points, the betting line is +3.5

AD and week<5 and line < oA(margin) +2.5 - tA(margin) and season > 2013

Plays with covers contest percentages:

Adding....

4)  Seahawks +3...25%

1)  Chiefs +1........39%

2)  Titans +5'.......36%

3)  Jaguars +3'....37%

  h)  An away divisional dog off a home divisional dog loss by less than 5 points.....32-15-2 (+3.7), 17-31 o/u (+0.2).......if their present opponent is off an away dog loss.....12-1-1 (+6.4), 7-7 straight up (+0.4), 5-9 o/u (-3.5)......ON Bears (and UNDER)

p:margin>-5 and p:HDL and AD and DIV and p:DIV and op:ADL

  i)  A home divisional favorite of less than 7 points before November off an away dog divisional  loss of less than 5 points....8-14-2 ATS (-2.9), 15-9 straight up (+0.8), 14-10 o/u (+6.5)......VERSUS Cowboys (and OVER)

p:margin>-5 and HF and p:DIV and DIV and p:ADL and line>-7 and month<11

That's a good find....this moves to 23-9 ATS (+4.8), 19-14 straight up if they lost at home. 

I have found that when an indicated play-on team doesn't come through, they often do so the next week, in the case of the Falcons...however as of now they are a public dog, which would keep me off of playing the Falcons.

On the pregame website, they are +7 at Westgate, +6' at betonline, and +6 at draftkings.......

  g)  A September home favorite of less than 7 points in weeks 2, 3 or 4 that is off an away loss that played in zero or less than three playoff games the previous season.....79-136-7 ATS (-3.1), 111-111 straight up (+0.5).....VERSUS Cowboys, Lions, Dolphins, Texans

Query text....

week < 5 and HF and p:AL and line > -7 and tpS(playoffs) < 3 and month = 9

  f)  An away divisional dog before week 5 off a home loss that was played on either Thursday or Monday.....11-3 ATS.....ON Bears

This moves to 6-1 ATS, 4-3 straight up if their present opponent is also off a loss.

Query text......

AD and week<5 and p:HL and DIV and p:day!=Sunday