Riderx

Your going to be just fine...

Actually, your run game may be spot on.  I was working on red zone td's & came up with this:

Before week 17, non-div home favs in Dec. off a s/u loss at home w/a total more than 52 vs opp allowed more than 25 RZ TD's:

week<17 and month=12 and NDIV and HF and p:HL and oS(o:RZM)>25 and total>52

2-0 s/u

2-0 ats

52-33 & 38-27

avg 199.5 RY & 360.5 PY per game

scoring avg each qtr:  14.0, 10.0, 7.0, 14.0

Det-3'

Over 54'

just my 2 cents...one of the 9 win NFC West teams will lose s/u & Frisco's on a bye

Should be a fun game.  Look for a shoot-out.  8 to 10 pass TD's combined.  All passing & non-existent rushing.  Bombs away!!!

Look everyone makes up their own mind.  If you bet, that's on you...no one else.  I'm not a tout & never claim to be great...never will.  I use a database to help out because I question everything.  I didn't know the Chiefs were gonna' get hit with 119 yards in penalties.  There are only 2 games in which a road dog of +2 or more was off a game as a home dog in which they had less than 2 punts & their opponent had more than 100 pen yds & now vs a team off a s/u loss:

Lost 30-38

Lost 20-41

twist my arm:  Det-3 & Over 54'

@JoseAlonso787

 yeah...sometimes I say stupid sh*t

@Gettinghot4now

Since Oct. 1st '23, any road dog off a game in which their opp had more than 100 pen yds:

po:PENY>100 and AD and date>=20231001

0-16 s/u

1-15 ats...the only ats win as a 14' dog...lost by 12

against Dallas+

A starting point:  Road dogs of less than +3 off a home game in which they were a dog of more than +4, since '89

33-21 s/u

36-18 ats

23-31 o/u

Wash+1'

Umm...the Bears as a road dog after gaining more than 200 RY since the '02 re-align:

team=Bears and AD and p:RY>200 and season>=2002

1-10 s/u & 1-10 ats

the only s/u & ats win in '22 at NE on MNF & the Bears were coming off a s/u loss at home

Haven't done any cappin' on this game but how many times have you seen a 9-3 team getting more than 4pts?  Especially vs any team with less than 10 wins?  I'll bet it's rare.  Anyways, just this year the Bears were on a 4-game win streak & just off a game they had less than 200 PY but more than 200 RY.  What happened next?  They got blown out at Balt.

I give Chicago much respect for their season so far but have a feelin' they're running into a buzzsaw this weekend as the Packers have already gone thru turbulence & righted the ship.  Just a thought...

well. lost the under but nailed the big'ee...NE-7. Did take out insurance with a tease, so profit...

@ECWG

Okay, before I get started let me just say I know the history of the Giants vs the Patriots but with that said, let me get started...

Any MNF team on at least a 9-game win streak that lost the previous match-up & both teams on 7 days rest:

day=Monday and streak>8 and P:L and rest=o:rest=7

3-0 s/u...by 21.0ppg

3-0 ats...by 16.2ppg

0-3 o/u...by -6.8ppg

'98 Broncos...won SB

'05 Colts...lost Div Rd at Home to SB winner Pitt...then Colts won SB next year

'09 Saints...won SB

'25 Patriots ???

Patriots-7

Under 46'

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Any non-conf road dog of a road game in which their opp had 0 punt return yards but over 100 kickoff return yards:

0-9 o/u

Under 46'

Dogs of more than 3.5:

0-5 s/u...by -20.0ppg

0-5 ats...by -12.9ppg

0-5 o/u...by -9.5ppg

Patriots-7

Under 46'

I'll tip my hat to the Giants if they cover but I will never back a team that blew a 10pt lead while giving up over 200 yards rushing.

sh*t...I'm scratching Wash+...here's why

Road favs of -2 or more that did not win any of their last 3 games by 4 or more points, both teams off a bye:

AF and line<=-2 and p:margin<4 and pp:margin<4 and ppp:margin<4

3-0 ats

since '02:  s/u by 23 & 31

scores of:  30-7 & 34-3

Denver-6

Denver alts

Under

on the Bills/Steelers game...

After week 11, conf road favs between -2 & -5 w/a total between 43 & 54 off a s/u loss as a road fav & game kickoff is after 4pm:

4-0 ats

not on Monday:

2-0 s/u...by 35 & 21

Buff-3

Top Play of the Day & Blowout Alert

Home dogs off a s/u win on the road & are bigger dogs than last game, now vs opp off a win on 5 days rest:

HD and p:ADW and line>p:line+1 and o:rest=5 and op:W

0-6 ats

since '02 losing s/u by -29, -27, -24 & -41...against Clev+5'

avg final score:  10.5 - 40.8

welcome to the NFL Shedeur

49'ers-5'....& the 49'ers might score more than the game total

49'ers on alts

teams coached by Sean Payton on at least an 8-game win streak as road favs vs non-div opp:

coach=Sean Payton and streak>7 and AF and NDIV

2-3 s/u

0-5 ats

as fav of less than -8':  0-3 s/u & ats

Wash+6'

Wash m/l

@sherriffics

@Fuse