Fish22

In absolute freefall at the moment so tail at your own risk and all that. 

Cavaliers @ Bulls - Dean Wade over 6.5 points

There was a bit of movement for the Cavs last game, with Jarrett Allen's return offset by Evan Mobley's absence, which is expected to last at least a couple of weeks. Along with that change, they decided to move Jaylon Tyson out of the starting lineup, replacing him with Dean Wade, who put in a very good showing with 14 points on 5-9 shooting, 8 boards and a couple of dimes in 32 minutes of playing time. Interestingly, Tyson still played 35 minutes that game too, with Deandre Hunter only playing 27 and Allen just 23 in his return. Essentially the Cavs have six players they want to give decent minutes too and that may fluctuate a bit game to game, but with Allen still just one game back from his absence and Hunter not playing that well, Wade is a good chance of upwards of 30 minutes again tonight in a starting role. It's not yet confirmed that he will start, but having been moved into the starting five last game and played well, I'm thinking he will. His points line, however, is right around his overall season average, which has come in an average of just 22 minutes per game off the bench. Wade is not a high-volume shooter by any means but in potentially 10+ extra minutes relative to his average, he should be getting close to 10 looks. This line is based off his overall season average, but his situation appears to have changed so I'm jumping in before the lines adjust.

Grizzlies @ Timberwolves - Jaylen Wells over 13.5 points

Jaylen Wells has taken a big step forward over the past few weeks and if you'd been getting on his over regularly, you'd have been making plenty of coin. He's scored at least 13 in nine consecutive games and 15+ in all but one of those, averaging 18.1 in that time. But his line has hardly moved, still sitting just one above his overall season average of 12.5. Making matters even better for us, Ja Morant is out of this one as is Cam Spencer, who has been absolutely balling and taking plenty of shots. Wells is getting to the line regularly, which is fantastic because it's indicative of him being aggressive on offence and is much more repeatable than hitting bulk threes, for example. In the solitary game he hasn't passed this number out of his last nine, he went 1-7 from the field and still fell just a point short of passing it. Obviously the Wolves are strong defensively but even so, with his recent form and the Grizzlies outs this looks like a very good chance.

Alrighty, been sliding over the past few weeks and unable to post with as much consistency, but have a couple today that will hopefully get things rolling in the right direction once again. Haven't looked at the later games yet but have two for the Nets game earlier on.

Bucks @ Nets - Michael Porter Jr over 25.5 points

Pretty simple logic here really. MPJ is playing the best basketball of his career in an increased role with Brooklyn this season, and he has taken things to new heights over the past week or two. His line is set right around his season average (slightly under actually) but in his last four games, he's put up 35, 33, 35 and 34, well over where this line is set. That is in part due to some unsustainable three-point shooting, but not to the extent that it worries me - he's taking 10+ a night and is a 40% shooter normally anyway, so even on average shooting we'd expect him to be hitting a few of them. He's getting bulk looks and shooting with heaps of confidence, and against a Giannis-less Bucks team can hopefully hit 30+ again.

Bucks @ Nets - Danny Wolf over 4.5 rebounds

Bit more of an obscure one here, but one I really like. Danny Wolf has carved out a nice spot in the Nets rotation, averaging a tick under 25 minutes per game in his last six. His stats have been a bit up and down in that time, but he's grabbed at least 4 boards in each game and averaged nearly 6 in that time. The main reason I like this bet, however, is that those numbers aren't reflective of what he is capable of. Wolf is 7-foot tall and over his past two seasons in college, averaged a touch under 10 boards a game in 30 minutes a night. Maybe that won't translate directly to the NBA but rebounds are rebounds no matter what the level of basketball, and in 25 minutes per game he should be expecting a lot more than 4 or 5. I think if he keeps playing these sort of minutes for the rest of the season, he will probably be looking at closer to 6, 7 or 8 a night, so I'm keen to take advantage while the line is low.

Best of luck team, hopefully back on the winners' list for you all today.

Bit of a grim showing by Anthony Black the other day but can hopefully bounce back today. Very limited time so can't give a write up but here are my two bets - both based on very strong recent form and clearing these numbers really comfortably most games.

Jazz @ Knicks - Keyonte George over 20.5 points

27+ points in 7 of George's last 9 games, taking plenty of shots.

Grizzlies @ Clippers - Zach Edey over 12.5 rebounds

If we cancel out his game against the Nugs which he had to leave after 6 minutes, Edey has had at least 15 boards in five consecutive games. Getting good minutes and is just too big to keep off the glass.

Bit of a grim showing by Anthony Black the other day but can hopefully bounce back today. Very limited time so can't give a write up but here are my two bets - both based on very strong recent form and clearing these numbers really comfortably most games.

Jazz @ Knicks - Keyonte George over 20.5 points

27+ points in 7 of George's last 9 games, taking plenty of shots.

Grizzlies @ Clippers - Zach Edey over 12.5 rebounds

If we cancel out his game against the Nugs which he had to leave after 6 minutes, Edey has had at least 15 boards in five consecutive games. Getting good minutes and is just too big to keep off the glass.

Haven't had much time to post the last few days, busy time of year and all that, but got one for today that I'm on.

Spurs @ Magic - Anthony Black over 14.5 points

Anthony Black has taken a big step forward in his third season in the league, particularly over the last few weeks, and he's rapidly gone from a solid role player off the bench to a key part of their team. He seems increasingly comfortable being aggressive offensively of late, and has jumped from around 8-11 shots per game to 13, 17, 17 and 15 in his last four games. Those games have yielded 14, 31, 16 and 22 points, and while his line has moved up a little it's still unlikely to be high enough if he's taking around that number of shots again.

No good yesterday with Zubac having a pretty quiet game, though he did make a late run at his rebounds line. Just the one for today.

Bucks @ Heat - Kel'el Ware over 11.5 rebounds

Back to the well with Ware here, who continues to cruise past his line without too many problems. The Heat are gradually nearing full fitness and they do have a lot of players who deserve decent minutes, though they are predominantly guards/wings so Ware's minutes are probably more dependent on whether Spo is feeling the double-big line-up with Ware and Adebayo. Regardless, Ware has been just about their best player of late, so he should be getting 25+ minutes even with the return of Herro, Powell, Wiggins and co (though with a few of them questionable, it would still be great if one or two of them didn't play). Regardless of minutes though, Ware hasn't even been close to this line for a while, having picked up 14+ rebounds in each of his last five games and averaging nearly 15 in his last 9 games - and since Adebayo came back, Ware has had 16, 14, 16 and 18. There might be some uncertainty around the Heat's minute distribution given their depth, but however much time he gets on the floor, Ware will likely fill the stat sheet and should again cruise past this line.

Another split day yesterday with Mitchell missing easily and Ware hitting easily. Have been hovering over a couple today but just settling on one for the later game with too much juice on the others I like.

Clippers @ Lakers - Ivica Zubac over 11 rebounds

I've got him juiced at 10.5 or + money at 11.5, but I reckon he'll cover both. Zubac is having a solid season for the struggling Clippers and in the past few games has been rebounding the shite out of it, picking up 18+ in two of his last three games (though he did only manage 9 in the one in between). Still, there's good reason to think he'll have another big night on the boards tonight with the Lakers heading into the game underhanded at the five. Ayton is out, meaning that the Lakers will Jaxon Hayes at center - not a great outcome for them. Hayes is pretty rubbish a lot of the time - even when he is out there Zubac should have his measure on the boards, but I also think Redick won't want to play him huge minutes and will probably settle for a smaller line-up for a fair bit of this game. Obviously the concern when that happens is that the opposing big gets run off the floor, but the Clips are pretty consistent in how they give Zubac minutes - he plays 30+ virtually every game regardless of matchup and should again tonight, and against a very average fellow big man and oftentimes no opposing five at all, he should be in for a big rebounding night.

@ChaseFades

 You're right, bad call by me, should've gone assists.

Couple to kick off the week.

Cavaliers @ Raptors - Donovan Mitchell over 30.5 points

I don't usually go for high lines on star players, but this one was staring me right in the face and looks too good to avoid. The Cavs are helplessly depleted tonight, with three starters in Jarrett Allen, Deandre Hunter and Darius Garland set to sit the game out, as will Sam Merrill and Craig Porter. Slotting into the line-up in their place will likely be Lonzo Ball, Jaylon Tyson and Dean Wade if he plays, none of whom are going to take nearly as many shots as the players they are replacing. Expect Mobley to do a little more, but he's never really a huge volume of shots guy at this stage of his career, and outside of him they have very little in the way of offense. Already Mitchell has been absolutely balling, scoring 30 nearly every night and 37 in his last game, and with all those guys out he is probably going to need to take 25+ shots in a game the Cavs will still rate themselves a chance of winning. It would be no surprise to see Mitchell put up a 40-piece tonight.

Mavericks @ Heat - Kel'el Ware over 11.5 rebounds

Ware's minutes are down slightly since the return of Adebayo, but he's still getting enough to put up some strong statistical numbers, particularly in the rebounding category. He's a huge man and is using those endless arms to grab just about everything that falls off the rim of late, and in his last 8 games is averaging a massive 14.4 boards per night. As mentioned, he's not getting 30+ minutes the last three games as he was before Bam's return, but even in 19, 28 and 26 minutes in those three games he has grabbed 16, 14 and 16 rebounds. Ware is playing easily well enough to justify big minutes over his past couple of games, but coach Spo seems to like playing a relatively small line-up alongside Adebayo to facilitate the Heat's run and gun gamestyle. With Herro returning tonight, there is the potential for even more minutes with a four guard/wing + Adebayo line-up, but Herro will likely only play limited minutes and offsetting his return is the absence of Norm Powell. Ware should still be getting 25-30 minutes tonight assuming his offense keeps up, and if he does there's no reason he won't be pushing 15 boards once again.

Split the points yesterday with Duren just sneaking over the line and Williams Jr just falling short. For the most part I've been keeping it to one or two bets a day this season, but quite a few tickling my fancy today.

Hornets @ Hawks - Onyeka Okongwu over 18.5 points

Okongwu has been balling of late, and will today slot back into the starting lineup with Porzingis set to miss, something which has generally bade pretty well for him in recent times. Okongwu is in a five-game stretch during which he has scored 21+ points four times, and is averaging just over 23 per game. In two of those games, Porzingis has played and Okongwu has spent just 25 and 21 minutes on the court (though still scoring 21 and 15 points in those games). In the three in which Porzingis hasn't played, Okongwu has played 34+ minutes every time and scored 21, 27 and 32. Granted he has been shooting the lights out from long range which I don't typically like to rely on, but he does score plenty inside the arc anyway and is stroking it with confidence from deep, so he's a good chance to hit at least a couple again today.

Hornets @ Hawks - Kon Knueppel over 19.5 points

The Hornets look to have uncovered a very good one in Kon Knueppel, who in his first couple of months in the league is averaging nearly 20 points, 6 boards and 3 dimes. And the more time he spends on an NBA floor, the more confident he is getting. The rookie has scored at least 24 points in four of his last five games, and while he's shooting it very well from deep, he's proven that he's got a lot more to his game than just a good stroke from beyond the arc. Already the over would be looking nice here given his electric form, but making matters even better for us is that Lamelo Ball is set to miss, so expect plenty of offense from both Knueppel and Miles Bridges. 

Magic @ Celtics - Anfernee Simons over 3 assists

My bookies are torn between 2.5 and 3.5 as a line here, with some offering up to $1.75 for over 2.5 and others offering up to $2.40 for over 3.5. I've had a little dabble at both so I'm setting the line here at 3, which is about where he would be even money. Simons doesn't appear to have been all that engaged in his first couple of months with the Celts, but he's started to find a bit of rhythm of late and I'm hoping to capitalize on a low line before it shifts. Over the past couple of seasons, Simons has averaged 4.8 and 5.5 assists per game, and while that was in a larger role for the Blazers, he should still be looking at around 4 per game if he plays the 25 or so minutes Joe Mazzulla seems to have him pegged for. Over the past five games, he has begun to put up better numbers, dishing out 5, 7, 2, 5 and 4 assists in that time - clearing this line four out of five times and averaging closer to 5 per night. His minutes are still a little variable depending on his output, but more often than not he's playing 25 minutes or so, which should be enough to clear this line more often than not.

Clippers @ Cavaliers - Jaylon Tyson over 5 rebounds

Same as with Simons, some of my bookies have this juiced at 4.5 and some have it + money at 5.5 so I'm putting it in the middle. This is basically a minutes-based bet - while both Garland and Mitchell are playing tonight, each of Merrill, Ball and Porter are out, as is Jarrett Allen, so Tyson should be getting 30+ minutes tonight. In his last three games, Tyson has snared 8, 9 and 7 dimes in 26-31 minutes, and with potentially more like 35 tonight he should have ample opportunity to grab this number of rebounds. Though he's had minimal experience at the NBA level, Tyson was a decent rebounder in college, averaging close to 7 per game in 30 or so minutes in his final year, and I always figure that is much more translatable to the NBA for young players than scoring/passing. 

A nice easy hit with Cole Anthony the other day hitting his assists number in just a handful of minutes of playing time. Couple for today.

Pistons @ Bucks - Jalen Duren over 17.5 points

I had to shop around to get him at 17.5 but would take 18.5 if it's available too. Pretty simple one here - Duren is averaging 20.6 points per game this season, and over his past few games a lot more than that. The big man has passed this number in eight of his last nine games, and usually easily - during that span his average is at nearly 24. In his last two games Duren has put up 31 and then 24 points, so with all that factored in this line looks far too low.

Grizzlies @ Mavericks - Vince Williams Jr over 6.5 assists

With Ja Morant sidelined for a couple of weeks, Vince Williams has taken over point guard duties for the Grizzlies, in the last couple of games to very good effect. The Griz have a few guys who can run the offense in parts without Ja, but over the past two games the ball seems to have found its way into Williams' hands a lot more. Two games ago against the Spurs, that led to a near triple-double when he had 14-9-9, and last game, he backed that up with a huge 15 assists in just 24 minutes to help Memphis to a 40-point win over the Kings, the last quarter of which he watched from the bench. 6.5 is a relatively high number given Williams' career averages, but based on the limited sample size he appears more than capable of putting up comfortably more than that as a full-time PG in Morant's absence.

We've recaptured a bit of form of late with a few hits in a row, but there's no doubting the lines are a lot tighter than they were earlier in the season with less role changes etc going on, so I've been a bit less active as a result. Found one I like for today though, based partly on form and partly on a likely increase in usage courtesy of a big injury.

Sixers @ Bucks - Cole Anthony over 4.5 assists

Cole Anthony has been reasonably solid for the Bucks off the bench so far this season, though his efficiency has dipped the past few weeks after a strong start. His facilitating, however, has remained pretty steady, and he's had a good last few games in that regard with 5, 7 and 8 dimes in his past three. Overall on the season he averages 5.2, so already this line is a little low, but with the absence of Giannis I think Anthony is very likely to cruise past this line. The obvious guys to slot in more minutes with Giannis out are Portis, Kuzma and Sims, but I don't think the Bucks are going to be too keen to have two of them on the floor alongside Myles Turner for very long. More likely I think they'll play a smaller line-up for a lot of the game, with three proper backcourt/wing types (e.g Rollins, AJ Green, Trent Jr and Anthony), alongside a couple of those dopey bigs. I could be wrong, but I think there's a good chance that Anthony, who has been playing just under 20 minutes per game, sees closer to 25 or so tonight. Even notwithstanding any potential increase in minutes (and ball-handling responsibilities when he is on the floor), I think this line would be a little low given Anthony's last couple of games, but with both his form and greater opportunity tonight factored in, I like him to scoot past this number.

Nice easy 2-0 day yesterday with both Ware and Drummond cruising to double-doubles. Just the one for the moment for today - will take a closer look at later games later today.

Pistons @ Hawks - Dyson Daniels over 5.5 assists

I've been watching Daniels like a hawk for a while now, and he just keeps on doling out assists without really any adjustment to his line from the books. He's averaging a career-high 5.8 of them a game, but unsurprisingly with Young out that average is even higher and he's been cruising past this number most games. He's averaging nearly 9 dimes in his last 6 games and has picked up at least 8 in all but one of those - clearly well over this assist number, and yet still I can find this at better than even money. So far this year, Daniels has been struggling to score but has really upped his passing game, so the under points/over assists double has been happening just about every game - for now though, I'm just sticking to assists.

Morning team. Had a busy few days so not all that much time to post but got a couple to get us underway today - neither of these are over/under props, instead double-doubles so hopefully you can find them - both of them at around even money for me.

Clippers @ 76ers - Andre Drummond to record a double-double

I get this at $1.90 with my main bookie, whatever that translates to. Drummond is getting plenty of playing time with Embiid out and has been sailing to double-doubles pretty easily his last few games - in his last five, his point-rebound numbers have been 13-13, 4-8, 17-12, 14-13 and 12-11. Four relatively comfortable double-double, and who would guess, the solitary one in which he missed was the solitary game in that group that Embiid has played. Without Joel in, Drummond has been getting 30+ minutes a night (closer to 35 his last three), and making matters even better tonight is that the Sixers back-up center behind Drummond in Adem Bona will join Embiid on the sidelines. That means they'll need to lean heavily on big Andre tonight, particularly given Zubac will play a decent number of minutes for the Clips, so Philly don't have the option of going small. This should be closer to $1.50 imo.

Knicks @ Heat - Kel'el Ware to record a double-double

As above hopefully you have this option - for me it's at just over even money, sitting at +103 currently. Ware is another big man profiting from injury - already he'd been playing center for the Heat but alongside Bam his opportunities were limited. With Adebayo out, however, he has begun to find his feet as the Heat's primary big man. In his first game without his big buddy, Ware struggled with just 7 points and 6 boards; next game he went 9 and 12, and in the three since he's gone 14-20, 15-13 and 15-10. He's playing more and more minutes and making the most of them, and with the Knicks boasting Towns and Robinson, Coach Spo will probably need his five to play close to 35 minutes tonight. With an average of nearly 15 and 15 over his past three games (and around 12 and 12 in his past six, harking back to the game Bam got injured in) he looks like way overs to record another DD tonight.

A nice day yesterday, with three easy collects to get us moving back in the right direction after stagnating a little in the days prior. Nothing I loved in the early games but a couple for this late one.

Nuggets @ Kings - Precious Achiuwa over 4.5 rebounds

With starting line-ups not yet released there might be a little uncertainty here, but Achiuwa moved into the starting five last game and picked up a solid 12 points and 10 boards in 29 minutes, so I'm banking on the Kings keeping him in there. That was just Achiuwa's third game for the Kings, but they appear to have decided that they need someone aside from Domantas Sabonis on the floor who isn't a ball-hungry guard, and Achiuwa responded with a solid game for them. He's never really been on the receiving end of big minutes in his career but has still averaged around 6 or so boards per game for years now, and that's while only playing roughly 20 minutes per game most years. Even if that was how much time we expected him to have on the floor in this one this line of 4.5 would be low, but given he's a good chance of playing 25+, this one is hard to ignore. I've also had a dabble on him to double-double at a ridiculous $16.

Nuggets @ Kings - Nique Clifford over 2.5 rebounds

I'm putting a lot of faith in the Kings here, perhaps risky given their penchant for doing inexplicable things, but Nique Clifford is one of the few young players they're actually giving minutes to and he's increasingly looking somewhat at home on the NBA floor. In the five games in a row he's played, Clifford has had anywhere from 16-33 minutes, but that's been trending upwards, and in those games he's had 3 rebounds four times. This is obviously dependant on how much time he gets on the floor, so hopefully he can contribute offensively too, but his worst case scenario is around 15 minutes and his best probably close to 30, and even on the lower end of the spectrum I think he's a good chance of surpassing this. Clifford is actually a good rebounder - he averaged over 9 per game in 35 minutes in college last year and 7.6 in 30 minutes the season before that, so even if he averages around 20 minutes or so this season it wouldn't surprise me if he's picking up 4-5 boards a night. 2.5 is too low and probably won't stay at this number for many games more, so I'm taking it while it does, even if there is some risk involved with the uncertainty surrounding his minutes.

Back on the winners' list at last with a couple of easy ones, and one more for the day.

Hawks @ Clippers - Dyson Daniels over 5.5 assists

After a slow start to the season, my fellow Australian is working his way into things, benefiting from a couple of notable absentees from the Hawks' backcourt. With Trae Young out he's obviously had to shoulder a bigger ball-handling load, and with Nickeil Alexander-Walker now out for his second straight game that will be even more true tonight. Even with Alexander-Walker in the line-up he'd been passing this more often than not, albeit not by that much, picking up 6 or more dimes in 4 of his last 5 games prior to last game. Then, with Alexander-Walker joining Young on the sidelines last game, Daniels racked up a huge 13 of them. He's now had 8 and 13 in his last two games and 6+ in five of his last six, and with the Hawks stretched thin in the backcourt he should get plenty of opportunities once again tonight.

Managed to split our three bets 1-1-1 yesterday, with Adams missing by half a rebound, Claxton getting to his number halfway through the third quarter then not playing another minute, and da Silva clearing his line comfortably. Not quite getting the breaks at the minute but we were probably on the fun side of the luck spectrum through the first couple of weeks so what can ya do. Couple for today.

Cavaliers @ Heat - Jaime Jaquez Jr over 4.5 assists

As someone who bets almost exclusively overs on props, I love this game. The two fastest-paced teams in the league and a line of nearly 250 suggests there will be plenty of stats put up, and Jaime Jaquez Jr is one guy who the probable lightning speed of the game will suit to a tee. I've watched the Heat a bit so far this season and he epitomises their new-look game style as much as anyone, getting the ball and making a beeline for the rim at any opportunity. He's been alternating between big scoring games and solid assists games so far and I've managed to pick the wrong side a couple of times, but when he missed out on the assist line I bet a few games ago, I watched the game and I would estimate he had around 10 potential assists for 2 actual assists - his teammates were just missing the shots he gave them. In his two games since then, Jaquez Jr has had 9 and 7 dimes. He will be looking to get downhill regularly in this game, but with the Cavs' length inside I don't expect him to be able to get an open lane to the bucket as much as he'd like. He'll no doubt be trying though, and I expect the presence of Allen and Mobley to force him into plenty of drop-offs and kick-outs which should yield plenty of assist opportunities. 

Spurs @ Bulls - Stephon Castle over 6.5 assists

Castle has shown dramatic improvement in his second season after taking out the ROTY last year, and his passing has been probably the most notable aspect of that improvement, particularly of late. He's up to 7.3 per game this season, but more importantly he's made an enormous 27 of them in his past two games. I had a look at this line last game but with the return of De'Aaron Fox, opted against it, only for Castle to just about pass the line in the first quarter. Clearly Fox's presence will have a detrimental impact on Castle's assist potential, but based on the way Fox's return played out, his backcourt protege will still have plenty of ball-handling responsibilities. With the Bulls' defense not particularly threatening on the inside, there should be plenty of lob opportunities to Wembanyama - assuming he can remember that he's just about 8-foot tall and stops taking possession of the ball 30-feet out - and Castle will likely be responsible for plenty of them. 

Celtics @ Magic - Tristan da Silva over 7.5 points

Took this one the other day and he cleared it relatively quickly, and with his line not moving I like the German to do it again. In his second season in the league, da Silva is averaging 11.3 points off the bench, and has cleared this number in seven of his nine games - often with ease. In the two in which he has failed to do so he has managed a grand total of just 2 points, but he's generally taking quite a few shots in his 20 minutes off the bench and while we probably do need his three-ball to fall, he's still capable of finding buckets in other ways if it isn't.

Nets @ Knicks - Nic Claxton over 12 points

I've taken this over 12.5 at +110 but also had the option of 11.5 at about $1.78, so putting it in the middle. The Nets obviously suck but Claxton is a solid player in a rich vein of form, and has been cruising past this line easily for five games now. He's been very consistent in that time, scoring between 17 and 19 points in every game, giving us a pretty big buffer over this line if he can even go close to retaining that form. There is some blowout potential in this one but given how comfortably Claxton has been passing this number over the past couple of weeks, I like him to do it again in this one.   

Early one.

Rockets @ Bucks - Steven Adams over 6.5 rebounds

I heard a crazy stat the other day that Steven Adams has been rebounding something like 27% of opposition misses while he’s on the floor so far this season. That’s led to an average of 9.3 of them per game, and he’s also been very consistent, snaring at least 8 in all but one of his 7 games this season. 7 boards is a lot in 20-odd minutes but he is doing it comfortably most games and at nearly 3 full boards under his season average to date, this line looks too low.