Fish22

Happy November my friends. Safe to say we've made it through the first couple of weeks of the season with a pretty handy record - won't keep going at this rate forever but I see no reason I won't continue winning more often than not. Hopefully today is no exception!

Rockets @ Celtics - Josh Minott over 5.5 rebounds

We've made a bit of coin off Minott's move into the starting lineup over the last few days, and even if he wasn't convincing yesterday he still got to the 7 boards we needed him to. Inexplicably, my books have now dropped his line down a number to 5.5 - it's around even money with one that I use but fairly juiced at the other so shop around and if you can find this at close enough to even money I'd jump on. Minott didn't play well yesterday after a couple of good games but still snared 8 boards despite being in foul trouble early and getting limited minutes as a result, and Mazzulla still finished the game with him on the floor so he must have liked something he was doing. Today the Celts take on the enormous and athletic Rockets, so on what is a very guard-heavy roster they will need the length and athleticism of Minott on the floor for hopefully a good 30 minutes or so - more than enough for him to scoot past this rebounding line given in his last three games he's racked up 9, 14 and 8 of them.

Mavericks @ Pistons - Ausar Thompson over 8.5 rebounds + assists

Love this one. I think Ausar Thompson will likely take a solid stride forward in his third season in the league, and the early signs support that. What I really love about his early season stats is that there is a massive outlier game in which he only played 15 minutes when the Pistons got pumped by the Cavs, which, with only five games in the rearview mirror, negatively skews his stats despite being largely irrelevant. That game aside, Thompson has picked up 9+ rebounds in 3 of 4, and averaged 5 assists. In three of those four games, Thompson has had 15 (!!) combined rebounds and assists, nearly double what his line is in this game. I like him to go over in both of those individual categories so it made sense to combo them up. For me this was available at near enough to even money at this number with one bookie, and plus-money for 9.5 at another - I still like 9.5 if that's what yours is offering.

Go team!

God that looked like a loss all the way didn't it. We'll take it!

@UnrankedChamp Mm not sure my friend, he has historically only averaged around 7 or so so it is up on that but you’re right, he has been hammering the boards. I don’t mind his points line today but he does get doubled a lot with everyone out so leaving it. 

Another happy day yesterday as we scooped up a couple more victories, both overs hitting early in the 2nd q. A bit short on time today but got the one that I think is a good one. 

Celtics @ Sixers - Josh Minott over 6.5 rebounds

Joe Mazzulla seems to have found one he likes in Josh Minott, who’s slotted into his starting lineup with a big last couple of games. After warming the bench for Minnesota for the last three years, he was given a chance by Mazzulla a couple of games ago and repaid him with 15 points and 9 boards in 28 minutes, before last game he got 33 minutes on the floor for an 11/14 stat line. That may not last but he has accumulated rebounds in the rare games over the last few minutes that he’s actually got decent minutes, and he did at college too. 6.5 is too low a number for his extended new role and unless he has a disaster early tonight, he should be in for 30-odd minutes again and cruise past this number. For a bit of value I also like him for a double double at around $7 with my bookies and a little under that for 10 rebs. 

Yep no stress tonight, both done within a quarter and a half

Morning team. Saraf had an absolute stinker yesterday to cost us a 3-0 day but with Okongwu and Siakam sneaking over their respective lines, it was still a 2-1 record and a winning day. Couple of nice ones for today.

Warriors @ Bucks - Brandon Podziemski over 2.5 assists

Extremely juicy line here I think. Podziemski has been a really solid contributor for the Warriors over his two years in the league, with his assists average for both of those seasons sitting right around 3.5. So far this season, his minutes have ticked up from around 26 to around 30, and there's no reason to think that won't remain the case, which makes an assists line a full stat beneath his career average a bit bewildering. After a slow start to the season in this category he's picked up 4 and then 6 dimes in his past two games with the Warriors entrusting him with plenty of ball-handling responsibilities, and in the roughly 30 minutes he will likely play he should be able to pick up something around those numbers again. 

Heat @ Spurs - Jaime Jaquez Jr over 3.5 assists

The Heat are short-handed in the backcourt with injuries to both Herro and Norm Powell (and obviously no Terry Rozier), which has opened the door for a couple of players, perhaps most notably Jaime Jaquez Jr. He's had a great start to his third season in the league averaging 18.8 points, and after a solitary assist in his first game he's also picked up 6, 5 and 5 of them in his last three games. Davion Mitchell is their official starting point guard for the moment, but Jaquez Jr is playing close to 30 minutes a game off the bench and handling the ball plenty when he's on the floor. I looked at his points total of around 14.5 too but he has been extremely efficient in his first few games, and that won't last forever. The amount he's running the offense at the moment, however, the 5-6 assists he's been putting up over the past few games should persist, at least while the rest of the Heat's backcourt is sitting on the sidelines.

Best of luck.

1-1 yesterday with Monk failing to hit his number but Kuzma cruising past his. Generally trying to keep it to just a couple a day but have three for today to start and potentially another later.

Hawks @ Nets - Ben Saraf over 2.5 assists

Bit of a random one but often that's where there is the best value, as long as your bookie offers it - though given Saraf has been starting you should be able to find it. The Nets suck and have absolutely nothing in the way of an established point guard, so one of their many recent draft picks has stepped in to fill the void. Saraf has averaged around 4 assists in 20 minutes or so playing in Europe the past couple of seasons, and has started life in the NBA in similar fashion, his four games so far yielding 4, 1, 5 and 5 assists in an average of 20 minutes. With little else in the way of playmakers, the Nets are reliant on their rookie to carry a decent load as a starter and while that's the case, 2.5 is too low a line for him.

Hawks @ Nets - Onyeka Okongwu over 1.5 assists

This one is probably based a little more on randomness than I would like, but on pure numbers it's clearly too low a line. Okongwu is a reasonably talented center who has finally been given an opportunity to start in the absence of Clint Capela, and it's yielding the most minutes of his NBA life so far. Last season, Okongwu averaged 2.3 assists per game in just under 28 minutes, but in 2024-25 he's their starting 5 and will play over 30 minutes most games as a result. Even notwithstanding the natural improvement he's displayed every season, that should yield around 2.5 assists per game, yet his line is at 1.5 (and I can get that with plus money). As I said, when it's this low there's an element of randomness, but the numbers suggest he will pass this line more often than not this season.

Pacers @ Mavericks - Pascal Siakam over 25.5 points

The Pacers have been absolutely reamed by injury over the past few months, and with Mathurin and Nembhard joining Haliburton on the sidelines they now almost literally have no offense outside of Siakam. Spicy P has come out of the blocks firing on all cylinders this season, with 32+ points in two of his three games, and he is a good chance to put up similar numbers in this one given the enormous load he will have to carry. Hopefully the Pacers don't get blown out of the water and sit him in the last q, but Indi will be going all out to get their first win of the season so I expect their best remaining player to get plenty of minutes, potentially put up close to 25-30 shots and cruise past this line.

The fun continued yesterday with another 2-0 day, albeit a little fortunate with both bets hitting the over by one solitary statistic. Kicking off with a couple today.

Kings @ Thunder - Malik Monk over 11.5 points

Way too low a line here. Monk has been an increasingly valuable contributor off the bench over the last few seasons, going from 13.5 per game three seasons ago, up to 15.4 and then last season 17.2, playing over 30 minutes per game in 2024-25. That will take a little bit of a hit this season with the Kings' acquisition of Westbrook to go with their raft of other ball-dominant, completely non-complementary players, but he's still an important part of their team and should be looking at around 25 minutes and 15 points per game. He's also started the season off well with 19, 20 and 15 points, so this line is a good few points lower than it should be.

Knicks @ Bucks - Kyle Kuzma over 3 rebounds

Depending on where you bet this might be at 2.5 or 3.5, if you can find the market - for me there's a lot of juice at 2.5 but it's comfortably plus money at 3.5. I've personally taken both but for the sake of the record I'll put it at 3 and call it a push if he hits exactly that number. Kuzma probably doesn't want to be in Milwaukee and they don't want him to be there that much either, but this is still a very, very low number for someone who has averaged right around 6 boards, at the least, for the past six years. He'll get less minutes than he has in past years while he's still in Milwaukee, but he should still be looking at 20+ - more than enough to get at least 3 boards and probably a couple more. So far this season he has played 23 minutes in his first game, and then 18 in his second before exiting with an ankle injury, so he was likely on track for close to 25 again. Far more often than not, if he's playing that many minutes he'll hit this number easily.

I was also having a look at Westbrook assists again but he is heavily juiced at 2.5 so I'll leave it out for the moment.

Yeah you might have to shop around for the bench player props. Filipowksi for 7 at plus money I don't mind but I don't reckon he'll fly past the 5.5 number so definitely feel more comfortable with him getting 6. Was $1.83 for me, not sure what that translates to in your US odds.

Another excellent day yesterday with both bets hitting inside the first half. A couple for today to start, both of which are bets we've hit on already this season and for which the lines haven't been adjusted.

Hawks @ Bulls - Patrick Williams over 2.5 rebounds

Stumbled upon this one the other day and loaded up, and Williams did what he needed to do very quickly for a stress-free win. He ended up with 5 boards in that game in 29 minutes, getting extended time on the floor courtesy of the fact that he was playing very well at both ends. He won't get 29 minutes every night but even at the roughly 20 which he should average, this is a number he'll likely pass more often than not. He's averaged around 4 boards per game in mid-20s minutes throughout his career, so 2.5 as a line is at least a full rebound too low.

Suns @ Jazz - Kyle Filipowski over 5.5 rebounds

Another successful one from the other day, though not quite as easy a hit with Filipowski just sneaking over with 6 boards. That's not necessarily a bad thing though, because it means this line - which is too low - has not moved. Filipowski is 7-foot tall and as I mentioned the other day, averaged 6.1 boards in 21 minutes in his rookie season - and a lot more than that over the last few games of the year. Granted that was without Walker Kessler which makes a major difference, but even over the course of that rookie season in its entirety he averaged more than this number. This season, he looks likely to play at least 5 extra minutes per game, and as a second-year player will probably see a natural increase in numbers to go with that. Filipowski averaged close to 10 boards in around 29 minutes per game at college, so this line is simply not really reflective of his rebounding ability. 

Good luck team.

Both wrapped up within the first half. Another good day.

A solitary Moussa Diabate point away from a 3-0 day yesterday, but will take 2-1 every day of the week. A couple to kick things off today.

Knicks @ Heat - Simone Fontecchio over 5.5 points

Fontecchio found his way to the Heat as part of Duncan Robinson's move to Detroit in the off-season, and while he won't be able to replicate his predecessor's sharpshooting, he is capable from long-range and has shown an ability to score in other ways throughout his career too. The Italian is no world-beater, but his line is set very low at 5.5 considering he's averaged over that every season of his career, a couple of times relatively comfortably. His first two games for Miami have been really solid, putting up 13 and 14 points in an average of 21 minutes per game, and if he gets close to that number of minutes with any sort of regularity he should be averaging closer to 10 points than the 5.5 his line is set at. Importantly, the 14 and 13 point games he's had to start the season haven't been solely as a result of hot shooting from long-range - in the first he was 6-9 from the field but only hit 1 three. It seems he's got the green light to be relatively aggressive with this bench unit, and he should be able to scoot past a very low line.

Lakers @ Kings - Russell Westbrook over 2.5 assists

I understand that he's a long way from the player he once was, but Russell Westbrook's assist line sitting at 2.5 is too hard to pass up. The Kings swooped him up late in the off-season, not a move that makes a whole lot of sense to me or just about anybody given their situation, but that's the Kings for you. Anyway, that's where he is, and while he's not going to play a massive role for them, the former MVP doesn't need too many minutes to pick up 3 assists. He looks likely to play around 18-20 minutes for the Kings per game based on the first couple of games - for reference, he played 22.5 mpg a couple of seasons ago and averaged 4.5 assists, while last season he was at 27.9 mpg for the Nuggets and averaged 6.1 dimes. For me he's at +15 to hit 3 assists - far too low for mine, so I've taken the over as well as a little dabble on him to get 5 at long odds.

Good luck team.

One more for the day. 
Sund @ Nuggets - Jonas Valanciunas over 4.5 rebounds

Valanciunas is obviously going to generally only play the minutes Jokic sits, so the 12 minutes he picked up in his first game of the season is probably around the mark. Still, in that short time he should be absolutely crashing the boards against second units, and giving this number a nudge most games. What makes me like this even more though is that the Nuggets should pump the Suns - they’re a 13-point favourite. That means there is a good chance jokic sits a large portion of the last q, so even if Jonas can’t get his 5 boards in his limited early minutes he should get a crack late in the game. 

After getting halfway there in the first few minutes, Kyle Filipowski nearly managed to miss the 6-rebound mark we needed him to hit, but fortunately he got there in the last quarter to take our record to a handy 6-1 on the season. A couple for today with a couple more I'm thinking about, but will likely just keep it to these two.

Bulls @ Magic - Patrick Williams over 2.5 rebounds 

This one is well over even money for me (at $2.45, or I guess +145 for most of you) but I'll include it anyway because I think it's a ridiculous line. By this stage in his career it's pretty clear that Williams is probably not going to be the superstar the Bulls had hoped he would be, but 2.5 rebounds at + money is very low. He's averaged bang on around 4 boards per game in roughly 25 minutes every season of his career to date, has had a solid pre-season, and importantly, is fit and healthy for once. In the pre-season he was playing anywhere from 16-25 minutes, and he'll likely get similar numbers to start the regular season - which should be enough for him to get 3 rebounds more often than not. He only managed 17 minutes in the Bulls' season opener but still picked up 4 boards, and that was with Dosunmu and Huerter playing well off the bench - Huerter in particular is a bit hit and miss and when he's the latter it will probably open up a few more minutes for Williams, so I expect that 17 to be at the low-end of how much court time our guy will get. There's always a bit more randomness in low lines for bench guys, but on the weight of averages I like our chances.

Hornets @ Sixers - Moussa Diabate over 6.5 points

I had the Diabate over a couple of days ago, and admittedly was wrong in assuming he would be the Hornets starting center, with rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner getting the nod instead. But those two shared the load amongst one another with Plumlee not getting on the floor, and Diabate still played 21 minutes and picked up 13 points. Despite that, his line has dropped a point to 6.5. Obviously it's not ideal that he doesn't appear to be starting, but it still seems as though he and Kalkbrenner will go close to splitting the minutes - the Hornets aren't going to play their rookie 35 minutes a game at the five, and based on game 1 he's likely to get himself into foul trouble fairly often anyway, as rookie bigs often do. Diabate is a flawed player but he does actually have a few moves, and the Hornets fast-paced game style means that space will often open up down low and there should be ample opportunity for drop-off passes at the rim, which he's pretty capable of finishing. In what should be 20+ minutes of game time, Diabate should go past this again in what looks like a season of improvement for him. 

Best of luck team.

First loss of the season last night with Holmgren failing to fire, but can’t win ‘em all can you.

Jazz @ Kings - Kyle Filipowski over 5.5 rebounds

Bit of a random one here but often it’s in the lower profile players where the best value lies. This is a very low number for a 6’11 guy who’s shown himself to be a pretty capable rebounder, and you should be able to get it at better than even money too. Filipowski averaged 6.1 boards in 21 minutes in his first season in the NBA, but as you’d expect got more productive as the year wore on. He had 3 boards in his last game of last season, but in the eight games prior to that he averaged more than 12 and had at least 9 every game. Big disclaimer: Walker Kessler didnt play most of those games, so filipowski will lose a lot of rebounds to him tonight. Even so, he should be playing 25 minutes and 5.5 is just too low for him. Even with Kessler in the lineup he should average 7 or 8 rebounds this season, so I’m jumping on before the market catches up.

So a hot start to the season it's safe to say. I always like the early stages because the bookies' props are largely based on last season with only relatively slight adjustments for any team changes/potential major improvements to certain players, so it's a good time to take advantage. Just the one for today which I think is a good example of just that^.

Thunder @ Pacers - Chet Holmgren over 17.5 points

Holmgren is someone I expect to make a bit of a leap this year. He's averaged 15 or 16 ppg over his first couple of seasons in the league but he will ultimately end up well into the 20s, and I would not be surprised if he ends this season right around the 20-mark. Early in the season, it may be even higher given the absence of Jalen Williams, OKC's second most prolific scorer. With him gone, Holmgren is the clear number two at the offensive end of the floor and will be required to shoulder a bigger load until he returns, and that's only furthered tonight with a number of other rotational players set to miss. Adding to that is the fact that the Pacers are going to be short-handed in the front court this season after losing Myles Turner in the off-season, and Holmgren's length will likely cause them plenty of problems. If he shoots like he did on opening night when he had 28 points he'll fly past this, but even if his stroke isn't as pure he should still get enough looks nearer the rim to put up 20+.

3/3. Easy money.

Diabate already there at the half, Dick with just 1 more point to go in the 2nd quarter. Think just one more for the day.

Spurs @ Mavericks - Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points

Pretty simple one here. I know I'm far from alone, but I expect Wembanyama to explode this year and put himself right in the mix for the MVP. He averaged 24.3 points last season and it would not surprise me in the slightest if that goes up to close to 30 in season 2025-26. His line is set based on last year's average - and even slightly below - but I think he will be going over this number a lot more often than not this season, and want to take advantage while it's still relatively low.

Nice little start to the season yesterday with Sengun and Kuminga clearing their assists and points totals respectively. Onto the next.

Nets @ Hornets - Moussa Diabate over 7.5 points

We kick things off with the big Moose, who is primed to stake his claim as the Hornets starting center this season. With Williams and Richards gone, the Hornets are spending very little cash at the rive, with Diabate to battle it out for minutes alongside Mason Plumlee and rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner will almost certainly be at the bottom of that list, and based on the pre-season Diabate should be at the top of it. He had a few strong outings in the pre-season, putting up 11+ points in the three games in which he played decent minutes - which from all reports, he should be doing ahead of Plumlee this season. Diabate is no world-beater but he's shown some development in the two years in the league and if he regularly plays 25 minutes or so as expected, should be looking at averaging closer to double-figures than this 7.5 number. I expect this to be a number which gets adjusted over his next few games as it becomes apparent that Diabate will be playing a comfortably bigger role than in the past this season.

Note: Just as I've finished writing this, the Hornets have put out their starting lineup with Kalkbrenner starting. Not ideal but I've already placed the bet so will leave it in - think there is still a good chance Diabate gets 20+ minutes and can get this number.

Raptors @ Hawks - Gradey Dick over 7.5 points

This is a very low number for Mr. Dick. He averaged 14.4 points in 29 minutes last season, just his second in the league, and while those numbers will likely drop with the return of a couple of Raptors starters, dropping it all the way down to 7.5 is overkill by the bookies. Dick might only get around 20 minutes tonight, but even so he's a better than even money chance of going past this number. He can admittedly be a low floor high ceiling player, which I typically don't love for over/unders, but this is so low that I'm happy to bank on him going past it even if he has an off shooting night. Dick is more than just a three-point shooter, and what's more, given he'll be playing predominantly with the bench unit he'll likely play a larger role on offense than he would were he playing with the starters. With this game also likely to be a fast-paced, high-scoring one, he should get ample opportunity in fairly limited minutes to scoot past this number

2/2. Easy money.