@wallstreetcappers
Saw this on a sports thread today and it reminded me of your attitude when you refuse to ever admit you are wrong:
“@RorySparrow: In other words, you can't come up with it because you're wrong. Btw, Google had the 1998 game i mentioned. It’s ok to be wrong, but being wrong and being snarky...that's a tough look.”
@StumpTownStu
It is basically a double survey each month. One that is essentially going around and knocking on folk’s doors. The second is the surveys from the businesses that are done in a multitude of ways.
They then compile and collate the data and extrapolate it out for the country. They have a group of economists and statisticians that evaluate all of these numbers. They then smooth out all of these by taking into account seasonal hiring and things of that sort to get a monthly number to present. They do it with advanced statistics in order to prevent sudden large spikes and dropoffs from month to month.
You can make the case very easily that something might be askew in their methodology. But the drastic difference lately is the concern.
For example, the average revision used to be around 60,000 jobs. The last couple of decades it is around 50,000 jobs.
Now, the last couple of revisions of 120,000 and 130,000 are hugely off.
For quite a few months now we have been seeing a drag on the economy in a few areas. The job market numbers were not demonstrating this however.
You can make the case that the BLS has a flawed methodology or has been lax at their job. But to deviate that much is not statistically possible without something being off somewhere. It is a reach to say, without better proof, that it has been politically motivated. But it is very odd what has been coming out of that department for the last several months.
This department is important enough, and matters an awful lot to a lot of people, that folks need a sense of accountability over there.
@StumpTownStu
Then you look at how they have been untimely with the release of the reports. Then you couple it with their early release to folks on Wall Street — the so-called ‘Super Users’. This is easily looked at as unethical at best or outright insider trading at worst.
So, while the data may not have been being skewed for political reasons, there is no doubt they are doing a very poor job.
She is the head statistician over there and responsible for producing a more timely and more accurate report. She has not been doing that for quite some time. So, she certainly needed to be fired — if not charged. I think every economist and statistician over there should have been let go.
There is a real likelihood of stagflation setting in if things are not accounted for accurately. This would be worse than a normal recession. Because the FED would be handcuffed in a sense. The inflation would be up too much to effectively lower the interest rate to try to manage things.
That is why the jobs number report needs to be more accurate. It helps in very important ways to manage the economy. I am not a fan of the FED at all, and certainly not Powell. He has been very reactionary, instead of being proactive.
This is a time that he could have been and likely would have been. He, more or less, put this out there in a nicer way by saying he did not fully trust the numbers over there.
The other thing to consider is that this is a time where the refinancing of the debt needs to be done. This could have meant around $15B a month just on interest that would be being saved.
If all of these departments are not effectively working together at a time when there is a chance to make things better — then they will only get worse and for longer.
Even the Department of Labor has said that the BLS was ‘not sufficiently focused on how key economic data are released and that the agency needed retooling’.
There is a big swing with this administration with the focus on economic policy concerning supply-side versus demand-side.
Then there is a concern with the trickeration with the bonds going on and coming up the next couple of months. They claim it not to be QE over at the Treasury Market because they are dipping into the SOMA account. But it is essentially going to be the same thing in the end, no matter what you call it.
So, I think it is too critical of a time to continue down the same path over at the BLS if the numbers cannot be trusted. It gives a sense of manipulation even if it is the change in methodology, inadequate process, or incompetence. 
Blank surveys go out to corps and companies for them to fill out, they electively fill out the requested information and submit. The BLS compiles and reports the data from the companies and that is the number that they report.
There is no ownership of numbers to which you do not create the data, they report the data. Their estimates and projections are based on historical data from previous reports and is never accurate to any degree of reliability. There cannot be a miss or make when the projection is based on historical data and especially when the month to month report is incomplete. There are revisions after revisions after revisions every single report. Companies are slow to submit the surveys so to me a better solution is to make a rolling 3-4 month average as that would give a much stronger report which is more complete and less inaccurate.
You can research what the BLS does and their function, they send out blank surveys and compile what data the COMPANIES send back, the sample size of the BLS data is quite pathetic on top of all the other flaws that this report has.
A miss is when an NBA player who holds the ball does not make a shot, a miss is not when a NBA team reporter says that a player has a 95% FT percentage and rarely misses and then the player misses....time to fire the commentator.
Pathetic...what a slimy childish retort, nothing like personal insults when you do not get your way.
Just pointing out your pathetic and childish retort when I keep proving you wrong.
There was no need for you to resort to that sort of attitude. Your snarkiness is unnecessary.
I guess Harris is on some sort of farewell tour to promote her book, & her latest "interview" was with none other than......Don Lemon. 
During this interview, she claimed she has spoken with some Trump voters (uh-huh) & they're telling her that "they felt lied to" about immigration enforcement. 'Well, we thought he was just going to go after what he said were criminals, but he's going after hardworking people.’ And they feel lied to," Harris told Lemon.
We know she's no brain surgeon, but one has to wonder ..........did Harris ever stop & think how many Trump voters became Trump voters because they were lied to by her & Biden about the border being secure? 
Looks like Harris may battle Newsom for 2028 presidency. It is said:
While former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom have avoided a direct confrontation for office in the past, their long-running political rivalry appears to be escalating as they both position themselves for a potential 2028 presidential bid. This simmering competition has intensified following Harris's 2024 presidential loss and Newsom's increasing national profile.
@THEMUGG
I might get a copy. I have a desk in the attic that needs leveling.
Very typical of that party to promote what they have in Hillary and Harris and when rejected go back to the slick hair "smooth talking" white guy. Shows their ideas are bankrupt and want power.
"First we get the jobs, then we get the khakis, then we get the girls"
That'll be funny is when the republicans run a qualified woman.
I dont get the TNC member throw down on Harris, all of the alleged qualities that you lot dislike about her and demean her with negative comments are similar to that politician you voted for and pat on the back every single day.
How is Trump any different in the attributes you TNC fans blast Harris on and why the pasadena for your guy and the hammer for Harris?
Harris as you say cackles, Trump stumbles, cackles, bumbles, studders slurs mumbles and meanders every single day.
For all the Harris bashing to me it seems partisan and very inaccurate especially because I would take Harris over Trump without thinking and it has really nothing to do for me about the party it is much more about leadership, respect, professionalism and positive impact on society. Trump is the most toxic political figure Ive ever seen and the project 2025 agenda I am strongly against. The rest of political direction comes much more from congress not the POTUS, so give me Harris every single day versus the clap trap idiot Trump.
We can check the tape, but my only objective criticism of her would be her failure to do anything noteworthy or of consequence as VP especially given inside access to the knowledge of Biden's cognitive decline. Vance is presently in a similar situation and under performing in my independent mind.
Turning criticism to the DNC, it'd be how they thought it would be prudent to run someone forced to drop out in 2016 on day 1.
The answer speaks to the TNC's longstanding conspiracy theory about the results of 2016 = they ran her, cause they thought they could control outcome.
The cackles of Harris and hyperbole of Trump are low hanging fruit for those with untenable criticisms. Both make me cringe.....as an independent.
@unplucked_gem
You are not an indy but keep telling yourself that, nothing wrong with shaping a narrative.
I do not go with the soft line of criticism either on the selection process, who cares the way it went down if anything it shows that the DNC was completely unprepared for anything other than Biden, that was the conclusion I drew. You cant go to an election where the current POTUS wants another go and then midstream it unravels so you have to find a replacement and then criticize the replacement. My comments are about the person not that she was a last minute decision, that is not her doing or her fault.
The VP issue I dont hold any thoughts about what a VP does or does not do, I cannot recall a VP making major impacts of any sort in my lifetime unless they were a major PITA seeking attention like Cheney did and what the dopey Vance is now. Outside of the attention seeking angle a VP is not going to make serious impacts, that means zippo to me I do not even put that into an analysis of the person.
My comments were that the criticisms of Harris through this entire thread are very ironic, partisan and hypocritical given that the clown you lot backed is far worse in the attributes you bash her with and Trump is just a cruddy disgusting person to boot. Its Harris any day every day for me and that is only about the qualities of leadership, communication and a completely different less self serving and zero ego garbage dump that Trump is every single day.
If the VP position is used as a platform to make a potential run for the higher office, then there has to be a learning curve at the VP level...In many case,s this is the first time the US people see this person or know of this person and so they need to make an impression to the masses to gain that respect and credibility to be considered as presidential nominee. This is really the case for any position in which one wishes to advance.
If those merits are collected, viewed and valued by the American people, then Kamala, like many others before her, failed miserably. When you are a dud, you are a dud. Harris by no means was fit to run the country if she was unfit to hold the position of VP. This is no fault of her own, as she was an appointed piece for other reasons which were certainly not merit based. Vance could be similar as well, but he has a bit of time to see how fit or unfit he may be.
@ABooksNightmare
I think your conservative critical perspective gives you a view on Harris and mine does not. Biden was in the seat during Covid and that was a very muted period of time when there were less social engagements in society and I do not consider Harris less visible than other VPs, I do not know how any VP again in my lifetime was visible and impactful, I can name all of them going back to Reagan/Bush. If anything I would say that a VP gets the opportunity if the POTUS does well and is either 2 and done or does not want to go again, so that means two and done. CIA Bush was not some public adored VP, that was not his personality and with Bush his VP did not go further, Gore should have won but after that he did not pursue again, Biden was a lifer and not a great or visible VP, Pence what did he do?
I do not see your line of thinking there nor any criticism of Harris regarding either her selection or her service as VP. I think some of you want to find a reason to tear her down and I just do not see any of what you guys are saying as valid and again I would take Harris every single minute of the day vs Trump and be thrilled that someone who respects the position and is not about self enrichment and zero ego loser speak is not in charge.
Again, I am as neutral as can be and view things as they are, not because of an affiliation. I look at facts that are in front of me and make informed decisions. If you don't remember, I am from California and know quite a bit more about Harris than most of you did prior to her being appointed as VP simply because she was in my State, just as you all would about someone from your State who would be in the news and you would see what they are doing.. My view is based on facts both prior to her being VP and during. She is a hot mess and has been even in California. My argument was not who would be best take over, Harris over Trump, my argument was about the fact that if the VP is a stepping stone to becoming a presidential nominee, then Harris did a poor job of that. She was unfit to be VP based on my following her in California and she certainly did zero to change my mind as VP. In my opinion, base on what I have seen of her and know about her, she is a dud.
@ABooksNightmare
And of course you are right to make your own conclusions. I am not from Calif but did look at her past and I dunno looks quite vanilla to me, she worked her way through a political path and i find the comments others made in the past about female and sleeping her way up...that is juvenile and sexist, very offensive. She seemed to do a great job from my view in her court positions. Ive seen partisan comments about Harris and her style, not sure I took the conclusion because the sources mentioning here are partisan and biased and were looking to smear her, I discount those extremist comments as I do on both sides of the coin.
I would compare her to a few politicians here in AZ that worked their way through the system from different routes and for the most part I have no issue with them so Hobbs and Gallego and Kelly and even Sinema before she went bananas and flamed out. I consider Harris a moderate DNC individual who is very intelligent and works hard, I think she did a great job as VP she was not on camera trashing foreign governments and having partisan cat fights, I would take Harris over Vance every single day of the week as a VP and for sure as POTUS.
I just do not see the view some of you have and especially the biting partisan nasty comments in this thread and others about her, that is not how I see her at all.
"You are not an indy but keep telling yourself that, nothing wrong with shaping a narrative."
My voter registration card would suggest other wise.
Paragraph 1
The DNC's campaign to cover Joe's cognitive decline is what afforded legitimacy to his "wanting another go" which was not feasible.
They were not unprepared they were painted into a corner of their own making *which partly yielded the initial/only Biden presidency.
Paragraph 2
You're mostly accurate on merits, I am talking about optics for VP's with legitimate sights on the next presidency. An example, I am not a Pence guy but him tooling around the North Korea border was optically significant. To the individual invested in politics it wouldn't mean zippo to the less ardent observer, it's everything.
Paragraph 3
Six of one........
44.1 million registered democrats. 100 million unaffiliated/independent voters. Harris, her accomplishments, and all the other attributes listed were rejected in favor of Trump.
The average person did so factoring what Trump was willing, and could, do for the country versus what Harris hadn't. Especially in the face of an incapable Biden that played out before there very eyes.
Disagree and mock me, but its what happened.
As I stated before, rather than belittle the likes of me your side should embrace the opportunity to change my vote as they next cycle is truly anyone's game.
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