NFL WEEK 10 .............................2025

Total Yards Margin ...................

How much each team outgains their opponents.

Remember  SB Winners peak in total yards margin on the 2cd half of the season.

So who is most unlikely to not peak in total yards margin the the 2cd half ???

Well, well, well, that'd  be Mahomes and KC. 

+100.5. It is not impossible  but not likely.

Interesting  as it is, Chargers are 2cd at 81.63, with Broncos 3rd at 75.5.

Wow all 3 from the same division.

Next is Bills 74.25 and Packers 74

Let's  look at the top 2 teams of divsion leaders  ave yards margin.

AFC west obviously leads ave 78.57

NFC North ave 65

AFC East Ave 63.5

NFC West ave 61.07

NFC South ave 21.44

AFC West easily leads with the next 3 grouped pretty close together and AFC South way back.

Let's consider this ........pts per plays margin. 

We'll  take any division  with the top 2 teams have good records.

Which divsion has the worst ave of the top 2 ......

Oh AFC West ........Broncos 9th and Chargers 19th. Ave 14th

Best total yards margin but the worst pts per plays margin

Colts/Jags ave 11th place

Pack/Lions ave 6.5th place

Bills/Pats ave 5.5

The best Rams/Seahawks ave 2cd.

Now let's consider SOS ................

By far the worst ......AFC East, Bills/Pats

By far the best ........NFC West, Rams/Seahawks.

Of the top 2 teams no division has both top 2 teams playing a positive SOS except the NFC West.

AFC West has both teams a negative SOS are in 3rd raked KC with a negative SOS.

When we add it all up the best division looks like the NFC West at least according to this info.

Not sure if this info will be useful but hopefully I can look up past years and get some good metrics for futures plays after 8 weeks.

I like the Saints this week, but I really feel that Arizona's play last week, while admittedly against a bad team, makes them a no play for me. Seattle is due a regression, but it seems to me so is Arizona...even granting that division games tend to be closer.

Keep in mind Seahawks play Rams next week could be for division title with tiebreakers, all depends  on how the rest of season goes but very possible.

Possible look ahead game VS Zona

@garbagetime

While it is only 9 points, ARZ has scored more than they allowed this season.

The Bounce Factor ...................7-1 ATS

WASH +9.5 (-125) over Lions --- 1.25 units

Wash has now lost 3 straight games by 21 pts or more.

In the process their defense gave up the most points and 2cd most pts they've given up all season. And the 4th most.

And at the same time their offense scored the fewest pts and 2cd fewest pts they've scored all season.

Sounds pretty extreme to me, play has to be on Wash or no play.

Line has been dropping , I did see +9's and even a +9.5 earlier in the week wanted to grab the +9.5 but thought maybe it'd hit +10 seeing how pathetic Wash has been.

But then the next morning  everything was down to +8.5 or lower.

Now with the opportunity to get that same +9.5 I took it even having to lay -125.

But I'd still take Wash regardless.

To put this into proper perspective of the 7 covers the closest cover to the spread was by 3.5 pts.

The ave cover is by like  6.5 pts to 5.5 depending  on the line you got.

If the best line you could get was +9.5 which is the best I've seen if Wash covers by 3.5 Lions would need to win by 6 pts.

Lions pts per plays margin at home .....   .292

On road .....    (-.074)

Wow big difference. 

Wash past 1 game  (-.566)

Past 3 games (-.380)

If we keep in mind teams don't sustain either + or - over .200.

Then Wash only has 1 way to go.

Teams can sustain over .200 at home or on the road and -.200 as well at home or on the road.

I looked that up and saw 2 teams over .300 at home.

2012 Seahawks Russ Wilson's rookie year and 2014 Packers with Arod both at home.

Many teams were over .200 at home or on the road but cannot do it overall very often.

Most likely I'd suspect where a team plays weakest opps either at home or in road could play some role and just flat out being very good at home for example I think is what Lions do.

Bator Alert .............Bator Alert .............

Rams outscored past 2 opponents 35-7 and 34-10 with a bye in-between which I don't think matters.

Didn't see anyone catch this.

However before we get to excited We are not supposed  to play this if a division game and Rams do play 9ers a division opponent. 

But I have seen it win but not sure the overall % of wins in this spot.

In past 3 games Rams .347 pts per plays is not really sustainable over the long run but whether that comes this week or not this info does not tell us . 

Claw, when 2 division teams play each other under the Bator rule, the team under this rule is 13-12 ATS

@theclaw

 Lions off a loss and huge revenge spot after wsh eliminated them in playoffs last year

Although 9.5 is a boatload of points

Thanks for posting that .................

Yes seems a good soot for the Lions for sure ......

But Lions haven't been anywhere near as good on the road as they have been at home.

My one saving grace is backing Wash next week If Wash fails to deliver here.

If Lions don't cover then I'd think a really great spot to back them next week and if many start doubting them the spot gets even better which is what i am hoping we see.

Wash could be a play under my new BF II regression method.

Just depends on how I measure it. Currently I use a minimum performance  each week but if I were to use that minimum as an average  of each week then the method has a play on Wash.

Wash doesn't meet the minimum each week but they are well above that minimum with average of each week as they had bad weeks with one really bad week which brings the average  way up.

Remember  this method is new so there could be things to add to it that might make it better.

Last week the method using average of each week did have a fade on the Colts VS Steelers and won.

Colts had a really monster game in the method to bring their average above the minimum similar to Wash having a really bad game.

I was aware of it but not sure if I should use it that way.

I'm trying to not bet the Saints this season at all. They are in the driver's seat for the #1 overall pick, and boy do they need it. 

However, I do like betting on teams that were sellers at the trade deadline shortly after. Saints and Jets were both sellers, but I like the Jets more this week.

The Rams have looked pretty good lately, but the Niners looked great last week. +5.5 in SF is way too high IMO. With the Niners inflation of recent years, I wouldn't have been surprised if SF opened at -1 for this game. Crossing +3, +4, and +5 areas seems like way too many points for how well they've played. 

@slamspurs

 I have wagered on them last 2 weeks… odds are in their favor… I just think the folks in charge… coach n qb… are not nfl caliber… gonna take my losses and watch.    That should help saints today.  ??

Claw so your only play is washington or am I reading this wrong!

Yes 9ers seem like the play. From what I understand  line went up when Purdy was ruled out......................

Jones has done well enough and division game and I think dogs will do it again today.

Saints look horrendous but I still feel they will have their day.

Ha,ha yes will likely help them ...............

But what it does say is how much they hit rock bottom when people willing to play on them are now afraid. So only 1 way to go and that is up.

Happened to me many times over the years......

I'll post pending plays now ....... 3 plays ..........

Pending Plays ...............

Zona +7.5 (-120) over Seahawks --- 1.2 units

Saints +5.5 over Panthers ---- 1.1 units

Wash +9.5 (-125) over Lions --- 1.25 units

Looks like 7's available on Zona but I'd still take 6.5 obviously 7 is better.

Wash even at +7.5 id take it but try for 8 or 8.5. I see 8's put there.

Keep in mind the Bounce factor of the 7 wins the closest to a push is 3.5 pts all other wins were by 5.5 pts or better beating the line.

1 or 2 pt here or there in most cases won't matter.

But it will bite you once in a while maybe 3, 4 times a year. So always try to avoid those time if possible.

2 weeks ago favorites covered 11-2 ATS and they did very well the week before pretty much telling us a peak was in place.

Then last week .......... BINGO...... dogs go 9-5 ATS

Well the 2cd half is very likely to reverse from the 1st half and we should see dogs again this week get the upper hand on this runaway train favorites covering.

And as I pointed out last week Colin once again is talking , back favorites,. Last week a good cappers was talking , this is a new era the favorites now will be the play not dogs because of all the rule changes and so far he is dead wrong.

All the books do is jack the lines untill the dogs days come. 

From what I see on you tube pretty much everyone likes the Lions, crazy as it is for all the same reasons.

Off a loss and they've  won big next game but nobody mentioned that was at home. Big difference  to on the road.

Pts per Plays Margin ..........

Lions at home ............. .292

Road ............. (-.074)

Lions outplayed on the road thus far 

With some saying Wash season is over so players don't care. Which is more myth then reality.

And guys saying Wash is pathetic pointing out past 3 games giving up 44 and 38 pts in 2 of those.

But that is exactly why you want to bet on them.

Talking how they've  given up,  have no reason to play hard and try to win. I've been down this road many, many times over the years and this kind of talk is more myth then reality.

But this talk is repeated most every year and they don't seem to catch on.

Wadh is more then likely going to have their big day in the sun, it is coming soon. Might not be today but could be today. but be it is coming very soon.

And 1 guy did report Lions a big public team this week with sharps on Wash that is why line is going down as respected money is on Wash.

. Joe's VS Pro's type game.

Many Pro's know about regression similar to what I use. I measure it differently  a little more specific spots they use it more general spots.

So I won't be on every soot they use, some of their games I disagree with the use.

I agree with the dogs,look at monday night. Who in there right mind wouldn't take phil getting points again st the packers who have played terrible the last 3 weeks and lost there best receiver for the year. if this is not a trap what is!

Westgate competition, top five this week:

TB 278 -2.5
PHI 267 2.5
DET 246 -8
PIT 191 3
BAL 190 -4

The top five picks are 18-27 on the season: faves 13-15, dogs 5-12.

Detroit, Carolina, Buffalo are the most-bet teams I'm seeing on consensus sites. Generally I like to fade teams when they get over 80% of tickets; Lions have 92% at one site, Carolina and Buffalo 83%.

Dogs look like they be 2-0 ATS with Thursday night and international  games going to OT.

Colts -6.5 wont kick extra pt.