Bibendi Special #15(12-2)

I don't think any one that has seen both of these teams play more than once can argue that this line is askew. Can bama win? Sure, but I won't be betting on it. I believe it will be close til the 4th qtr & then we'll see the difference that having Tebow instead of Wilson makes.

 

 JMO.......plain & simple  

So conclude the Florida section of my senior thesis we have FSU. This game was obviously just 2 days ago and Florida looked good. It was in a monsoon mind you. But still impressive. So lets see how much FSU tried to pound the ball and how many turnovers they created. Then if Florida was able to run on them. Here goes...Florida looked explosive on their first drive again. They ran and passed down the field and Harvin scored from 9 yards out. Florida then uncharacteristically gave up a negative special teams play. FSU tried pounding it twice but ended up settling for a field goal. Florida got the ball back and when held to a yard running on 1st down, they got sacked on second down and forced into 3rd and long. Not sure I have seen them convert more than 1 3rd and long this year. FSU then had a big play and penalty on Florida before Ponder committed the ultimate sin against Florida. An interception. What came off of this turnover, obviously a touchdown. No shocker there. On this touchdown drive they ran it 6 times in a row before Tebow threw that hideous pass across his body for the touchdown. FSU then had another big return before driving down to the Gators 34 when they came up short on 3rd and 1. FSU punted it away rather than go for it and Florida fumbled on the next possession giving FSU some life. However, ANOTHER false start of FSU limited them to a field goal. Florida had 6 rushign plays and 4 passing(2 completions) on their next drive. Obviously we know by now what makes this team tick. The next FSU drive really pisses me off when I cap for this game. FSU has great success rushign the ball. 5 out of their first 6 plays were rushes and they drove down to the Florida 14 yardline. So what do they do? They pass it on consecutive plays and incomplete on both. WHY??? They tack on the field goal to make it 21-9 just before half. Tebow comes out right before half and rips my analysis to shreds by throwing 5 straight completions and a 24 yard touchdown. I'll still take my chances with him slinging the ball around 28-9 at half is not what FSU wanted and they could no longer run the ball to catch up. So first play Ponder drops back and throws an interception. Game Over. Analysis over. FSU had success when they focused on running the ball and Florida once again thrived on turnovers. FSU was unable to stop the Florida run

 

 

You don't usually hear that about a 49-10 game. 

 

I see a common theme.....run the ball to beat FL.  Unfortunately, it's hard to do when you're 14-17 points behind.

 

I respect the efforts, but you can't just discount FL's wins in these games as other teams making too many mistakes and not sticking to the run. 

 

This reminds me a lot of Giants/Bills SB or even Giants/Pats.  IF you think Alabama can exert their will on FL in the running game, force them into making mistakes, make few or none themselves, and smack their offense in the mouth, then take Bama.

Trouble is, I think FL is tougher then the Bills and Pats were....and I don't trust J.P. Wilson when it's nut cutting time.  Alabama had to toy with Auburn for half where FL bith-slapped FSU from the word go. 

 

I know the formula for Bama to cover or pull the upset....I'm just not sure they have it in them. 

 

 

So before I begin my Bama analysis I want to touch on what I am looking for if I want to bet on Bama. I want a team that can stop the run. I also want to see Harvin isnt playing. That guy makes this entire Florida team tick. I dont care if they put up good stats when he isnt playing, he is huge. Even as a decoy his influence on the game is awesome. I want to see a team that hangs on the ball and doesnt commit stupid turnovers than Florida can feast on. Lastly and most importantly, I want a team that runs the ball effectively and keeps the Florida offense off the field. So lets see what weve got....

 

 

 

 

 

Still have the Bama portion of the thesis left. I still cant believe people arent seeing that a team like Bama is made to beat Florida. Not saying they will beat them, but if I had to pick a team to do it, it would be a tie between USC and Bama

Bibendi its cool bro.. noone does. either way last time fl beat them it was by 1... this game stays within the point spread. Its meant to be. Bama will have one last chance to pull the su win but either way will be covered by the 10.. Also i believe this line will drop

Bib,

 

Lovin the write ups man and would love to know where you get the info on the games. I was hoping you would break down the Flo- USC game but I know how it went. The S.C. D only gave up 35 points to Florida and it would have been les if we had a F****** Offense. We forced Flo to punt 6 times and forced a couple of turnovers. Florida does give up rushing yards and Bama is a Rushing team. Florida has more speed and playmakers than Bama, but I think Bama can nutrolize(sp) this by running the ball which will kill the clock and keep Tebow and co. off the field. Keep it coming brother and any tips that you can give me in handicapping will be much apriciated.

Time to continue. So we know what it takes to hang with Florida. Just wait until you see how this sets up for Bama. First game of the year 5 point dogs against Clemson on a neutral field. I actually played Clemson here First drive of the game goes like this. Run, run, run, run, run, run, etc. I like it already. They actually decide to pass the ball eventually and end up settling for a field goal. Clemson gets the ball and turns it over 2nd play. Oh if Alabama were to force a few fumbles...Alabama then goes run, pass, run, run, incomplete for another field goal. JPWSo Clemson, who is known for having 2 great running backs, gets the ball and Davis runs for -3 yards on 2 carries before another incompletion forces a punt. Bama gets the ball back and passes on the 1st play, followed up by 6 consecutive runs to get in the endzone. Amazing. This is just the team I'm looking for against Florida. Clemson hits a big play in the air on the next drive before getting down to the Alabama 14. Run on first down for a loss, sack on 2nd down before settling for a field goal. The next drive for Alabama was impressive. A 16 play drive that ate up over 8 minutes of clock. Can you say exactly the way to beat Florida. I'm not here claiming Clemson's D is anywhere near as good as Floridas, but they def. arent bad. They will have this same plan against Florida. Focus on stopping the run, run the ball all day and keep their offense off the field and they even had a methodical 2 minute drill drive to end the half after forcing Harper to throw a pick. A huge point of caution is Alabama allowed a kick return TD right after halftime. Florida is very good at this. Cant have that come Saturday A couple 3 and out drives before Alabama had another 7 minute drive covering 14 plays. That was pretty much the game other than Alabama playing some more impressive defense. Clemson ran the ball 14 times for 0 yards. Alabama ran it 50 times for 239 yards. Alabama also did not commit a single turnover that Florida will feast off of. WOW.

 

Installment 2(Alabama @ Georgia) coming soon

thoughts at 9.5 like the spread is now?  buy the hook?

Alright another game where I faded the Tide. They travelled to Georgia and if I remember correctly this was the blackout game. I loaded up on Georgia thinking they would expose this team as slow and untalented. After 6 minutes and 30 seconds I knew I had taken the wrong side. Alabama drove right down the field running the  ball and mixing in the play-action pass before scoring a td on a 7 yard run to shut up the Athens crowd. Georgia had some success on their next drive but ended up stalling out at the 47 yard line after 2 17 yard passes. Alabama got the ball back and 6/7 plays they ran the ball but got stuffed on 3rd and 1 from the 4 and forced to kick a field goal. Georgia went 3 and out and Alabama got the ball back where they ran it on the first two plays and hit a play action pass to Julio Jones for 31 yards to the 5. I think Julio will be huge in the outcome of this game. Alabama is going to run the ball all day but when they go play-action it will Julio who is targeted. He has had an incredible freshman year and has a knack for the big play. Anyway, 2 rushing plays later it was touchdown Bama and a 17-0 lead. Game over. Georgia got the ball back and on 3rd down hit AJ Green for a big gainer before he fumbled. Florida and Alabama are both similar in that they live off of these turnovers. The key to me is that Florida struggles without them, whereas Alabama is in a better position without them. So Alabama gets the ball back and runs it a few times, ho hum, touchdown 24-0. Georgia picks up 1 first down and then has to punt, Alabama gets it and another touchdown, 31-0. This 41-30 final is much more impressive than Floridas 49-10. Georgia never had a chance in this game. Sure they scored 30 second half points, but 7 of those were a punt return(UH OH!)  and the last 2 were with less than 5 minutes on the clock, one after an onside kick. So I dont want to hear all these comparisons to the Georgia game. While it was still a game(which it never really was), Alabama just dominated both sides of the ball....Oh and btw, Georgia 16 carries for 50 yards, Alabama 45 carries for 129 yards and Alabama only turned the ball over once.

 

Installment 3(Kentucky @ Alabama) coming soon

" I think FL is tougher then the Bills and Pats were....and I don't trust J.P. Wilson when it's nut cutting time.  Alabama had to toy with Auburn for half where FL bith-slapped FSU from the word go. "

 

Hutch,

 

you really think Fla is a stronger team (fav)than NE was last yr and Bama is not as good as NY? I am, doing exactly what you are thinking. I see the game needed to be played like that. And I think Saban is a good enough coach to do it. And I think the same thing about Tebow as I though about Brady...every QB can't throw from his back. Tebow is human, just like Brady was. Its real different with someone in your face. Don't let them dictate the game, bring the fight to them. Not saying Bama definately wins, but I think its way better game than a 10+ blowout. GL man.

bibendi, been watching your picks all season long, your good, especially your specials. props to you. finally got around to making an account. i have bet on both of these teams a ton in the past 6 weeks, and i like both of them a lot, hard for me to choose, but this post helps a little bit, bol to you this week

Ok Kentucky @ Alabama. Alabama coming into this one as the hottest team in the country. Forced to punt early as they get away from running the ball. Kentuckys first possession sees them go 3 and out as well until Mr. Saban decides he wants to run the ball agian. 2 plays later Coffee runs it in from 78 yards out and boom, 7-0 Alabama. Kentucky has a nice return on the kick and picks up a quick first down before punting the ball away again. Alabama then put together a 12 play drive covering 80 yards mainly on the ground. It ended with Tiffin missing a field goal. However, as good teams do(Florida included), Alabama forced a fumble and ran it in for a touchdown to take an early 14-0 lead. All looked well in Tuscaloosa. They forced another quick punt and got the ball on their 35. Wilson hit a couple receivers and got the ball down to the Kentucky 10 yard line where they faced a 3rd and 3. And Kentucky committed the cardinal sin. Turned it over with Coffee fumbling. If he does that more than once against Florida, it is game over. So rather than it being at worst 20-0 with those missed opportunities, it was 14-0 and Kentucky still had life. They got the ball after the fumble and went 3 and out. So far they have converted 2 whole 3rd downs and are having no success on the ground. Alabama took over with good field position but decided to pass the ball and went 3 and out quickly. Kentucky hit for 2 first downs on the ensuing drive but stalled out again just outside of field goal range, which is always a sign of a great defense. Alabama got back to what is successful on their next drive by pounding it with Ingram and Coffee. They were gashing the Wildcat D for a minimum of 5 yards a play until the ref called them for holding and the drive stalled out. So far this game has been like every game for Bama. They have dominated the clock and their defense has been dominating. The half would end 14-0. Kentucky got the ball to start the 2nd half. They went 3 and out and then on the very next play JPW threw an interception. Luckily it was on a bomb and Kentucky took over at their own 15. These turnovers will not be welcome in the Florida game. So Kentucky once again went 3 and out and punted it over to Alabama. At this point the game has the feel of a 31-0 blowout even though it is 14-0. I get the feeling Saban understood they were in control of this game and he just continued to pound the clock. They ran the ball 3 straight times and punted. Kentucky got the ball and went 3 and out but on their punt the Alabama returned muffed it and Kentucky went on to recover. Incredibly this lead to nothing again as they ended up going for it on that 4th down and got stuffed. Alabama on their possession got another penalty, this one a bullshit offensive P.I. that killed the drive. Kentucky finally took advantage of this and hit 2 consecutive big plays, one being a 26 yard touchdown pass. The Alabama defense had to be getting tired and the offense was doign them no favors going 3 and out and fumbling punts. So Bama gets the ball back and tries passing it again. There is no way they beat Florida in the air. They will need a steady dose of Coffee and Ingram. Saban realized this and ran the ball 6 times before the end of the 3rd quarter before missing another field goal!! Tiffin has been bad of late, small concern of course. But at this point the game should be out of hand. Fumble at 10, 2 missed field goals, 10 penalties. They didnt necessary play any worse than they had in previous games, they just didnt play smart. Very odd for a Saban team and I dont expect that to happen again. So Kentucky got the ball back with an opportunity to tie it up and the Bama defense held again. What ensued was their most impressive drive of the year with the game on the line. 15 plays, 76 yards in 8 mins and 10 seconds. 13 running plays! What a drive with the game on the line. If your team can do this late in a game you are basically unstoppable with a lead. So yeah Kentucky got the ball back with 2:12 on the clock and scored a lame touchdown but it didnt matter. Game was Over. This game in no way is a deterrent to me betting on the Tide. I am actually impressed with the way they played. They arent going to beat teams 63-5 like Florida. They are built to win games though. This one could have easily been 31-7 and noone at the stadium would have argued

Can I be excused for a few hours professor?? My hands hurt!

For all of this work I could excuse you for the rest of the year (but then I could throw my winning ways out the window)......so I guess a few hours is ok with me.

 

Thanks for all u do Bi.

 

you call that a write up

 

BOL this week