ARIZ ST +2
is this another 2024 playoff team loss? I feel like Baylor gad a lot of covers in2024 snd I’m not confident in them covering this season. Both these teams on my regression list. It’s too early in the season to make a pick on either.
MICH -2
It’s my team and they are not strong. Complete team in regression.
I am not betting Nebraska though. They have a poor history of winning games and I’m guessing this is a loss and that will possibly elevate Michigan into a territory that will make them a fade. Fade is both these team but no value on either here.
S.Miss +3 they should be improving from 2024 and I don’t find much exciting about Louisiana Tech. I don’t think this is a strong enough play to consider. The line is based upon Lou Tech staying with in a considerable amount vs.LSU that’s why I like the dog.
@undermysac
On paper I agree and I changed my tune l, a little bit influenced by the respect we have going this season.
losing the last 4 spread by a combined 100 points or close to it attracts my attention based upon the elevated lines.
the opposite to that is often enough lines don’t save bad teams having bad seasons. That is the case here. Until Coastal shows it’s time to back off their games.
I support your play.
@jp1lsu
probably right on but when I bet on favorites I stink. I can’t get comfortable with my line evaluations.
Then games get back doored. I’ll just stick to what I do best and pass on games like Colorado this week. They should take care of business but it’s such a switch if they do.
uf they cover this week it’s because this team is better than the line and their opponents suck. They were a good dog but now when dogs they are not getting enough points.
it’s a valuation flip from past 2 seasons.
@spottie2935
Revenge game for TCU…SMU seems to have taken a step back this season, and is giving up yards on D in droves. I think TCU has the better QB. Motivation by Dykes to beat his former team. I like TCU to cover the reasonable chalk. It probably will make my card. But good luck to you.
@spottie2935
Why do you like Ga State +26.5 over @Vandy? Sure, a possible let down spot after whipping P4 Va Tech and SC by 24 points each in the road. But, if you recall, I think after they upset Bama last season, Ga St upset Vandy. Vandy has Utah St on deck at home which is coached by Bronco M. Based on history one could say “why is Vandy giving up points to anyone? But, Lea is a good coach, Vandy is ranked, and I think they will open a can of proverbial Whoop Ass” on a very bad Ga State Team. My prediction Vandy 45 Ga St 3…and a Vandy cover…
@LonghornHoosier
You ask questions and walk away so I’ll keep it short. How many games has candy been a favor rite recently and what were the lines and did Vandy cover? It’s history and they have none. Until they show me that they can change their play style as a chalk and show consistent ats results after big wins in fading. I have said many times some teams no matter the past are teams. I looked at the stats and GA St stinks oh well I’m making Candy beat me with an over adjusted line. Bettors Trust Vandy because of the season they are having. I don’t. In big lined games until they show out.
@LonghornHoosier
Yes and SMU is a playoff team from 2024 and I don’t have the game in my final card. My focus is not SMU it’s TCU. They finished last season hot and currently elevating beyond the lines.
TCU has failures coming because I believe their scheduling and lines become more difficult.
In 2024 TCU played the hard part of their schedule early in the season and were 2-7 ATS. They closed out 2024 with better lines because of their early season struggles and the soft opponents late in the season:
Ok State
Arizona
Cincy
Louisiana Laf
N.Carolina 2025
They were over favored last week and finally failed after many successful cover in a row.
They were on the road in week 1 vs N Carolina who obviously has a bad roster and needs time and growth. Now TCU is -6.5 to a playoff team.
They need to show me and prove it to me. The problem I have is, and I’m confused is SMU. Are they capable of elevating and staying within a dog line or are they another team that TcU can handle. I can’t put my finger on them yet.
TCU is ripe for regression and SMU is currently in regression. The way I bet I want TCU to dominate but I don’t trust SMU because SMU was in the bracket and so far betting in bracket teams suck. The opposite side of this is SMU is a dog against like competition. I have this line at pickem, but I also nay need to adjust
SMU list to Baylor as a favorite but Baylor is better than TCU. Now SMU is getting points.
Now that I put this into words in more detail I’m making my mind convinced SMU is the play and the line is over adjusted.
In my mind It’s the way college works elevation for simplistic lines. when a favorite starts heating up. Be patient for the lines to adjust and failure looms. These are the concerns for favorites that are much better as dogs. They gain covers as dogs and the lines adjust and its failures.
Georgia Tech on my list now too. But I need to see Temple before I place a pregame bet on Temple. These big lines make great in game bets because early first quarter scores by either team and the lines don’t adjust too much, because early scores can be a fluke. Well in some cases they are but in the teams ripe for an adjustment or in Georgia Tech situation this seems like a scheduling flat spot.
instead of posting temple I’ll just wait and play the game as it plays out. Maybe I get a better line or maybe I see something that shows me something early. Maybe I can’t figure it out and I just pass.
Temple had the same line last week but that was a home game vs. Oklahoma. Same line this week against GTCH that is historically best as a dog.
the line is right but I have to bet on an erratic Temple team.
Line is right and their opponent is in a soft spot.
This is a game that’s lined like less or a matchup game more about situations and line based upon elevation or the dog team in Gtch. I don’t trust these big lined favorites.
The games are Georgia South vs Vandy and Temple vs Georgia Tech because of the line differences. The line differences the books can hide us a bigger line because of the past score success.
Maybe THE problem is these dog teams in favorite positions are not as talented to be laying so many points and in certain there is a lack of motivation to pound the opponent. These teams rarely get the opportunity to play their depth players as well. Thats just a guess.
Being 55-50 in the early weeks is fantastic and it should be much better. I didn’t get on the correct under games in week 1 and 2 and I get too many favorites. As far as the others it means I am on point.
The early weeks are difficult because of the FBS scheduling. The lack of soft spots and elevation against a crap FBS team is not as meaningful within a future game line.
Week 4 begins but a far as the lines are concerned the season is still very young. The books still fail to get close on certain game but I love the volatility from that. Past week 4 I really start getting a better picture.
The real season begins this week.
TCU beat N Carol and an FCS and now the consensus is 75% on them to cover in the king of covers vontest.
Win or lose this is how bookies beat players. The psychology on TCU being strong does not have enough data and confirmation at this point in the season. All the offensive and defensive stats on them are based upon previous opponents weak power ratings. SMU rating are less than last season but as a dog it’s possible they elevate this week.
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