55-50 ATS… Week 4

@MrFreedo

 Thats not good ill have to look deeper as well.  Maybe previous ranked teams as dogs are trusted too much.  

That Miami OH line is now +2.  

@paperprophets

N. TX, M. Oh, Purdue, Auburn, and SC were also ones I have identified as possible plays. 

Like it Spottie 

South Bama is decent. That is the only good play I had this past week vs Auburn

I made all the early cuts I needed to make and here is the list but I might add some and I will add some totals. 

These are my current selection with current lines.  I could use the better lines I have posted but it’s no matter here.  

Duke-3 

W.Mich +14

Fla Gators +7.5

Miami O +2.5

Georgia S +27.5

Troy +6

N.ILL +22

Most overrated Home favorite ranked team this week is and will be Miami FL.  Florida has value on the moneyline. 

Beating Notre Dame doesn’t look as good because of their struggles.  -50 to cookman and only -17 exposing an overrated South Florida team.  I smell something 

@spottie2935

 I was on S. Bama vs Tulane, passed on them @ Auburn, they surprised me. Exceeding expectations all year.

I hear what you're saying about the line this weekend. It's a touch tall because of both teams performances.

Dies Purdue keep rolling until their lives adjust.  I want to roll with them again but I fear failure. Honestly I might consider adding them again this week

N.Carolina as well in a good situation to rebalance their Poor ats results recently as well.  When their schedule becomes more difficult will be their possible demise. 

TCU ? They are in my fade alert. 
I feel like they play the weak very well.  This will be an ingame bet if the right opportunity arises. 

I look hard at opportunities where the favorite is questionable.  I also don’t look for the easy opportunities against bad favorites.  Avoid betting against games that stick out like a sore thumb. 

A little bit of my take on the games I like 

Army+ 2.5

this isn’t all my take. LAST 2 first game me the heads up.  One think I did not see in my initial early look back was the demolition NTexas displayed last week.  I find Army to be in a better situation based upon a fade of N.Texas after their excellence last week.  

SMU +7 

Im not a big dog fan of previous ranked team that fell off the top 25 map.Aldo name recognition after making the bracket last season. as much as the data I find has a plain on them, I can’t pull the trigger on such playoff teams that have for the most part failed ATS tremendously this season 

Temple +24 

Georgia St +27.5 

These teams (Vandy and Georgia tech) are favorite killers.  That’s what they do when they have strong teams. They don’t get elite superstars at the key talent positions.  They play to kill slowly and it’s only if they force the other team in to a disastrous mistakes  all game to be able to climb these lines.  

I am very confident one of these dogs cover I just selected Geo Southn as a better fit.  Vandy has very little data when a favorite and this many points is complete elevation.  

UNC+7 it’s very possible they keep covering and heading north this week.  I didn’t play them on my card this week as I don’t see much line separation as previously the last 2 weeks.  CFLA doesn’t scare me too much though. 

MIAMI O+2.5 

people remember week one when UNLV couldn’t stop Idaho St? 
well that’s in the past I guess but it’s still looming in my brain.  How does a win vs. A school(UCLA) fir with UNLV and a rare road favorites with a decent amount of travel?  Seems like they could be less focused and like I said if not focused they could look unprepared like week 1.  UNLV is much improved but their consistency and being on the road is not consistent of who they have been in the past.   

We will see 

Florida +7.5 

After a loss an underdog game sits differently. The same line as #3 LSU last week and. Big loss. Now it’s#4 Miami Fl.  

We all see the Flubberation of the Gators last week.  I am predicting Miami a little but less than LSU.

Louisville -26 

Clearly my weak history of picking proficient favorites is non existent.  I just wanted to comment on -26 and the difference between this line and -14 to Liberty.  If I am fan of betting against mediocre MAC teams this could be it.  I’m just not a good favorite picker. 

Duke -3 

week 4 favorites that has not covered against a decent team.  They lost to currently elite Illinois( I don’t have confidence they stay this high all season, non the less) and a good Tulane team. I don’t feel as strongly about NCST and I’m pretty sure Duke wants a win at home.  I get a good QB too.  

W.MICH +14

I played this game based upon the line and last weeks high line against Illinois,  0 point effort.  

I believe this game has an expanded line.  Toledo played Morgan, throw that out, western Kentucky well their conference is a joke now not the team of old. Toledo score 45 against them.  Not impressed.  They lose to Jentucky by 8 In Week 1 as a nice dog.  I see this as a close game to the end of a back door opportunity because the line is structured so. 

Troy +6

Buffalo is elevated too much here.  They covered against Minne in week one which gives them relevance. Then played an FCS then failed against the worst MAC from 2023-24 

This is either I miss this game because Buffalo was so bad last week or I make this because Troy was equally as terrible last week.  
I get a dog in this game that is more tested against better opponents coming off a bad game.  In a lot of matchups I’m not scared away from MAC favorites 

Think Florida is done and may need a new coach Sunday if Miami rolls them

Coastal *15 

These games always hit my list but it seems I fail in these because there is always one team that is a season failure. 2025  Coastal could be this team.  I’ll wait to see if they can find elevation. 

Colo St+5

I don’t find UTSA to be this elevated on the road. The Rams have a very experienced QB but I’m not certain on their roster. Only 2 games against FBS and a big line vs Washington.  Why would I bother?  UTSA finished very strong in 2024 and usually it’s hard to keep elevated. To me this could be a soft spot against a decent WB tgat potentially has an opportunity to take them out. 

Auburn+6.5 

Fading Oklahoma here because I’m not confident in them as of yet.  A lopsided win vs Temple and taking down Michigan tgat is on the rebound isn’t impressive to me.   Even a win and cover here isn’t enough for elevation. 

Auburn can play like against Baylor they can keep it close. Their last 2 uninspiring games could have been look ahead to this one.