@Dannice14
So there were basically 4 options I looked at.
2-0 was -154
-4.5 was -128
Under 20.5 was -118
But the under with peg ML was +108. If you are asking why I wouldn't parlay 2-0 with the under instead I don't believe that the odds would've been any different if they even allowed it since like you said it would be very highly unlikely to stay under 20.5 if it went to 3
@JoseAlonso787
That's how I'm leaning too.
But I also kind of have a feeling that Gauff wins. Nothing about her form here would suggest that but I have that feeling. But if I do end up taking Gauff it would probably be after watching a few games. Will be looking at Gauff's face for either that emotionless blank stare she has when she's in the zone or that look towards her team that screams help.
Yeah it's that blank emotionless look
@JoseAlonso787
She was so composed for most of that first set. Even when Sabs broke her the first time she didn't seem bothered at all and broke right back. She is so dangerous when she has that kind of demeanor.
And she goes the entire set without a DF until the most crucial moment. Hits 72% of first serves in play and wins 70% of second service points. You practically never see a player lose a set with those numbers.
Under normal circumstances she probably still has a good chance to make a match of it in the second set but she went into the match knowing she pretty much needed to take it in 2 so she was completely deflated in the second. But yeah, in hindsight the first set over was the logical play and given their history against each other I'm really kicking myself for not recognizing the clear value in over 10.5 & 12.5 there.
@bringit
For sure. I loved the 9’ (-120) and only hit it to win 1.5 unit. Usually when I get the (very strong) feeling that I had when I saw it and assessed it, I’ll end up making my max play (to win 5 units). I talked myself out of it and over analyzed it by talking myself into the “let’s just see how the match progresses”
Win some, lose some. Onto the next one!
@monkeebooger
Yeah, Rybakina for sure. Those September odds at BJK were probably fair at that time but obviously the situation has changed now.
Ever since she qualified I've said I think she is the most likely champion and I still feel that way. As a fan I'd like to see AA win it though.
Possibly the two worst plays ever posted. And I've done pretty well at these tournaments, especially Tucuman and the clay circuit in general over the past few weeks. But the moment I post something it's already a loser so won't be doing that anymore.
But I can't stress enough the importance of keeping an eye out for fade opportunities against Parks, Dolehide and Avanesyan in the clay events over the next few weeks. I think each of the 3 events will feature 2 or 3 of these players.
Avanesyan might be the only one who is possibly capable of turning things around so keep an eye out for that. With her playing all these events it could mean her injury is better and maybe she just needs to find match rhythm. I had Gorgodze against her but I didn't get to watch the match to see how Avanesyan looked but Gorg would've been a tough opponent even if healthy.
As for Dolehide and Parks, I have a very tough time seeing them in their current form beating any of these girls that are regulars on the clay tour.
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