NBA V1 @ V2 Plays 2009-2010

Been following the past 2 years 07-08  1 loss

                                               08-09  1 loss

You have to realize there will always be some games where the lines will be contraversial.  JM will always get the favorable lines in his next day recap posts.  The listed plays will always be just the teams (pointspreads not included).

There are many gut wrenching games in these chases.  It isn't as easy to do as the record indicates. (C) wagers many times don't look like good plays which might scare you off.

The initial series of the season was Sac.  They lost games A and B big. The (C) wager at Phil (7:00pm start) was listed as a play.  At halftime the Kings were getting their clocks cleaned by over 20.  JM sent out an email that the Kings weren't a play because of one of the filters to the system. " Do not wager on the worst defensive team in the league".  Because the Kings had lost their 1st two games of the season by wide margins they were now the worst defensive team in the league.  When called out about the play being posted, JM claimed the play was just a "personal play". He had never sent any personal plays the season prior or for the remainder of the season. 

The link he used to send the play was capable of being changed when you log onto it.  The link then listed Sac as a no play. Of course this was after the game had reached half time. 

It was like the C game and A / B wagers never existed in his book.  To the system's credit, it did go undefeated the whole season after that.  There was a few contraversial posts again due to injuries.  Games listed as a play then changed in the next day write up because a "team's star" wasn't playing.  This is another filter.

Most of the time the injuries are only considered with JM if the team loses. If they win it doesn't matter, they win despite the injury.  In these examples, JM's rep takes a big hit and he seems deceitful.  In the end his record always remains unblemished according to his reasoning. 

Another ex of this was in MLB, when a team lost by the ML (Det) after the fact you were told you should use the alternate runline LOL.

Best of Luck

I don't have the exact figures now but I know buying the points came into play over 10 times each of the last 2 seasons. When this happens JM sends an email reminding the importance of "buying" the points.

There is no rule which states you are going to win XX number of A wagers.  The system is a team will not lose 3 consecutive games while buying the points.  By not playing the B and C you are losing out on many potential winners.  Of course there is nothing guaranteed and in a "chase" if you have to go to the B or C wagers your goal is to recoup losses from A or A+B plus to make whatever profit you want on that chase.

1 loss equals about 14 wins in the chase buying the points. (my book only allows buying 2 points).  Only buying the 2 points as opposed to 3 resulted in 1 push instead of a win last year.

People seem to try to vary the system in different ways.

Some want to just play A wagers and if it loses then they will try to make up for that loss in the next A wager.

Others just want to just play A and B wagers.

Still others want to play the games without buying the points.

Best of Luck whatever you decide.

So, if 1 loss = 14 wins, it would make sense to only bet A and B games.

Based on last year, you would miss 4 C wins, but the 1 C loss would cost you 14 wins. That is a net loss of 10 wins.

I think I will be doing the A and B only and using a Lab. line for MM. Just like NHL right now.

I will gladly miss out on some C wins to not have to go through the stress of a C wager.

nolemon....  this is how we are playing too...i think its going to work well...

good luck!!

any wagers tonight?  we are betting on UTEP tonight!

how does your nfl look for the weekend?? 

im not liking it yet, honestly!

Meeker, still have not done KM NFL if that's what you mean. I just dont like betting bad teams that often. that, and an A loss ties up your bankroll for a week while you wait for the next game to chase.

I have been doing SN's 4 team teaser as pretty much my only NFL bet. Up on the year from that.

Don't really think you can use that as a measuring stick.  You are using a 1 yr sample size.  Last season very few series went to the "C" wager. 

Best of Luck  

It is not that simple.

How many losses would be accounted for by losing the A and B wagers?

You are also going under the assunption, you are only going to have 4 "C" wagers.  The numbers could end up 50 A   20 B   10 C.

Nothing is guaranteed. On the other hand, the last 2 NBA seasons have "realistically" had 1 loss each year. This year there could be 3. ?

who knows?

I noticed in the NHL, people are already starting to panic because there has been 2 B losses and we are still only in October.  Also add in the fact that some NHL MLs and most NHL PLs contain far more juice than NBA wagers even with buying the points is resulting in. 

Also noticed you stated you are going to play Car "C" for partial recovery and no profit.  That is contradicting your argument.

I will gladly miss out on some C wins to not have to go through the stress of a C wager.

"I think I will be doing the A and B only and using a Lab. line for MM. Just like NHL right now."

If you are going to follow a system, stick with it and have faith in it.

Best of Luck

I dont understand your 1st point. You would have 5 series losses only doing A and B games. Because to have 4 C wins and 1 C loss would mean 5 Times the series went to the C level.

So, by skipping these you missed out on 4 C wins, but avoided the 1 C loss.

And yeah, who knows how many A B C's will come up. You could also have 5 C losses this year, and look back and wish you just did A and B. We don't know.

And as far as playing a C game in hockey, that is called my perogative. Who the hell cares if I dont follow a system to the T.

Besides, I said I would be doing the C at a modest recovery, not full JM style all in.

AND I never argued with anyone or said they were wrong over doing all 3 games or just 2. Just gave my 2 cents on what I planned on doing and why.

I can change my mind anytime, and can be persuaded to make adjustments by people like Hectar's posts (he does C's).

As far as following a system blindly F THAT. Unlike most, I am not married to the rules of a system. People are so damned weak kneed with straying from a system. F that. I strayed plenty last year and it worked out great. Pissed I did not do it more this year in hockey. Would have saved 3 losses already. But I let the sentiment here wear me down and stuck with the system. My bad.

People are always too afraid to miss out on wins to think outside the rules. Or they don't want to study or follow a sport, just a system. That is fine. I follow the sports I bet, and think it is perfectly fine to interject some of your own THINKING into the bets you make or don't make within a system. I would call that common sense.

I use the systems as a framework and make adjustments as I see fit. Sometimes I may CHOOSE to take on a C game for a little, or leave it alone. Sometimes I spread out losses, sometimes not.

Hope that clears up your concerns. Glad to know you are worried for me.

GL with the NBA. We can have our A/B vs. ABC pissing contest here this year in NBA. We'll see which route works out best at the end. Either way, we should still be making good money in the end.

Yes Sir,

Thank You for your response.

You are correct you can make any adjustments you wish and for arguments sake so can anyone else.  You bring up a point about losses and net wins when it comes to the "C" bet but you don't mention losses incurred by just playing A and B wagers.

I Tried to equate the 'C" loss to # of wins.(14).  Using last years ex as you stated 4 potential wins 4 - 14 equals -10 units lost by wagering "C"

79 wins - (14) losses equals  +65 net  using ABC.

My point although I didn't come across clearly is the (A and B) would also accumulate losses and a loss would equate to approx 6 units X 5 (AB losses) ( 4 +1) equals minus 30

Without adding on to the next series wager you are accumulating 30 units in losses (to be made up/ distributed/ however you want to label it). Using the same figures 75 (A+B) wins minus 30 equals +45 net

Just using ABC last year netted +65

Just using AB last year netted +45  (with no headaches of C wager).

Both ended up being profitable.

Now you can factor in making up for losses in AB but you can also do that for ABC.

You are incorrect in stating that I am worried about you. You are correct in that you can do / make whatever adjustments you wish.  I value your opinion as others while we are discussing this topic and trying to figure out the best possible method. 

I hope I expressed my point a little more clearly.  if not, it really is no big deal.

Thanks again and

Best of Luck

Puppet, thanks for the detailed response.

You're not worried about me? Damn, I was feeling loved for a little while there.

I get what you are saying. You are correct. As I said in a previous post, I am always learning.

However, my concern is still that a C loss takes away a lot more. But really, aren't we both assuming a martingale chase, which neither of us is doing? So in a sense were arguing something neither of us is doing. But the overall jist still applies I guess.

The system only had 1 C loss the last 2 years. That can not go on for ever. Even just 1 measly more C loss puts both methods about even. The % of A's to B's can flux like crazy compared to past years, and it won't matter. But I feel like that C is Russian Roulette.

Good points by you though on the math. Looking forward to this season, hopefully you'll be here throughout.

p.s. I still aint convinced on doing C's

Quote Originally Posted by sahlsa:

puppet

There is no rule which states you are going to win XX number of A wagers.  The system is a team will not lose 3 consecutive games while buying the points.  By not playing the B and C you are losing out on many potential winners.  Of course there is nothing guaranteed and in a "chase" if you have to go to the B or C wagers your goal is to recoup losses from A or A+B plus to make whatever profit you want on that chase.

I know that it is a 3 game chase and in theory all chases could end up with a C-bet, but if the earlier seasons have had the same majority of A-bets as last season had (56 vs 19+4) it could be an opportunity to raise the stakes and just go for A-bets and accept the "23" loses.

If anyone have the games for the other seasons like flash021 posted please let me hear

Just remember buying the 3 points your 23 losses are at -170 each which closes the gap quite a bit.

Still looks like it would be on the plus side.

Best of Luck