My Daily Best Bets with Matchup

Newcastle vs Benfica - 3 Goals @ 1.67 (Coolbet) and not 2.67

Torino & Napoli same team ?

@Seahawks14

 Yeah, sorry bro.

I use the same template and copy and paste from previous days and sometimes old team names remain, despite me double checking

Athletic Club vs. FK Qarabag

Athletic has only one win in its last nine matches and struggles to score goals, but the market still favours them heavily. Makes no sense to me.

If you look at Bilbao’s results in the Champions League, it’s even more depressing. Athletic Club has only managed to win three of their last 14 games in the UEFA Champions League, losing seven of them, including both so far this season. Qarabag have won six straight matches now and have been the surprise team of the Champions League this season so far, winning their opening two matches in the league phase against Benfica and Copenhagen.

Qarabag very rarely leave the field without scoring, and if that trend continues today, Athletic Club Bilbao will need to score 4 goals to lose this bet, which seems difficult in advance considering their recent form.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Qarabag +2 @ 1.55 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? BTTS Yes @ 2.08 (Coolbet)

Real Madrid vs. Juventus

Juventus is winless in its last six matches and is enduring a crisis of confidence and identity under manager Igor Tudor, whose position is reportedly under threat. Fans are blaming the management for a poor summer transfer window and lacking a clear direction of how Juventus should play and what their goals are for the season.

They failed to score a goal in 180 minutes despite having players like Yildiz and Jonathan David.
Even if their offence is acceptable, players like Mario, Kelly, and Kalulu in midfield or defence don’t directly concern any opponents.

Juventus has also failed to score a first-half goal in any of their last four contests, and I can see them holding up well against Real Madrid the first half before cracking the second. This was the case in Real Madrid’s last three matches, against Getafe, Villarreal, and Kairat.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Half with most goals – 2nd half @ 2.04 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Real Madrid to win to nil @ 2.90 (Betsson)
– Feeling YOLO? Mbappe to score first @ 3.60 (Most Bookies)

Galatasaray vs Bodo/Glimt

It’s always difficult to go down to Istanbul and play, as Liverpool experienced, but now I think Galatasaray are a bit overrated, and there’s no value in betting on them to win.
Bodø are still undefeated in the Champions League; furthermore, Galatasaray’s defence is not at the same level as their offence. They allowed 1.81 expected goals against Liverpool, and it was a miracle they managed to keep a clean sheet in that match. They can’t have that kind of luck every game, so if we add both teams to score to the Galatasaray win, we get much better value.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Galatasaray to win & BTTS Yes @ 2.49 (Coolbet)

Atalanta vs SK Slavia Praha

I had Atalanta as the Play of the Day recently against Lazio; they attacked in waves but surprisingly struggled to score, even though Lookman is back. They have now scored one goal or fewer in three of their five matches at home.

Slavia has also been involved in numerous close matches, scoring fewer than three goals in five of their six previous games across all competitions. Slavia hasn’t won a game in the Champions League since 2007; they usually struggle against teams from Serie A and have lost nine out of the last ten away matches against Serie A opposition in all Uefa competitions.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Atalanta to win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.75 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Atalanta to win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.29 (Coolbet)

E. Frankfurt vs. Liverpool

Slot looks totally clueless, and he points more fingers than kids getting caught making Çorba in kindergarten, while Alexander Isak looks like a freaking Temu copy of a forward.

Bets I like:
– Feeling YOLO? BTTS Yes & Draw & J. Burkardt ATGS @ 11.23 (Betsson)

Chelsea vs. Ajax

Ajax are struggling with their form in all competitions and were outplayed in the previous round against Marseille, and they still haven’t scored a goal in the Champions League. Getting odds of 2.24 on Ajax, with the old and slow Weghorst up front, to once again leave the field without scoring feels generous.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Ajax Under 0.5 Goals @ 2.24 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Chelsea Over 1.5 Goals & Ajax Under 0.5 Goals @ 2.94 (Betsson)

Play of the day

Bayern ML & BTTS Yes @ 2.11 with Betsson | 1 unit

Here is why I like this bet:

There is no point in discussing why Bayern Munich will win this match at home. There is an extreme gap in class between them and Club Brugge, and there is about a 750 million euro difference in squad values. Bayern Munich is likely to score a few goals, but since Kompany took over as a coach, they have only managed to maintain four clean sheets across 16 fixtures, even conceding against teams such as Pafos. Club Brugge has a strong away scoring record, having found the net in all but one of their last 13 matches on the road. Bayern Munich tends to slow down and concede a goal after scoring a few goals first. That’s precisely what I’m looking forward to today.

Heads-Up:

Brugge faces a risk of complete collapse and the inability to score a consolation goal.

My Play of the Day: Midtjylland ML @ 2.26 with Coolbet | 1 unit

Here is why I like this bet:

• Tel Aviv are playing on neutral ground, so they have no home advantage.
• They are winless in four straight matches in all tournaments.
• Maccabi Tel Aviv is in a turbulent period, both on and off the pitch. Their recent domestic derby was abandoned due to crowd trouble, and the club is dealing with off-field headlines.
• They have lost nine of their last 12 Europa League games
• FC Midtjylland is currently in 2nd place with a perfect 6 points; particularly impressive was their away win against Forest.
• They are unbeaten in their last seven competitive games (W6, D1), meaning they have lost only one game so far this season.
• The two sides met in last season’s Europa League group stage, with Midtjylland winning 2-0 in Denmark.
• In comparison to Tel Aviv, Midtjylland has a more diverse squad and a higher class.

Heads-Up:

Motivation? Midtjylland can afford to drop points and still advance to the playoffs.

Malmö FF vs. Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb are known for being a home-leaning team — they perform better in Zagreb and worse away from home. But does that mean Malmö should automatically be a favourite here? Absolutely not, especially considering Malmö FF haven’t won a match when playing at home in European competition in the last six years (not counting qualifiers). Malmö FF are coming off a poor season with a sacked coach and disillusioned supporters who no longer turn up to fill the stadium because they’ve essentially given up on the season.
Considering the forecast of heavy rain in Malmö today and even fewer supporters than usual, the game is likely to be more competitive than the odds indicate.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Dinamo Zagreb DNB @ 1.68 (Betsson)
– Feeling Brave? Dinamo Zagreb ML @ 2.38 (Coolbet)

Racing Genk vs. Real Betis

The edge is with Betis. They’re in excellent shape right now, unbeaten in five, and they’ve been flawless on the road in Europe this season. Genk, on the other hand, have been shaky at home, dropping six of their last ten. Considering these trends, it appears that Betis has small value here.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Betis DNB @ 1.66 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Real Betis ML @ 2.23 (Coolbet)

SC Braga vs FK Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade)

Braga have made a perfect Europa League start with two wins and two clean sheets (1-0 vs Feyenoord, 2-0 vs Celtic). They’re unbeaten in 26 of their last 30 matches with exceptional defensive organisation, conceding under 1.5 goals in 26 of those 30 games. At home, their defensive record is formidable with numerous clean sheets.

Crvena Zvezda’s away form in Europe is less convincing than domestic performances, especially when it comes to attacking abilities, so there is value in the goals market.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! BTTS No @ 2.15 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Crvena Zvezda Under 0.5 Goals @ 2.95 (Betsson)
– Feeling YOLO? SC Braga to win to nil @ 3.60 (Coolbet)

RB Salzburg vs. Ferencváros

Salzburg is in a complete crisis with zero points, zero goals scored in the Europa League, and multiple key injuries. Ferencváros is unbeaten in nine games, with 14 wins from their last 18 away matches. The only reason Salzburg is a favourite here is because more people recognise their name compared to a Hungarian team.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Ferencváros DC @ 1.73 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Ferencváros DNB @ 2.35 (Coolbet)
– Feeling YOLO? Ferencváros ML @ 3.26 (Coolbet)

AEK Athens vs. Aberdeen

AEK Athens have won 10 of their last 11 home games in all competitions and are expected to win today as well, but playing on AEK at these odds is suicidal, but if we check the trends, we see that a lack of goals on the road has been the main issue for Aberdeen, with them failing to score in six of their last nine away matches.

If we add Athens to win and keep a clean sheet, the odds suddenly look interesting.

Bets I like:
– Feeling Brave? AEK Athens to win to nil @ 2.10 (Betsson)

Häcken vs. Rayo Vallecano

Häcken are crippled with injuries, and they have serious issues keeping clean sheets.
Rayo Vallecano is in excellent form, riding a three-game winning streak and let’s be honest, there is a significant quality gap between Spain’s La Liga and Sweden’s Allsvenskan, even if Rayo chose to rotate heavily.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Rayo Vallecano ML @ 1.85 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Rayo Vallecano -1 AH @ 2.45 (Betsson)

Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Legia Warsaw

Ukrainian champions Shakhtar Donetsk are in excellent form, having lost only one of their last 17 matches across all competitions. Their opponents, Legia Warsaw of Poland, are described as being in a state of ”chaos” in Polish news. The club is navigating significant internal turmoil, including reports of a manager’s resignation being rejected, and is currently enjoying in a three-game losing streak and has lost four of their last five away matches

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Shakhtar Donetsk ML @ 1.85 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? Shakhtar Donetsk -1 AH @ 2.61 (Coolbet)

Shamrock Rovers vs. NK Celje

Shamrock Rovers have lost three of their last five matches across all competitions without scoring, while NK Celje is in exceptional form, riding a five-game winning streak into this fixture and being unbeaten in eleven. This run includes an impressive 3-1 victory over Greek side AEK Athens in their opening Conference League match

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! NK Celje DNB @ 1.56 (Coolbet)
– Feeling Brave? NK Celje ML @ 2.15 (Coolbet)

Great work spot on. keep it up Thx

My Play of the Day: Modena -1 AH @ 2.63 with Coolbet | 1 unit

• This is a high-reward value play.
• Modena lead Serie B with 17 points and are unbeaten in the last 5 (3 wins, 2 draws).
• They have the league’s best defence with four clean sheets and 0.5 goals conceded per game.
• They have won four of the last five at home and three in a row.
• Empoli, currently ranked 13th, has a leaky defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 games.
• Empoli lost heavily in their last three out of four away games.
• They have conceded an average of 2.67 goals per match on the road so far this season

Heads-Up:

Tricky lower divisions, and Empoli leads the H2H.

Milan vs. Pisa

The 1X2 market offers no value. The value proposition is not whether Milan will win, but how.

The value in this match is unlocked by quantifying just how poor Pisa’s offence is.

– Stat 1 (Recent Form): Pisa have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 Serie A matches. 
– Stat 2 (Season Total): They have scored just 3 goals in 7 matches.
– Stat 3 (Underlying Metric): Their “Goals Per 90” is a microscopic 0.43. 
– Stat 4 (Predictive Metric): Their seasonal Expected Goals (xG) is a paltry 6.95. 

This is not just bad luck; their attack is, according to the data, the worst in the “Big Five” leagues, and they now face one of the league’s best defences. Milan has conceded only 4 goals in 7 matches and boasts a “Goals Conceded Per 90” of just 0.57.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! AC Milan to win to nil @ 2.00 (Betsson)

Leeds vs. West Ham

Call me crazy—there’s barely a positive thing to say about West Ham and they’re in free fall—but believe me, today is when it will be decided whether they’ll be playing in the Championship next year or not. If they win, there’s hope; if they lose, it’s already over, because recovering from that, morale-wise, would be next to impossible.

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! West Ham DNB @ 3.15 (Coolbet)

Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin

Both teams are missing their first, second, and, in Bremen’s case, third-choice players at the wingback/fullback positions. With both teams fielding third-string or out-of-position players in these critical roles, can we get a better scenario for a “Goal Fest”?

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! BTTS Yes & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.98 (Coolbet)

SD Huesca vs Las Palmas

Las Palmas is second in La Liga 2 due to having the league’s best defence, which has conceded only 6 goals in 10 games. They face a 14th-place Huesca side that recently lost 4-0

Bets I like:
– My Best Bet! Las Palmas DNB @ 1.87 (Coolbet)

Sporting Charleroi vs Anderlecht

Anderlecht is second in the league and unbeaten by five. Sporting Charleroi is in a state of collapse, having lost four of their last five. Anderlecht also dominates the H2H (4 of 6).

Bets I like:
– Feeling Brave? Anderlecht DNB @ 1.85 (Betsson)

Supposed to be:

- My Best Bet! Anderlecht DNB @ 1.85 (Betsson) and nothing else :)

Thanks for the post  

Milan shit the bed today.  

Let's bounce back today!

My Play of the Day Liverpool to win & BTTS Yes @ 3.33 with Betsson | 2 units

Here is why I like this bet:

• Liverpool finally ended their four-match-long losing streak; that should restore some confidence.

• Temu Isak is doubtful, and Salah may be benched, which is great.

• Liverpool has been playing better than their results show.

• They have beaten Brentford five times in a row.

• Liverpool have scored at least once in all eight of their Premier League matches against Brentford and at least two in their last three matches.

• Brentford lost each of their last five meetings with Liverpool by an aggregate 12-1

• Both teams have scored in seven of the Reds’ last eight matches in all competitions

• Both teams have scored in five of the Bees’ last seven matches.

• Liverpool kept only one clean sheet in seven matches away from Anfield this season.

Heads-Up:

If Slot starts with Temu Isak and Salah this bet is ruined

 more plays to follow !

Chelsea vs. Sunderland

England: Premier League – 16:00 CEST/15:00 BST

Chelsea are in strong form, having won three consecutive matches, including a 5-1 midweek Champions League victory over Ajax. The statistical case against Sunderland is overwhelming, particularly on the road. Away from home, Sunderland averages just 0.25 goals per 90 minutes and has failed to score in three of their four away matches. Their underlying metrics rank them at the bottom for shots on target, big chances, and xG. Predictive models forecast Sunderland for only 0.74 xG in this match, while projecting Chelsea for 1.98 xG. Chelsea’s defense has been stable at home, conceding just 0.79 goals per game.

Bets I like:

• Chelsea -1 AH @ 1.68 (2 units with Coolbet)

• Chelsea -1.25 AH @ 1.90 (1 unit with Betsson)

Manchester United vs. Brighton

England: Premier League – 18:30 CEST/17:30 BST

This match features two of the league's biggest offensive underperformers. Manchester United (9th) ranks 3rd for xG (14.9), while FotMob data places them 2nd (15.4). Brighton (10th) ranks 7th for xG (12.3).

Both teams have a positive xGD (United +2.4, Brighton +1.0). This is a match between two attacks that consistently create high-quality chances according to the metrics. Add that Brighton is a bogey team for Manchester United, winning the last three visits to Old Trafford and it feels like they will at least score once.

Bets I like:

• BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.79 (1 unit with Coolbet)

Blackburn vs. Southampton

England: Championship – 16:00 CEST/15:00 BST

Blackburn is in catastrophic form, with four losses and one draw in their last five. Southampton are also struggling, and their manager is under fire after only two wins this season.

But Southampton has a stellar squad and the metrics on their side: Southampton (18th) are a statistical juggernaut, ranking 2nd in xG (20.8), 2nd in shots on target, 3rd in touches in the opposition box, and 1st in possession (60.0%). They've missed 19 "big chances" so far. They have to start progressing eventually.

Bets I like:

• Southampton DNB @ 1.70 (1 unit with Coolbet)

• Southampton ML @ 2.40 (1 unit with Coolbet)

Hull City vs. Charlton

England: Championship – 16:00 CEST/15:00 BST

If you look at the metrics, Hull should be a team fighting to avoid relegation. They rank 22nd in xGD (-6.5) and have the 2nd-worst xGA (21.4) in the league. The Tigers are far too reliant on individual players, like Oliver McBurnie (six goals, three assists in ten league matches) having a good day. Now the striker is highly doubtful to play due to a knee injury. This is a significant setback.

Charlton beat Ipswich on the road last match with an impressive 3-0, and the previous meeting between these teams saw Charlton win 1-0 away.

Bets I like:

• Charlton +0.25 @ 1.75 (1 unit with Betsson)

• Charlton DNB @ 2.10 (1 unit with Betsson)

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Djurgården vs Värnamo

Värnamo is already relegated and motivation is lacking. Djurgården are pushing for third place and will go full attack.

Bets I like:

• My Best Bet: Djurgårdens IF -1.5 AH @ 1.75 (1u, Betsson)

Parma vs Como

Como has lost only once in seven, but too many draws. They've just comfortably beaten Juventus 2-0. Nico Paz was the star. Como should be favoured despite playing away.

Bets I like:

• My Best Bet: Como ML @ 1.97 (1u, Coolbet)

Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln

Köln Over 3.5 Corners is supported by recent trends. Dortmund’s matches haven't been goal fests lately—under 3.5 goals has landed often.

Bets I like:

• My Best Bet: FC Köln Over 3.5 Corners @ 2.03 (1u, Coolbet)

• My Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.68 (1u, Coolbet)

• Feeling Brave? Under 3 Goals @ 2.15 (1u, Coolbet)

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC St. Pauli

Frankfurt will look to bounce back from a tough loss. St Pauli is on a 4-game losing streak and struggling away.

Bets I like:

• My Best Bet: E. Frankfurt ML @ 1.73 (2u, Coolbet)

• Feeling YOLO? E. Frankfurt to win to nil @ 3.65 (1u, Coolbet)

FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig

Leipzig are undefeated as favourites and have solid H2H numbers vs Augsburg, who have a poor home record.

Bets I like:

• My Best Bet: Leipzig -0.25 AH @ 1.78 (2u, Betsson)

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