Amazonas host Cuiabá in a Serie B matchup that looks likely to produce over 2.5 goals. The home side’s defence has been fragile lately, conceding 9 goals in their last 6 games and rarely keeping a clean sheet. Cuiabá face similar issues at the back, having allowed goals in 5 of their last 6 matches. Notably, all of Cuiabá’s last six away fixtures have seen both teams score, highlighting their attacking intent but also defensive vulnerability. Although Amazonas have failed to find the net in their previous three Serie B games, their home form has been steadier, remaining unbeaten in their last two home outings. The previous meeting between these sides ended in a 3–1 victory for Cuiabá, which further supports the potential for goals in this fixture. Cuiabá enter the game with a fully fit squad, while Amazonas miss only midfielder F. da Cunha Neto, so both sides are expected to line up strong offensively. Given the stats, form trends, and history between these teams, a high-scoring encounter with over 2.5 goals seems very plausible.
America Mineiro – Novorizontino
03.11.2025 23:00
Brazil Seria B
Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,50
The clash between América Mineiro and Grêmio Novorizontino looks set to be an open encounter, with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. América Mineiro have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in each of their last six matches while conceding in five of them, reflecting an attacking but defensively fragile style. They are unbeaten in their last six home games but haven’t managed a win in their previous two at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, suggesting they’ll push harder offensively this time. Grêmio Novorizontino, meanwhile, have avoided defeat in nine of their last ten Serie B matches and remain unbeaten in their last two away fixtures. Despite a recent trend of low-scoring games, their last head-to-head meeting ended 3–1 in favor of Novorizontino, showing that this matchup can produce goals. América Mineiro are only missing midfielder A. Egea, while the visitors will be without three defenders, including suspended J. Silva Dantas, which could expose their backline. Considering both sides’ form, attacking tendencies, and defensive absences, this fixture strongly points toward over 2.5 goals being scored.
Amazonas host Cuiabá in a Serie B matchup that looks likely to produce over 2.5 goals. The home side’s defence has been fragile lately, conceding 9 goals in their last 6 games and rarely keeping a clean sheet. Cuiabá face similar issues at the back, having allowed goals in 5 of their last 6 matches. Notably, all of Cuiabá’s last six away fixtures have seen both teams score, highlighting their attacking intent but also defensive vulnerability. Although Amazonas have failed to find the net in their previous three Serie B games, their home form has been steadier, remaining unbeaten in their last two home outings. The previous meeting between these sides ended in a 3–1 victory for Cuiabá, which further supports the potential for goals in this fixture. Cuiabá enter the game with a fully fit squad, while Amazonas miss only midfielder F. da Cunha Neto, so both sides are expected to line up strong offensively. Given the stats, form trends, and history between these teams, a high-scoring encounter with over 2.5 goals seems very plausible.
America Mineiro – Novorizontino
03.11.2025 23:00
Brazil Seria B
Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,50
The clash between América Mineiro and Grêmio Novorizontino looks set to be an open encounter, with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. América Mineiro have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in each of their last six matches while conceding in five of them, reflecting an attacking but defensively fragile style. They are unbeaten in their last six home games but haven’t managed a win in their previous two at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, suggesting they’ll push harder offensively this time. Grêmio Novorizontino, meanwhile, have avoided defeat in nine of their last ten Serie B matches and remain unbeaten in their last two away fixtures. Despite a recent trend of low-scoring games, their last head-to-head meeting ended 3–1 in favor of Novorizontino, showing that this matchup can produce goals. América Mineiro are only missing midfielder A. Egea, while the visitors will be without three defenders, including suspended J. Silva Dantas, which could expose their backline. Considering both sides’ form, attacking tendencies, and defensive absences, this fixture strongly points toward over 2.5 goals being scored.
Yesterday the summer tips period ended and today it's time to do a short recap. In the spring I decided to apply my tips selection strategy to a fairly wide set of leagues that are played at a time when the European leagues are on break. I didn't have any special ambitions, after all, two South American, two Asian, one Scandinavian league and two Irish leagues mean a wide range of playing styles and other specifics. So I went into it with the idea that this set would thoroughly test the robustness of my strategy. The result was quite surprising - the net profit after 187 matches played is 184.64 units and the Yield is 9.87%. Good for a start, you can build on that.
The general summary of the strategy is clear, there is nothing to add to this. I will only specify that I use flat stakes - i.e. equal stakes, i.e. 10 points per tip. My Closing Line Value (CLV) is negative for one (important to me) reason. I give tips well in advance, a day or two before the weekend. The odds of my matches usually do not drop – on the contrary – they are highest just before the start of the match. And since I do not want to spend weekend nights or mornings giving closing odds, I am resigned to a negative 2-3 percent CLV. It is the price for a quiet, undisturbed weekend.
The graph illustrates the growth of the bankroll, which is continuous until September. You can see a series of six won matches in a row, which we managed to do twice in August. In mid-September, it broke and a series of seven lost matches came, we lost about 30 percent of the profit and the worst drawdown was during this short period – up to 131.5 points.
The following is a table of monthly profits – we closed more than half of the seven-month period in profit. August 2025 stood out with a profit of 138.7 points. The worst month was October 2025, which ended in minus 24.6 points.
The last table illustrates the profits by league. Five out of seven leagues showed a profit. The Brazilian Seria A brought relatively high losses. The Japanese J1 League excelled – not only did it bring the highest profits, but it also amazed with its numbers. Win rate 57.14% at an average odds of 2.42!!!
Okay, let's outline the facts that will determine how we start the summer leagues in a year - that is, in May 2026. We will definitely eliminate the Brazilian Seria A. We will be left with the two Japanese leagues and the Brazilian Seria B. For now, I am undecided what to do with the two Irish leagues and the Swedish Superettan. It's not that they are critically unprofitable, it's more that they produce few signals - three leagues only delivered fourteen tips, which is not enough. We'll see - so for now we say goodbye to the summer leagues and the classic, European leagues await us. GL!
Yesterday the summer tips period ended and today it's time to do a short recap. In the spring I decided to apply my tips selection strategy to a fairly wide set of leagues that are played at a time when the European leagues are on break. I didn't have any special ambitions, after all, two South American, two Asian, one Scandinavian league and two Irish leagues mean a wide range of playing styles and other specifics. So I went into it with the idea that this set would thoroughly test the robustness of my strategy. The result was quite surprising - the net profit after 187 matches played is 184.64 units and the Yield is 9.87%. Good for a start, you can build on that.
The general summary of the strategy is clear, there is nothing to add to this. I will only specify that I use flat stakes - i.e. equal stakes, i.e. 10 points per tip. My Closing Line Value (CLV) is negative for one (important to me) reason. I give tips well in advance, a day or two before the weekend. The odds of my matches usually do not drop – on the contrary – they are highest just before the start of the match. And since I do not want to spend weekend nights or mornings giving closing odds, I am resigned to a negative 2-3 percent CLV. It is the price for a quiet, undisturbed weekend.
The graph illustrates the growth of the bankroll, which is continuous until September. You can see a series of six won matches in a row, which we managed to do twice in August. In mid-September, it broke and a series of seven lost matches came, we lost about 30 percent of the profit and the worst drawdown was during this short period – up to 131.5 points.
The following is a table of monthly profits – we closed more than half of the seven-month period in profit. August 2025 stood out with a profit of 138.7 points. The worst month was October 2025, which ended in minus 24.6 points.
The last table illustrates the profits by league. Five out of seven leagues showed a profit. The Brazilian Seria A brought relatively high losses. The Japanese J1 League excelled – not only did it bring the highest profits, but it also amazed with its numbers. Win rate 57.14% at an average odds of 2.42!!!
Okay, let's outline the facts that will determine how we start the summer leagues in a year - that is, in May 2026. We will definitely eliminate the Brazilian Seria A. We will be left with the two Japanese leagues and the Brazilian Seria B. For now, I am undecided what to do with the two Irish leagues and the Swedish Superettan. It's not that they are critically unprofitable, it's more that they produce few signals - three leagues only delivered fourteen tips, which is not enough. We'll see - so for now we say goodbye to the summer leagues and the classic, European leagues await us. GL!
The upcoming match between Preston North End and Swansea City promises to be an open contest with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. Preston enter this fixture in good form after a 2–0 victory over Southampton, having scored eight goals in their last six games at an average of 1.33 per match. They have also been highly consistent at Deepdale, remaining unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home Championship fixtures, which often encourages an attacking approach. Swansea, meanwhile, continue to struggle defensively, conceding in five of their last six matches and allowing a total of nine goals. Their recent fixtures tend to be open, with both teams finding scoring opportunities. Historically, matches between these two sides also produce goals – 16 in their last six meetings, averaging 2.67 per game. Preston will miss forward Will Keane and midfielder Josh Thompson, while Swansea’s backline is weakened by the absence of defender Almeida Santos and forward Benson Hedilazio. With both sides capable of scoring but vulnerable at the back, all indicators suggest this clash could see over 2.5 goals.
The upcoming match between Preston North End and Swansea City promises to be an open contest with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. Preston enter this fixture in good form after a 2–0 victory over Southampton, having scored eight goals in their last six games at an average of 1.33 per match. They have also been highly consistent at Deepdale, remaining unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home Championship fixtures, which often encourages an attacking approach. Swansea, meanwhile, continue to struggle defensively, conceding in five of their last six matches and allowing a total of nine goals. Their recent fixtures tend to be open, with both teams finding scoring opportunities. Historically, matches between these two sides also produce goals – 16 in their last six meetings, averaging 2.67 per game. Preston will miss forward Will Keane and midfielder Josh Thompson, while Swansea’s backline is weakened by the absence of defender Almeida Santos and forward Benson Hedilazio. With both sides capable of scoring but vulnerable at the back, all indicators suggest this clash could see over 2.5 goals.
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