AC_28 Overs in Soccer

Midtjylland - Vejle OVER 2,5 Goals @1,59. GL!

Midtjylland - Vejle 2:0 FT. Tip KO

LASK - RB Salzburg OVER 2,5 Goals @1,61

GL!

Sarpsborg - FK Haugesund OVER 2,5 Goals @1,62. GL!

Saturday, early:

Degerfors - Ostersunds FK
OVER 2,5 Goals @1,74

GL!

Shimizu - V-Varen OVER 2,5 Goals @1.63

GL!

My complete selection for the weekend, with short analyses:

Gremio – Mirassol

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,20

Grêmio enters its home match against Mirassol after a 1-1 draw with Flamengo, having conceded five goals in its last six games. The defense is also weakened by numerous injuries – they are missing up to eight players, including Balbuena, Ely, and Villasanti, which could significantly disrupt their stability at the back. Mirassol goes into the match with high confidence after a 5-1 win over Bahia and has scored 12 goals in its last six matches, scoring in each of them. At the same time, however, they have conceded seven goals in the same period, which suggests open games with plenty of room for goals. The match between the two sides in April 2025 ended in a clear 4-1 win for Mirassol, which supports the hypothesis that there could be more goals this time around. The average number of goals scored in both teams' matches in recent weeks is well above 2.5, and the combination of Grêmio's defensive weaknesses and Mirassol's offensive form significantly increases the likelihood that this match will be high-scoring.

Vasco Da Gama – Ceara

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,40

Vasco da Gama goes into this match buoyed by a 3-2 win over Sport Recife, with their games recently producing a high goal average – 22 goals in the last 6 matches, an average of 3.67 goals per game. Their offense is productive, having scored 13 goals during this period, but their defense often fails, creating opportunities for further goals. Another problem is the number of injuries to key players, especially in midfield and defense, which could further weaken their defensive stability. Ceará has scored only 5 goals in their last 6 games, but they also face problems in defense, as they have a long list of injured players, including goalkeeper Fernando Miguel and defender Luiz Otávio. Head-to-head matches between these teams have yielded an average of 2.33 goals, but Vasco da Gama's current form and their high-scoring games suggest that the 2.5-goal mark could be exceeded this time around. The combination of the home team's strong attack, injuries on both sides, and poor defense creates the conditions for an offensive game. I expect more than 2.5 goals here.

Volta Redonda – Criciuma

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,58

Volta Redonda goes into the match buoyed by a 2-1 win over Paysandu, which suggests that they can also impose themselves offensively on their opponents' pitches. Although their recent matches have often ended in goalless draws, they have failed to win at home in their last three games, which points to defensive weaknesses that their opponents could exploit. Criciúma is in stable form, having recently defeated Chapecoense 2-0 and averaging 1.67 goals per game. In addition, they are undefeated in their last two league games away from home, confirming their ability to score points outside their home environment. However, several absences in defense and midfield are a problem, including injuries to players with serious knee problems and two suspended players. These weaknesses may mean that Criciúma will be more prone to conceding goals, but at the same time, they will create scoring opportunities. Given the productivity of both teams and the defensive lapses of the visitors, it is realistic to expect that this match could produce more than 2.5 goals.

Vegalta Sendai – Mito

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,22

Vegalta Sendai comes into the match after a 1-1 draw with Ehime, with their recent results marked by a low number of goals. Nevertheless, they have the ability to score, having found the net in 5 of their last 6 games. Mito Hollyhock, on the other hand, are showing a much more offensive form - they have scored 11 goals in their last 6 games, but have also conceded in 5 of them, which indicates an open style of play and more space for goals on both sides. Their last match ended 2-2, which supports the expectation of a higher number of goals this time as well. Mito Hollyhock is also encouraged by the fact that they have not lost in their last two away league matches, which gives them confidence going forward. Vegalta has a good record against them in their last three league matches, not losing, which may mean that they will focus on offense in front of their home crowd. Since both teams have quality in attack but weaknesses in defense, it is very likely that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals.

GIF Sundsvall – Varberg

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,03

GIF Sundsvall comes into the match after a 1-2 loss to Landskrona, but they tend to do well at home, having lost only once in their last six home games in Superettan. In their last six games, they have scored and conceded eight goals, which points to an open style of play and the potential for goals at both ends. Varbergs BoIS is coming off a wild duel with Falkenberg, which they won 3:2, confirming that their defense is unstable – they have conceded a total of 9 goals in each of their last 6 games. On the other hand, they can be dangerous in attack, as they regularly score goals. The head-to-head record clearly favors Varberg, which has won four of the last six meetings, with an average of three goals scored in those games. Home team Sundsvall will benefit from the fact that their opponent is missing goalkeeper F. Andersson, which may increase their chances of scoring. Both teams are expected to score, and given their statistics and head-to-head record, it is very likely that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals.

Yamaguchi – JEF Chiba

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,21

Renofa Yamaguchi enters this match after a 2-2 draw with Mito Hollyhock, which only confirms their frequent defensive problems – they have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches, a total of 8 goals. They are struggling at home, having failed to win in 6 consecutive league games, which may lead to a more open game with an emphasis on attack. In addition, they will be missing several players, including Ikegami, Kamekawa, and Firmino, which weakens their defensive options in particular. JEF United Chiba is in better form, having defeated Kofu 2-1 in their last match and conceding only 4 goals in their last 6 matches, while scoring 7. Historically, they have a clear advantage over Yamaguchi, having not lost any of their last 10 matches against them and scoring an average of 3 goals per game. They regularly excel in attack and could exploit the weaknesses of the home defense to score more goals. Tanaka's injury slightly weakens the visitors, but overall they are in better health than Renofa. Given the statistics, the tradition of mutual matches, and the defensive problems of the home team, it is highly likely that at least three goals will be scored.

Tokyo – Tokyo Verdy

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,52

FC Tokyo goes into the derby after a 1-1 draw with Nagoya Grampus, with their defense conceding 11 goals in the last 6 games, which indicates a high potential for goals in this match as well. In addition, they have not won two league games in a row at home and have only one win in their last six games, which may lead to a more offensive approach. Tokyo Verdy recently drew 0-0 with Yokohama FC, but they have a solid record against FC Tokyo - they have not lost in their last six league games, and the last time these teams met, they shared the points after a 2-2 draw. Derby matches between these two teams are often evenly matched, with 83% ending in a draw, but the average of 2.17 goals per game may increase this time around given the defensive weaknesses of both teams. FC Tokyo is also struggling with absences – Arai, Ogashiwa, and Shirai are out of action, which could weaken their defense and variability in attack. Verdy, on the other hand, will be without Yamada and Yamami, which will reduce their attacking power. Nevertheless, both teams are likely to score goals, as four were scored in their last match. Given FC Tokyo's conceded goals statistics and the historically more offensive nature of the derby, it is very likely that the match will produce more than 2.5 goals.

Kumamoto – Tokushima

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,45

Roasso Kumamoto can rely on a series of three home wins before this match, having defeated Toyama 1-0 in the last round. However, the home team's defense has been unstable for a long time, conceding in 5 of their last 6 games and conceding a total of 9 goals, which increases the chance of goals this time as well. Tokushima Vortis has better defensive statistics in their last six matches, conceding only twice, but they have only scored five times themselves, which suggests a balanced but high-scoring match. The matches between these two teams tend to be close. Tokushima has won only once in the last seven matches, but there have been three draws, which often resulted in goals on both sides. The home team's weakened lineup is also important – they are missing Jeong-min Bae and Rikuto Hashimoto, which could disrupt the stability of their defense. The visitors will be without Lucas Barcelos, but they are still capable of winning. Statistics show that Roasso regularly scores at home but has trouble keeping a clean sheet. Therefore, we can expect a more open game with goals on both sides and most likely more than 2.5 goals.

Ferroviaria – Novorizontino

OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,69

Ferroviária enters the match after a heavy 0:4 defeat to Coritiba, which highlights their defensive weaknesses, but at the same time, they have scored 9 goals in their last six games, an average of 1.5 goals per game. They have been successful at home for a long time, losing only twice in 12 Serie B matches, but they have not won twice in a row recently. Grêmio Novorizontino, on the other hand, has problems in offense, scoring only four goals in six games, but conceding eight, which creates room for a more open game. Head-to-head matches suggest higher goal productivity, with the last one ending 2-2, which directly supports the hypothesis of over 2.5 goals. The visitors will be without Renato Palm, which weakens their defensive stability. Ferroviária also scores regularly at home and will be motivated to show an offensive response after their defeat to Coritiba. The combination of the home team's offense and the visitors' weaker away form suggests that the match has the potential to produce more than 2.5 goals.

welcome back AC. It's been over a year 

So, here are the weekend statistics:

9 picks, 5 OK, 4 KO.

Stake 9 points, net profit 2.78 points.

Yield +30.8%.

Average winning odds: 2.36.

See you before the weekend!

@AC_28

Tokyo Verdy – Okayama
20.09.2025 11:00
Japan J1 League
OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,80

Tokyo Verdy have been struggling in attack, failing to score in their last four league matches and managing just one win in their previous seven games. Despite this, head-to-head encounters with Fagiano Okayama have been much livelier, averaging 2.83 goals per match, with 17 goals scored in their last six meetings. The home side will be without two forwards – Goki Yamada and Hiroto Yamami – which may reduce their attacking options but also highlights their defensive vulnerabilities. Fagiano Okayama, who lost to Nagoya in their last outing, have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last three away league matches. They have also scored seven goals in their last six games, showing they can create chances on the road. Considering Tokyo Verdy’s poor form, Okayama’s attacking efficiency away from home, and the history of high-scoring head-to-head games, this fixture has a strong potential to produce over 2.5 goals.


Iwaki - Mito
20.09.2025 11:00
Japan J2 League
OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,15

Iwaki enter this match in excellent form after a resounding 5-1 win over Consadole Sapporo, with their last six games producing a total of 21 goals, averaging 3.5 per match. At home they are strong, scoring in each of their last nine league games and winning the last three by at least a two-goal margin. Mito Hollyhock, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, conceding 11 goals in their last six matches, with both teams scoring in each of those games. Although Mito are unbeaten in their last three head-to-head matches against Iwaki, including a 4-1 victory earlier this season, they face significant attacking absences with Nemoto, Ando, and Umeda all sidelined. Iwaki also have defensive issues, missing Sakagishi and Endo, which could leave gaps at the back. Considering Iwaki’s high-scoring trend, Mito’s defensive frailties, and the goal-heavy history between these sides, this match has strong potential to deliver over 2.5 goals.

Ceara – Bahia
20.09.2025 23:30
Brazil Seria A
OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,51

Ceará come into this match following a 2-2 draw against Vasco da Gama, which shows that despite their low scoring average of only 5 goals in their last six games, their matches can still produce plenty of action. They haven’t beaten Bahia in their last three league meetings, which could push them to take more risks offensively. Bahia have conceded 8 goals while scoring 6 in their last six matches, indicating a balanced but open playing style. However, the visitors are heavily affected by injuries, with seven players sidelined, including key defensive and attacking options, which could weaken their back line. Ceará generally manage to score at home, while Bahia also tends to find the net on the road, suggesting chances on both sides. Although historical head-to-head clashes averaged 2.17 goals per game, current form and Bahia’s depleted squad strongly support the likelihood of this match seeing over 2.5 goals.


America MG - Coritiba
21.09.2025 21:00
Brazil Seria B
OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,60

América Mineiro are coming off a goalless draw against Paysandu, with five of their last six matches producing fewer than three goals. Their poor run of form, with only one win in their last twelve games, could push them to play more offensively in search of points. Coritiba, on the other hand, have been more solid, scoring 6 goals and conceding just 2 in their last six matches, while going unbeaten in 17 of their last 19 Serie B games. Head-to-head meetings between the sides have brought 14 goals across the last six clashes, averaging 2.33 per match. América usually manage to score at home, while Coritiba are among the more efficient attacking teams in the league. Despite their strong defensive record, the absence of Rodrigo Moledo could weaken their back line. Considering América’s struggles, Coritiba’s consistency, and the historical scoring trend between these teams, this game shows good potential to end with over 2.5 goals.

Sp. Recife - Corinthians
21.09.2025 22:30
Brazil Seria A
OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,56

Sport Recife come into this match after a 1-1 draw with Bragantino, averaging one goal per game across their last six fixtures. They are winless in their last five home league matches, which could push them to attack more aggressively. Corinthians, meanwhile, are in better scoring form with 9 goals in their last six outings, having found the net in every single match. Their defense, however, has been breached 5 times during that run. Head-to-head history shows 14 goals in the last six clashes between these teams, averaging 2.33 per game. Sport Recife face multiple absences in goal, midfield, and defense, which weakens their stability. Corinthians are also missing key players such as Depay and Carrillo, potentially making them play a more open game. With Corinthians’ consistent scoring, Sport Recife’s defensive gaps, and both sides dealing with injuries, this matchup has solid potential to end with over 2.5 goals.


Santos – Sao Paulo
22.09.2025 01:30
Brazil Seria A
OVER 2,5 Goals
Odds: 2,57

Santos come into this fixture after a 1-1 draw with Atlético Mineiro, having conceded in five of their last six games with a total of 11 goals against them. Their defensive weakness suggests the potential for an open game against a side like São Paulo. São Paulo, meanwhile, have been more solid at the back, conceding only 4 goals in their last six matches while scoring 6. Recent head-to-head history between the teams shows 14 goals across the last six encounters, averaging 2.33 per match. A key factor here is São Paulo’s injury list, with attacking players such as Calleri, Lucas Moura, Ferreirinha, and André Silva sidelined, reducing their depth in attack. Santos, despite not winning their last two home games, tend to score in front of their fans. Given Santos’ leaky defense, São Paulo’s injury-hit squad, and the goal averages in their past meetings, this match has good potential to produce over 2.5 goals.

After a strong Saturday, Brazilian disappointment. Weak week.

@AC_28

6 picks, 1 OK, 5 KO.
Stake 6 points, net profit -3,20 points.
Yield -53,3%.

See you before the weekend!

Paysandu – Novorizontino

24.09.2025 00:30

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,58

Paysandu come into this match after a 1-0 defeat to Goias, having conceded in five of their last six games and allowing 9 goals in that run. Their home form is poor, as they remain winless in their last six league matches and have only 4 wins from their last 27 Serie B fixtures. Grêmio Novorizontino also struggle defensively, conceding 8 goals across their last six outings. On the road, they have only managed 1 win from their last eight away matches. The last head-to-head meeting ended 3-1 in favor of Novorizontino, producing 4 goals. Paysandu will be without midfielder Matheus Vargas and defender Thalisson due to suspension, which further weakens their back line. Novorizontino are missing Renato Palm through injury but otherwise have a full squad. With both sides showing defensive weaknesses and a recent history of goals in this matchup, there is strong potential for over 2.5 goals in this game.

The Brazilian misery continues. So far I am successfully attacking the worst drawdown in the last two years, which is 7 unsuccessful matches in a row. It takes time, don't give up. Just stick to the 1 point stake from the 100-point pot. Don't place combo bets, don't place combined bets, don't add derivative bets (like BHS). If you lower the line to Over 1.5 goals, you can, it usually has value too.

Paysandu - Novorizontino 0:1 FT. Tip KO

@AC_28

 The Brazilian league is super hard! Super boring matches most of the time. Not as bad as Argentina, but very boring. Not that many overs. Lol. 

Gremio – Botafogo RJ

25.09.2025 00:30

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,36

Grêmio head into this clash boosted by their 3-2 win over Internacional, a result that showed they can still be involved in high-scoring games despite having scored just 4 goals in their last six matches. Their defense conceded 5 goals in the same period, and they remain winless against Botafogo in their last two league encounters. Botafogo, who recently defeated Atlético Mineiro 1-0, have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 7 goals across their last six games. Importantly, the head-to-head record between these two sides is highly goal-rich, with 23 goals scored in their last six meetings – an average of 3.83 per match. Both teams are affected by absences, with Grêmio missing key players such as Braithwaite, Villasanti, and Ely, while Botafogo are without Ramos and Rodríguez due to suspension. Botafogo are also unbeaten in their last four away league games, suggesting they can push forward offensively. Considering the historical goal output and current defensive weaknesses, this match has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals scored.

Vasco – Bahia

25.09.2025 00:30

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,18

Vasco da Gama come into this match after a 1-1 draw with Flamengo, and their recent games have been high-scoring, with 20 goals recorded across their last six matches – an average of 3.33 goals per game. Vasco themselves have scored 10 goals in that period, highlighting attacking potential but also defensive issues. At home, however, they are winless in their last three league fixtures. Bahia also drew 1-1 in their most recent match against Ceará and have scored 6 times in their last six games while conceding 10, underlining defensive vulnerabilities. The head-to-head record between these sides has seen 15 goals in their last five meetings, averaging 2.5 per game. Both squads are heavily affected by injuries – Vasco miss key players such as Piton, Tchê Tchê and Jair, while Bahia are without Caio Alexandre, Pulga and Kanu among others. Considering the scoring trends and defensive gaps on both sides, this match has strong potential to go over 2.5 goals.

Drogheda – Derry

26.09.2025 20:45

Ireland, Premier League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,38

Drogheda United come into this match after a 2-1 win over Shelbourne, but their defensive record remains concerning, having conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. They have also failed to beat Derry City in their last two league encounters. Derry City, on the other hand, have been productive in attack, scoring 10 goals in their previous six fixtures – an average of nearly 1.7 goals per game. Their defensive frailties are evident as well, with goals conceded in 5 of their last 6 games. The head-to-head record suggests goals, too, with 16 scored in their last six meetings, averaging 2.67 per match. Drogheda are almost at full strength, missing only Ahui, while Derry will be without Boyce and Dummigan, absences that may affect their balance. With Derry unbeaten in their last two away league games, they are expected to push forward. Considering Derry’s attacking form, defensive weaknesses on both sides, and the goal-rich head-to-head history, this fixture has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals.

I'll add the weekend tips tomorrow, which is Friday. GL!

Juventude – Internacional

Brazil, Seria A

27.09.2025 23:30

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,25

Juventude suffered a 2-0 defeat to Mirassol in their last outing, showing inconsistency with only 6 goals scored but 9 conceded across their previous six matches. They also struggle against Internacional, having failed to win any of their last five league meetings. Internacional lost to Grêmio in their previous game but have scored 7 goals in their last six fixtures while conceding in each one, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Head-to-head encounters between these sides are typically high-scoring, producing 20 goals across their last six clashes, an average of 3.33 per game. Their most recent meeting ended 3-1 to Internacional, reinforcing this trend. Juventude are heavily weakened by injuries, with key absences such as Wilker Ángel and Ewerthon affecting their defense. Internacional also miss several players including Bruno Gomes, Ronaldo, and Ivan, yet remain strong in attack. Considering the goal-rich history, defensive issues on both sides, and attacking output, this match has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals.

Vasco Da Gama – Cruzeiro

Brazil, Seria A

27.09.2025 23:30

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,25

Vasco da Gama approach this match boosted by a 3-1 victory over Bahia, and notably, they have both scored and conceded in each of their last six games. This trend points to an open playing style and higher goal potential. Historically, Vasco have struggled against Cruzeiro, failing to win any of their last six league meetings. Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have been solid defensively with only 3 goals conceded in their last six games, but their attack has been sharp, netting 11 goals in the same period, averaging nearly 2 per match. Although past head-to-head encounters have been lower scoring (1.83 goals per game), the current form of both sides suggests a higher-scoring affair this time. Vasco will be weakened by numerous injuries, including Adson, Jair, and Thiago Mendes, which could compromise their defensive stability. Cruzeiro miss only Fagner, meaning they will be close to full strength. Considering Cruzeiro’s attacking form, Vasco’s defensive frailties, and the injury situation, this match has strong potential to produce over 2.5 goals.