TheKingfish

An 8-8 (.500) outcome here last week. Over fourteen weeks; just four were losers. However, the overall record was less impressive (97-86-1, .530). The historical database does not allow the box to do neutral site games so, relegated to the four conference games on home turf, it likes none this week. It liked KennesawSt earlier in the week when it was a small dog, but not now at -2.5. So it goes -- the Human Administrator forever a slave to that rote output.

The algorithm’s top pick did bring-value in 2025 (9-5, .643) but, said prior, the lack of intrinsic system rank-value this year was disappointing. It has been present in all recent years. Anyway, some (boring) final tech thoughts in departing:

2025 CATEGORIES
Over 745 FBS non-neutral site games, Home Favs went 231-217-12 (.516), and Home Dogs went 137-139-9 (.496). So, we’d be challenged to find any strategic direction in those numbers. As we know, such percentages all go to .500 over time. Making it a tough game to play.....

ARTIFICIAL INTEL
SpreadMargin (SM) is the amount a team covers by -- or fails to cover. Over the last eleven seasons (7583 games), the average SM was 12.23 points. Over this season thus far, the average SM is 12.08; a comparative reduction of one percent. When I did that analysis following week 10/4, the SM was 11.51 (six percent). That suggests The Man was considerably less-proficient setting his line during the latter-part of the season. I did not expect that to happen. Nonetheless, if we’re all betting into a line that improves by one-percent annually – we’re riding a horse that eventually won’t be worth hefting a saddle for.

LARGE JUICE
Consider standard juice (-110) as an additive absolute value. In such a case, -110 equals 220 for talking purposes. I currently utilize four outlets; one good (216), and two standard (220 & 221). While a fourth outlet went super-greedy on me this year (228), which is NG and largely unsustainable in terms of any profit-making. I know folks are reluctant to reply here, but I would like to know other experiences & opinion on such drift. Like the casino floor replacing tables with higher-margin slot machines, I’m not liking the new look.

NIL & PORTAL IMPACT
I have friends who kindly assuage my non-stellar 2025 performance onto one or both of these elements. In short though; I’m not a believer. Rather, I believe the NIL and the Portal are micros that feed the macro. And that towering macro remains the line (see AI above). So, in the end, that challenging line is what has to be overcome; large and imposing in every game.

As I take my leave, I hope you found this corner of the forum mildly entertaining; and occasionally insightful/helpful. I will now slide back into the dungeon for my off-season research, bringing a new RoboCap version to the fore in 2026.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

As often happens, the algorithm has added one more:
12.5) Marshall(-10)/GeorgiaSouthern

Good luck,
TheKingfish

A profitable bunch was posted here last week (10-5, .667). Over thirteen; just four losing weeks. Albeit, the overall season-record is less impressive (89-78-1, .533). Examining every game, the box likes these:
1) Tennessee(-2)/Vanderbilt
2) ArizonaSt (+2.5)/Arizona
3) SouthCarolina(-1.5)/Clemson
4) Texas(+2.5)/TexasA&M
5) Stanford(+32.5)/NotreDame
6) MiamiOhio(-17.5)/BallState
7) LA-Lafayette(-11.5)/LA-Monroe
8) Oklahoma(-10)/LSU
9) WashingtonSt(-13.5)/OregonState
10) TexasSt(-9)/SoAlabama
11) Virginia(-11)/VirginiaTech
12) Tulsa(-8.5)/UAB
13) KansasState(-17)/Colorado
14) Kansas(+13.5)/Utah
15) Delaware(-4.5)/UTEP

The algorithm’s first pick continues to bring value (9-4, .692). The rest of the algorithm’s value comes with its systemic volume (lots of picks -- reasonable worth). The Human Administrator would rather see progressive rank, which would be a technical attribute. However, that level of rank performance has been lacking this season.

Of course, such performance fuels the need to build that “better mousetrap” in the coming off-season. Suffice to say, new trends/methods are never far from mind for 2026. Bottom line, prediction remains a tough game......maybe never tougher.

Last week we grew to a seasonal high with 60 on the board. No one can complain about opportunity this week – a whopping 67 games. Which means only two FBS teams are on the sidelines. So, pushing away from the table to place those worthy wagers – have yourself a great Thanksgiving!
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A thank you to D-Town -- for his good-wish post. Adding one selection:
10.5) Oregon(-10)/USC

Good luck,
TheKingfish

No value posted here last week (6-8, .429). Over twelve; just four losing weeks – but with an overall unreflective of that record (79-73-1, .520). Peering into every game as usual, the box likes these for #13:
1) SMU(-2.5)/Louisville
2) KentState(+9)/CentralMich           L
3) GeorgiaTech(-2.5)/Pittsburgh
4) Oklahoma(-7.5)/Missouri
5) JamesMadison(-13.5)/WashingtonSt
6) Texas(-10)/Arkansas
7) BoiseState(-16.5)/ColoradoSt
8) WakeForest(-18)/Delaware
9) SanDiegoSt(-11.5)/SanJoseSt
10) TexasSt( -18.5)/LA-Monroe
11) LA-Lafayette(+3)/ArkansasSt
12) UtahSt(+3)/FresnoSt
13) MiamiFlorida(-16.5)/VirTech
14) Hawaii(+3.5)/UNLV

Even though the algorithm’s first pick has held strong (8-4, .667), additional rank-value has been hard to come by this season (???). Conversely, any value lies in the volume.

One positive to share though. The system has been competitive throughout the season -- as measured by SpreadMargin (SM). Normally having the aforementioned robust volume, technical cappers normally have SM as a more-finite means of measuring performance.

For example, how competitive was that 6-8 outing last Saturday? Well, for starters, none of those losses exceeded the historical SM average of 12.2. And despite a losing week, the 14-game SM total was +19.5 points. Quantifiably, that far exceeds the -24.4 (2 x -12.2) that would be expected from an average two-loss outing. Geek stuff to be sure.....

Last week we had a seasonal high with 58 on the board. This week, even more opportunity – 60 games. And looking ahead to Thanksgiving #14, we'll crest at 66.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record.
KentState(+9)/CentralMichigan
LA-Laf(+3)/ArkansasSt

Good luck,
TheKingfish

Thanks to D-Town for the posted support. Doing an ordered reset:
1) USC(-6.5)/Iowa
2) Tulsa(+3)/OregonState
3) LSU(-6)/Arkansas
4) GeorgiaSt (+7)/Marshall
5) LA-Monroe(+4)/SoAlabama
6) BallState(+3)/EasternMichigan
7) Alabama(-6.5)/Oklahoma
8) Louisville (-2)/Clemson
9) OhioState(-31.5)/UCLA
10) Washington(-16.5)/Purdue
11) NewMexico(-14)/ColoradoSt
12) FloridaSt(-13)/ VirginiaTech
13) MiamiFlorida(-14)/NorthCarSt
14) WestKentucky(-13.5)/MiddleTenn

I placed both the Cardinals and the Hurricanes this morning, so got the slightly more-advantageous number on each. Plus, the box had been waiting patiently on a better-number for two more (Tulsa & Ball State; both added).
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A bit of value was conveyed here last week (5-2, .714). Over eleven weeks, just three losers; albeit with an overall that is little better than flipping a coin (73-65-1, .529). Turning the crank on every game, the box likes all of these:
1) USC(-6.5)/Iowa
2) LSU(-6)/Arkansas
3) GeorgiaSt (+7)/Marshall
4) LA-Monroe(+4)/SoAlabama
5) Alabama(-6.5)/Oklahoma
6) Louisville (-3)/Clemson
7) OhioState(-31.5)/UCLA
8) Washington(-16.5)/Purdue
9) NewMexico(-14)/ColoradoSt
10) FloridaSt(-13)/ VirginiaTech
11) MiamiFlorida(-14.5)/ NorthCarSt
12) WestKentucky(-13.5)/MiddleTenn

The algorithm’s first pick continues to hold strong (8-3, .727). However, a good statistician would correctly advise......beware the small sample size.

I don’t always include a Boring Info Segment, but it’s sometimes unavoidable (geeky nature). Logging final scores last week (as tech cappers always do), I noticed how very-competitive the line seemed to be. As we entered week 10/11, my post spoke to the concept of SpreadMargin (SM) and how The Man was setting a 2025 tougher number in comparison to my past-years database (2013-24, 7583 games). Respectively, those long and short average SMs were 12.23 and 11.51 points. A NG reduction of six percent.....

So, has the 2025 overall average moved; growing even tougher? Taking a quick look; the average SM currently stands at 11.97. So, for the record, and contrary to my anecdotal perception, it has recently moved in a direction reflecting ‘less’ linemaker strength.

We have a seasonal opportunity high-point with 58 on the board this week. To your better fortunes, jump on it.....
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A thank you to D-Town for his earlier-posted good wishes. I rarely get replies -- so much appreciate all those that come in. Adding one more pick:
1.5) Connecticut(+8.5)/Duke

Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record; coming in with an update. Having an early-week hunch on these two regarding line movement -- I fortuitously waited until this morning to place:
1) Vanderbilt(-6)/Auburn
3) Louisville(-18)/California

No talent involved with that casual pause; just lucky. Also, via line movement, the algorithm has come to like UCLA/Nebraska. The Bruins would be slotted between Vandy & Clemson on the rank list. However, they are currently at +1, and the box is partial to them only if they get to >=2. So, please pencil me in for that if-come. Thank you.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A lousy outcome here last Saturday (2-4-1, .333). Some close ones though! Does that count for anything? So, over ten weeks; three losers and an overall that is far less than stellar (68-63-1, .519). With the box able to examine them all, it sees these as worthy (all chalk this week):
1) Vanderbilt(-6.5)/Auburn
2) Clemson(-2.5)/FloridaSt
3) Louisville(-19.5)/California
4) NorthCarolina(-7.5)/Stanford
5) Akron(-10)/Mass             W
6) Alabama(-10)/LSU

Rank value. While it logged a loser in the top spot last week, the algorithm has gone 7-3 (.700) on the season.

We all have 51 on the board this week. Lots of opportunity.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record.
Akron(-10)/Mass

Placed this morning @ -110, players are seeing considerable 'more value' in the Zips since then (-12.5). If it gets to -14, I will be pulling the lever on a middle gambit. My last try was 11/16/24, but I am forever-eager when the opportunity presents.....
Good luck,
TheKingfish

That is correct -- in the order the algorithm valued them.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Purely in the name of algorithm output accuracy; a rank-change to convey:
1) California (+5)/Virginia
2) Tennessee(-2.5)/Oklahoma

This is a nuance of dealing with a rote mechanism -- like the history-based box. The algorithm actually ‘liked’ the Vols a bit more at -3. The Human Administrator deals with this on occasion. An example: where maybe a +8 dog is designated a best-bet at +7, but not at the higher number. Where, if in reverse, I’d need to wait on the larger number. If that sounds confusing, just please write it off to tech madness.....
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A small revision:
Tennessee(-2.5)/Oklahoma

I conveniently posted my full group on Wednesday because the Blue Raiders were going that night. However, I had not yet placed the Vols due to some vagaries observed in the odds. I got them at -105 this morning, but other-outlet odds suggest the number may yet flip back to -3 (???). One important element to all of this is recognizing optimum price/value points. But, you already knew that....
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A .500 outcome was had here last Saturday (9-9). Over nine weeks, just two were losers; though the record is far less compelling (66-59, .528). Evaluating each one for week #10, the box likes these:
1) Tennessee(-3)/Oklahoma
2) California (+5)/Virginia
3) MiddleTenn(+6)/JacksonvilleSt
4) Michigan(-21)/Purdue
5) Utah(-7)/Cincinnati
6) Texas(-3)/Vanderbilt
7) Stanford(+14)/Pittsburgh

The algorithm has shown some rank-value over the top eight, but has been gangbusters at the very top (7-2, .778). Statistically, the latter is a small sample size, so trust as you will.

We have 52 on the board this week, providing all of us tech cappers a mountain of opportunity.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Adding yet another – which prompts a re-order for overall clarity.
1) WestKentucky(+3.5)/LouisTech        W
2) UtahState(+3)/NewMexico
3) ColoradoSt(+4.5)/Wyoming
4) WesternMich(+2.5)/MiamiOhio
5) Oklahoma(-4.5)/Mississippi
6) BowlingGreen(-7.5)/KentState
7) Memphis(+5)/SouthFlorida
8) IowaState(-2.5)/ BrighamYoung
9) GeorgiaSt (+6.5)/SoAlabama           L
10) Tulsa(+6.5)/Temple
11) Washington(-4.5)/Illinois
12) Arkansas(-2.5)/Auburn
13) LSU(+3)/TexasA&M
14) Vanderbilt(-2.5)/Missouri
15) VirginiaTech(-4.5)/California          W
16) Indiana(-24)/UCLA
17) MiamiFlorida(-30)/Stanford
18) WashingtonSt(-1)/Toledo

Good luck,
TheKingfish

For the record – adding two more.
1.5) ColoradoSt(+4.5)/Wyoming
9.5) Arkansas(-2.5)/Auburn

The algorithm also likes WesternMichigan, but only if they get to +3. The Broncos are currently at 1.5 -- and seemingly much-liked at that number.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

A winner was had here last Saturday (10-8, .556). And thus far, this slot has seen six winning weeks out of eight. Albeit, something less compelling in the overall (57-50, .533). Given the technical ability to assess them all, the turned-crank on the box yields these for week number nine:
1) WestKentucky(+3.5)/LouisTech
2) UtahState(+3)/NewMexico
3) Oklahoma(-4.5)/Mississippi
4) BowlingGreen(-7.5)/KentState
5) Memphis(+5)/SouthFlorida
6) IowaState(-2.5)/ BrighamYoung
7) GeorgiaSt (+6.5)/SoAlabama
8) Tulsa(+6.5)/Temple
9) Washington(-4.5)/Illinois
10) LSU(+3)/TexasA&M
11) Vanderbilt(-2.5)/Missouri
12) VirginiaTech(-4.5)/California
13) Indiana(-24)/UCLA
14) MiamiFlorida(-30)/Stanford
15) WashingtonSt(-1)/Toledo

So, with the season over half gone, can anything be said regarding systemic rank-value? Well, the top pick has shown some value (6-2, .750). And since the mentioned tech adjustment was made in week #6, the algorithm has brought a reasonable combination of success & volume to the top eight selections (16-8, .667).

However, do we have genuine-worth at the core? And, moreover, is any of that performance sustainable? I suppose the last six weeks will tell the tale. We have 53 on the board this week; certainly a robust amount of opportunity for one and all.
Good luck,
TheKingfish

Note: Posting a bit early this week due to the travel calendar. So, would appreciate a humane bump if I fall into oblivion (and someone feels the KF is deserving).

For the record – adding two more.
5.3) Clemson(-5.5)/SMU
5.6) SouthFlorida(-21)/FloridaAtlantic

Good luck,
TheKingfish