TD21

Back to smaller plays and ok with high volume.  So far pretty good reads on which way the lines should move.  Waiting on several games that have not been offered yet.

Week 5 College Extra / FCS:

Rhode Island / Western Michigan Under 47.5 -110 (1.5u)

Austin Peay -13.5 -110 (1u)

Dayton -23.5 -110 (1u)

Maine -13.5 -110 (1u)

Jackson State -13.5 -110 (1u)

Elon -15.5 -110 (0.75u)

Richmond -9.5 -110 (0.75u)

McNeese State / Stephen F. Austin Over 48.5 -110 (0.5u)

Nicholls State +6.5 -110 (0.5u)

Albany +17.5 -110 (0.5u)

William & Mary +9.5 -110 (0.25u)

Stephen F. Austin -13.5 -110 (0.2u)

This side was quickly bet from -6.5 opener to -7.5.  I make it closer to -11 to -12.  But took a position on the Total instead.

Week 5 College Extra / FCS:

Rhode Island / Western Michigan Under 47.5 -110 (1.5u)

A little late to the party on this, but with Manny Diaz's style of play on defense and with the QB injury, I'll take Duke here.

Week 5 FBS locked in:

Baylor -19.5 -110 (2u)

Utah State +22.5 -110 (1u)

Mississippi State +10 -110 (1u)

Added: Duke -5.5 -105 (1u)

Alabama / Georgia Over 53.5 -115 (0.9u)

Notre Dame -6.5 -110 (0.75u)

Last week was a mess!  Again!  The FBS plays were simply bad including a couple of Lookahead Lines that I should not have played in hindsight.  And in-game I made some mistakes with doubling down too soon in a couple games that I played the Total. 

Looks like 5-5 on College Extra and FCS.  Now, this is where I am struggling because I made an effort to trim down the number of plays from Week 3 to Week 4.  Looking back at my full list of plays to consider in Week 4 and had I just taken the opener on everything I listed I would have gone 27-13.  Talk about a mind fck,... I'm really struggling with this.  My feel on these games has been really good, but which games I'm most confident in has been off.  Not sure what the answer is.  Flat bet maybe and just power through it??  Anyway, close to my worst two back to back weeks ever other than when I first started in 2011 and was too greedy at the start of this endeavour.

Week 5 FBS plays locked in on Sunday:

Baylor -19.5 -110 (2u)

Utah State +22.5 -110 (1u)

Mississippi State +10 -110 (1u)

Alabama / Georgia Over 53.5 -115 (0.9u)

Notre Dame -6.5 -110 (0.75u)

@marman1224

Yep, I know that the all conf CB is out, but still seems like a lot of points for two evenly matched teams.  Should be a back & forth tight game to me, but maybe I'm missing something.  GL today!

Week 4:

Illinois +4.5 -110 (1u) +4.5 -104 (1u) (2u overall)

Wyoming / Colorado Under 46.5 -110 (1.5u)

USC -13.5 -110 (1u)

Florida International -5 -110 (1u)

Iowa / Rutgers Under 46.5 -110 (0.5u)

Tennessee -37.5 -112 (0.5u)

Memphis +3.5 -103 1st Half (0.5u)

And not recommended now, but Lookahead from two weeks ago:

Florida +4.5 -105 (1.3u)

College Extra & FCS:

Idaho / San Jose State Under 50.5 -110 (2u)

VMI / Richmond Under 43.5 -110 (1.25u)

San Diego / Princeton Under 50.5 -110 (1u)

Sacramento State -10.5 -110 (1u)

Southern Illinois -6.5 -105 (0.8u)

Wofford / Virginia Tech Under 48.5 -110 (0.75u)

Northern Arizona -2.5 -110 (0.75u)

The Citadel +8.5 -110 (0.75u)

Eastern Washington -9.5 (0.6u)

Added:  South Carolina State +38.5 -110 (0.4u)

Thanks guys, appreciate it.  A little more luck would be good.  Some tough losses these last two weeks on swing games.

One update below:

Week 4:

Illinois +4.5 -110 (1u) +4.5 -104 (1u) (2u overall)

Wyoming / Colorado Under 46.5 -110 (1.5u)

USC -13.5 -110 (1u)

Florida International -5 -110 (1u)

Iowa / Rutgers Under 46.5 -110 (0.5u)

Tennessee -37.5 -112 (0.5u)

Added:  Memphis +3.5 -103 1st Half (0.5u)

And not recommended now, but Lookahead from two weeks ago:

Florida +4.5 -105 (1.3u)

College Extra & FCS:

Idaho / San Jose State Under 50.5 -110 (2u)

VMI / Richmond Under 43.5 -110 (1.25u)

San Diego / Princeton Under 50.5 -110 (1u)

Sacramento State -10.5 -110 (1u)

Southern Illinois -6.5 -105 (0.8u)

Wofford / Virginia Tech Under 48.5 -110 (0.75u)

Northern Arizona -2.5 -110 (0.75u)

The Citadel +8.5 -110 (0.75u)

Eastern Washington -9.5 (0.6u)

Updates:

Week 4:

Illinois +4.5 -110 (1u) +4.5 -104 (1u) (2u overall)

Wyoming / Colorado Under 46.5 -110 (1.5u)

USC -13.5 -110 (1u)

Added:  Florida International -5 -110 (1u)

Iowa / Rutgers Under 46.5 -110 (0.5u)

Tennessee -37.5 -112 (0.5u)

And not recommended now, but Lookahead from two weeks ago:

Florida +4.5 -105 (1.3u)

Added since openers late yesterday:

College Extra & FCS:

Idaho / San Jose State Under 50.5 -110 (2u)

VMI / Richmond Under 43.5 -110 (1.25u)

San Diego / Princeton Under 50.5 -110 (1u)

Sacramento State -10.5 -110 (1u)

Southern Illinois -6.5 -105 (0.8u)

Wofford / Virginia Tech Under 48.5 -110 (0.75u)

Northern Arizona -2.5 -110 (0.75u)

The Citadel +8.5 -110 (0.75u)

Eastern Washington -9.5 (0.6u)

What I took yesterday and have so far:

Week 4:

Illinois +4.5 -110 (1u) & Lookahead from last week Illinois +4.5 -104 (1u) (2u overall)

Wyoming / Colorado Under 46.5 -110 (1.5u)

USC -13.5 -110 (1u)

Iowa / Rutgers Under 46.5 -110 (0.5u)

Tennessee -37.5 -112 (0.5u)

And not recommended now, but Lookahead from two weeks ago that I have to deal with:

Florida +4.5 -105 (1.3u) ouch

@bookieassassin

Dilfer with 31 points at the half puts up a goose egg in the 2nd half.  smh as I think about that some more.  Just faded him this week.  Heupel off a loss should take it to UAB.

Nothing like waking up at dawn for a fall baseball game after a very, very humbling Saturday of college football wagering.  I'll have to double check it later today, but first pass of my spreadsheet is -19.4 units for the week, which puts me at -7.8u for the college football season.  Unfamiliar territory; when you're playing from ahead, its a different mindset.  I will obviously need to be more selective moving forward.  Sorry to any of you that played some of these.  It's not a good feeling to get your @ss kicked so badly like that.  A couple swing games didn't go my way, but also a lot of bad calls.

Week 4: only opener last night was USC -13.5 -110 (1u)

Sorry all, New Haven playing really well so far tonight.  Surprised by that, I guess the high variance comment is coming true.

Week 3 Locked In:

New Mexico +14.5 -110 (3u) & New Mexico +15.5 -110 (1u) -- (4u overall)  WIN

Buffalo -22.5 -110 (2.5u) & -21.5 -110 (0.5u) -- (3u overall)

Temple +26.5 -110 (1u) & +27.5 -115 (1.5u)  -- (2.5u overall)

Central Michigan at Michigan Under 42.5 -110 (2.5u)

Penn State -47.5 -110 (2.5u)

Richmond / North Carolina Under 46.5 -105 (1.7u) & U 47.5 -110 (0.8u)  (2.5u overall)

UAB -8.5 -110 vs. Akron  (0.5u) & UAB -9.5 -146 (2.19u to win 1.5u) & UAB -10 -130 (to win 0.4u). (to win 2.4u overall)

South Florida +17.5 -110 (2u)

Wyoming +24 -110 (2u)

Houston -3 -115 (1.5u)  WIN

Ole Miss -9.5 -110 vs. Arkansas (1.5u)

Indiana -41.5 -110 (1u)  WIN

Missouri -23.5 -110 (1u)

Georgia State -28 -130 (1u) 

Texas State +14.5 -115 (0.75u)

Northwestern/Oregon Under 52.5 -110 (0.75u)

New Hampshire / Ball State Under 24.5 -120 1st Half (0.7u)

Georgia -6.5 -110 (0.4u)

Baylor -47.5 -110 (0.3u)

Baylor / Samford Over 58.5 -110 (0.3u)

FCS Week 3:

Albany -17 -120 (5.25u)

Tennessee Tech -38.5 -110 (2u) & -37.5 -110 (0.7u) (2.7u overall)

Southern Illinois -4.5 -110 (1u) &  -3.5 (0.75u) &  -2.5 -114 (0.5u)  (2.25u overall)

Wofford / Mercer Under 45.5 -110 (2u)

San Diego +24.5 -110 (1u) & +31.5 -110 (1u) (2u overall)

Western Illinois -6.5 -110 (1.5u)

North Dakota +4.5 -110 (1.5u)

Holy Cross +7.5 -110 (1.3u)

Northern Iowa -6.5 -110 (1u)

Elon -6.5 -110 (1u)

NDSU -32.5 -110 (0.75u)

Tarleton State -9.5 -110 (0.75u)

Added:  Drake / South Dakota State Under 48.5 -110 (0.75u)

@MudPhud3

 No problem, enjoy the games today!  

@MudPhud3

I watched New Haven play in Week 1 vs. Marist because I had a live bet.  The team's move up to FCS from D2 was not something that the head coach and the school's administration agreed on, so he resigned and then they also had a mass exodus of players from last years team leave the program.  The new QB and one WR are good and they can throw the ball some, but both lines, entire defense really, and special teams were downright terrible.  The Albany result vs. Delaware State helps some with the line IMO.  Albany with some guys back in the Secondary, so the only way that New Haven can move the ball is a decent matchup for Albany.  I make the line -38, which is probably too aggressive on my #s like usual, but even if it "should" be -28, its well more than the -14.5 to -17.5 that are out there.  New Haven could turn out to be a high variance team, but so far I think you fade them every chance you get with how their offseason transition to FCS has been.

Been waiting for this one.  Didn't have access to -14.5 or -16.5 available elsewhere.

Week 3 Locked In:

New Mexico +14.5 -110 (3u) & New Mexico +15.5 -110 (1u) -- (4u overall)  WIN

Buffalo -22.5 -110 (2.5u) & -21.5 -110 (0.5u) -- (3u overall)

Temple +26.5 -110 (1u) & +27.5 -115 (1.5u)  -- (2.5u overall)

Central Michigan at Michigan Under 42.5 -110 (2.5u)

Penn State -47.5 -110 (2.5u)

Richmond / North Carolina Under 46.5 -105 (1.7u) & U 47.5 -110 (0.8u)  (2.5u overall)

UAB -8.5 -110 vs. Akron  (0.5u) & UAB -9.5 -146 (2.19u to win 1.5u) & UAB -10 -130 (to win 0.4u). (to win 2.4u overall)

South Florida +17.5 -110 (2u)

Wyoming +24 -110 (2u)

Houston -3 -115 (1.5u)  WIN

Ole Miss -9.5 -110 vs. Arkansas (1.5u)

Indiana -41.5 -110 (1u)  WIN

Missouri -23.5 -110 (1u)

Georgia State -28 -130 (1u) 

Texas State +14.5 -115 (0.75u)

Northwestern/Oregon Under 52.5 -110 (0.75u)

New Hampshire / Ball State Under 24.5 -120 1st Half (0.7u)

Georgia -6.5 -110 (0.4u)

Baylor -47.5 -110 (0.3u)

Baylor / Samford Over 58.5 -110 (0.3u)

FCS Week 3:

Added:  Albany -17 -120 Max Bet (5.25u)

Tennessee Tech -38.5 -110 (2u) & -37.5 -110 (0.7u) (2.7u overall)

Southern Illinois -4.5 -110 (1u) &  -3.5 (0.75u) &  -2.5 -114 (0.5u)  (2.25u overall)

Wofford / Mercer Under 45.5 -110 (2u)

San Diego +24.5 -110 (1u) & +31.5 -110 (1u) (2u overall)

Western Illinois -6.5 -110 (1.5u)

North Dakota +4.5 -110 (1.5u)

Holy Cross +7.5 -110 (1.3u)

Northern Iowa -6.5 -110 (1u)

Elon -6.5 -110 (1u)

NDSU -32.5 -110 (0.75u)

Tarleton State -9.5 -110 (0.75u)

Played Michigan/CMU Under 52.5 -118 (0.5u) (live)

@Laroja

 It's ugly.  Block the punt for great field position and then give it right back.  Unreal.  Obviously took them lightly.

@OneADayJ

 Yep, took it for another 0.5u.  

@bookieassassin

 Yep, seeing -9.5 live now.     ..... good to hear from you today!  Good luck on your plays and hope to see you snooping around.