TD 2025 CFB

MW Futures:

Boise State -150 (Risk 0.6u to win 0.4).

Air Force +1600 (Risk 0.08u to win 1.28u)

San Jose State +1000 (Risk 0.09u to win 0.9u)

If BSU wins MW, net +0.23u

If AF wins MW, net +0.59u

If SJSU wins MW, net +0.22u

If Field wins MW, net -0.77u

These are all still available.  Sorry team, haven't been posting offseason plays.  Grinding to power rate remaining leagues & FCS is more of a priority I guess.  

Will have some FBS vs. FCS plays and FCS vs. FCS plays for Weeks 0 & 1, so starting a thread.

Action Play only just added for Week 0:  Iowa State +4 -110 (BA) (0.3u)

@TD21

 Thanks TD appreciate the insight.  Best of luck this year as always!

 Good luck buddy!!

Early lean state plus 4 

Thanks for posting TD!!! Look forward to your next thread.

@UNIMAN

 What’s your lean on the week O games or when will U be posting, I’m be looking forward to your selections 

great stuff thanks and GL  

BOL this year TD .....

Seen this? - the ultimate porn for stat nerds 

   * free - you know where - but only $10 anyway - about a $50 value 

https://www.cfbdepth.com/state-of-the-chart-college-football-preview-magazine/

Like TD21, just an action play for week 0, WKU/SHSU Over 60.5. 

GL this season!

“Stat nerd porn”  wow, killer site 

Thanks everyone!

BA, no truthfully have not seen that site.  ...... I miss the days of easy access to the Connelly advanced stats.

A few FCS vs. FBS games offered tonight.  Quick update:

Added:  Nicholls State / Troy Under 50.5 -110 (0.5u)

@UNIMAN

 Yes thanks for the action play, I like it both teams play fast and put up points last season 

good luck this year

@TD21

YEP

Those were a big help - still haven't found a (good) substitute

For those that haven't found this (his updated SP+ is hard to find sometimes) ...he has a shortcut to all his articles (google doc) pinned on his Twitter page - including SP+ for FCS teams  

Thanks for the hook up, my man.  I subscribed.  Good luck this season.  Looking forward to your threads.

Week 0: 

Iowa State +4 -110 (BA) (0.3u)

Week 1: 

Nicholls State / Troy Under 50.5 -110 (FD) (bumped to 0.75u)

Added:  Temple / Massachusetts Under 50.5 -110 (FD) (0.4u)

Added:  UTEP +4.5 -112 at Utah State (0.25u)  .... *wanted a little more, but limited.

The For What It's Worth Prior Stuff:

Georgia Tech -3.5 -110 (1u) ..... juiced -3.5 still available

Rutgers -11.5 -110 (1u)  ..... like -13.5 or better if it hovers around 2 touchdowns.

Buffalo / Minnesota Under 45.5 -110 (0.5u) ...... mostly 44.5 available now, still good for Under.  Side note, seeing one offshore shop with Buffalo +17 -110, like that too.

Texas +3 -107 (0.29u) ..... mostly +2.5 now, also consider taking Texas ML at this point.

Iowa State -16.5 -110 vs. South Dakota (0.3u)  ..... -15.5 -110 available now.  Bad spot for the Cyclones, but my #s make it quite a bit more.  Small play only.

*anybody else limited by a prominent mainstream book?  Any suggestions on how to increase limits?  ..... it's pretty frustrating.

@TD21

 DK totally throttled me. I stopped trying when they switched from 'VIP' service to ghosting.

Have some limits at other books but they are generally more reasonable or for specific plays. I do wonder if some share a platform. I got limited on another the same time as DK. 

You are taking Iowa State+4. I am thinking K-State wins by 6 plus...Not really a game to put any serious mula on, as it is game 1, in Ireland, travel, etc...Just too many variables...I will say, your +4, is a whole lot better than the current line of +3...So, maybe you squeak out a win. Let's see.

Other FWIW full season stuff.... Did not do very well on the more recent Regular Season Wins with taking a lot of juice being late to the party on some of these.  Early stuff mostly solid.  Better win a high percentage with that juice, HA!

Iowa Over 6.5 wins -150 (to win 0.13u) (BR) - 1st wager of the year way early.

Bowling Green Under 6.5 -145 (to win 0.19u)

Ohio State Under 10.5 -129 (to win 0.15u)

Buffalo Over 7.5 -110 (to win 0.7u)

Vanderbilt Over 4.5 -177 & -188 (to win 0.4u overall)

Oklahoma Over 6.5 -170 (to win 0.2u)

South Carolina Under 7.5 -128 (to win 0.6u)

Oregon Under 10.5 -140 (to win 0.3u)

Texas A&M Over 7.5 -170 (to win 0.25u)

Jacksonville State Under 6.5 -215 (to win 0.35u)

UCLA Under 5.5 -150 (to win 0.3u)

Lookahead / GOY Lines:

Penn State +4.5 -110 at Ohio State (0.7u)

Oklahoma -2.5 -110 vs. Michigan (0.5u)

Texas A&M +7.5 -118 at Notre Dame (0.2u)

National Championship Futures:

Alabama +1100 (risk 0.14u)

Notre Dame +1400 (risk 0.1u)

Penn State +700 (risk 0.07u)

Besides QB, these 1st two teams are pretty loaded.  Took these before ND preseason QB struggles.  Watch out for Bama if Russell plays as the season goes on.

To Make College Football Playoffs:

Alabama, Yes -184

Texas A&M, No -215

Texas A&M, Yes +235, very small arbitrage opportunity.  Should have put my $ in a CD maybe instead.  

To Win MAC Conference:

Buffalo +550 (risk 0.18u to win 0.99u)

Toledo +250 (risk 0.18u to win 0.45u)

Central Michigan +2300 (risk 0.06u to win 1.38u)

To Win B12 Conference:

Houston +3500, +3300, +3000 - had to make 3 separate wagers just to risk 0.15u to win 5.0u

@JozKnows

 Thanks for the feedback.  Appreciate it.  Good luck to you this season!  

@TrainCocknToast

It briefly hit +4 -110 at an offshore book, had to hop in for the Week 0 Small Action Play.  My #s make Iowa State a 1 point favorite on a Neutral field.  We'll see if they can get those big TEs involved more this year with the WR losses.  My guy Matt Campbell is a solid coach and has had KSU's number; we'll see if it continues, but I just need a close game.  Should be a back & forth game I think, might be a good game to live bet as they trade scores (or punts).

FCS Week 0:

Mercer +3.5 -110 (0.3u)

Tarleton State -15.5 -110 (0.3u)

I'm interested in the UTEP angle. Year 2 in complicated scheme and year zero for bronco? I have pause only because how competent bronco teams can be.. e.g. UNM

FCS Week 0:

Mercer +3.5 -110 (0.3u)

Tarleton State -15.5 -110 (0.3u)

Added: Incarnate Word -13.5 -102 (0.3u)

Are you using FanDuel? I'm guessing you are limited because you are beating them or the closing line too often.