takethecannolis

@LineLord

 Best of luck! But remember, in the words of Bogi Yerra….”it’s never undah til it’s ovah”

@takethecannolis

And to add to my post that you need to win 70% of your plays….

Considering the vig, a win percentage of 67% means you break even. Have fun. Get some action. Strike when you’re going good. Listen to your gut. Pick your spots!
        
Good luck all!

@monkeebooger

Thanks!

Nobody…nobody is gonna be right on their picks more than 70% of the time. So I try to make it informative and, most importantly, entertaining.

Good luck!

@tjones1270

Regarding trends…

Old school angle is “go against any road team that did not cover their last game, breaking a minimum three game ATS win streak”

To kinda go with the Modelo Beer guy….tread carefully my friends!

Good luck!

Hello Covers Community. Week 6 of the NFL presented me with quite a few angle plays. But I had an angel on my one shoulder and a devil on the other. Translation…my usual strong leans are compromised by their futile play and strange point spreads. Here we go with one…
      
I’m going to stay in the Big Easy this week. The Pats visit as a 3.5 favorite. NE comes off an impressive nationally televised win versus their division rival Buffalo Bills. The Saints beat the NY Giants. Time for the crickets soundtrack….

I like Mike Vrabel. He has brought energy to the Patriots. But, stay with me here….

The DC of the Giants (last week’s opponent) and the DC of the Patriots, now, both spent time on Vrabel’s coaching staff in Tennessee. Spencer Rattler stated that the defensive scheme for the Giants last week was “predictable”. Also, are the visitors good enough now to come off a road victory against the Bills and double up with a win in New Orleans? Rattler played well last week and now the home team is integrating a game plan using Taysom Hill under center. 

Kellen Moore broke his cherry as a head coach last week. There’s something contagious after winning your first game. As a home dog on Sunday, I’m on the Saints. As we get closer to Sunday, I’ll need to decide on taking the points or money line.

And for you guys that are wondering….my other “non plays” would have been the Giants and Jaguars.

Good luck all!

@Blb

 Congrats….

With your confidence, I kissed my sister and bought a 1/2 point with Cleveland and got a push.

Thanks!

@vetdrm

I have been on Percy’s Bar since her maiden win. I believed the home court advantage would turn the tables on Tommy Jo.

I have to cut to the quick…. Luan Machado may have cost himself future mounts on live horses based on his stretch ride today. Could have TJ passed PB and won? Possibly. But it was if I was watching a 10 lb. bug riding Percy in the stretch. Colebrook knows he has a nice filly. Needs to reach out to a seasoned journeyman…. “ Hello? Flavian? Ben Colebrook here….”

Hello Covers Community. Week 5 brings some opportunities, but because of results from last week, not the absolute rock solid sides I had hoped for. I think that scenario might be delayed until week 6. Here we go…

Game one has me traveling across the pond to London. Vikings laying 3 1/2 here. I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed, but hear me out…

The Browns have averaged 10.7 points a game in their last 9 games. Ouch. The Norsemen have beaten the Bengals and Bears this year. Big deal. Cleveland has beaten the Packers. Stefanski picks this game in Europe to switch the QB. Also, as many of you all know, Coach Stefanski lived with the Vikings for 14 years in various coaching responsibilities. He has faced the Vikings once as head coach of the Brownies. That resulted in a “W”. Grabbing the 3 1/2 points here.

Game two has me replaying a scenario that cashed last week. Whenever there is a big majority on the dog, I’m taking the favorite. Simple. Taking the Saints -2 1/2. Last week the public was heavy on Washington, I went Falcons. Winnah. 

Game three, yep covering all three time zone games! This could qualify as an “I need psychoanalysis” pick. My reason number two with Atlanta last week was that they were embarrassingly shutout by a divisional foe in week three. Well, this scenario appears this week. Tennessee was shutout by Houston last week. There is a difference where, unlike the Falcons, the Titans are on the road. I sided with Tennessee in week three… an absolute ass kicking in Indianapolis. The Cardinals OLine is a mess and Cam Ward called out his team after last game. I’m willing to take a decent shot here with the visitors in Arizona on Sunday.  As I back the Titans, the words of Elvis echo in my mind…”It’s Now or Never”. Grabbing the 7 1/2 points here.

Good luck all!

@ABooksNightmare

 Ask Eddie George.

@T3PeteDawg

 When you’re on the edge of your seat, begging for a win……

Good luck, but you just talked me off my Denver bet.

The newest version of Matt Schaub.

@Ppkay

 I agree to a point. Again, I don’t like laying the wood. But I see the Bengals running out of gas late and the Horsies winning by double digits.

Good luck to you!

Hello Covers Community. The NFL goes into week four with, what I feel, are quite a few “no comment” matchups. But, what happens this weekend will absolutely set up next week with some stand out plays.

Going to Atlanta for the second time this year. The Dirty Birds failed me in week one, thanks to Choochie Koo missing a 43 yd.FG to tie the game. Koo is gone. The Falcons come off the most embarrassing game an NFL team can have….a bagel against a divisional Panthers rival. My feel angle is something ingrained in me forever…if the underdog has more than half the interest, take the favorite. Fly Falcons fly. 

My logic angle brings me to Monday night. The Broncos come off two road losses that were decided by a total of 4 points.They come home to play a compromised Cincinnati team. Denver plays their next two on the road. Must win here. I’m not laying 485 money line, but I’ll take even money on a cover. I do not like taking teams on the left side of the point spreads, but I will here. Buck Buck Buck Broncos.

Good luck all!

Any line that is 5 or 5.5, is really because of the rarity of that end score, is more like 7. I’m grabbing the points

.

Hello Covers Community. Week three usually produces surprises. Look at the percentages of the teams that are selected on Covers. There are quite a few lopsided matchups. With that being said…

I’m looking at the Titans. Yes, the Titans to show up on Sunday. The Colts are playing their first road game this week and they come in off a gift win versus Denver. The Colts beat the Fins in week one. The Fins are a mess. Then, the Colts lucked out last week. Should Indiana Jones be a road favorite? No. Taking the points. I know Tennessee has more L’s than a Paris beauty pageant, but I’m on them.

Jumping over to Monday night. Lamar Jackson is 24-2 versus the NFC. How do you ignore that? I will. The -5, -5.5 line is really a “sucker line” for those looking to take the favorite. The Motor City Kitty Kats put up 52 last week. I know, it was against Chicago, but it was 52. 52. 52! When will you get +5 on a team that just scored 52 the game before? Taking the Lions.

Good luck all!

@Puerta2Puerta

How do you allow 55 stay in the game? Coughlin and Parcells would have him escorted to the locker room, packed his bags and gave him a plane ticket to the destination of his choice.

Hello Covers Community. I have juice here with the Saints and I wanted to share a view for the 2nd half…

Coach Kellen Moore, in the 2nd half, will pull out his Boise State playbook and open up a track meet for New Orleans. He doesn’t want to lose his first two games, at home, as a new coach. If he doesn’t, there’s always next week. Not.

Good luck all.

Hello Covers Community. Week 2 of the NFL season brings my attention to the Big Easy and an opinion.

I am not a statistics guy, although I know all the teams strengths and weaknesses. I am, and always have been, a situational handicapper. I do base some opinions on line moves and opening point spreads. This week I post my strong situational reasons.

The 49ers come off a road win in Seattle and now travel a loooong way the play the Saints. New Orleans lost their home opener last week and look to make amends for their fans as a home dog this week. So, do I side with a team looking to win two straight games on the road to open the season? Or, do I believe in the home team trying to avoid two straight losses at home to start 2025? 

The Saints play their next two on the road. The Niners are starting Mac Jones at QB. I’m gonna take the $$$ line on the Saints to win outright.

Good luck all!

@CHIHAWK

 I’m not a shrink, but if you hang on to a bad loss…you shouldn’t gamble. Always have to forget em. Celebrate the good wins.

Hello Covers Community. It’s a loooong season, so pick your spots. Here goes week 1….

Flying to Atlanta and picking this game between divisional foes for the first play. The home team is a slight dog here and I’m on them for the following reasons:

The Falcons took both games versus the Bucs last year

The Falcons play their next two games on the road, so this home spot is an almost gotta show up here

The Falcons lost their opening game at home last year. Coach remembers and wants this W against his former squad.

Always like the home team in a week 1 game versus a divisional opponent

Good luck all!