LadiesMan_

@Mafia1717

 You are correct.

I did not see this coming.

I didn't play this week.

Returning to the game!

COWBOYS ML!!!

Monday night football...

I'm not going to give a huge writeup.

I will give you this.

I'll take the Boys on PrimeTime at home vs. The very beat up Cards D and without their starting QB.

Not much to write about.

Yea the public may see it as the favorite call...

Let's be honest...

This one is situational.

After last week's performance? I think the Cowboys have a good shot to win this game outright. 

Cowboys ML! 

Thanks guys. Really appreciate the love!

Dolphins ML 

Bills ML! 

Ravens ML

Jets ML 

MASSIVE PAYDAY today! 

$34,500!

Look....

Look at the game. The books clean up on the idea that all these loser teams are expected to lose and people fool around with spreads.

The real action is in figuring out who WINS despite the impossible narrative.

Anybody could take a glance and be like "oh look these teams suck ka-ching $..."

Books clean house on that.

Don't be fooled.

Not all these heavy favs are going to win.

The books set the lines knowing it and knowing people don't have the balls to bet bad teams.

Bad teams winning is part of the NFL.

It will never change.

Remember that.

Ok. 6-7 record to date.

Monday night truly was a catastrophe for me anyway. Texans and Bucs just weren't in the cards to play upset.

Chargers ML. 

Got me back to 1 game under .500 for posted plays.

I don't count plays I don't post.

Not that impressive.  But the clock keeps ticking....

This is a dangerous week.

in my years, the NFL has tought me that there is absolutely zero chance all favorites win outright.

This is an unusual week of very large dogs barking and painful wagering ahead for us.

So here it comes.

Too many large underdogs and large favorites STINKS of the books trying to clean up on all favorites.

There are some real nasty games out there.

Go on the idea that 30% of all dogs on ANY GIVEN SUNDAY win outright.

4 plays.

BILLS ML. (Large favorites) If the Bills are legit... they will win this game.

RAVENS ML. (Suspect Large favorites) this is it for the Ravens. They lose this one. It may indeed be game over. Does Lamar play? Are the Ravens healthy enough? This was a team that was an early on top 5, even top 3 to Win the Super Bowl this year. Are they done? We will find out.

Back to the worst of the worst. Let's try this again.

If you're going to win...

.....You can't play it safe. It is an ugly road....

 HUGE DOGS

DOLPHINS ML.

JETS ML.

Details to follow why....

@D-Town

Dropped to 5-7 

Bucs and Texans dogs burned ??. 

Monday night truly was a catastrophe.

But. I'm still alive. Lol. Survived the apocalypse....

So coming back with Chargers ML.

Thursday Night.

Short and sweet. No huge writeup.

Chargers win.

If they don't?

Maybe the Chargers just don't deserve the respect they get on the money. 

Chargers. ML.

@lajohn

@lookingtowin

The Houston Texans currently have the BEST and highest-rated points per game allowed defense in the NFL, allowing an average of just 12.2 points per game. That's #1.

Now you can argue about competition and so forth. Fair argument. But if they weren't #1, given that argument, there could be pause for concern.

Seattle is a passing beast. Over 9.2 yards per pass while Houston is giving up only 5.7 yards per pass.

Believe me, they will be making plays. Seattle is pass happy.

Turnovers in this game may indeed be one of the deciding factors. If Seattle plays a perfect game on offense, steady but doesn't turn over the ball...This will make it difficult for Houston.

But that's not to say it all rides on the Defense.

There are too many handicappers out there not giving Houston's offense much, arguing the offensive line hasn't been as good as it should be. Understood. Houston comes into this game with a middle of the pack offense so to speak. But let's remember, this is a team coming off the bye, riding two wins and looking to bring themselves to .500. A lot of prep has gone into this game. Knowing that the Houston Texans are missing WR Christian Kirk doesn't help, but CJ Stroud is no slouch.

All things aside, Houston is generally perceived to be the healthier football team of the two coming into this game. Believe me, on road that matters a lot. Coming off the bye does hold significant advantages in terms of game preparation and physical endurance. Stats don't always show that. Records after the bye are misleading because year in and year out opponents and conditions are different. So I don't put much stock in it.

It boils down to this. The Texans are going to have to turn the corner a bit on offensive schemes and generate longer series to get through that very good Seattle Defense. Meanwhile, the Texans defense is going to have to make, what is typically a very efficient Seahawks offense, less efficient.

Seahawks are a massive public play. That should concern any handicappers out there that are well enough aware that there is nothing certain in the NFL.

If it was simply as easy as just take the Seahawks, sports books would be closed.

A couple of long drives, a few 3 and outs, maybe a turnover or 2, a couple of key stops bend but don't break defense, some disciplined football by Houston and you could very well be waking up tomorrow morning reading about how great CJ Stroud is.

It is how it always works. Nothing new to us. Sometimes the NFL is about instincts and guts as much as skill when it comes to picking winners.

Seattle isn't unbeatable. If they were? The line wouldn't be 3 points.

I'm going on guts and instincts on this play. I think Houston plays a really good game. Seattle, not so much.

TEXANS ML

Ok. On to why the Texans pull off an upset. By all measure, it would be one.

Despite the fact that the Seahawks have lost a whopping eight times in their last 12 home games,....

....which is really disturbing when you think of it because that equates to 1/3rd or 33.3% winning percentage at home... they play at home 3 times, twice they lose... they have already lost twice at home this season...

The concept that a team is "due" to end their struggles isn't in line with historical trend of the NFL. When you struggle, you struggle. Home field hasn't been kind to the Seahawks. They are great road team and a coin toss at home.

This is still Sam Darnold and the Seahawks.

Tough one on Monday night, no question.


Let's face it. It is obvious there aren't a whole lot of handicappers out there all out on the Texans for Monday night.

But this is exactly why I like them. The public never handicaps games like these properly and never see it until it is too late. It's always some big shocking upset you read about the following day. Everyone left scratching their heads wondering why they all threw their money into the fireplace just because it "appears" to be a safe and easy pick to take Seattle.

There is reason this game is a 3 point push on most books. Even the books themselves believe this game is too close for comfort. Mind you, Darnold has some impressive percentages in his favor for game winning drives etc.

But...

When you talk about the Texans? Where do you start? The vaunted Defense.

I think this Texans Defensive unit stands out. Rankings place them 4th, but they very well could be 1st. Yes, I realize they haven't come up against "The D-Arnold Terminator T-800" offensive machine...

But this is Monday Night. On these prime time games, there is always some form of drama.

To start. The BUCS.

Where do we begin? We begin with who should win MVP this season... Baker Mayfield.

This man is a juggernaut.

Books and odds makers have him predicted to throw for anywhere from 33 to 34 tries and the Lions secondary has been lit up by the pass the last several weeks.

Mahomes did it. Lamar did it before his absence. Even Flacco when with Cleveland managed 185 yards or so....

Tampa is looking way finer than any of those teams.

Baker is shredding defenses left, right and center and it looks like he is getting major pieces back, some real offensive weapons back this Monday Night. Mike Evans, a 6 foot 5 inch monster is back and apparently so is Emeka Egbuka, rookie of the year standout. With them in the lineup, the Bucs are a dream dog for any handicappers looking to make bank.

The Lions secondary, despite a pretty solid run defense, is really beat up.

Safety Brian Branch's suspension leaves them short. Starting cornerback D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold out. And it looks like Kerby Joseph has knee problems and may not play. Even if he does? How effective will he be?

This is a Lions’ secondary that is in catastrophic conditions for a game of this magnitude. If Joseph is out, can’t go or gets hurt trying to play? This will cost Detroit dearly. They may even hold him out of the lineup because he can't run with a bum knee or risk losing him long term.

This would leave the Lions down both starting safeties and both starting cornerbacks.

The Lions can't win games apparently unless they put up over 30 points in a game and quite frankly, I don't see them doing that against a very difficult Bucs D. This game has been circled by the Bucs. They know Detroit is a test and they want Supremacy in the NFC.

Tampa Bay could very well come out of the NFC. These guys are contenders. This is a 5-1 football team playing as a dog on the road on Monday night. I don't think they are getting enough respect.

Now you could make a play for the spread.

But I am taking them to WIN this football game.

Detroit with their badly beaten up secondary, the passing game of Baker expected to come fast and furious as well as his two threat ability to run on a pinch...

....the Lions will have to be almost flawless when Jared Goff gets the ball to win this game and I just don't see it happening.

Yea Goff is a great QB. I'm not taking anything away from him. He is exceptional.

But if this becomes a shootout? The Lions just may not be in sufficient condition to hold up.

Tampa can run, ball control, clock kill, big play and has one of the most elite offensive lines in the game that will surely open up holes for Baker on the ground and give him time to air the ball out all night.

Cornerbacks D.J. Reed (hamstring), Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and Avonte Maddox (hamstring) are all out, as are safeties Brian Branch (suspended) and Kerby Joseph (knee). That's four of Detroit's five starting defensive backs (and Maddox is a top depth piece). That's the state of Detroit's secondary.

BUCS ML!

To the Bank we go!

BUCS ML!!!

TEXANS ML!!!

Explanation to follow. Going to post my writeup.

I know some of you will be like 

But let us not forget....

This is the NFL. The league of complete parody where sometimes things just don't make sense at all.

What shouldn't happen seems to happen too often!

I will post my writeup for my selections shortly.

Here comes the Catastrophe.

.....it is going to be an ugly Monday Night. These games are not so easily..."Yea Detroit is great and Seattle has Darnold and blah blag blah great defenses and Detroit is a beast at home and Seattle needs a win at home because they haven't had success at home."

No.

This is the NFL.

It makes no sense.

Writeup and reasoning to follow... this is already a long post. I don't want to put you to sleep.

I need time to explain my reasoning.

BUCS ML.

TEXANS ML.

The Monday Night Dogs come barking! Howling!

Well. My record has improved.

So before I begin this Monday Night Catastrophe, I'm going to recap since I began posting with last Monday Night's picks.

I've been in this game for a long time, but what made we want to post on this covers forum is that I have been an observer for many many years. Until now...

I have always enjoyed the insights of many handicappers on this forum. I think it is a wonderful thing to disagree, maybe even argue over picks because WE WANT to get this right. For ALL our benefit!

So let's begin.

Started 0-2 on the Bills ML (L) v. FALCONS  and Commanders ML (L) v. BEARS debacles. 

I'm looking to redeem myself this Monday Night with two plays.

Despite the rough start....

I have now recovered to...

A modest 5-5 Record on the season for posted plays. Some I didn't post, but I won't include those because they weren't posted.

PATRIOTS ML (W) 

RAMS ML. (W)

BRONCOS ML. (W)   (They really shouldn't have won that game. The Giants really blew it hard in more ways than one.)

KC. ML (W) 

BEARS. ML (W) 

CHARGERS ML (L) 

DOLPHINS ML (L) 

JETS (L)  

Before I begin my handicapping of the Monday Night Catastrophe ...

I just want to say that if the Dolphins and Jets win next week ... I am fuming over the state and condition of those teams because you never know when the bomb drops with these guys. Sooner or later, they are going to win a game or two that they shouldn't.

With that out of the way...

Let's begin....

In my final rant of this thread...

Before I put this atrocity of football to bed...

I will restate what I firmly believe.

Aaron Glenn, the coach of the Jets, is LOST on the sidelines. He is not an NFL calibre coach.

Pray for New York Jets fans. Those poor fans....

Honestly, he really does look like he has advanced dementia or alzheimer's disease. He stares into space looking lost. Every single time the camera panned and focused on him, he looked like he was dazed and confused.

Put the joints down bro. Stop smoking doobies and coach. Too late Now...

His two minute clock ... embarrassing. Shocking really.

He isn't an NFL coach.

The Jets have zero ability to run a two minute clock. That is a serious problem for a professional football team.

They don't know how to actually run a series.

These guys are getting fired.

While you are praying for Jets fans, Pray for Dolphins fans. These poor souls...

McPuppet in Miami and Coach Doobie in New York.

This was their last big hurrah today. It ended in a quiet thud.

Coach McPuppet should just leave the sidelines. 

Put a fork in him. He's done. 

Load these clowns up in a garbage truck and take them away.

If the Dolphins as an organization have any pride left in them, somebody has to hang. 

McPuppet is the go to. Too much rope already.

Coach Doobie in New York is probably being told right now he is toast.

That, or their upper management likes losing.

Jets and Dolphins. Man. 6 points each?

If the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets have any pride left as organizations...

There isn't a sports fan or any professional in the REALM of football anywhere that can take these teams seriously as they are going forward.

Time to fire some coaches.

That is just embarrassing.

6 points each? The pride of your team. Pride! Just to show some level of execution. Anything.

Nope. 

Really? 4 quarters of ball....

With a halftime...

....and all they could muster was 6 points each?

That's just embarrassing.

You don't even need a coach...

Just put a mannequin dummy in a sweater on the sidelines with a headset on.

if that's what they are delivering?

An empty lawn chair would suffice. Two broken empty lawn chairs with mannequins in them.

6 points.

Pathetic.

That doesn't belong in the National Football League. 

I've been watching NFL for over 25 years.

That is saddest sack of garbage I have witnessed since the Rob Johnson debacle in Buffalo and the Ralph Wilson Flutie-Gate turn the Doug Flutie Curse!

Unbelievable. The NFL.

I've seen suck. I've just never seen organizations that just enjoy torturing their fan base like the way the Jets and Dolphins have.

It wasn't like they lost to world class teams either.

Which really shows you what rock bottom they have hit...

Well. I don't have many words fit to describe what should happen next.

So I'll try my best.....

If the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets have any pride left as organizations...

Nobody can take these teams seriously as they are going forward.

Time to fire some coaches.

That is just embarrassing. 

6 points each?

Really? 4 quarters of ball and all they could muster was 6 points each?

That's just embarrassing. 

You don't even need a coach if that's what they are delivering.

An empty lawn chair would suffice.

@khmerandone

 I hear you man. That's it.

This was their last big hurrah today. It ended in a quiet thud.

Coach McPuppet should just leave the sidelines. 

Put a fork in him. He's done.

If the Dolphins as an organization have any pride left in them, somebody has to hang. 

McPuppet is the go to.

Aaron Glenn looks like advanced dementia or alzheimer's disease.

He stares into space looking lost.

His two minute clock ...

The Jets have zero ability to run a two minute clock. That is a serious problem for a professional football team.

They don't know how to actually run a series.

These guys are getting fired if they lose today.

That, or their upper management likes losing.

I'd fire the coach Mid-game.

McPuppet would be given his walking papers and exit gate 12 by now. 

To the car with this man. Drive away.

You can put one of the guys in the broadcasting booth in charge and they would probably know how to run an offense better.

Jets and Dolphins..

Jets coach... Aaron Glenn. Guy looks dumbfounded every single time the camera pans to him. Like he has no clue what is going on.

You know you have to win some garbage games to be successful in sports handicapping but man...

A surgeon is only as good as the tools he has to work with.

In the words of YODA "A hacksaw and baseball bat a nose job will it not"

Maybe nothing is good enough for these teams?

Maybe +7.5 against a college football team?

Lose and cover? Are they truly this bad?