johnanthony88

@spottie2935

 No prob just trying to share my thinking process.  Only one I'm not as confident about is bama.  There's a real chance Ty Simpson has CTE after the big hit to head against Aub in the 1H. He hasn't looked right since, looks scared, and processes information slower

this vintage of oregon is trash.  jmu could keep it 1 score game until the end

bama outgained ou 2 to 1 the first game they played.  they have looked like trash due to extensive amount of injuries the last 3 weeks. something like 10 starters.  they will heal and blowout oklahoma by 2 td

ACC is garbage. SMU is top 2 team in ACC and lost to baylor and tcu. Miami caught ND unprepared same as FSU caught bama. A&M is angry and getting healthy. Beck is a statue in the pocket and throws wild picks under pressure. A&M in a blowout.

@ATLSHARP

 Agree with this except I dont think Oregon or Miami can win 3 in a row vs top 5 teams

bama would prob lose to everyone except jmu and tulane

they should just go by BCS rankings and take the top 8 teams, none of this seeding gamesmanship. this would also make conference championship games relevant. You are #8 right now and playing a conference championship game? don't fucking get blown out. 

it also feels like big10 is overrated this year, probably due to power ratings taking into account the last 2 national champs were big10. I would say most likely a team from the SEC wins, but UGA is not their dominant self and their lack of depth will get exposed with their recent injuries. ND can be a scary team, i hope they get left out and forced to join a conference like everyone else

i like ttech and tx a&m. ttech has championship level defense but i'm wooried their offense will stall against a real defense. behren morton panics and makes bad decisions when rushed.

tx a&M they are in the same situation as ohio state last year. went into last week against a hated rival and shit the bed.  now has time to get angry and healthy.

they were getting alot of hype end of season and it was getting to their heads. they were counting their heisman, joe moore, belitnikoff. now they have nothing to show for it.

also against texas they were dominating the 1st half until reed got hurt, then they basically went conservative and lost their identity. when leveon returns, their power run will control the game and help protect their defense. they have by far the best oline in college football this year, can see a 2014 ohio state type run to the natty.

offense is average but you're paying for 2022 UGA level defense

there ya go, you can relax now

bachmeier looked injured they won't be able to compete. unless D/ST scores which is possible given the questionable throws morton is making

was leaning troy bc they held their own vs clemson.  however. they gave up 350 rushing yards to old dominion.   jmu might literally run up the score to like 52-10 with 500 rushing yards

@AJ86

 LMFAO I thought pat was still coaching NW

Welp it looks like coach knew he was leaving and DAGF about this game

From what I can tell from your posts, you are a sharp and analytical bettor. I too tend to bet unders and dogs almost exclusively. The first couple weeks of any sport I've found that favorites and overs tend to win. And about 25-50% of way through the season the analytics catch up and the public gets slaughtered chasing overvalued favorites.

One thing that really helped my handicapping is identifying early on if it's a public or sharp week. Some weeks it's all sharps sides and other weeks it's all public plays. Either play with the trend or get out the way when its one of those weeks where your betting style can't win.

But look on the bright side it's been a great season. I would encourage you to actually bet the bowl games.  Lots of public money.  Sharp sides tend to do very well during playoff season in most sports.  I've made most of my biggest bets and wins in the playoffs across all sports

@newmarket

 no you won't when they're down 33-7. Washington not gonna kick field goals and gonna be going for it on 4th at midfield soon

@newmarket

 no you won't when it's 33-7

yea def a bad beat the weather change at half changed evreything

real question is how will they do in the playoffs? their defense looks championship level. but morton always looks scared in the pocket and runs backwards and gives up huge sacks. Can their offense score enough to beat a top 5 team?

@newmarket

 No it was an outright loss as a 6pt favorite at ASU

with ASU loss last night they are locked for the champ game. Might take it easy like UGA did yesterday. Also this is the first time in a long time they are playing in very cold weather, could be a shock to the offense.  WVU has found its qb and now they can move the ball and eat clock. Overall best bet is under 52.5.  can see like a 31-9 type game