DrStrangelove

Can't help but think Klieman will make some adjustments in this bye week. Maybe tweak the offensive scheme to give Johnson more time back there.. I just don't think UCF hasn't played anybody yet. North Carolina wasn't a good test. They are awful this year. KSU has already been through the wars with Iowa St, Army and Arizona. They won't want to go down 0-2 in conference play. 

Miami, Ohio +2

Clemson -17

Louisville/BG over 51 (Warning!! I've been terrible with totals)

I think the AD had Gundy on a short leash anyway. It wouldn't surprise me if they gave him his walking papers by midseason..

Also leaning Miami. BOL Mac

Saturday plays so far:

 

Florida +7

Nevada +11

North Carolina +7

Liberty +9.5

Utah -3

Auburn +7

Western Michigan +14

Liberty +9.5

Utah -3

 

Not a lot to go on with either Utah or TTU, but the Utes have at least played two road games and covered both. Tech hasn't played anybody in Lubbock. They aren't normally a good cover team on the road with a short line. And they face the better coach in Whittingham. The Red Raiders might be something special this year with their high dollar offseason acquisitions. But they still need to prove it to me...

The line actually opened at 10 and was quickly bet down to 7. I thought maybe it would go under 7 so I took it. It wasn't the best of plays on my part since it's back up to 7.5. So I've now got a bad line and a bad coach to deal with...ha! LH, I can definitely see why 75% of the public likes Miami. But I still think it is two teams of very similar talent. Cristobal might be the little better coach, although I've never been a big fan of him either. My power number on the game is Miami -6. I think the game comes down to two things: Can Napier get his team up for two big games in a row, and can Florida cut down on their mistakes? The Gators outplayed LSU in Baton Rouge but couldn't cover because of 5 turnovers and an 87 yard td pass called back for holding. If they clean that up, I think they can stay with Miami. If not, then we could see a Miami blowout. It's either all going to come crumbling down for Napier on Saturday night, or they'll play good enough for him to keep his job or maybe even win outright. But I certainly can't fault you for liking Miami. I mean, to this point, what have they done wrong? Either way, good luck this week...

Yeah, this UCLA debacle has thrown a kink into my handicapping. I thought Utah looked impressive beating the Bruins. But now that we know who they are, not so impressive. Which kind of brings me back to square one. I've downgraded some of these teams. But I'm afraid to downgrade them too much this early, so I'll be sitting on the sidelines with some of these teams until I can get more data or they pass the eyeball test.

The 5th week is usually when I start seriously looking at the run games. And I have to consider the competition up to that point. Some of these teams have played nothing but pansies to pad their stats. Those are the ones I have to be careful of. A few of the "potential" running dogs this week are ASU, Miami Ohio, Troy, UNC, Nevada, AF, Hawaii. But keep in mind, some of these teams or some of their opponents have only played one FBS game. So not much to go on. 

Until the Va Tech game I didn't know for sure. I did have the under in that game thinking the run games would keep it under....not! The totals have killed me this season. I'll be looking closely at ODU in a couple weeks when they play Liberty. Especially if they are the dogs. BOL BA...

I'm waiting to see if that line moves to +7. Should be a great game....As for TTU/Utah, TTU is still kind of an unknown. I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that game, if anything....BOL this week!

7-13

 

Not the greatest start to the season. But it's early. The dust should start clearing on the 'running dogs' after around the 4th week when we get a few more stats under the belt. Hopefully things will pick up then. Got a few early ones for now.

 

Florida +7

Nevada +11

North Carolina +7

 

If Napier doesn't win or cover against Miami I think he's gone before midseason.

BOL today Mac 

Right now I have Duke as a "potential running dog." Should be a good game. I wish I was getting 3. But I don't think we'll see it...Good luck Bridge!

Adding:

Duke +2

BOL Mac 

Good luck fubah 

Florida +7

 

ODU/Virginia Tech under 51

Stanford +14.5

Pitt/WV under 56

YTD: 5-9

Last week was ugly!

 

Kansas St. ML