Battalion74

Trump (or anybody who thinks it) is not wrong.  You're not going to change the name because outside of North America it's called football, ie 7 billion people are not wrong.  The whole thing is funny to me because Trump must use all his energy to find ways to say things that puts him in the spot light.  As long as the attention is on himself, nothing else matters...

Not a division game between Rams and Panthers but I like the call, I'm siding with CAR this one as well.

To all you newbies who tail bets with phrases like 'bet the house', 'sell the farm'...  Do a quick google or AI search on betting splits and handles.  This was a good example of that.  Big disparity with number of bets vs where the money was at.  Would have quickly seen less than half of the tickets on a bunch of on-line books had the vast majority of money on them (in today's game, that was Louisville).  That is in a nutshell 'sharp' is money, a term you'll read about and hear all too often but may not understand what it is.

It's more complex than that but for a novice, always look where the money (handle) is and where the action (tickets) is.  It's not the whole story but it's a good piece of information.

GL with your plays.

Pro money is clearly on LOU to the tune of 90% on 40% of ticket sales.  That's a dangerous number to playing against...  Public dogs usually go home hungry.

Record: 11-11, -2U

(Last night 1-1, -1U).

Won a game last night by .5 pts, lost a game last night by .5 pts.  College ball 101...  Let's try to get back in the +

Cornell, -4.5 (5U). 

Colgate’s recents (respectable loss at Illinois, buzzer beater at Siena) inflate their rating a bit IMO given this is their 3rd road game in 6 days. Cornell is 13th in adjusted tempo, bombs away, and the 161 total tells me they’re easily live for 85+.  If Colgate gets forced into a track meet, they need a hot shooting night on tired legs just to hang around.  I see Colgate trying to drag things out but it will take a lot of discipline to do that and I kinda see that strategy working for only so long before it becomes a full on dust up which clearly favors Cornell.  I make this closer to Cornell -11. 

GL

Adding one more (I was hesitant earlier but decided to pull the trigger):

Merrimack -6.5 (1U)

GL.

Record 10-10, -1U

(3-2, +4U yesterday).

SC ST, +11.5 (2U)

My only game tonight, maybe a quick write up...

End of a brutal 7,000 mile 4 game road swing for Chattanooga, they've played some decent competition over the first 3 of this trip (all losses); this is a cupcake game, let's not sugar coat the opposition.  But my reasoning is that the motivation and travel legs may not be there for UTC to win by 12+, especially that this is SCST's home opener.  It's always a gamble when you're messing around with team in the bottom 10, nationally as SC ST is...

Play the number, not the team and I just think this is a unfavorable spot for UTC concerning the travel.  5 game home stand starts Saturday, maybe one eye looking at that?  Always a gamble when taking a true bottom D1 program but we'll take the points tonight.

GL. 

Record 7-8, -5U

Ugly yesterday (1-3, -8U)...

Drexel, -12.5 (3U)

Longwood, -17.5 (4U)

Radford, +9.5 (3U)

Pepperdine, -4.5 (4U)

Duke, -11.5 (4U)

Record 6-5, +3U

Charleston, -5.5 (4U)

Tennessee Tech, -3.5 (2U)

Lamar, -8.5 (1U)

UC Santa Barbara, -3.5 (3U)

Record 5-4, +3U

Today...

South Florida, -6.5 (1U)

Illinios St, -7.5 (1U)

Georgetown, ML (2U) 

Virginia, -20.5 (1U) 

Kent St, -11.5 (1U) 

Denver, -4.5 (1U) 

Loyola MD, -6.5 (3U) 

Longwood, -14.5 (1U) 

Mercyhurst, -7.5 (1U) 

Elon, -13.5 (2U) 

Jumping on one last game for the night...

LIU, -2.5 (1U) 

Record 5-4, +3U

Georgetown, ML (2U) 

Virginia, -20.5 (1U) 

Kent St, -11.5 (1U) 

Denver, -4.5 (1U) 

Loyola MD, -6.5 (3U) 

Longwood, -14.5 (1U) 

Mercyhurst, -7.5 (1U) 

Elon, -13.5 (2U)

Jumping on one last game for the night...

LIU, -2.5 (1U)

Record: 0-0 

Starting out fresh, took a couple of weeks to get my feet wet.  Today's card:

Georgetown, ML (2U)

Virginia, -20.5 (1U)

Kent St, -11.5 (1U)

Denver, -4.5 (1U)

Loyola MD, -6.5 (3U)

Longwood, -14.5 (1U)

Mercyhurst, -7.5 (1U)

Elon, -13.5 (2U)

@TheSquare

 total suggests a 22-19 type of game.  When it feels 'low', take the under.

Because Denver is the better team.  We don't need to worry about Surtain being out and Collins returning.  TBH, it's a non factor.  Payton is good enough a coach to offset that and the common bettor is simply going to look at this matchup and claim easy targets = TD's all afternoon.  In saying that, I think Kirk will have a big game on his return, not Collins (but that's for you prop junkies).

Going back to Denver, they still have a solid D and if you look at the teams Houston has beaten this year, it not a Denver type D they've won against.  Beat Titans, injury ravaged Ravens and 49ers.  Look at the Defenses they've lost to: Jags, Bucs, Sea Chickens, Rams.  Which of the two groups does Denver fit in to?  Now add the Payton factor and he'll plan a game to make Stroud's life miserable.

We're getting a gift from the books on this one.  Give me the superior coach and proven D against a team that has shown it can't handle the big boys.

DEN ML.

GL All! 

I'd trust his receiving yards more; he's only broken 79 yards once this year so far.  Can get an alt line receiving 60+ yds at +148.  I think that hits.

GL anyways.

Iowa St playing like a college frat boy in bed with a seasoned cougar (pun intended).  Fast start but can't keep up...  

@LineLord

 Chat GPT for ya...

@winoNV

 Will be hard since Ridley is ruled out today...