LuDawg's ECU @ Virginia Tech Saturday v2.0

Guys, if you don't like a pick, don't make a play on it. if you like the pick bet it. Why not put a single unit on ECU @+19.5 and then put another IF the line moves to +20 if you are not feeling the 19.5?

Also, which site are you guys getting the info on where the sharp/public is going? Don't make assumptions... "This early in the week most bets coming in are sharp money not public.". Even more importantly, does it matter that sharp/public money is pouring in? If line movement supports your research, great! If it doesn't, why not? Answer this question if you feel that an answer is warranted before you bet.

If you find a strong enough position, make a play, period. If you bet with or against line movements as your primary source of data, GL not going bust out there. Unless Pete Rose is betting for or against the Reds, I don't care where the money is going, j/k. 

Before you go with some of the other posters out there citing VT (-19.5) because they lost last week is like picking black on the roulette table because there have been four reds in a row. Look at it from this angle... ECU doesn't have to win the game, they just have to score enough to be within 19 points of VT at the end ofthe 4th qtr. Even citing a flawed ECU defense (again, people are claiming things that are their own opinion and not backed up with anything of substance), is VT's offense so good that they will score at least 20 points while having their defence shut out ECU's offense? For VT to win ATS, the will have to score 20 points at the VERY least. Hmmm. I'm on ECU. Thanks LuDawg!

Next time you run across an opinion thread, just ask yourself questions like these and then GO DO YOUR HOMEWORK. If someone posts "I disagree with you", "They're gonna lose", etc, ask YOUSELF on what grounds are they supporting their statement(s). This ain't fantasy football people... some people play for fun... the rest of us play to win. (BTW I do play ff, 1-0, lol)

 

 

listen to this post and learn from it...

You are the man Dawg.

LU, always respect your picks and I back you on this one as well. There is no way Vtech is in the right state of mind. Like you said players are fighting, coaches are doubting, bad feeling in Blacksburg and a W is all they are looking for. Giving a good offensive team +19.5 pts is absolutely fine with me. Love the Pirates to cover even if it is backdoor as well as the over hitting easy. Both defenses need some work, this game will be high scoring, no doubt in my mind. Best of luck brothers!

If Va Tech scored 30 on Boise (and Tulsa scored 49 on the road against ECU), Va Tech will score 50 plus on ECU. But whos to says ECU doesnt score 40? Not me. But if Va Techs defense does comes to play (which could very easily happen), if some of those younger players finally "get it" (happens all the time)... then the talent difference will be far too much for ECU to overcome and Va Tech could name there score. Gun to my head I say ECU plus the points, but too many things COULD happen in this game. Better to sit it out, much better bets on the board.

Im a VT grad and huge fan and I'll roll with you on this one. Over the past 6 years I've followed VT closely and their Offensive Coordinator Brian Stinespring is absolutely horrendous. The offense has the most talent at the skill positions this year than I've ever seen, but the O-line truly sucks and so does the play caller. And you are also right in the fact that VT's defense isn't what it used to be. They will get better on D by the end of the year cuz Bud Foster is the man, but there is no way the the Hokies heads are right for this game. We just lost to F'in JMU! I'll take the points here too. Last year was a close game and so was the year before. Not scared to bet against the Hokies cuz they could probably lose this game too.

i just wanted to drop by and show my appreciation for your threads. i've been pretty busy this week, so i wasn't able to follow too closely, but i saw what was going on in your previous thread. i'm just glad you chose to stick around.

thanks lu, and of course, good luck

Thanks for the pick LuDawg,

This spread is a trip, most be some big money coming in on VTech.  I think we all know how this usually turns out. I'll take my chances with a guy that knows ECU football.

Great Write up and PICK!

I with ya bud!

GL with your pick but I'm on VT large.

To me college football wagering is one part match ups and two parts emotion. I figure over the long run setting a number better then the book based on match ups is impossible. So I focus on emotions and intangibles, the psychology of the game if you will.

This is what I know.

VT played a Monday night game barely losing to Boise. It was a devastating loss and huge game. Players tend not to respond well to that situation. It probably took them at least until Wednesday to let go of the mental replays if not longer. Odds are they didn't even think they needed to show up vs JM.

James Madison has a great relationship with VT. They allow Madison to tape scrimmages. They share film. JM is like VT's little brother. Why? Why not. Beemers a good guy and he want's to help his fellow coach. He provided JM with so much over the years that Madison's HC joked, "I know every play they're going to run. I know the signals. But it sure as heck didn't matter the last few years."

So here is a VT as disinterested as possible vs a JM team with several more days to prepare, inside knowledge, a potential NC threat, and salivating to play.

The US did beat Russia didn't they?

The point is VT walked into the perfect storm.

Now every talking head has called them out for a week. A situation that usually drives a team into a frenzy of emotion. It's make or break time. VT will not let off the gas Saturday. ECU has played them well over the years but it was always ECU who was trying to make the statement not VT, and for as young as VT is on D, ECU is just awful on that side.

VT in a route 48-17

 

"The point is VT walked into the perfect storm."

they sure have...

ECU +19.5

with ya Lu!

anyone taking a stab at East Carolina ml +700?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VvgspV2fcI

2ToN... what does your comment mean? I think you misunderstood or just didn't get what I was saying but my point was for people to not waste space (like with a large quote). Go back and re-read the thread and it will make sense to you.

Nice work Lu

I will, just for the heck of it...prob .25 on it....why not!  Free money from last weeks win of 10 UNITS!

I followed his second play for 10 UNITS , so this week, I will be following the 2 UNIT play and a little on the over.  This line is kinda fishy, so I am gonna lay off a little....I think

I think they will score at will, but 19 points is a lot to give an offense that seems to be able to move the ball at will also.

VT D isnt the same shut down D it once was, so at least I can see a back door cover.

I think the safest play here is the OVER, but I am leaning ECU here and OVER

ECU +19.5   

This is getting really Funny

If Lu told the Sheep that in order for ECU to cover they needed to Drink Piss all week .....

80% of these Sheep would be Peeing in their 5th Glass already .....

 

Hope East carolina Wins Outright

    It is pretty comical

on the other side...but good to see covers drinking this jim jones kool aid...

easily the biggest tool on this website Bieber did you get a chance to swipe your parents credit card in order to place a wager this weekend??? Be honest...