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LuDawg's ECU @ Virginia Tech Saturday v2.0

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LasVegasLord

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Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 16840

Posted: Sep. 16, 2010 - 8:13 PM ET #126

gl LuDawg

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spearing24

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Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 1066

Posted: Sep. 16, 2010 - 8:26 PM ET #127

BOL to everybody. Will wait until gameday to see if this thing goes to +21 or higher.

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starwink

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2005

Posts: 24201

Posted: Sep. 16, 2010 - 8:52 PM ET #128

Quote Originally Posted by LuDawg:

It was already posted on the penalty box and quite frankly, I don't mind that it's posted here. So long as the people who have been friends to me (for the most part) got it first. And they did. Thanks to those guys (and girls). Here's my best shot at this weekend.

37-6-1

Alright, guys. Thanks for coming along for the ride. It's going to be a fun one, and as promised, here's your pick. Just deposit 25 dollars into my paypal account and I'll send it....I'M EFFIN' KIDDING. No, the Lu does not want your money, just your loyalty. That's it. Moving on...

I've been looking this game over for the past few days. It's been quite a challenge for me personally. Obviously, with the Hokies coming off the loss to JMU Saturday night was a real monkey wrench in trying to cap this game properly. But the more I've looked at the tape from the BSU game and the replay of the JMU game on ESPNU the other night, one thing has become very clear to me. The Hokie defense you see out there isn't the Hokie defense of ole'. Those defensive players are lost. They're young, they're confused, they're running in opposite directions, and unfortunately for them, they're about to face an offense that likes to get in space and cause confusion in the secondary.

The Virginia Tech Hokies we've all come to know and respect are not on the field this year in Blacksburg. In the past, the Hokie teams who have been successful have been reliant on superior special teams who could flip the field and a defense who could keep the opposing teams offense from marching down the field. This typically put their mundane offense in a great position to be successful. They'd run behind a stable of backs and pass enough to mix it up. But VT was never a team that lit up the scoreboard. In fact, the Hokies are only averaging 18.3 points per game the last 3 times out against ECU. That's not a statistic that's an anomaly. Virginia Tech ranked inside the top 3 in points allowed by the defense for several consecutive years. The offense didn't have to do much.

The Hokie's just got bitten by their own strategy. There's no longer a defense to bail this offense out and all of the sudden, the offense is being asked to outscore other teams. That's a fundamental problem with this group. They're not designed to work that way. Not only that, the offensive line for the Hokies is just not very good and their offensive coordinator is about to be burned at the stake by the maroon and burnt orange faithful.

Now let's not get carried away. The Pirates are brutal on defense as well. They've got problems, but fortunately for the Purple and Gold, they have an offense that's up to the task and can bail out the defense when they need to. When this ECU team needs to score, they do it. We saw that in week one against Tulsa as the offense continually answered the bell against the Golden Hurricane. We saw that against Memphis when ECU needed to put in some separation at the second half. When they play with a sense of urgency, they're dangerous. The Pirates have put up 100 points in two games. It took the prior coaching regime over 5 games to get to the 100 total point mark. The offense for the Pirates is clicking and is gaining more and more confidence. The running backs are superb with Jonathan Williams averaging over 6 yards per clip.

Head coach Ruffin McNeil said yesterday that the Pirates had a very sharp Sunday practice and that the team is licking their chops at this opportunity to head into Blacksburg and play in that environment. They would've been licking their chops even if VT was 2-0, in my opinion. The coaching staff has been pumping in crowd noise all week to simulate the noise environment they'll get inside of Lane Stadium. It's been really loud for a little while each night in that neighborhood as they go into silent count/cadence practice. The kids are fired up and BELIEVE they can win this football game. That might be the biggest reason for taking ECU. They're mentally prepared to get after it. The Hokies on the other hand don't know who they are yet.

Reports out of Blacksburg are that coaches are arguing with players, players are arguing with coaches, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has had several heated discussions not only with his center who he can't seem to get on the same page with, but also the offensive coordinator for his play calling. The fans are about to throw in the towel. It's just an extremely frail and fragile situation up in the Virginia mountains.

Now look, the game is difficult to cap because of the JMU game...and a little bit because of the BSU game. I think the Hokie's aren't as bad as the loss to JMU, but they're not nearly as good as their miracle come back against Boise State in D.C. in which they needed 3 turnovers to make it a game late. There also not 19.5 points better than this version of the Pirates. They simply don't have the pop to get that far out in front, if they can get out in front at all. ECU's offensive line is strong and deep and will give Dom Davis (who is leading the country in touchdowns) plenty of time to pick apart the Hokie D...especially with the loss of VT's best defensive lineman Kwamaine Battle.

I'm not going to over think it any more. I've done my due diligence. I've watched the games. I've seen the confusion on the VT defensive side of the ball...confusion that was never there with the winningest VT programs of the past. Their offense isn't as good as ECU's. I have to trust my instincts and my eyeballs. The new Hokie's are in trouble on Saturday.

I'm making my call.

ECU +19.5 for 2 units. You might also consider the over, but I don't play totals.

Best of luck, gentlemen. Let's get the money.

Lu

Do I need to join your friend's list to receive future picks?