I worked at WWTS in Antigua years ago as a odds adjuster, I have a lot of respect for the people who put out the lines, its why moving the lines at a book is tricky, your basing it on money coming in, but you also have to respect the line that came out, lines are based on public perception and are there to try and get even money on both sides, and books hate when scores come out to exactly where the lines were, teasers kill them on that because all teasers win just about , 6 pt teasers all win
ok adding a couple of plays 9-2 last 11 in the NFL, was 6-5 yesterday but made money on teasers and parlays, pissed that my early plays did not cover when they could have Indiana and BYU, but I'll live with it, already took Miami Fl -4.5 yesterday and today its 6.5 so so far got the better line , fla st giving up 46 at Virginia tells me Miami will score,
ok today adding Tampa Bay +4 -120 why take 3.5 when you can get 4 for 10.00 makes no sense to me , also 1 prop, if ya watch Tampa you know Mayfield loves to throw to Bucky Irving, his total receptions today is 3.5 now it seems he should get 5+ but a little worried that today its only -105 when last week he was 3.5 -160 and he had 4 pretty early I think
then I am taking Carolina today, I posted I liked them yesterday but at hardrock they were +5 -105 +5.5 -110 +6 -115 +6.5-120 so of course I am grabbing 6.5 7 is -140 I'll just take 6.5 I think they cover 5.5 also , just something about them today that I like, just think this will be close
tampa +4 -120
B Irving over 3.5 rec's -105
Car +6.5 -120
I love action 16-13-1 in NFL this year more into college, but I am a action player , but its my money and its never good to bet a lot of games unless you can stay ahead
gl 151
A lot of people think the whole point of a sportsbook is to balance the action. The perception is that the house wants the exact same amount of money bet on both sides of a spread so they can just pocket the juice and never sweat a game. That’s sort of true for the neighborhood bookie who doesn’t have a lot of cash to float — he really can’t afford too much exposure to one game. His job is basically like a broker, matching buyers and sellers, not actually taking a position.
But when you’re talking about the big shops with plenty of money behind them? Different story. They don’t need a perfect 50/50 split. They just need enough money coming in on both sides.
Let’s say bettors put up $11,000 to win $10,000 on the favorite
Meanwhile, only $5,500 to win $5,000 comes in on the dog
If the underdog wins:
The book keeps the $11k from losing favorite bets
They pay out $5k to the dog bettors
That’s a $6,000 profit.
If the favorite wins:
The book keeps the $5,500 from the losing dog bets
They owe $10k to the favorite backers
That’s a $4,500 loss.
So basically, the house is risking $4,500 to win $6,000. They only need to “win” about 43% of the time to break even. Compare that to you and me, laying $110 to win $100 — the book is really only laying about $75 to win $100 (somebody check that math, please)
Put another way: if there’s twice as much money on one side as the other, the sportsbook is sitting on +133 odds no matter what. For us to clear $6,000, we’d have to risk $6,600. The house? They only put $4,500 at risk. That’s why the big books don’t panic if the action leans heavy one way — the math is still in their favor
Lastly, dumb bettors after winning, will bet it all back, so sooner or later they're broke because of poor money management
I play all 5 pt system plays
and at Hardrock they have Tennessee at +7.5-115 +8-120 +8.5 -120 +9 -125 so guess what I played
Tennessee +9 -125 1 unit 5 pt system play they are 2-1 so far which is right on schedule 3 this week Jets, Jax and Tenn I know Jets and Jax have dropped but just pay attention to the openers to see if they cover they should still cover I need to get right on the lines Sunday night
@barneybeans
I agree my point was when the score lands right on the line , and its even worse for books when it happens on a Thursday or Monday night game just 1 game and all teasers win
also your point about books my point was what the opening line is meant to do not what happens after they are just trying to get even action it does not always happen, but I do respect their lines its why sports books pay so much to get lines after that its up to book manager to move them to try and not get hurt,
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