I guess the Redskins didn't really regress, they did play sloppy, but you thinking that the Giants would be any good with Wilson, after Sean Payton couldn't wait to get rid of him and then the Steelers doing the same, I couldn't have put my money on the g men yesterday. Good luck the rest of the year.
2-5 ATS, lost 3.6 units
Brutal loss with Bears.
Vikings with 2 minutes to go before half had 51 total yards. 35 yards rushing and 16 yards passing . JJ was 1.8 yds per pass to 6.6 for Bears.
It appeared JJ was not ready for the big stage. But he did finish ahead of Bears by games end.
This is the worst record for the regression method.
TOP 3 Bigfest Performers week 1.
Colts, Jags, Packers
Very likely one of these 3 or 2 of the 3 will be amoung the bigger surprise stories this season.
The best bets are teams off 10 win or better season that'd be the Packers off an 11 win season.
These teams do well ATS from week 2 through the end of the season. And they win division at a high rate.
GL Claw. Could go either way with this pick.
Judging on last week alone, you could argue that the Packers are the ones due for regression.
Washington won and covered, but could barely did anything outside of the first drive for a long time. They won sloppy, and the defense kept them in the game, or Giants ineptness on offense did. This was against a team that went 3-14 last season.
The Packers on the other hand were in full control basically from the opening drive on. The offense looked amazing the first couple of drives, and the defense was getting stops and turnovers. They let off the gas in the second half because they didn't need to do any more.
They would have won 27-6 if not for the last drive in garbage time. This was against a team that went 15-2 last season.
Just pointing that out.
That's the problem with systems.
Appreciate your perspective ...................
Not really. If the system wins over time you can't expect any method to never have a bad week, that is not realistic.
I will agree and I have been down this road before is that any system can turn at any time any time and not work anymore.
So at what point do you stop using it ?
Also systems can have regression and then bounce back. This can be seen by the 5 years records of this method.
A great 5 years then a not so great 5 years but still a winning 5 years.
Good point ..............
The regression methods I use like bounce factor takes minimum of 3 games to apply the method.
I never call for regression off 1 big win. The better teams can string together a few of those.
Good point about Russ. I don't like backing him either but I was playing the method ..........
What is typical is if a big regression team does not regress game 1 they will game 2 and boy did they regress. 404 yds to 250 for Wash.
PR II had Browns should of won by 1.38 pts. In other words a very close game ..........
Appreciate your perspective .............
But the majority can and often does go on great runs. If The majority wins 48.5 % you would loss fading them because of the juice.
The majority hangs close to 50% many seasons. I don't think it is the golden goose others do.
The time to fade the majority if off big runs or off exceptional large line movements.
I will almost always fade and large line movement regardless whether it comes from pro's or Joe's.
1-0 ATS, won 1 unit
Season--- 3-5, lost 2.6 units
Packers laid a beatdown on Wash. But Wash did hang in and almost came back to get the cover.
404 yards to 250.
8.4 ave per pass to 3.9 , are u serious 3.9 per pass ?
Packers won Passer Rating by 28 pts.
PR II had Packers should of won by 17.4 pts.
About the same for PR I.
The 27-10 score before Wash made their final score was closer to the actual way the game was played.
Keep riding this Packers team.
I may have a couple plays on Sunday maybe half unit plays.
Big regression teams that don't regress week 1 do regress week 2 many times.
Wash a classic example but that game played perfectly in with backing our best play off top 3 largest performers werk 1 .
Vikings being 9-1 in close wins did not regress I'd back Falcons at the +4.5.
Interesting that Vikings did win another close win but without Darnold on the team. Darnold also won another close 1 score game. Crazy coincidence.
NFL.com has Daniels stats vs GB as 200 PY/42 ATT = 4.76 YPPA.
Likely not including sacks. That would be for QB Passer Rating which does not include sacks.
With sacks included it's 3.9.
I like sacks included as some QB's can avoid sacks while others can't.
Possible that is schemes, throwing deep more. Could be off line but there is evidence that some QB's are better at fewer sacks then others. Reading defense quicker getting into the 2cd and 3rd options faster.
Forgot to mention, Wash being 20 of 23 on 4th down attempts last season. That is only 3 failed atts all year.
After 2 weeks they are 2 of 5. 3 failed attempts after just 2 weeks.
VS Packers they were 1 of 3. That very well contributed some to being down 27-10.
That is similar to 2 extra TO's.
They are not getting that same kind of 4th down luck this season. Very possible they fail 3 times in 1 game this season.
When Brady set the record with only 4 INTS in a season he did have 4 in 1 game the next year.
That is how regression works and what regression looks like. We are seeing it already.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
