REGRESSION PLAYS WEEK 1...........................2025

@spottie2935

 Just don't touch the game.

I’m so curious about this game I have the Saints on my weekly big ticket.  If I see an opportunity in game then I get involved further but I have to see a live opportunity.  Big tickets need more teams and this is an opportunity.  Good defensive teams might make a difference but it’s not like the Saints score a lot anyways.  This cover will be because the Cardinals have struggled in road games.  We’ll see if this game is bad Arizona on the road, or do they just abuse a bad Saints team.  

Claw, I enjoy your threads tremendously. I'm gonna throw out a couple of other regression possibilities. 

TITANS - Defensively, only the Eagles gave up fewer yards than the 5291 yards Tennessee gave up, and yet only Carolina and Dallas gave up more points than Tenny's 460! Obviously the Titans -16 turnover differential played a significant role, but my point is while they were improved statistically last season from 2023, they stunk it up record wise both SU and ATS! A bounce back year COULD be in store, but I won't be backing them in Week One, not with a rookie QB on the road against a top defense.

BILLS - They didn't lose the turnover battle in a single game all season, including the playoffs and finished the year with a +26 differential! That number alone screams regression! In Week One they face the Ravens, who in my mind have been the best team in the league the past couple of seasons. The line is Buffalo -1'. In last year's playoff matchup it was Baltimore -1'. The three point swing is significant when you take into account that regular season Lamar Jackson is much better than playoffs Lamar Jackson. Ravens look like a solid play in Week One.

Totally agree with you on Buffalo. Last year was the year they had a chance to reach the Super Bowl and blew it. 

Yep, the Buffalo Bills are the Eleanor Rigbys of the NFL. They pick up the rice at a church where a wedding has been. 

Absolutely …100%  Daniels and the Commies have a lot of proving to do… sophomore slump city. Finally a voice of reason…. Best of luck Claw  

like where your heads at to start the season, goodluck brody 

@theclaw

 Agree with others, your posts are an absolute must read!

A couple of small enhancements to what you posted. In that Phil-Wash game in DC, QB Hurts was lost to injury early,  perhaps on the 1st drive of the game.

Also, the Giants didn't have their kicker in that Week 2 game, the final result would likely have been different.  

BOL to you this upcoming season! 

@Trooper64

 Good info!   way to keep track of the games.  I like your style a lot! 

"1-8 close games last year, those teams tend do to well in week 1 when people are judging them based on poor play last season."

I don't track close games from the previous season so what are results of teams like the Giants in week one the following season over the last 10 years?

I always focus on who will win the game and not worry about the spread. SU winners in week one have covered the number 83% of the time over the last 10 years. And I would be interested in this youtube video you previously mentioned about Washington regressing this season.

  And that OL, the Terry distractions…the defenses preparing for Daniels all offseason. Tough schedule, and an injury liability in this league full of defensive monsters… Last season was the ceiling and what a great season it was! But to come close to the NFC Championship again would blow my mind…ive been wrong many times before   Cowboys and Giants will have something to say in the divisional matchups.. and maybe not too far apart from the Commandos by season end. 

Thank you, same to you ........ .......

Yes I'd think Titans will regress. But I don't have enough info for a play week 1.

Interesting on the Bills, I didn't know that. I did talk a few times last year how Allen got his TO's down but that is crazy they never lost the TO battle last year.

I don't see how they duplicate that, virtually impossible.

I remember when Brady set the record I believe was 4 INT's then the next year he had 4 in 1 game.

I generally post records of each indictator when I post all the plays. May be the week before game 1...................

Action network but not sure the name. Was guys I don't follow often but once in awhile if the title interests me. Could be something  about Wash in the title ..................

Exactly ..................

Very interesting info on KC. Remember some years ago I talked about if you want to know what Mahomes will do just look at Brady.

And I have talked about this from time to time. I think I talked about this goung into the playoffs and/or SB last year if I remember  correctly. 

I was definitely  aware of it so I'm  pretty sure I did mention it.

After Brady won his 3rd SB he lost in his next SB which was the the Giants as -12 favorite.

After Mahomes won his 3rd SB he lost in his next SB which was last year to Eagles.

What happened to Brady after that SB loss ?

Took him 4 seasons to get back and 7 seasons to win another SB.

To consistently get the breaks in all those games and especially  the close wins is not possible to sustain.  Brady could not do it I doubt Mahomes will either.

Now, the very next year Brady was injuried and knocked out for the season.

Oh boy could Mahomes meet the same fate ? It'd be ridiculously crazy if he did.

So basically we could say Brady didn't make the SB for 3 seasons he played and didn't  win SB for 6 seasons he played.

Just a very interesting  comparison of both players. We'll  see how this comparison  works out.

Another piece of info that suggests KC regresses.

I haven't tracked NFL as closely as I used to, but not sure if regression works this early. 

From what I can remember, the books usually give the bad teams the benefit of the doubt in the beginning of the season. Lines are reasonable. After they get 3-4 weeks of data in is when they adjust. 

Interested to see how you do here. 

  BOL this season Claw… 

Appreciate your opinion...............

I've used this method for years and it rarely has finished with a losing record. I have the records but I don't always update every year so I can get behind a number of years.

But the method remains not producing losing years very often. But does go .500 at times.

If I have time I generally post records the final week leading up to week 1 when I get all plays in.

Mostly 6 plays every year with occasional 7 or 8 if 2 teams tie.

This year I have 7 plays . Lines are moving in my favor so I'll sit-tight for now.

Thanks .............

Same to you .............

Wash improved with 8 more wins last year.

So how do these teams making big 1 year improvements do the next year ?

I went back to 2009 season but am missing 3 years. Maybe I didn't  run those years or I could have put the info somewhere else being in a hurry.

But I have 13 seasons with 12 teams improved by 7 games or more.

Fasten your seat belts people the ride is ready to begin ............

2019... 9ers won 9 more games and made the SB. They won 7 fewer games the next year.

2017 Jags, remember  them ? Improved by 7 games, beat Steelers in division  round and lost on road to Pats in conf finals i think score was 24-20 off my memory as +7 dog.

Won 5 fewer games next year.

2010 Bucs improved 7 games winning 6 fewer games next year.

2018 Bears, remember  them. They were no. 1 in some PR's including mine only to lose in WC game if I remember  correctly. 

They improved 7 games only to regress next season by 4 fewer wins.

2016 Boys improved by 9 games but sadly went backwards by 4 fewer wins next year.

2008 Dolphins improved a whopping 10 games only to regress by 4 games the next year.

2012 Vikes improved by 7 games but won 4.5 fewer games the next year.

The evidence is starting to mount, you don't want to back these teams off big improvements  as though they will continue to improve. 

In fact not 1 team improved in wins the next year, not-a-one.

1 team did remain the same record. 2012 Colts with Andrew Luck rookie year improved by 9 wins but only 11 wins on the year so not a high win total.

Now get this, the next year the same 11 wins. 2 years later the same 11 wins. 3 years later only 8 wins 

Not sure if that was an injury year for Luck. I didn't think to look at that. But will.

Now 11 wins is not overly high total as most SB winners get to 12 wins so Colts although they made a big improvement never got to a SB winning record level in the next 3 years.

There was 1 team regressed by 1 fewer win, 2 teams by 1.5 fewer wins and 1 team 2 fewer wins.

But of the 12 teams 7 did win 4 or more fewer wins the year following a 7 game or better improvement.

It is more likely to regress a decent amount of games then the team will improve.

Texans with Stroud in 2023 did improve by 6.5 games, not quite getting to 7. They improved to 10 wins and had the same 10 wins the next season.

But their win total is not high at all. And they were clearly not as good in 2024 as they were in 2023 even though they had the same record. As Stroud regressed in 2024.

I have the list of teams improving by 5.5, 6 and 6.5 wins but haven't looked up the results as of yet.