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NFL WEEK 16 ....................2025

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Legend
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Posted: #26

Claw,

Thank You for your terrific analysis.peace_5

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: My Other System ............. 12-7 ATS with Eagles win   Giants +3 (-125) over Vikings --- .63 units Colts +6 (-120) over 9ers --- .6 units   Giants also a public switch game. As public backed Giants last week VS Wash and after losing jumps ship this week and fades the Giants. These are good spots to back a Team.   Colts the best team in the league at home in Pts per Plays Margin. Danny Dimes was the guy made this Colts offense go but they do seem to be far better at home in a game they really need. Rivers had another week of prep, he played not bad with like a 97 QBPasser Rating during the game but did fall off later and finished ok for an old man hasn't played in 5 years. Add in the fact that the 49ers don't have a pass rush since losing their best defensive players, and they're last four wins have come against the injury riddled Cardinals, the hit and miss Panthers, the hapless Browns and the even more hapless Titans.

 

Great info, thanks for posting .........peace_5

 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

Poor coaching will kill more spreads then most metrics...Matt LeFluer, Sean McDermott and Josh MCDaniels should have their own section for that...numbers don't explain motivation, preparation..Johnson is 100 times a better coach tha LeFluer...as more close wins pile up, is that an accident?

 

Yes luck based. It has been proven over and over again over history.

Close 1 score games are not repeatable long term...............peace_5

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

Westgate top 5...YTD 33-41 (favorites 22-24, dogs 10-19) DET 265  -6.5BAL 222  -2.5CHI 220    1DEN 183  -3LAC 178   2.5 Bears won last night as a dog, so 11-19.

 

Good stuff. Big difference  is being a dog , favorites are almost 50%.

I saw on you tube Chargers are a public play as well and a dog here ..............peace_5

 
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Posted: #30

Looking at zona VS Falcons, according to football reference SOS, Zona is +4, 2cd toughest schedule in the league next to Titans +4.1.

Falcons are 0, not surprising since Zona plays in best division with 2 strong teams and another very good team and Falcons play in one of weakest divisions.

Zona does have the worst margin of victory of the 2 teams  but when we factor in SOS Zona comes out the better team and should be favored at home.

Unless there are some injuries with key players that could explain Zona being a 3 pt dog at home.

I didn't look into  that. Was only looking at the line being kind of silly to me anyway.

 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:

Claw, Thank You for your terrific analysis.

 

Appreciate the kind words...............peace_5

 
 
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Posted: #32

an_cheers

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