NFL WEEK 16 ....................2025

A little slow this week going over all the games

Broncos -3 (-125) over Jags --- 1.25 units

Raiders +14.5 (-112) over Texans --- .56 units

Jets +6.5 over Saints --- .55 units

Jags winning last week in a BF fade spot, requalify as a BF fade and they are a fade on my other system as well.

Jags Deep into regression, I don't really like backing the Broncos though off 11 SU wins. On you tube I saw teams off 11 SU wins are 14-26 ATS.

Another thing is Jags are one of the best teams at home in Pts per Plays Margin and they have one of the largest differences between home and road, actually they get out-played on the road and here deep in regression and on the road play has to be Broncos or Pass.

I can make a case to back Jets on my new BF II, they don't fit perfectly but with Tyler Shough being a big favorite for the first time and Jets being slightly  better then Saints with Pts per Plays margin play is Jets or pass.

Texans were a near BF fade last week which we lost on that play but now in the 2cd game with Raiders being a near BF play on team and off a big blowout loss while according to PR II that loss was the largest beat-down of the season.

Raiders should of lost by 50.4 pts. That puts then on a PR II BF play on team. Just to many indicators pointing to the Raiders in this game.

Eagles -7 (-114) over Wash --- .57 units

Wash a fade team on my other system.

Eagles off a big blowout win but only 1-3 past 4 games. I would not fade teams off 1 blowout loss or win.

My other system now 11-7 ATS 61% on the season thus far. Now on a 5-1 ATS run coming off the first back-to-back losing weeks ATS this season.

4 picks this week , also a fade on Jags with 2 other plays I'll  make later after waiting out the lines.

We're largely on the same page this week, good luck.

TC, I am with you on LV.  Good luck this week.

This query is super simple:

streak = 11

SU:  11-10-1 (0.3,52.4%)

ATS:  6-16 (-5.6,27.3%)  The Sports Database only goes back to the 1989 season; that why the sample size is smaller.  DEN does look scary on an 11-game winning streak, and an average ATS margin of -5.6 points is substantial.

JAX-DEN is a non-division game and that make DEN an even shakier wager:

streak = 11 and NDIV

SU:  5-6-1 (-3.4,45.5%)

ATS:  1-11 (-8.4,8.3%) Yikes! 

This query is closer to 50/50 ATS:

HF and line > -5.2 and streak > 9.5

SU:  7-3 (5.3,70.0%)

ATS:  5-4-1 (2.4,55.6%)

Home favorites of 1 to 5 points on winning streaks of at least 10 games are 5-4-1 ATS.

Great call on Philly 

One in the bag.  Congratulations.

Cool ............

Nice. ......

Nice work dog, especially the non-division. Yea yikkers 1-11ATS..............

That's a little better .............

Thank you .............

Thanks .............

My Other System ............. 12-7 ATS with Eagles win

Giants +3 (-125) over Vikings --- .63 units

Colts +6 (-120) over 9ers --- .6 units

Giants also a public switch game. As public backed Giants last week VS Wash and after losing jumps ship this week and fades the Giants. These are good spots to back a Team.

Colts the best team in the league at home in Pts per Plays Margin. Danny Dimes was the guy made this Colts offense go but they do seem to be far better at home in a game they really need.

Rivers had another week of prep, he played not bad with like a 97 QBPasser Rating during the game but did fall off later and finished ok for an old man hasn't played in 5 years.

Well the Bears did it again, another sheet show luck job. That is 6 games this season decided in the last 2 minutes of the game.

That is the most since 1970 merger. Does that sound repeatable ??? .........

Packers were outplaying them pretty good, Bears did play better later but once again it was TO's that separated the Bears as the only stat Bears won that was meaningful.

And that was not caused by the Bears just a fumbled snap on a 4th and 1 for Pack.

And then if that is not enough they recover onside kick which is so low % now a days. Unreal stuff by these pesky Bears.

Caleb 99 QBPR to Willis spectacular 148 and combined with Love 109 For Pack.

Pts per Plays Margin .....

Lions 2cd best team at home .226 to Steelers .093 on the road.

Lions rank 4th .105 to Steelers 6th .086.

Steelers not bad at 6th but Lions at home very strong.

Would have to lean Lions.

Another game I'd like is Zona at home getting +3 VS Falcons.

Falcons a -3 favorite on the road, seems ridiculous. 

Zona plays in the best division and tends to get beat up by the better teams but they do well VS teams like the Falcons and as a home dog value has to be on Zona.

Add in the fact that the 49ers don't have a pass rush since losing their best defensive players, and they're last four wins have come against the injury riddled Cardinals, the hit and miss Panthers, the hapless Browns and the even more hapless Titans.

Poor coaching will kill more spreads then most metrics...Matt LeFluer, Sean McDermott and Josh MCDaniels should have their own section for that...numbers don't explain motivation, preparation..Johnson is 100 times a better coach tha LeFluer...as more close wins pile up, is that an accident? 

Westgate top 5...YTD 33-41 (favorites 22-24, dogs 10-19)

DET 265  -6.5
BAL 222  -2.5
CHI 220    1
DEN 183  -3
LAC 178   2.5

Bears won last night as a dog, so 11-19.