Week 5 YTD… 71-68 ATS

Next week I will have 2 records:

1.)A running season total 

2.) A record starting this week until week 12 when I close my books for the year. 

I usually do better to this point but I made a lot of errors thinking I had a better grasp of the lines.  I do in a lot of cases but this season I have missed more than I thought. 

so far some bad breaks and good fortunes do I really don’t complain.  

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My mission, and where I feel like I have most success is the garbage games.  So much volatility in play each week.  Do you hear me S.Alabama and Coastal?  How about you Cal and San Diego St. ?  western Michigan vs Toledo? These are not the cream of the crop. 

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week 5 full of smelly fish I mean   So let’s eat.  

Virginia +7.  Ill Post this now but have a feeling it’s not going down. I also have a feeling I won’t need all +7.  Honestly how do we all evaluate FSU at this moment?   Do we all think they have completely flipped the ship around because of a Win vs.Bama as +13 dogs?  They beat and demolished 2 “high school” teams after Bama so their #8 ranking is absurd.  Completely volatile game and I love that. There is no consistency set after what FSU put on the table last season.  

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Georgia-3

One of the worst top 25 cover teams in recent history. This line is a joke.  I support Alt lines of -7,-10,-14 on this game.  I have ALA in regression and it should be shown again here. The Georgia is ill inflate after this big win.

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Baylor is not getting great lines and the prices are inflated.  Nobody in their right mind is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for Ok St.  but low sell high !

Okla St+20.5 but no bet until 21.5 is the target #.  if it does hit 21.5 that will be my line that I count on here.  If it doesn’t I will adjust the line to the current available or take this down and not recommend this side. I am assuming most people either bet Baylor or pass on this dog). Besides who wants to tail this dog, He is not friendly and at this moment he is Emaciated. 

Utah St. +23 is the best available at the moment.  I’ll wait it out as long as I get +21 I’m content. 

I bet against Vandy last week assuming if they demolished again the present line would be a “present” .  Back to back games laying -21 or more.  2 differences this week

Utah St is not trash and the lower line is indicative of the power rating and line set forth.  At this moment in time there are so many confirmations that Vandy is worth of this line but I’m not congruent with that.  Next week is a huge game with Bama on Deck.  Line elevation because they beat 2 teams as dogs(Virginia Tech and S. Carolina?) Not as impressive looking at the moment. Selling Vandy 

UCLA +7 

Coming in after A -40 spread margin last week and a -70 point spread margin on the season.  Maybe the knife is falling and I shouldn’t attempt to catch it.  -6 straight non covers dating back to least seasons close as well.  

I am up against it here but Northwestern is a good hospital, and can heal UCLA.  +3 is what should be listed but they need to take away easy lines fading UCLA.  That’s why it’s extra. The lines setter is making a point.  Very few covers for UCLA this season let’s give them this one. 

Wake F+15

I see more uncertainty in GTCH than most. Biggest wins were 2 dysfunctional teams in CU and Clemson now away favorite and historically have problems getting people paid in these situations.  They already elevated to get here.  Proof was the non cover against temple -24 last week.  The book not giving easy covers to GTCH this week either.  

Iowa +7

and how does this not reach +7.5 

2 non competitive blowout games and Illinois is as you saw very vulnerable and volatile.  Iowa is neither of those.  They can create adversity in road teams and Indy still has yet to prove to me they are elite B10 teams. This game feels different because road games are different. In 2024 Indy was road chalk to UCLA and Mich St those lines were not as high as -7.  I feel Iowa is a step up in class from these teams.  Indianas recent success is against lesser teams than Iowa and in home games.  Let’s see them demolish Iowa.  

Virginia Tech +10 

comparing this line to being a home favorite to Vandy is two separate valuations.  NC State has a poor recent time as home chalk and this is and should be a bounce back for some previous bad lines against some previous good teams.  THE ODU game looks bad but they can play.  

I’ll dig into these later

Cal +6.5

N ILL +2.5

FAU +14

Liberty +16

Bowling G +10.5

TCU +2.5

On 3 reports their early bracket predictions.  

Alabama is not on their list and DSU was A 13 point dog the Bama.  FSU did make the list. 

FSU needs to establish line and power rating credibility. 

Love some of those picks

I actually bought -8 on Indiana! 

Iowa with not nearly as strong defense as traditionally....pretty good offense but Indiana showed why pound for pound at their positions, they have a Top 10 team

You may be onto something. I like taking faves on what I perceive to be value and wait on big lines to brew taking PLUS money because in the meantime, I can spend some time looking at how their run game would be vs the opponents run defense and so on...

I like this Gronkowski QB ....he reminds me a lot of Ben Rothleisberger in size and ability when he gets a chance to play free and easy 

@UGACLP1995

 Good for you. I pick so much trash sometimes done people find it difficult to be congruent. 

A top 25 ranked home favorite that is undefeated ATS  after week 4 is 1-8-1 ATS 

First of all it’s very rare for this to happen.  

Second of all it seems like the lines maker adjust to get everyone off this hot team. 

okay this game is bothering me so much I just spent more time looking at it.  I hate that Indiana lines remain close -7 against non elite B10 teams.  In fact I am going to retract this bet and move it to lean to the under.   What the problem for Iowa? they are also on A 3 game ats streak.  That’s holds the line balanced. That allows the Hoosiers to their advantage.  It’s really difficult to find info and support against Indiana and their history.  

Leans Indy -7 and under which means Indy Sonething like 27 to 34 and Iowa 7-13.  

if this is the case, it then becomes easy to ride Oregon the following week.  Indy score is normalized in this scenario and Indy has struggled as a dog against the more talented team.  

Good luck Spottie.  

@D-Town

I lurk watching to see how you 'flip' your mind .... I love it Spottie!

I am jacked because I just got a reservation for the Breeders Crown Harness Championships in their nice restaurant with a fun couple who grew up around horses like I did. ...we just had dinner a couple weeks ago and I had no idea my wife's friend had trained horses growing up. They begged to go out for dinner and so I just got a reservation confirmed. Only a 40 minute drive for us to see the very best in N.A. horses of 2 yr old and 3 yr olds. I hope there are no killer games on the 18th or 25th but I think we are going the Friday night instead of the Saturday. I booked the Sat for now. 

BOL this week bro 

@Last2thirst

 like doing this is easy.  Maybe I should make notes and post 11 am Saturdays? 

I don’t give 2 about horses 

@spottie2935

 Enjoy your astute picks and write ups.  You maybe correct on Iowa +7.  Only Iowa still is only average at QB, WR, LB, and DB.  Indiana step or two up from Rutgers, and if not for the IA int, different ball game.  Respect Indiana’s coach.  He has that team on fire.  Jmho, Indy 31, Iowa 17.  Btw, alum and huge fan of the Hawks.  Bol on all your pics!

@bandit1010

 I might be one week early as Indy does fail against more talented NIL type teams.  If Indy covers this week it’s a nice set up next week to take the chalk Ducks. 

you okay brother ? 

when people criticize others picks i just laugh like they know better and if they knew the outcome and they are not retired they suck

give me 1 guranteed win and im LOADED  keep up the good work.  Im rolling 10-4 this year and have a few i really like this week

I’m good. lol was just looking for something different to follow your thread instead of 

@Twoinches

 Good right on bro.  I stay right while others go left. 

I am pretty much betting against the world on some of these picks so I do accept the adversity.  I just don’t like one hit done and dashers.  I run through this and I don’t know if they even read it. 

I watch your thread and you’re doing great.  This is the tone of year line moves and volatility occurs.  It’s all out there this week.  I’m just dialing in. 

I usually am doing better by week 5 but I started messing with too many favorites.  This season those haven’t been fruitful when in past seasons it’s smooth.