NCAA wk 10

Time to get going on week 10. Last wk 1-4-1.  2 wk run of 1-7-1. Last year same 2 wks went 2-7.   A couple tough late losses but those were not bad beats just bad picks that happened to lose late I guess.  Congrats to all that dominated. 

Gonna be lots of write-ups again this wk - Research for those who do not have the time. We love doing this so sadly losing will not stop us from showing up. As always - fade or follow the picks - may want to fade until we get back on track ! 

Thanks for all the great comments and discussion win or lose we appreciate it 

mega

Ga Southern 24 Troy 

mega fair line 17

sagarin 26

We see a bit of value in the dog but someone way smarter thinks differently....For arguments' sake let us assume "fair" line around 21 - the question really is - Do you think Troy can give up 100 points this wk? The answer might be yes. So even tho we inititally had a slight lean to Troy - just cannot do it based on the fact that we are not getting enough points - 28 might do it - given the Xs and Os.

Ga S everyone knows how potent they are - 400Y/game rushing and have already scored 83 and 69 (last wk) this yr....Now the D gives up points too - 28 24 31 last 3 games to crappy teams like NM St Idaho and Ga St - so it is not like the backdoor may not be open it is just a question of how big of a lead they get out to in this game....GS also 11-1 ATS L12 games so red red hot and you know the line juiced up a bit to entice Troy action......Troy has lost last 2 games 80-27 against S Ala and App St....gave up an almost impossible 8.2/rush vs App St and 551 total Y - On paper this looks like a blowout just not sure about laying 24+ but do lean that way.

Troy 21-6 L27 to the over - may look this way when total comes out.

Summary

side - lean Ga S -24

total - lean over (waiting for number)

mega line 17

sagarin 26

Another game where we may be way off in our ratings - Obviously do not love Tulsa - but seems like a lot when you get to 21+....Statistically not much to say positively about Tulsa - really bad D - they can MATRICULATE in the passing game - but have not done well on the road especially this yr - including losing by 29 at FAU and by 25 at Col St - so the line does feel about right when looking at it that way....Memphis probably a team we do not want to fade playing really well - Other than UCLA and Ole Miss games - D has not given up more than 354Y.....O ranked 37 D ranked 26....Take care of the ball.....Think Memphis wins easily just not sure about laying more than 3TD. No read on total. Tulsa has given up 31+ in every game tho.....

summary

no leanage

mega line - 6

sagarin - 11

Definite lean to fav here but upset missed the 2.5 line early sunday - it was up for a while was just getting ready to hit a few then they all moved....In any event - gonna wait to see status of Cincy QB - if he is out - think Munchie may be ok - experienced and went 14/15 last wk to finish the game.....Cincy last 2G 75-20 vs SMU and S Flo....Entire RB core seemingly out for the yr but somehow found something called a Boone who ran for 212 last wk.....Tulane struggling big time on offense scoring only 13 6 12 13 - maybe switch of QB this wk + off bye + cincy D = more production ?? hard to say......Lean to Cincy but doubt we go whole hog on this one just can't trust them yet although maybe we should ??

summary

side - lean cincy -3 (if you can find it)

total - no leanage

mega line - 7

sagarin - 4.5

Missed the early 8.5 out there on B-online - probably should have taken it - but hindsight being what it is - who cares?....Think this may get to 7/7.5 and will decide from there.

Both teams off a bye....Louisville has not played much of a schedule overall but do have some decent performances - at Clemson almost won - yes vs backup qb but still clemson vey gooooooo at home....losing by 2 at Va....Whipped Miami wk 1 although miami qb first start...I mean you can pick apart any team almost - fact is Louisville D ranked #1 and great across the board....QB/RB/WR triplets back and healthy - QB 11 td 2 int - Dyer at RB - Parker at WR.....Always good at home.....Think they have a legit shot here......Fla St gonna have a tough time running against L and if that is the case - not impossible to see JW make some mistakes - 6 int already this yr...#101 rush offense - they will need to at least have a bit of success running that is what we will be watching early.....Fla St D like we have said - not a brick wall - and can be had - L not shown a lot yet- but again - we think they are healthier and off a bye (like fla st) think they can do enough to keep the chains moving and keep it competitive.....Fla St tough tho when it matters - #1 in RZ O and #9 in RZ D....PK is also a freak so any time Fla St get inside the 35 it is probably 3 pts guaranteed.

Summary

side - strong lean Louisville (waiting for the 7.5 that may never happen)

total - no leanage

You mentioned the biggest factors in this game. Louisville has both Parker and Dyer back. If Dyer plays like he can this could be a shootout. I don't put to much into Louisville #1 defense as they haven't played anyone that really has a pulse. Miami game was Kaaya's first start ever, Stoudt can only through quick screens. This will be by far the best offense that Louisville will play all year. With that being said, FSU usually doesn't play well on Thursday night games. All games were away. 

2002: Loss UR Louisville 26  #4 FSU 20

2002: Win  #11 FSU 48  UR Clemson 31

2004: Win  #11 FSU 17  UR NC State 10

2006: Loss UR NC State 24  #16 FSU 20   FSU -10.5

2007: Loss UR Wake Forest 24  #21 FSU 21   FSU -4.5

2008: Win  UR FSU 26  UR NC State 17    Pick 'em

2009: Win  UR FSU 30  UR North Carolina 27   UNC -2.5

2010: Loss UR NC State 28  #16 FSU 24   FSU -16

2011: Win  UR FSU 38  UR BC 7   FSU -14.5

2012: Win  #8 FSU 28   UR Virginia Tech 22   FSU -13.5 

GL Bro

bigjdjr - nice insight on fla st  GL this wk 

zelo - ya i think line move down a reaction to the police blotter news - frankly - at -4 i would probably take fla st or nothing. GL 

sooner - ga southern is soooo good we like em GL 

first play

A wise man once said - "He who struggles two weeks in a row should look to play the Jayhawks on the road at Baylor"....Or maybe that was a really stupid person - we always get the story wrong.

Nobody will like it - and cannot argue - just saying what we are playing. Baylor is 22-4 L26 home ATS.

Why might 36.5 be too many points? 

1. Kansas D is not that bad - especially against the pass - experienced - #2 in conference in red zone D. D has only given up 28 41 10 23 33 27 34. New HC has got them motivated think you can throw out early games with Fat Charlie as HC.  D has gotten better over last few yrs and yes it may still be pretty bad - but you cannot deny they are not getting blown away and Baylor will not go up and down the field all day at will....we hope.

2. Kansas o way better since HC change. Installed new QB - the porn star - Michael Cummings - not bad last 2 games 288Y and 235 2 TD....Yes we know Baylor is great but just need to cover 36.5 not win SU. run game does enough - have some weapons at WR and TE.

3. They do not turn the ball over a lot. #30 in t/o margin.

4. Baylor have Sooners next.

5. Baylor D statistically very good but have given up 58 41 28 before and to nobody like Kansas - but point is when you are trying to cover 36.5 you do not need to do much.

6. Petty is only 54.7% completions at QB for Baylor? It is actually the Baylor run game we think we dominate and that in theory shortens the game.

7. Baylor #125 in #penalties. One or two drive killing ones and this cover is looking good.

Now any of those points can be debated but as you know from reading our BS - its the collection of all of the above + perceived value in the line that made us bite. This KU team much better than the piece of dung with Fat Charlie coaching and a qb worse than me.

Our recommendation is that you should probably fade this pick but we are playing it. This would not be the first time a huge write-up led to a #totalshitpick. We are not trying to convince anyone with 17 paragraphs - just like to talk capping football.

Too many pts think we are getting an extra TD or so. Have the fair line at 28. Sagarin 35.5 tho. 

GL mega

mega line 13

sagarin 18.5

Have a lean to the dog here for sure - but will want 17+ to make the play....Sooners off just a brutal stretch - still really like their team a lot - but last 4 games - lost 2 but cannot blame them - K St TCU WV Texas....not easy - definite step down in class....What we like here is despite how bad Iowa St D is - Sooners have Baylor next and now have 2 conf losses.....essentially out of the picture....so they are only human - will the motivation be there 100%....Iowa St proven pedigree to stay close this yr including late loss to kansas st only lost by 4....Almost beat Texas on road...Won at iowa...Qb very dangerous and red hot.....Now oklahoma owns this series which makes us demand a lot of value....Iowa St D also very sketchy so they are gonna have to score some points here.....Sooner D in those tough 4 G gave up 33 37 26 31....Maybe TT over a better play ? Will reassess when total comes out.

summary

side - strong lean iowa st (want 17+)

total - lean over (waiting for number)

BOL this week Mega, hope you and your staff rebounds! 

Holy Crap! I didn't know she I was messing with you about making your picks that you weren't sober up first!