L2Thirst Week 4 Musing and Picks

Music wise? My friend records music and uses my inhouse speaker system with Klipsch subwoofers to check for quality.....usually when wifey is away haha....

Or do you mean record on the season? I was 9 - 3 week 1 and have risked a lot the past two slipping to 11 - 10 . I am positive in EXOTIC plays though

THAT IS AWESOME!!! I have heard it for sure but with the MUPPETS ...very cool 

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

lopez 

Summary of my Plays:

TEASERS > view Post #2 on my first page

SIDES/TOTALS:

Sept 14 >  Side Play #1 - USC -16 x 1U 

-this should be a  42 - 24 type of game at most (that is being generous for Mich St. as USC defense is decent)

-updated fact: USC with  #3 best OFF/ 35th DEF......... Mich St. with 39th best DEF

Play #2 Iowa -2.5 x 1U

-updated fact: 78th OFF / 12 DEF  facing  #32 OFF/54th DEF << I think they are poorer than this!

Sept 15 > Play #3  UNLV -2.5 (Bet365) x 2U 

UNLV 76th overall with 55th best OFF facing the overall ranked 115th ranked Miami Ohio with 136th best OFF/58th DEF

Sept 17 > Plays #4 /5 - Vanderbilt OVER 53.5 x1U

 ........and Vanderbilt -27 x HALF U 

Vandy is ranked #27th and beat a Virginia Tech home for 44 pts at home and they are way better rated than Georgia St who are ranked 127th overall and the 133rd worst defense, having to contend with the 30th ranked offense that is balanced and also have the 32nd best defense..... I don't expect more than 17 pts from GeoSt

Sept 17 > Play #6 Maryland +10 x HALF U

-fishy line going up for Wisconsin who have a weaker overall rank, a weaker offense and a weaker defense when compared in updated SP+

Sept 19 > ***NEW PLAY*** - DOUBLE UP if UNLV loses 2U !

-hit a nice horse P5 win last night so I am rolling some profit toward a new play that will serve as a DOUBLE UP situation if my 2U UNLV play does not come through 

BYU-ECU -  UNDER 49.5 x 2U and another 2U on the UNDER tomorrow whether in game or before game if UNLV loses (note, line may be different and I would play this down to UNDER 45.5

- BYU is dominating on defense especially vs middle of the road college teams and that is ECU

-ECU can play defense and move the ball as well (methodically) which is both teams style of play

I see a 24 - 17 type of score game here 

I like so many plays this week but I have to not look at my selections like its a smorgasbord

@spottie2935

 You would have more success if u bet horses that are bet down from the morning line--not more than the ml.

Best of Luck.

@Last2thirst

100% CORRECT! In most instances, when pre-first race odds come up especially, its best to pay attention because for a PICK5 starting in Race 1, greater than 75% of the time, the winner is one of the two line droppers when the pre-race odds are available for view about 75 minutes before the race commences 

I like that analogy DM 

Iowa's pedigree last night was shown. They win on the track they race every time they face Rutgers and even moved the ball up and down the field at will

Felix my man  ....sorry I haven't been playing like the Cleveland (Guardians) lately....man they are hot 

Pinata games today/they drop candy up and down the field today:

Over UTSA

Over USC

Over Vandy

Could be a pinata party:

Over Tennessee

Over Toledo

Over Duke

Over Miami - think the Gators score over 20 easily and therefore, Miami gets to over 30

Over Virginia

I used almost all of these in local parlays with Iowa last night ML and various soccer plays (mix of 2-3) + TCU ml 

@Last2thirst

BOL Brotha and appreciate all your efforts!!

Ya Baby!!  Let's crank it up to get ready ! Felix 

Congrats on the 2u win on the Rebels.  Nice comeback !

Results so far:

 Play #1 - USC -16 x 1U 

Play #2 Iowa -2.5 x 1U  

Play #3  UNLV -2.5 (Bet365) x 2U   very sweet win!!

Plays #4 /5 - Vanderbilt OVER 53.5 x1U

 ........and Vanderbilt -27 x HALF U 

Play #6 Maryland +10 x HALF U  

 ***NEW PLAY*** 

Play #7  BYU-ECU -  UNDER 49.5 x 2U 

Thanks bud....was seriously doubting it. Great call on capping MiaOh would be ready to take up the challenge!

@Last2thirst

I was right about UNLV’s Defense.  Don’t let that go unnoticed (in your future assessment of UNLV, I’m not pounding out my personal skill assessment, just make note)

UNLV offense can play ...that is a pretty good defense for MiamiOh

We be playing da OVER with them in the future!! Hey bro, I think this week, finally catching up with inputting my data and putting in many hours might be paying off. It still comes down to decision selection, so just going to continue to hope to put myself into the right position.

I almost was going to make my #1 play TEXAS TECH +4.5 but decided to take them in the TEASER key ...... they are seriously a Top 6-8 team ..so much speed, size and talent everywhere!! 

What held me back was Utah's homefield noise and good team setup themselves with a great o-line and strong defense that I thought would play to the crowd but in the end, so much skill on display by TTECH ...they are seriously for real. People need to watch that game on YOUTUBE and see what I mean. They even had a dozen penalties by their offensive line due to crowd noise AND STILL....won easily in a beatdown of Utah on their homefield. Jeezzzz

Huge races tonight at Mohawk ...at least 2 x $1 million races for the best fields in harness racing. Wifey and I thought about taking the drive tonight and grab a picnic table beside the track near the finishline but its gonna be cool later and we can watch it on the big screen....

RACE #1 starts at about 6:40 pm or just a bit sooner ...

I am capping the card right now.... its an amazing night to watch and fall in love with best racing possible 

Anyone interested, here is the link to watch and I will post my plays in my Harness Thread before I head out to lay some bets. 

https://woodbine.com/mohawk/watch-races/   

< copy that and watch. Biggest purse races start around 830pm but I just capped the first 5 races for the PICK5 and those are high speed competitive sizable purse races too..... no other night in harness racing has these purses over 14 races than anywhere in the world 

Most Impressive Teams Moving up in my Top 10:

TIE - Indiana > Mendoza is silky smooth and gets protected very well 

- excellent run game 

-unfair WR speed...the kind you used to see in the SEC but no more > SARRAT and COOPER are sick!!

-Cignetti could have a monster here that might upset the applecart

TIE - Texas Tech

- Indiana looks more polished but I don't know how Indiana would do vs the TTech defense!

- Indiana defense is good so this would be a great game 

3rd - Miami - defense stands out more than the offense....if I am being honest. They are pushing around a pretty big and fast Florida team 

- Don't think Miami is better than Top 3-4 Big 10 teams but I might be biased right now 

P.S.....SEC better play defense or they will get wiped again by BIG 10 teams come playoff

Thanks for your plays today! I really appreciated! Waiting on under on Kansas!

NP ....its been a good day rollo123 

I am about to book/update my Teasers in the A. Group. 

B. GROUP does not have a chance to win in this Indiana game I don't think but stranger things have happened 

RESULTS on Exotic plays:

TEASER PLAYs: 7PT - $30 each Group A pay +110 / $20 Group B  pay +200

Key:

A. Keys > Texas Tech +11 won outright wit h Under Kansas 62.5  with: 

B. Keys > Illinois +11.5  with USC -9 with Miami -0.5 : 

Take those with Key Groups with: 

1. Charlotte  +10.5  - lost by half pt

2. Michigan +6    

3. Maryland +14.5  -  won outright 

4. Oregon St +42   

5. Syracuse +24   

6. Army +8    

I seriously doubt I will get the B > Group keys.... Illinois is down 35 - 7 at the half

I spent $300 on TEASERS >> Booking back into account $315 > Up $50 on the season now

I don't think I will get my B-flight 

Monster night ....will settle tomorrow but right now I am evaluating my new TOP 25 field which is fun....

great work lets get USC to finish off the night