Will get back to answer once I get the Week 3 covers and lost covers into my data spreadsheet..... then I plan on working on Week 4 to verify if patterns are continuing.
Probably by Wed-Thurs, I might find some more...chat soon...horses tonight
oK....putting in Week 3 and then I am placing odd covers with ranks so it may take a while. I will report when I am done if tonight or tomorrow
I stopped horses 15 min ago
Hey Spottie, I have created a new Line Stats Thread and the results are very very compelling....
I am no longer looking at VANDERBILT as much because that line does not have a great success rate...... I still might cap it anyway
Really Feel the Total on LSU/OLE MISS is too high = 54.5 for two defensive teams with bulls on the lines?
- Simmons is not a great thrower and LSU covers their secondary well with speed and glue on receivers....I feel for Ole Miss to have success, they will have to time their throws and that allows LSU to sit in some zone occasionally which I feel that is a recipe for some turnovers for them .... I watched Simmons sail some passes in two games
- Nussmeir is a bit slower but need to watch some more tape
This game feels like a 27-24 or lower slobberknocker.....LSU has carved out a style and that is not to get into a scoring match like Georgia and the Vols did
Ya, I hear ya. Its like that for me in horses and stocks. I can put the work into research/visualizing both but at the end of the day, the performance is out of my control!! 
Did you see my other thread with the data I complied with spreads? I am going to be adding to it soon ....that might help with an edge. It seems taking pts this has been an uphill swim for a lot of numbers
yes I always read what you stand on.
im not congruent with it but I would not doubt your passion to stay ahead. I would like it more if you could compile a running list of the teams you like so I do t have to track your whole thread. I also understand time is limited.
Okla St is 1-11 ats and 0-8 last 4 ATS . They were at Oregon +28 now home dogs to Baylor+20. Ok St doesn’t get the full 6 points for home field either but if this venue was reversed the line would be +25 at Baylor. Yes let’s see if the books adjusted enough.
Colorado is a different team this season but they were so red hit covering the last 2 seasons they were -4 to BYU in that Bowl game vs. CU. Now and at CU. Line wise pretty decent and Retzlaf gone. CU has to run and stop the run. 2 huge issues that are a mainstay for them. They have to make plays offensively and they have been executing decent. Let’s see.
Indy and Notre Dame and both unders. Iowas strategy has to be keep powerful Indy I control. They will do as best they can but Iowas offense can not keep pace. Indy’s weakness in next week at Oregon and other win and cover in the game lowers next week line.
notre frame is not playing a ranked team this week their li e is manageable as well if they lose they drop out of the 25? I don’t horse that. Win this game stay relevant and inflate future lines again. So far notre danes go over. Now the total jumps 10 points!? If they play typical to their recent past they should limit Arky scoring enough not to climb 64 that’s absurd
Hey Spottie, I am not interested in teams that are not showing progress in their season from improvements at least....in offense firstly, and secondly defense.
I am avoiding those because of all the work I uncovered in 2024 ....teams that don't improve their SP+ in either offense or defense tend to be middling teams. Teams that improve both are winners and strongly in most cases. <<< so these are the edges I am looking at first. (1) Think Bowl games....establishes who wins. (2) do matchup strenghth with each unit, look at how they did their run game and passing game vs other teams and compare vs the opponent and play through what you expect should happen (3) measure the line for this favorite and determine if it can beat it comfortably.... if not, look at TOTAL maybe (4) make bet
That is my formula. Where I see us coming together is not fighting over semantics, finding the trend of recency + historical that makes sense on 1-2 plays and smash it!
I am Mr. Recency, and trust it.
You are Mr. Historical, and trust it.
When they combine....proceed so I will look at your suggestions above and focus on the recency and to see this season from the first or second game, is there a tangible improvement or maybe the coach decides to go to the 2nd string who is chomping at the bit?
Ok...saw your 2 posts and will look at those 4 matchups and get back to you when I can and have broken them down. There should be no rush here as the lines can brew 1-2 pts as it makes no matter to me since I don't cap for edges anymore to steal a line ....the data backs up my notion of what I was thinking
Will looking into:
ND/Ark
Col/BYU
Okie ST /Bayl
Indy/Ill
Hey Spottie, I am not interested in teams that are not showing progress in their season from improvements at least....in offense firstly, and secondly defense.
I am avoiding those because of all the work I uncovered in 2024 ....teams that don't improve their SP+ in either offense or defense tend to be middling teams. Teams that improve both are winners and strongly in most cases. <<< so these are the edges I am looking at first.
ever photo the casino and look at the scoreboard in roulette? If there was 10 reds in a row? It’s not wise to think that the streak will end because the odds of the game don’t change. They don’t add more blacks because of a long streak. Well not to sound too simplistic but in sports the odds do change. There is a middle man involved in changing the odds. When said team loses 8 in a row and the last 4 spreads by an average of -25 vs the last 4 lines. Volatility is a concern and I step in. Then I look at the lines and what took place.
I can’t explain it or show you until the game is played out but odds wise Okla st and a lot of my teams are a group of teams either too hot or too cold and the line setter is involved. So far I’m not hot or cold but I am consistent.
let’s see ok st this week and for that matter my wagers. I’m pretty confident I do better. TBD well see soon enough.
In sports betting my mission and focus is beating the line and out dueling the odds. The matchups are important but the line is the enemy.
One can’t know the mistakes or fortunes or misfortunes that take place when handicapping a matchup. Our mission is beating the odds.
you keep relating to horse racing and that’s your style. Cool, I’m not congruent with your skills and mindset. That’s what makes us a good collab
satisfied < that is key to everything .... work or perform to that level and walk away and have some fun kicking back or licking your wounds from a satisfying loss or tough win that had you worried ...meaning, you gave your all sorting and sifting and gave it a shot and performed to your expectations
Betting has got to be fun...
From someone who has done it now for pretty much, 50 yrs (since I was about 10 yrs old playing small stakes poker)
Hey Roadking thanks for popping by, I am all about the parlays locally and doing my Pick5's for $30-100 a couple times a week...sometimes more. Its nice to be able to enjoy it but I want to have success because my lady share in the spoils not only with putting up with it but when you get on a roll, it adds a nice surprise where she gets showered with nice nights out and manis/pedis that I toss some money toward ....all worth it in her eyes haha
I am seriously looking at this Memphis Total and thinking....its pretty high! This is not your pre-Trump days Memphis team .....they can play defense and no way FAU has the offense like an Arkansas that can move the ball up and down the field
Memphis in their mind only needs to get to 31-35 to win this game. I highly doubt their defense could give up 28 to FAU...I already have 6-7 plays so I am throwing out ideas for my parlays. I started some today with Utah -10.5 and UCF Under, LSU Under mixing those together with stuff I have ...and I got Bama/Georgia 51.5 TOTAl and pounced on it OVER
Exotic Plays:
Teaser: - 7 pts / 4 way plays pay +200/ $20 each pay back +40 profit ($60 back per correct)
KEYS: BYU +0.5 with Penn St +3.5 with Under LSU/OLE MISS 62 << like this straight up also
- not a good matchup for Colorado's poor run defense and inability to move the ball now facing a stud defense
- Oregon jet lag but yes they are talented enough to back door a win with a TD .....will PSU be ahead by 4-6 pts? I hope so, so you can bet I will be watching and playing Oregon to win 7 - 12 pts winning margin which would pay +650 - +300 or higher and throw $50 at it by halftime
- Durham for LSU is wonky but still may play...Ole Miss is terrible vs the run but their secondary is good....I see LSU driving the ball but not scoring too easily like they have all season ....with their defense, they can pin Ole Miss down and hope for Simmons to throw an errant pass...LSU defense is ELITE
Will be adding to this list over the next 24 hrs or so:
1. Georgia +4
2. Georgia Over 45.5
3. TCU +10
4. Cincy +11.5
5. Arkansas +11.5
6. Minny UNDER 58
7. Texas AM +0.5
8. Iowa Over 41
9. Hawaii Under 60.5
10. Arizona +13.5
My Plays finalized: (TEASERS as well ^^ look a couple posts up)
Play #1 - Alabama - Georgia Over 53.5 x 1U
Play #2 - ECU -3 x 1U
Play #3 Under N.Texas/S.Alab 63.5 x HALF U << my contrarian play
Play #4 - UCF +5.5 x 1U
Play #5 - Under 49 x HALF U
Play #6 - Indiana -8 x 1 U
ADD: Play #8 LSU/OLE MISS UNDER 56.5 x 1U it crossed a key total number - I am confused as to why this total is rising . LSU has a fabulous defense and Ole Miss is having issues with the run but LSU has a wonky RB who is likely gonna play....LSU has a nice play calling rhythm this year keeping their defense off for rest and being methodical with their offense
Play #9 - gut call - Zona +6.5 x HALF U
-compare their offenses and defenses.... and they both had a common opponent who is pretty good
-both with 2 weeks to prepare
- Fifita will cause defenses fits because of his escapability and quick feet to find a hole ....if he cannot get off a pretty good arm
- Zona's defense and offense just slightly better in my opinion but I think its a one score game
GL everyone ....should be amazing football to watch all day long
Add another Half U - LSU Under 58
Play #9 - Memphis Under 62.5 x 1U > FAU scored only 7 pts on Maryland and Memphis is now a strong running team
-FAU QB has thrown 7 INTS to 8 TDs.... good defense by Memphis ...they control the run and force you to convert 3rd down which will not well for FAU to accumulate pts. I see Memphis scoring about 35-40 but I don't see FSU scoring more than 21
Parlay HALF U - Washington +8.5 with Under 54
- they played to within 5 pts last game they played and this Wash defense is damn good..... so are the Buckeyes
Thanks Maceo
One thing I am noticing now midseason.... teams that tended to go UNDER and now scoring or being scored on with greater efficiency so I am going to have to back off on my UNDER play tendencies....just seek one until things change
I think the kickoff rule change is impacting totals due to better field position and teams risking more on 4th down! I am following lots of games and seeing that quite a bit this year ....
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