L2Thirst Biggie Games Week 5

Week 4 was a 'relief' week for me. We all know picking NCAAF games every week can be topsy turvy. 

Finally, after two weeks of taking traps, I reverted back to a strong week on sides/totals:

Week 1 record - 9 - 3

Week 2  poor

Week 3  poor 

Week 4 record 6 - 1 < almost perfect if not for a late Sparty TD (went to bed with 3 min to go and USC up by 21 /OVER was the play at only 55.5 most of the week!)

Season record: 17 -11 now (+3U)

Exotic betting (in-game/teasers/parlays) = $50+

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TOP TEAMS

 - thinks became a lot clearer.... SEC is a power on offense but not so much on the other side of the ball. If they are strong on defense like Oklahoma or LSU, they are not superior on offense 

-Big 10 has a lot of team who play well on both sides of the ball including very potent offenses 

Presently: 

#1 Ohio State

#2 Penn St. 

#3 Oregon 

#4 Miami

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#5 LSU

#6 Texas Tech  .... #4/5 and #6 will work themselves out just like the TOP 4

#7 Indiana

#8 Georgia 

#9 Texas  << will stay in Top 10 only if Arch improves  with Offense/beats Sooners

#10 Oklahoma - Red River Shootout will settle who stays/who leaves Top 10 !

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#11 Tennessee  - if they get their defense going/Top 10 material for sure

#12 USC - unlimited ceiling so long as their Offensive line performs and defense gets even tighter

#13 Florida St - only here due to alpha win and we will know soon if push up continues 

#14 Texas AM - high ceiling potential also if defense improves 

#15 Alabama - lets face it, they are chameleons now who could be top 5 team or Top 20 where they are 

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#16 - 20 

sort these? > Ole Miss, TCU, Utah, Iowa St., Michigan

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#21 - 30 

Vandy, Illinois, Memphis, Auburn, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Notre Dame, Arkansas and Washington

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Am I missing a team that should fit in the Top 30 that you see?

Play #1 - Alabama - Georgia Over 53.5 x 1U

- Georgia has a shaky defense but know how to move the ball well

- Alabama knows how to move the ball well, and their defense can be real good if motivated to use their talent

Strong lean BAMA +3.5 - DeBoer I am sure has penciled this game as everything for their year to stay in Playoff consideration and with preseason ranking in SP+, they were rated higher than Georgia overall #2 and now after 4 weeks, they still have a better OFF rank in SP+ update (#6) and DEF rank (#6) than Georgia both in low double digits

-why am I not taking Alabama then?? They are not at home! I might even avoid them on the TEASER as well

NOTE: Last year Alabama at home #4 beat Georgia #2 by a score of 41 - 34 

Play #2 - possible STRONG LEAN > Oregon/PSU UNDER 52.5 < I am willing to let this line grow potentially and if not, take it on the TEASER 

-PSU tends to play very tight ball games at home vs strong teams including conservative playcalling 

-Ducks #1 OFF/#5 DEF rating in SP+ update /PSU is #9 OFF/#4 DEF ....special teams edge to Oregon (#5 vs #36)

-Oregon is tired (2 weeks ago, they travelled 2-3 times zones to play @NW, then flew 2-3 time zones back home to play a rival, now they fly 3 times zones back east to play a potential #1 team to gain a stamp of approval for the College Playoff)

-my only concern on this game is, how sloppy are the Ducks defense going to be because I just tapped AI for an important question: DOES JET LAG AFTER ADRENALINE RESPONSES IN THE BODY? <<defenders tap this in their bodies as an edge

RESPONSE:  Yes, jet lag can make it harder to feel a natural surge of alertness and adrenaline because it disrupts your circadian rhythm

I may choose to take PSU Ml, ATS or go with the UNDER all depending on how the line performs this week....

Interesting.... my Bet 365 was open at 53.5 so I took it and now its coming down to 52.5 Georgia. I am may add but want to see where this goes

TwoInches 

Play #2 - ECU -3 x 1U

-Army has trouble with passing teams and they are not as good as last year as they are back to being easier to read

-ECU has a strong passing game and Army is not designed on defense for that and also are 2nd worst in sacks per game

-ECU coming into the meat of their schedule and face Tulane next week so I can see them focusing on this one with practice all week and last year they lost by 3 to Tulane so they will be fit on the line from handling Army's run game which they are ranked 33rd best vs the run

-I expect ECU to get a 7 pt lead at some point and squeeze a one dimensional Army team into mistakes while Army has issues with getting first downs as easily vs a tough ECU defense vs the run.....N.Texas is not a good defense and now what for Army?

Play #3 Under N.Texas/S.Alab 63.5  x HALF U

- N.Texas has 2 weeks off before another tough game on their schedule which could determine if they are in the running for the P5 Playoff spot potentially....? USF is who they play and they are top of the heap right now apparently with their stamp win over Florida and Boise.....N.Texas beats them, that raises their stature

- this game vs SAB at 1-3 will not be really taken seriously but SAB has a strong secondary and so does NTex.

-both SAB and N.Texas are in the Top 10 vs the pass  > https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game

-also, both teams are poor vs the run so this game is likely going to decrease the number of plays, increase the use of the clock and generally have N.Texas 

These teams put up 90 pts last year.....this year, why is Vegas setting a line of 63.5? Should it be closer to 67?

N.Texas has a good QB and a good run game so it makes no sense here to risk their standing vs a tough run team again who is 1-3 and might drive on them leaving their defense on the field a lot for the second week in a row. I expect them to play methodical drives themselves and not go for a quick hitter like they could vs a weak Army secondary

Nice work 

Play #4 - UCF +5.5 x 1U

Play #5 - Under 49 x HALF U 

- both teams are top 20 vs the pass ....UCF rated much higher in their passing game and middle of the road for run game but still better than Kansas St run game which is >100th ranked 

- Johnson does not impress me and this UCF team can play defense / both teams in the middle rankings for sacks per game

- I certainly think with KSST being a home team and having a good secondary according to the stat rankings, this game will be a bit of a field advantage type played in the middle of the field and FGs will be more normal than TDs

Thanks. 

A part of me thinks I might be swimming upstream with some of these plays so I am continuing to dig and sift

Line Alerts:

Vanderbilt -22.5 (Alabama on deck) - I know which way I want to go with the Vandy line vs Utah St. 

- I see line value but think I can get better

- I just went through this matchup and definitely see an edge 

Notre Dame - Arky Total 64.5 and ND -6 

-I see value in both numbers but think some movement is going to happen the way I want them

USC @ Illinois Total 59.5 / USC -6.5

- this can be exploited I think 

- USC plays 'differently' on the road and I see some Indiana/USC similarities but Illinois was embarrassed and butt whooped so I predict a different approach....will be diving into this one for sure 

Indiana @ Iowa 49 Total /Indiana -8 

-this might be too low.... this is not your typical Iowa defense and I definitely think Indiana is way more powerful than Iowa St on offense and they get 2 weeks off after this. 

-I think Iowa will take some risks with Gronk their QB and turn over the ball which will only add to the misery

- I can see Indiana putting up 35 easily here....if Rutgers can, so getting 14-17 out of Iowa will that be enough?  This is telling me what I should do with this line ....

Play #6 - Indiana -8 x 1 U

-Indiana 13th vs pass / 25th vs run and probably a size advantage on the lines here

Ole Miss/LSU Total 55.5 

-definitely have an opinion on this number and will check some things out first 

Hawaii/Air Force 54 

- this total may be too high with Hawaiis defense and style of play

So many games I like..... and totals to check out like Tenn on the road @ a good offense in Miss St. (if UAB can score over 20?)

Arizona @Iowa St....good be another grinding type of game ....Fafita can keep drives going but Zona having issues converting TDs vs good defenses and Iowa St has one ....Zona defense is pretty good 

Looks like a great week for selections 

You are NUTZ man the time and detailed research reflection, insane job last week, always a must read and preciated bro...

Working on my input of data for Week #3  ....almost done and will have some number nuggets for everyone....its fun @Skoonr 

What else do you do with your day in retirement? I get lots done and still have time for my love.... sports! I told a neighbor on Saturday that no I wasn't going to a fellow neighbours backyard to listen to him strut his stuff and get drunk when I could watch football all day and then Mohawk Million and the Metro Pace after! Insane races and the 2 yr old final pitted Beau Jangles undefeated vs Franz Hanover undefeated.....it was an epic race for $1 million. I grew up with people in the industry and been around it my whole life so betting and finding nuggets has  been my life

Frick man, I had my fun, toured/travelled/ played beach sports all over the place and lots of late nights and good times.... fun is a great college football or basketball game with something on the line or rivalry or great race

 What do you like this week?

Hey Doc, I was looking at this from an UNDER scope first of all but as I eyed each matchup using Team Ranking and envisioning the game matchups, I was surprised to see UCF has an edge but correctly, you point out 'who have they played' .....kind of like Utah got exposed having not played anyone of meat yet

I am a fan of K-State style of play and home field but UCF is doing something this year you rarely see and that is playing system defense 

I'd be ok if K-state shut them out or did a 24 - 7 type of win score ....I have the Under ....it would be worth it to know K-State had some wind under their sails again at home....that Zona game was ugly

Bad teams having bad seasons against Jan St until they become a dog or show up big.  

Vandy Ted hot.  Last line was -27 against a team that’s can’t compete and no look ahead game.  Utah st is better and Vandy is in a huge look ahead game.  They took down Bama last season and probably are excited for that game. Utah St for me. 

Bad teams having bad seasons against Kan St until they become a dog or show up big.  

Great write up

You still get queasy on a fave line 

Vandy is playing with house money and know they are better being loosey goosey and that last game proved it. They actually have a BETTER RUN GAME this year than their passing game and that makes them dangerous having balance ....look at the stats 

Bama better be ready and Vandy won't have fear because just like Indiana and Army last year, and themselves but an even better version this year, they just keep rolling and playing free and easy running up scores because they have the athletes now and the positive mojo. I was on a team like this in college in 85 and by the end of the year we were top 10 in the nation (not football although I was recruited by the same school to play football and they made national final) ...in 86' we rolled to take down the big boys by training hard, partying hard and just enjoying the ride. When you all feel good, train good, play good and just play free and easy with talent... you are dangerous

Like the Blue Jays in baseball. They won only 74 games last year (dead last in AL) and this year, top 3 teams letting the cream of their young blend in with some solid vets 

Utah St stats vs what Vandy is good at (running the ball) are not good and Vandy is good vs the pass....look at the stats for what I look at below in addition to SP+. I hope people like yourself fade Vandy so I can get them under 3 TDs because I have not committed yet 

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/passing-yards-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/rushing-yards-per-game  << very balanced team with a stud in Pavia!

Thanks UGA ...BUT I need more people like Spottie to hold my feet to the fire 

Really though, its nice to be appreciated but the truth is, I like to do a lot of research and then share in the community. At some point, I will gain the years of experience and ability to find the nugget of info a lot quicker. In the meantime, to me its just like a racing forum for horses which I spend about 1.5-2 hrs to cap 5 races well

@Last2thirst

 You’re hoping for a better line with Vandy? 

It’s like the moving trading places with the orange crop results in hand.  They are selling ???? 

I am beginning to like this Auburn /TexasAM  OVER 52.5 total 

-Auburn needs a big game /have a good team and can play fast in loose with this offense if they wish to and have a dance partner to do so

-Texas AM is the right dance partner.... rabid offense and young defense that needs time to solidify but in the meantime, their offense gives them a blow on the sidelines 

Check weather and wind in SDSU/NIU game....I favor the home team here ....SDSU is not a good traveller because they are a fair weather team !

Just looking at lines this morning and this is what I am seeing catching my eye

Good luck L2T.  

Always appreciated D-Town 

Really nice informative write ups that are much appreciated sir

Thank you 7272 

I fully don't expect to have people follow my plays necessarily but sometimes, a little research quip might spur an ideas someone has in looking at the game differently like taking a TOTAL instead of a side.