BP RECAP ..
PITT .. holy PITT .. we can put in the pile with the Buffalo loss from the other week .. in fairness it shoulda been a close game but we got the hot start up 17-zip we got the run defense we expected fully shut down Ville on the ground 90% of the game totally ineffective 2 sacks 8 more TFL's excellent up front under 2 yds / carry for the RB's besides the one 15 yd run near the end .. Teams traded free TD's early on w Pitt pick 6 but handed it back with the bizarre punt returner touch play handing Ville a free TD .. 2 Pitt had 2 more turnovers lead to short Ville TD's .. Narduzzi benched Holstein for the last few drives Cole Gonzales somehow was worse with drives going nowhere couldn't pass or run at all and that final pick deep in their own territory along w the 1 decent run they gave up all game really blew the cover for us.. we were 85% prob to win early Q4 and the +6.5 idk felt like there was the smallest of windows for that which Pitt managed to find ... Pitt w a 10 pt lead in Q4 vs WV and 95% win prob with 3 mins left in that one .. holy jeepers .. Pitt very likely to cost us the over 5.5 win total in the exact opposite manner in which they beat us on under 5.5 wins last year ..
TAMU .. didn't see much of the game but every time I tuned in seemed like we were doing something right .. Had a great home spot .. bested Auburn 415 yds to 175 so +240 yds .. multiple missed FG's, fumbles, and picks actually gave Auburn a shot to win and lost the cover by a hook .. Bill C's SP+ win expectancy says TAMU shoulda won by 21.5 99.7% win prob .. I mean .. WHAT THE HELL ..
CMICH .. the worry was that while E.Mich stinks this was a total mismatch with C.Mich's really good run game .. and early one easy peasy on way to our cover .. late game we did have a bit of worry .. but Chips final drive up 11 BULLDOZED their way to close this game out .. well done .. SP+ Post game win prob 98% 17 points and man o man somehow we were still sweating it ..
DUKE .. Spot play baby .. Ricky Collins needs to improve dramatically and the defense after the big clemson win left them no chance .. I'd expect if Ricky can improve a little he can actually turn them back into a solid .. @SMU feels likely more trouble but maybe another week back home, check his progress because Cuse has alot to like and maybe even something on D when they're not caught in a total blackout drunk death spot like that one vs a MUST WIN Duke squad w a solid offense and high pressure D .. and Collins doesn't need to improve much to get these guys to cover the big spreads I expect to see coming if SMU blows them to smithereens this week in Dallas ..
BP's cont'd ..
ULL .. Spot play again .. major revenge home game Cajuns got blown out in the champ game last year on Cajun Field and regardless of how horrible they've been you knew this was one where alllll systems were at a max effort to win this one .. Down 17-34 after QB throws B2B picks incl a pick 6 .. in comes new QB Lunch Winfield leading 4 straight scoring drives to tie the game and 2 more TD's in overtime .. 6 drives 38 points put him on your radar because he is a CERTIFIED GRADE A DUDE .. We definitely got lucky they had LUNCH ready for us but think for sure if we tried ULL in any other spot they'd have packed it in and lost this one and that is why we aren't just pickin' teams we GOTTA pick our spots ..
PENN ST .. Speaking of great spots.. GOY play got up to -7 pre-ssn before Oregon started looking super elite early on .. Penn State surprised us with inability to pass the ball .. really does just look like the same team as last year only without DO-IT-ALL DUDE Tyler Warren .. Nitneys had an outside chance to win and cover in OT but yeah good spot / wrong team .. and bad read that PSU's WR portal haul would help them their pass offense coming into this one seems worse than they were doing last year .. again it just looks like the same team only without their elite offensive star .. no excuses for PSU they were all in on this year and in a great spot .. let's just say the odds of one of those sudden 'show cause' scandals that leads to Big Game James' no muss no fuss firing is considerably higher this week ..
BP: LW 3-3, YTD: 10-15
SM: LW 4-1, YTD: 20-11
UTAH ST +22 
Man o man .. wrote it off at some point and didn't even think about it .. thanks! .. yeah I heard backup QB came in playing pretty well but that is a huge tough break for Utah State's QB1 he is a LEGIT DUDE for them and possible coulda wiggled them into a solid year if not maybe the MW champ game .. we'll see on other QB but that's a huge hit .. I acutally had some Utah St Q1 and H1 ML's running so was little more thinking about that .. Q1 very very nearly hit woulda been some wild like +600 .. after that I kinda tuned out esp when they were down massive .. 
SMALLER
CINCY .. SU WIN ... they coulda lost the cover .. very high variance tit for tat ending but having that number over the 4.5 woulda made most folks feel pretty good as the epic exciting conclusion .. we got a huge surprise in this game too .. expected KU D to not be all that great but didn't truly expect Cincy's offense to turn on the WOW FACTOR I mean there were some epic plays and playcalls all game over 600 yards and yeah I think we can start asking if Nebraska's pass D might actually be pretty good now .. I did expect Cincy's D to do a little more .. they kept Daniels bottled up from running and overall not much on the ground for Jayhawks .. and team never blitzes kinda expected pass D to get Daniels to make mistakes but didn't see that .. CINCY HUUUUGE WIN .. LET'S GO!
TULSA .. great spot but totally outmatched Tulane pass game was wayyy too much for them and Tulsa with a huge effort pulling out a number of stops trying to keep it close .. Tulane in a horrific spot came out a little flat but they quit screwin around close to halftime .. The hope pre-ssn reading the spot was Tulsa would be a SUPERMASSIVE dog if they looked like anything vs Ole Miss and coming into Tulsa after 3 massive P4 games very wild start to the year seemed like we coulda been catching 26 points or something huge and maybe catch tulane with their pants off .. but beating OK State pushed this idea down dramatically and OK State is a turd and we def lost the value we hoped for .. tulsa even had an incredible backdoor final TD chance which they blew and lost by 17, SP's post game win prob had this at 11.5 and just wrong side of the coin this time ...
VA TECH .. favorite call of the week .. coach fired spot .. catching 9.5 and played again at 10 it ended up being a huge play for me and had em baked into numerous ML parlays .. I think the mojo keeps going again this week .. wake off a total heartbreaker vs a team that might really come together as a team now and first conf home game since the firing yeah might be playing our boys again this week ..
MISS ST .. handed tennessee's defense 2 free touchdowns .. go to overtime and lose .. friggin sheesh .. Tenn 8.5 under is GPS RADAR MISSILE LOCK if they get one play to not be a total epic disaster .. miss state otherwise played a great game .. good call on the big line .. SP had tenn as a FG better in their post game win calc ..
SMALLER
TEXAS / FLA UNDER 53.5 (GOY)
Game of the year play from the pre-ssn thread .. Feelin good here think we're closing in on 45 for the total .. I'm sure some of the drop is weather related but truth be told we expected more of a run vs defense slug fest in this one anyway and so far defenses look this year .. both offenses .. really both QB's have looked horrific for much of the year and maybe close to okay at their best .. so yeah .. still like it .. lol ..
"PENN ST .. Speaking of great spots.. GOY play got up to -7 pre-ssn before Oregon started looking super elite early on .. Penn State surprised us with inability to pass the ball .. really does just look like the same team as last year only without DO-IT-ALL DUDE Tyler Warren .. "
You nailed it right there! I took the Under 52.5 and failed to sprinkle insurance on OT. Shame on me, but I did play Oregon ml.
BRIDGE PLAY
VA TECH -6.5
Played this immediately at open so I'm sitting on -3.5, -4.5 and took a smaller hit at -6.5 .. nonetheless I probably woulda played this for more at the bigger number -5.5 .. The good news for VT is their total epic collapse happened early in the season before conference and when we look back on it ODU was really the only game that was a true disaster .. S.Car went more or less as the books expected +9 or 10 and VT I thought had a shot to win that one barring some ugly mistakes .. Can't knock em too hard vs Vandy they are a seriously different team this year making use of the high ret pro numbers and improvements in a way that pundits had dreamed that Clemson was going to this year .. Remember when Clem was top 3 and #1 for so many?..lol..
I played VT vs Wofford and took em pretty big last week getting +9.5, +10, +10.5 .. such a massive game and line for a team expecting to show up in a big way .. QB play wasn't bad but the big stuff was high energy play from the D .. DL showed it can play .. we saw some of that vs S.CAR .. WR's can make catches we saw some of that earlier in the ssn too .. Terrion Stewart at RB the BG xfer had a great day and off of injury gave them a massive boost in an area they struggled with this ssn .. PFF shows the OL still struggles mightily however they gave up zero hits and zero sacks .. 10 pressures and better results .. OL still major concern but wake very little pass rush when not playing FCS or Kennesaw ..
Wake threw a big punch at home vs NC State early in that game and it fell apart late on offense and defense couldn't hold .. another big punch last week at home vs GT who was in a bit of a down spot .. Robby Ashford had a leg injury in game came out and went back in .. pre injury he had 82 yds on the ground and after he didn't run at all .. clearly he can play but any lingering impact sets him up for failure till he's healthy .. Desmond Claiborne is a great RB but got hurt last play in OT holding his arm .. its unknown if what impact that will have .. the potential is there for a massive amount of Wake's offense to be out this game or very limited .. tack on the natural deflating spot of blowing 2 games they were in at home esp last week where they shoulda won .. and kicker this is a fairly late first road game .. any power rating adjustments to wake have come from weaker comp and playing strong at home .. we don't know how it'll go on the road for them yet .. we do know that VT reallllly owes its fans a big home win after cratering vs Vandy and ODU in front of their fans .. I would expect all systems go here again and if they can bury a team for the fans this sets up well to do so ..
BRIDGE PLAY
C.MICHIGAN -7.5 (HROCK)
Just like VT BRIDGE ARMY VIP members got their fill on this one -4.5 at CZRs and -6 at Circa immediate big play for me .. for covers let's take the best available -7.5 at hardrock it's 8 or more elsewhere .. I'd like it now -7 ideally but this feels like a good and potentially great matchup sans maybe the road spot ..
Akron we know to be really bad .. new QB's since Ben Finley's injury .. one of the better RB's Sean Patrick was out last gm too also decent rec threat .. Couple of the better defenders LB Gage Summers and Safety Justin Anderson been out 2 games .. This is a really tenuous time for teams that have a horrific start and for Akron in particular because they can't participate in a bowl game this year .. anyone with an injury or played in 4 games may look at the situation and request to redshirt and idk what coaches can offer up other than their total understanding ..
C.Mich on the other hand we spotted up pre-ssn as a team that might change its attitude big time with their new HC who was part of the Joe Moore Award winning OL coaching crew at Army and the DC was the DL coach there .. just imagined good chance he shows up like Patton did in that move and start straighting everything up right away and getting things pointed in the right direction .. and we've seen it so far with really punishing run game .. CMU's weakness is vs a team that can halt them on the ground .. we saw blowout losses vs Pitt and Mich both very strong and check mated them .. this isin't Army's run game of last year but its punishing and strong and allows some opps to open the pass game .. Labas completing at a very high rate vs FCS and E.MICH .. not very strong D's but did also hit 78% vs Pitt albeit all short stuff .. still this is a dangerous weapon so long as CMU gets traction in their run game .. they also play multiple QB's and each have performed decently well so far 7 TD's to 1 pick .. Angel Flores is the better running QB and top rusher on the team can break tackles .. They have 2 pound that azz RB's .. Cornist can break tackles .. Akron has quite a few bad tacklers on D ..
I think we got the good line early because CMU looked so bad vs the better competition .. they were running over E.Mich early but little michigan teams always throw their best punch and E.MICH hung around with some decent passing from Jet Li .. I suspect Akron won't be as good in that department .. Akron giving up high rates passing and getting run over on the ground by everyone so far sans UAB .. if they are w out Finley again I don't see much potential for Akron's pass game .. where they could get 3 yds / carry vs WYO, NEB, UAB on the ground w out any QB threat Toledo punished em held under 2 / carry .. could be check mate again if CMU plays on par with games vs SJSU and EMU .. CMU's pass D has been surprisingly solid vs lesser competition and has at least 1 pick in every game so far .. GO CHIPS!
BRIDGE PLAY
OLD DOM -18.5
Took it down at -16 at CZRs immediately off the bat because this is a huge home revenge game spot for ODU after how things went last year and we know ODU to be not bad thus far with dynamic very strong QB play .. I've seen enough of Coastal to expect nothing good from them .. I took S.BAMA previously vs them and game was going great but Jags gave up something like 3 TD's in 3 mins of play very wacky exchange there and blew the cover and even the win .. Very good team vs I think team without much of a soul trying to figure things out and loved it at -16 knew folks would see the spot .. I played for something less but still something at this number too .. I expect this line to keep going up maybe 20.5 or -21 at some point here .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
TCU -13.5
I got whamboozled when I layed a big number vs the Buffs @TCU a few years back .. TCU looks like a very solid well put together team .. I took Buffs last week +7.5 for a few bucks expecting them to be in a very good spot .. huge revenge homegame with the blowout bowl and BYU forming but still finding itself coming to Boulder off B2B roadies .. we once again got a GREAT START with Salter playing huge and 2 TD lead .. we needed the spot to cover that one because like we've seen w the Buffs this year late in the game they sorta fall apart .. we've seen that vs GT and on the road vs Houston they looked totally hapless .. and they did it again in this one ..
Now turn the revenge road spot onto them and TCU off really a game they had IN HAND @ASU which woulda at least left them Co-Piloting in the race for the B12 champ game .. this is now all systems go and payback time vs a team without much of a soul or identity or idea how to close out a game or ability to rally and comeback and high risk of total collapse .. Wouldn't be out on the longest limb to believe Buffs don't win a conf game this year looking at what they got coming up either ..
WK 7 LOOK AHEAD
BRIDGE PLAY
MISSOURI +6.5 (FAN)
Posting the first line I could get but happy to see if there's a +7 out there or better .. maybe if Bama does their duty we'll see that but posting it here and maybe post another if a better line comes up ..
It's the spot I've been waiting for one of the most wild on the CFB schedule and very understated even the Mizzoo fans didn't seem to notice the potential to pull an upset here .. We have Bama coming in off B2B MASSIVE games @UGA and now one that's circled in even darker REDRUM RED is this revenge game vs Vandy .. can't understate the intensity of that game because while its been all one sided affair there's a very strong little pipsqueak brother rivalry between these teams and Bama always seems to show up for this game under Saban .. Way worse than the loss to FSU was losing to The Dores last year and so obvi this year the game is as big as it's ever been .. on deck Bama with Vols in another MASSIVE REVENGE RIVALRY and Vols sure lookin like a team that could bury their old rival once again .. And just for good measure Tide has S.CAR after a team that played Bama to the wire last year .. that game probably doesn't matter much but just gunna say that straddling this spot is more high intensity must win games than you'll probably find anywhere on the CFB schedule .. In the middle of it all is a trip to Columbia .. Tigers effectively off 2 bye weeks with Umass and a bye this week .. 11AM start time and easily the sleepiest spot on Bama's schedule ..
Tigers been tested by a couple teams with closer than expected final scores but Mizzoo absolutely murdered both of those teams in terms of yardage and other efficiency stats .. My real worry here is Mizzoo's Kicker situation they had a certified long range ACE going into the season who got hurt and now have a guy whiffing on a few extra points .. fingers xx'd a little this doesn't impact in this gm .. otherwise I've been all over Mizzoo since the jump with a killer roster top to bottom and Pribula and Hardy and numerous other pieces have looked better than I woulda imagined thus far but now we'll see if Mizzoo can do it on the big stage and maybe we see Hardy break out from mildly talked about potential heisman hopeful to a LEGIT CONTENDER ... anyone else hoping for that here?
^^^HEISMAN UPDATE ..
Annnd on that Mizzoo note .. let's check how the pre-ssn heisman picks are doing ...
HEISMAN
DIEGO PAVIA 300-1
AHMAD HARDY 500-1
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1
DIEGOOOOOOO.. Now 18-1.. big week buddy .. Household name to start the year .. highest ret pro .. expecting 4-5 wins and figure if he can get 8 we have a shot to get to NY as a long shot I mean he's one of the best most media friendly DUDE players in CFB history.. prob need 10 wins to have a real shot at the hardware which is a tall order esp if not in the SEC champ game .. would NEED a massive game vs the VOLS in the finale and 10 wins w their schedule would be impressive .. and right now .. sky's the limit baby!!!
HARDY .. Now 25-1 .. We called for him to DUDE OUT at this level and give us a shot if Mizzoo could have a solid year .. we counted on the easy early slate to maybe give him a shot to breakout with big stats and start getting his name in the wind among dark horse contenders .. Beyond our wildest imagination so far .. 730 yds is >100 more than anyone .. 9TD's tied for 1st and 7 yds / carry .. Funny thing is it could be so much more with Mizzoo's next 2 RB's and Pribula teaming up and stealing our dude's rush stats for an add'l 750 rushing and 8 rushing TD's.. total juggernaut team .. we hope for Hardy to assume more of a lead role in conf play and would be great to see him land some receptions .. so far just 1 for a couple yds .. We noted Hardy's broken tackle numbers last year and he's tops in the league w 46 only Cam Cook of JVILL in his neighborhood .. We expect him to get those full game workhorse carries in conf starting next week ..
MORTON .. Now 60-1 .. Was realllly hoping he and Damp would be dueling banjos back n forth scoring in their game the other week .. and if not at least one of them would breakout as the big name heisman QB out of the B12 .. ALAS .. NEITHER DID .. Morton injured and Damp stunk .. There's a chance piling on the stats but there aren't many BIG GAMES on their schedule to wow the media and Morton's big hangup coming in was lack of media mojo .. I could see him make the trip to NY by finishing with an undefeated season and as a big stat leader but it probably wouldn't move the hype needle far enough .. Needed him to breakout in that Utes game not hangout in the injury tent ..
DAMPIER .. Now 40-1 .. Some realllly great mojo for Damp early on after a few exciting games .. he might have the stats at year end but Wyoming and T-Tech were not good performances .. I can't see him recapturing the heisman spotlight and reset his trajectory to win this season without numerous consecutive DAZZLERS .. possible but I wouldn't even buy at the 100x price now .. shame ...
HORVATH .. Now ??? .. maybe 1 billion to 1 now .. never caught fire .. 357 rushing / 500 passing .. 8 TD's .. he had 1300 yds rushing last year and safe to say he prob won't build on that .. no chance ..
HEISMAN TALK CONT'D ..
a few notables and threats and maybe add plays ..
Dante Moore 7.5-1 .. I can't believe his final passing tallys in that PSU game and every week he's padding the stats .. I don't know if he's truly that good or how much the OC and dominant run game give him kinda free reign to throw the ball .. I wasn't particularly impressed vs PSU but again he got em the W and the stats looked pretty great for him .. very dangerous contender .. real threat ..
Trinidad Chamblis - woah nellie did the books jump on him quick .. he rose up under everyones noses while sharing time w Simmons till last week ... and now 1k passing 260 rushing 7 total TD's .. MAJOR TRAJECTORY BOMB .. gotta say watching the Ole Miss / LSU game again this is a MAJOR DUDE and whatever IT is .. he has IT .. It's not a surprise anymore Kiffin changed it up .. holy smokes .. TC is 14x at Caesars I'd shop for him sooner than later Ole Miss looked like a team that looked legit both sides of the ball competitive last week .. we get 30 or 40x on this dude still it might be one to consider ..
Haynes King .. very possible he can make the trip .. prob needs to win the ACC and very helpful to avenge his near win vs UGA last year .. 28-1 at CZRs is too light IMO esp when yer almost losing to Wake .. But like Diego a loss or two or close game prob won't kill his chances if he can lead the big year is so crucial .. would shop him closer to 60x if that's still out there ..
HEISMAN
TRINIDAD CHAMBLISS 16-1 (ESPN)
Ok talked myself into it .. didn't take a short odds for this reason the true hero might spring up outta nowhere and I do like the chances with Dante Moore, Carson Beck I do kinda feel like this dude is on another level and if Ole Miss has the team to have the BIG YEAR and they land in the champ game I'd expect we see our dude steal the show in a major way .. he really did look the part .. Lanning and Oregon are no strangers to hyping up and attempting to make a heisman happen like they tried woth Bo Nix a few years ago .. now they have Dante and they will no doubt be trying to land the hardware this year .. so important you have a coach to call stat padding games to boost a players candidacy .. Kiffin is also a Fox in that regard and I expect to see our dude TC go wild from here on .. my one concern is if he's got some partiality to Austin Simmons and giving him some reps going forward .. tough to keep him totally on the bench IMO but clearly this team has moved on to the new QB1 .. on that note .. makes for a pretty EPIC backup QB situation incase TC gets hurt .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAYS
TCU -13.5
VA TECH -6.5
OLD DOM -18.5
C.MICHIGAN -7.5
MISSOURI +6.5 .. WEEK 7
SMALLER
NEW MEXICO +2.5
NEW MEX / SJSU OVER 57.5
Grabbed the over 55.5 before folks started putting 2+2 together on what this one could turn into .. SJSU abandoning their run game already this year really airing it out big so far .. we know New Mex can be very tough up front vs the run I'm not sure how strong their pass rush really is .. what I can say is they got some pressure last week vs their big rival NSMU and still NSMU able to have a decent day passing 20/37 255 .. and I don't think they're all that good .. if Eget doesn't spend more time to throw than he has to and if gets that little extra second to get guys down field he can connect on deep throws and if very likely to see quick 3 n outs in this one ..
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