2011 NCAAF Strategy

Sorry brother, NFL is something I stay away from. I haven't found anyone that can consistently cap NFL. This was a horrible week for me in NCAAF. I will rebound on the last week.

All right, this is the last week for regular season. I have at least one game each day. Thursday is WV and they have the edge in this game. I initially was leaning towards an OVER in this game, but the 1.5 is much more appealing. Check back tomorrow for Friday's game.


Sept 03 - Auburn -24 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - Stanford -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Ohio St -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Virginia Tech -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - Mississippi St. -30 (V40) WIN
Sept 09 - Missouri +10 - WIN
Sept 09 - Stanford (V39) - WIN
Sept 09 - USC -8.5 - WIN
Sept 09 - N. Illinois -4 - LOSS
Sept 09 - Arkansas -35.5 (V41) - WIN
Sept 16 - Boise St.. -19 - WIN
Sept 17 - TCU -28.5 (H58) - LOSS
Sept 17 - Temple +7.5 - WIN
Sept 17 - Stanford -10 - WIN
Sept 23 - BYU -2.5 - WIN
Sept 24 - Missouri +22 - WIN
Sept 24 - Boise St OVER 61 - WIN
Sept 24 - Wisconsin -35 (H62) - WIN
Sept 24 - TCU -38 (H55) - WIN
Sept 30 - BYU -7.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Wisconsin -9 - WIN
Oct 01 - Stanford -20 (H35) - WIN
Oct 01 - TCU -11.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Arizona +12.5 - WIN
Oct 07 - Boise St -21 - WIN
Oct 08 - Ohio St. +12 - WIN
Oct 08 - Stanford -29.5 (H33) - WIN
Oct 08 - Alabama -29 (H35) - WIN
Oct 08 - Connecticut +19 - LOSS
Oct 08 - San Jose St. +12 - LOSS
Oct 14 - Hawaii -6 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Utah St. -3 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Stanford -21 (V33) - WIN
Oct 15 - Iowa -6.5 - WIN
Oct 15 - UTEP +1.5 - WIN
Oct 20 - Arizona -4.5 - WIN
Oct 22 - Nevada -10.5 - LOSS
Oct 22 - UTEP -7 - WIN
Oct 22 - Wisconsin -7 - LOSS
Oct 26 - Connecticut +10.5 - LOSS
Oct 27 - Virginia v Miami OVER 48 - WIN
Oct 29 - Stanford -7.5 - WIN
Oct 29 - Oklahoma St -14 - WIN
Nov 3 - Boston College OVER 44 - WIN
Nov 5 - SMU -25 (H27) - LOSS
Nov 5 - Ohio St. -27.5 (H30) - LOSS
Nov 9 - Miami Ohio OVER 44 - WIN
Nov 12 - Stanford -3.5 - LOSS
Nov 12 - Wisconsin -27 - WIN
Nov 19 - New Mexico UNDER 50.5 - WIN
Nov 19 - Arkansas OVER 53 - WIN
Nov 19 - BYU -22.5 - WIN
Nov 19 - Oklahoma -15.5 - LOSE
Nov 19 - Stanford -18 - LOSE
Nov 25 - N. Illinois -19.5 - LOSE
Nov 25 - Houston -3 - WIN
Nov 25 - Iowa OVER 53.5 - LOSE
Nov 26 - Texas Tech +13.5 - LOSE
Nov 26 - Nevada +1.5 - LOSE
Nov 26 - Mississippi +17 - LOSE
Dec 01 - West Virginia -1.5 - PENDING
3 - 4 - 0

UNOFFICIAL PLAYS
Sept 15 - Mississippi St. +3 LOSS
Sept 17 - Utah +4.5 WIN
Sept 24 - Utah St. -10.5 LOSS
Oct 15 - Arizona St. +14.5 - WIN
Oct 27 - Rice v Houston OVER 70.5 WIN
Nov 3 - CFU OVER 48.5 - LOSE
Nov 23 - Texas OVER 54 - LOSE

Still take it at -2.5?????

I've said this before +/- 1-3 points is worth the risk.

The official Friday play is N. Illinois -3. Really struggling with this on or the Oregon game. No way UCLA is going to keep pace with the Duck offense, but defensively they could slow the assault which could cause them to cover, but it's more likely that the Ducks drop the hammer on them and score 30 - 40 unanswered. Just can't take that many points this late in the season.

N. Illinois on the other hand is in much the same position as West Virginia is tonight. They are the better team.

Friday Official Play
Northern Illinois -3

Another winner in the book now!

open

OK, I am biting the bullet. There is no way that UCLA is getting any where close to Oregon tonight.

Official Play
Dec 02 - N. Illinois -3 - PENDING
Dec 02 - Oregon -31 - PENDING

Well it's not a loss, but my first push! One last pick tomorrow.

For years I have believed that there comes a time when teams dig deep for that something extra. If you played sports or were in the military you've probably heard the phrase "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step." or some variation of that quote. The point being, the intangible strength we all possess, but few ever access like Villanova toping Georgetown to win the 1985 NCAA championship or Buster Douglas KO of Mike Tyson for the heavyweight championship in1990.

Filters I believe are needed to deal with this. It's happened in baseball and now in NCAAF. Next year I am going to stop in week 12 and narrow the picks based on some statistics I kept track of.

Sometimes its better to just enjoy the game and not the outcome. I love BOWL and Playoff games and I hope to enjoy a few.

Thanks for the ride and don't forget to watch for the Bettor2Win thread in April. I'm sav'in my 16K until then and hope to unload on MLB for the biggest season EVER!

nice so what was your wins and losses and total unit profit from this?

I will post it tomorrow after the last game.

Here is something funny. I lost all my bankroll on the N. Illinois game because my book had it at -3.5

Guess the -0.5 was not worth the risk Irage.

All my picks are plus or minus 1-3 points. Sometimes it doesn't work out. I always look for teams that exceed that margin. SMiss offense is good, but no match for Houston. Houston has the pedal to the floor and I don't see them letting up. SMU defense can be stingy, but the Houston weapons are deep and they will find a combination that gets them in endzone.


Sept 03 - Auburn -24 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - Stanford -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Ohio St -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Virginia Tech -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - Mississippi St. -30 (V40) WIN
Sept 09 - Missouri +10 - WIN
Sept 09 - Stanford (V39) - WIN
Sept 09 - USC -8.5 - WIN
Sept 09 - N. Illinois -4 - LOSS
Sept 09 - Arkansas -35.5 (V41) - WIN
Sept 16 - Boise St.. -19 - WIN
Sept 17 - TCU -28.5 (H58) - LOSS
Sept 17 - Temple +7.5 - WIN
Sept 17 - Stanford -10 - WIN
Sept 23 - BYU -2.5 - WIN
Sept 24 - Missouri +22 - WIN
Sept 24 - Boise St OVER 61 - WIN
Sept 24 - Wisconsin -35 (H62) - WIN
Sept 24 - TCU -38 (H55) - WIN
Sept 30 - BYU -7.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Wisconsin -9 - WIN
Oct 01 - Stanford -20 (H35) - WIN
Oct 01 - TCU -11.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Arizona +12.5 - WIN
Oct 07 - Boise St -21 - WIN
Oct 08 - Ohio St. +12 - WIN
Oct 08 - Stanford -29.5 (H33) - WIN
Oct 08 - Alabama -29 (H35) - WIN
Oct 08 - Connecticut +19 - LOSS
Oct 08 - San Jose St. +12 - LOSS
Oct 14 - Hawaii -6 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Utah St. -3 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Stanford -21 (V33) - WIN
Oct 15 - Iowa -6.5 - WIN
Oct 15 - UTEP +1.5 - WIN
Oct 20 - Arizona -4.5 - WIN
Oct 22 - Nevada -10.5 - LOSS
Oct 22 - UTEP -7 - WIN
Oct 22 - Wisconsin -7 - LOSS
Oct 26 - Connecticut +10.5 - LOSS
Oct 27 - Virginia v Miami OVER 48 - WIN
Oct 29 - Stanford -7.5 - WIN
Oct 29 - Oklahoma St -14 - WIN
Nov 3 - Boston College OVER 44 - WIN
Nov 5 - SMU -25 (H27) - LOSS
Nov 5 - Ohio St. -27.5 (H30) - LOSS
Nov 9 - Miami Ohio OVER 44 - WIN
Nov 12 - Stanford -3.5 - LOSS
Nov 12 - Wisconsin -27 - WIN
Nov 19 - New Mexico UNDER 50.5 - WIN
Nov 19 - Arkansas OVER 53 - WIN
Nov 19 - BYU -22.5 - WIN
Nov 19 - Oklahoma -15.5 - LOSE
Nov 19 - Stanford -18 - LOSE
Nov 25 - N. Illinois -19.5 - LOSE
Nov 25 - Houston -3 - WIN
Nov 25 - Iowa OVER 53.5 - LOSE
Nov 26 - Texas Tech +13.5 - LOSE
Nov 26 - Nevada +1.5 - LOSE
Nov 26 - Mississippi +17 - LOSE
Dec 01 - West Virginia -1.5 - WIN
Dec 02 - N. Illinois -3 - PUSH
Dec 02 - Oregon -31 - LOSE
Dec 03 - Houston -13.5 - PENDING


UNOFFICIAL PLAYS
Sept 15 - Mississippi St. +3 LOSS
Sept 17 - Utah +4.5 WIN
Sept 24 - Utah St. -10.5 LOSS
Oct 15 - Arizona St. +14.5 - WIN
Oct 27 - Rice v Houston OVER 70.5 WIN
Nov 3 - CFU OVER 48.5 - LOSE
Nov 23 - Texas OVER 54 - LOSE

Any bowl bets irage?