L2T Footy Theories /Plays

UCL OVERS today:

Arsenal OV 2.5 +90 x 1U  

Bay Lever OV 2.5 +54 x 2U  and Ov 3.5 +130 x Half U  

Copenhagen Ov 2.5 +80 x 3U 

hedge bet > correct score 1 - 1 @+600 x HALF U

hedge bet > correct score 1 - 2 Dortmund @ +750 x HALF U

hedge bet > correct score 2 - 2 tie @ +1200 x $15  >>> -$65 for hedge bets

Inter/Union Ov 2.5 x 1U +90  

$425 on the line here....  pretty damn good day ...returned $681 on Overs  going  4 - 0 for  $256 profit today

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Season stats:

UCL OVERS account = $+479 

Premier League OVERS account = $+140

DATA Plays ( +$104 gain = +2.02 U)

-$172 on exotic plays (correct scores/hedge bets/halftime-fulltime bets and parlays)

Wed UCL Overs:

Bodo-Galatasaray Over 3.5 x 3U  +90

-potent scorers and tactics on both sides 

also:

Correct score 2 - 2  pays 12x  HALF U

Galatasaray 2 - 1 pays 8x HALFU

Gala  3 - 1 pays  10x HALF 

$75 in exotic bets that can be quite lucrative .....

I love this bet offering at BET 365:

Bayern to win / total game goals 2-4 pays +120  x 2U << Bayern can pour it on sometimes so be cautious a little

Real Madrid /Juv Over 2.5 x 2U  +54

-both teams leaking goals badly and Real resting starting defense for Classico on the weekend

Sporting /Marseille x 2U   +61 

-both teams like to score and Sporting sometimes scores 4 goals at home in open games....Marseille beat PSG recently and a lot of games before and leading up to it

Remember...teams want the foot on the gas because of goal difference matters to get to division play .....it breaks ties of points earned so 2-2 ties are a good thing.... 1-1 is not 

4 - 0 on UCL Over selections today....doesn't mean I will go 4 - 0 again so be selective here....I think 3-1 is likely especially my OVER 2.5 selections

Data Pattern Hunches (no plays):

Turkey 

-both Konyaspor and Besitkas both have the same pattern over two games and three games and when each team has this pattern of Win/Tie/Loss over their past 3 games, they tend to Lose or Tie the next game after

- suggest TIE today 

-Rizespor on a LW pattern for two games and LWL for 3 ....which implies Win or Loss is most common result after

-Basakashir on LL and LLL triple game pattern ... this tends to lead to Win or Loss too

-suggest one side might be dominant but notice home side rarely scores and visitor does not score much

-suggest UNDER today

Wed UCL bets:

Bodo-Galatasaray Over 3.5 x 3U  +90   > pays +$135 profit

-potent scorers and tactics on both sides 

also:

Correct score 2 - 2  pays 12x  HALF U

Galatasaray 2 - 1 pays 8x HALFU  >> lost -$50 in hedges 

Gala  3 - 1 pays  10x HALF  >  > pays $250 profit on hedge bet

$75 in exotic bets that can be quite lucrative .....

I love this bet offering at BET 365:

Bayern to win / total game goals 2-4 pays +120  x 2U  > made +$120 profit 

<< Bayern can pour it on sometimes so be cautious a little

Real Madrid /Juv Over 2.5 x 2U  +54  > lost -$100 

-both teams leaking goals badly and Real resting starting defense for Classico on the weekend

Sporting /Marseille x 2U   +61  > win profit +$61

Pretty good day.....earned +$412 profit today....will update overall at the end of the week

 I’ll be checking in, best of luck. I like to tail a futbol wager now and then….love the game. 

JJ

Hey JJ, I have found angles and will share in here. Yes, Football athletes and their play has never been better in the past 10-20 yrs ....long time soccer bettor but it can be patterned to produce good profits that fund my other betting. I have taken a break from College Football to focus on this, NCAAB and horses

And of course....my Blue Jays are in the World Series so lots of time socially with friends and neighbors enjoying it and having parties

Glad I backed off UCL post game OVERS this week....I will get into them the next game for sure. International soccer I find, tends to disrupt the players a little too much UNLESS the nation soccer is in free flowing games and with WC play being really tight at times lately, I think the players come back a little too constrained....

Going to report on 3 game patterns > best ones > for what happens the 4th game after a pattern .....soon.....it takes me hours to get these patterns completed over 11 leagues but its already paying off in spots 

Ok, I have inputted all of my games in to about 7 - 10 league games in 11 separate leagues. I have cracked all of the 3 game patterns finally and this is what I have come up with for next 4th (game forthcoming) >> following a particular 3 game pattern

Follow these patterns to pick a high % winner:  - from these Leagues

Germany 2 , Bundesliga, France Ligue, France 2, Premier L., League One, Netherlands Erv., Portugal Liga, Italy Serie A, Spain La Liga, Turkey Super 

Take Win after these patterns if you like matchup or its close:

Win/ Win/ Win  = hits win next game 47.5% (61 instances)

This week try: Kocealispor  (Turkey), Real Mad, Rayo Vall (Spain), AZ (Nether.), Lens (France Ligue), Rotherham (L1), Stockport (L1), Man United, 

Win/Win/Loss = hits win next 55.6%  (45)

This week try: Alverca (Portugal), Feyenoord, Inter Milan, Elversberg (Germ.2), Marseille, Toulouse, Chelsea

Loss/Win/Win = hits win next 51.2%  (41)

This week try:  Espanyol (Spain), Gil Vincente (Portugal), Hoffenheim, Montpellier, Amiens (France 2), Bolton (L1), Sunderland, 

Brentford, Burnley

tie/Win/Win = hits win next  50%  (24)  >> try Rio Ave (Portugal). Sparta (Nether.), Torino, Lepzig, Red Star (France 2), LeMans (France 2), Annecy (France 2), Lille, Nice, 

tie/Loss/tie = hits win next  50%  (22)  >> try Kasimpasa (Turkey), Cagliari, 

tie/ Win/ tie = hits win next 67%  (15)  >> try  Mansfield (League One), AC Milan, Como (Italy), Troyes (France 2), 

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Will be analyzing these games only for now ....in league play next time it comes around.....want to see if my pattern stats can give a winning boost to my selections....UCL begins again after this coming weekend starting with Halloween ....I will be on OVERS for Premier League participants as well as any league games above 

Based on my triple game patterns and searching for Wins and Fades of teams, I did some fade parlays unannounced in here but on Proline for Stockport to beat Port Vale in League One game today and wouldn't you know it, Stockport jumps on them for a 25 min 2-0 lead so far.... maybe the patterns begin to bear fruit right away?

Tuesday Plays:

-lots of German Cup games that I tend to avoid unless I feel there is going to be a big time OVER play once it moves along further ...but the other thing I notice with these games midweek, the loose play spills over into Bundesliga and Bund 2 totals as more OVERs appear in the following weekend play ....keep an eye to see if this pattern carries into this year too

Data Play #1- Mansfield (h) x 2U

-my pattern analysis has uncovered that when rarely, teams over 3 games go Tie/Win/Tie, the next game they tend to win at a high rate of 10 / 15 instances across 11 leagues.

- Mansfield with a good home record where they win or tie a lot facing a 3rd from the bottom team in Plymouth

-trend looks like it could pay here 

More to come ....

Tuesday Plays Continued....

Data Play #2 AC Milan Win +170 x 1U

Standard Play #1 Atlanta /AC Mil Under 2.5 x HALF U @+100

-AC Milan in a perfect situation for my patterns....same as Mansfield play > TIE/WIN/TIE in their last 3 which 10 out of 15 x tends to produce a win so far this season across 11 leagues

-AC Milan has not let in a goal on the road and Atlanta is traditionally weaker at home vs road in the past 10 yrs mostly

Standard Play #2 - Aguilas /Evigado Over 2.5 +125 x 1U

correct score 2 - 0 pays +600 x $30 

correct score 3 -0 pays +1200 x $10

correct score 2-1 pays +800 x $10

-Aguilas plays a high scoring match if their opponent likes an open game on the road and Envigado does being in 20 goals over 8 games in their matches ....Aguilas will not fear their opponent and just play an open game trying to score 2-3 goals themselves like they can

Data Play #3 - Montpellier win +115 x 1.5U

Correct Score 1 -0  pays +600 x $10

Correct Score 1-1 pays +550 x $20

Correct Score 0 - 0 pays +850 x $10 

Standard Play #3 - UNDER 2.5 goals +70 x 1U

-Both teams with low totals on the road and at home for Clermont .... I can see a 2 - 0 win but would rather pick up the UNDER as it is most likely to happen between these two teams and its a midweek game  

Last Value play that uses a pattern..... this team is the #1 road team in Ligue 2 with 12 goals for and only 2 against going against a team that has a fade pattern in Dunkerque

-Red Star also is in a WIN next game pattern hitting 50% on the season 

Data Play #4 - Red Star Win +200 x 1.5U

Hedge > Tie @ +210 x HALF U 

There are a lot of plays that I could go for tomorrow but laying out some value and what I feel are consistent situations ..... if you follow 

@Last2thirst

 Takin* a beatin* in soccer . Need some good favourites .

I am having a pretty good start because I am not chasing glorified matchups..... sticking to principles and patterns that I uncovered..... be selective with what I provide and remember.....just because something is a favorite doesn't mean you will hit 50% of the time. I have learned that all too well and in the past couple of years, I have altered my strategies in NCAAB, MLB, NCAAF << although I struggled this year after I went off data research to compliment my selections..... and now soccer this year 

Put in the work..... and be selective is the right combo. I wish you well sailorman1965 and born in the same year myself 

p.s. ...applying a similar strategy in the markets and its paid dividends in past 15 months.....watch...find patterns, apply strategy and collect reward

Tuesday Plays:  - RESULTS

Data Play #1- Mansfield (h) x 2U   > profit +$105

Data Play #2 AC Milan Win +170 x 1U   >> lose $50  

Standard Play #1 Atlanta /AC Mil Under 2.5 x HALF U @+100   > profit +$25

Standard Play #2 - Aguilas /Evigado Over 2.5 +125 x 1U

correct score 2 - 0 pays +600 x $30 

correct score 3 -0 pays +1200 x $10

correct score 2-1 pays +800 x $10   ............... ALL TBD ...not looking good any of this!!

Data Play #3 - Montpellier win +115 x 1.5U  > lose $75

Correct Score 1 -0  pays +600 x $10  > lose $10 

Correct Score 1-1 pays +550 x $20   > profit +$110

Correct Score 0 - 0 pays +850 x $10  > lose $10

Standard Play #3 - UNDER 2.5 goals +70 x 1U  > profit +$35

Data Play #4 - Red Star Win +200 x 1.5U    > lose $75

Hedge > Tie @ +210 x HALF U   > lose $25

Lost so far.... -$245 vs Gains of + $275 ....mix results.....could be a losing day if Colombia play does not reverse (-$90 on the line there)

You take your shots right 

Wednesday Plays:

exotic play > Roma +57 win with Como +55 win parlay x 1U pays +143 

Standard Play UNDER 2.5 Roma +72 x 2U 

-Parma has scored zero goals on the road and if they do score, I assume it would be late because Roma tends to win a lot of games by 1-0

Exotic Play - Marseille Win and Under 2.5 goals  @ +250 x HALF U 

-Angers has scored 1 goal on the road and Marseille lost recently and need to get back to organized play setting up goals via their organization rather than individual play.....they are not the kind of team to stomp on a low scoring team in my opinion because the motivation won't be there

Lost another $75 today.....hit 1 of 3 plays ....some unusual twists but its ok....its a process and I stick to what I am trying to do using data and experience

Don't like a lot of OVERS this week but for sure will play UCL ....and Data patterns next week....GL if you are betting

UCL games on Tuesday and Wednesday this week

Trying to decide which OVER I like better on Tuesday..... BODO-MONACO or PSG-BAYERN MUN.?

Interesting that there were very few OVERS in UCL today..... I think the switch will be flipped soon to see things amp up pretty soon because GOAL difference is going to matter in the 2nd half of the division play 

This week is cautious play and glad I laid off ...... season game schedule soon to ramp up and I will be pressing soon in league play because defense goes by the wayside I find once teams get into 2 games  + Euro competitions