the_dude911

@Xdoge

 Yeah just saw Barnes hasnt lost 4 in a row since like 2011 or something like that.  I'm on Louisville +2.5 but definitely concerned the more I wander the web.  I think coming off a 10 day layoff is actually a negative though.

@Buzzard311

 I'm on Louisville +2.5 but just saw the Louisville newspapers Cards beat writer picked Tennessee to cover.  Don't see that too often.  

I guess maybe the smarter alternative would be to in game bet it if I can get an improved number by half or early 2nd half.  I just dont see Louisville folding....I mean sure they lost the ARK game but they got it down to single digits in the 2nd half from an 18 pt deficit.  

@HappyKane

 Been following the line all afternoon after I bet the game Louisville +2.5.  I see you can get Louisville now for +3.5.  At one point it was juiced all the way up to -118 at that number but has since settled back to +3.5 -110 on both sides.  According to draftkings splits, the money is 62% on Tenn while 59% of the bets are on Louisville, which has me somewhat concerned.  

I guess my first question is why are you only betting first half louisville?  Do you expect the home team advantage to kick in for Tenn the 2nd half?  I'm thinking the line is gonna probably stay at +3.5......do you think that is worth hitting again or just leave it at my original bet only.

Marshall +19.5.......to win outright.

@mws

 Replying again I did do a little more research on the FIU-IU game. It was mentioned in the video I watched that while at James Madison and Elon, the worst Cignetti did in a home opener is win by 33. 33! Will that completely get me off this game now? Could be.

@mws

 On FIU as well as upset of the week.  Seems like everyone is focused on WV as upset of the week.  I need to do a deeper dive, but so far I can't come up with a reason Indiana is favored by 3 TD's.  Seem like similar teams both with crappy defenses last year.  Looking at the over 50.5 as well.  Indiana has a completely new system while FIU only loses their star receiver.  3 td's though seems like way too much.  Is it because they are giving IU too much credit for being in the big 10?

1st and goal at the 1......Penn St even gifted WIS a missed extra point.  Had WIS ML in a parlay.  WIS is now on my never again list.  Just horrendous playing.  Coach should be immediately fired for so many screw ups near the end zone.

Will we ever see OP again?

Saw he is questionable on the injury report.....is he playing today?

We'll bash you because you have no evidence of anything being fixed.  Just making dumb statements with nothing to back it up.  Pure conspiracy theories.  The only thing that can be 100% proven by your statement is you lack critical thinking skills.

@thorpe

 "Just because a bet wins quite frequently, doesn't mean it is profitable"

Agreed.  That is why I was considering mixing in more risky bets ie Illini ML as a dog last week as well.  Like I said in my original post, losing one of these with just huge favorites, it is hard to make up ground because it would take more than 2 more big fave parlay wins just to get back to break even after a loss.

I was looking to try something different this year, but I want to try to stay as consistent as I can with my strategy.  Maybe that is pointless who knows.

@snakebite44

 That is true about paying for the entire season but that is exactly the opposite of my strategy.  I'm going for low risk/low return this season.

@xMORTICIANx

 A option is setting up well again for Thursday (leaving off the BSU/CFLA and Ohio ST/MIN games).  Bur Friday there are a lot of close spreads.  Of course I could just skip Friday, but I probably wont.  Will probably go with .5U bet or less for Friday's slate.  Then of course Saturday there are more than enough huge spread games where I just have to decide how many of them do I take on one parlay.

Last week for week zero, I placed a 3 team ML parlay with 3 of the heavy favorites and it cashed 1u getting me about .4u in profit.  I was going to also include ILLINI ML (who was a TD dog), but thought I'd be taking on too much risk.  My profit would have been 1.7u if I had included Illini.  I guess my question is, am I going to have to take on some more riskier ML plays like ILLINI during the course of the season to make this work?  My thinking is if I happen to lose one of these parlays just using big favorites, it's gonna take over 2 of them just to get back to break even.

I don't expect to make a fortune with my strategy, but at the end of the season I want to see a profit.  Should I just 

A. continue with using strictly heavy ML favorites that I like

B. Mixing in some riskier plays (even dogs that I like) or

C. Creating 2 parlays each game set (if available), using both A and B?

Also, if I just choose option A, how many big ML faves is too much for 1 parlay?

It was the same guy who bet the World Series and cleaned up.  So it has some relevance.

Every big sporting event has huge bets being made.  I dont understand why people think a million dollar bet is such a big deal these days.  That being said with over 70% of the public on the Pats and I'm sure money on the east coast is still pouring in on the Pats, so the line could easily sustain a million dollar bet on the Rams.  There was also a $2 million bet on the Rams ML at MGM I believe. 

I guess $1.5 million is a lot to you.....

Well, on the positive side I hit another parlay last week.  The downside I was up a whopping $5 for the week.  Have yet to hit that big parlay for the season to lock in a profit.  So I'm 5-26 on parlays this season for a net of -$111.40.  Here are this weeks two parlays.  Basically going all in on my selections and not mixing it up:

#1:

TAM -3

NE -6 1/2

CHI -6 1/2

SEA +9

PHI -7

$30 to win $751.65

#2:

TAM -3

NE -6 1/2

CHI -6 1/2

SEA +9

PHI -7

JAX +3

$20 to win $820