rangersmets

IA ... 

Florida State TT over 101.5: MVSU has given up 100-plus four times to teams that play with pace: UAB, Murray St, Texas AM and Kansas State. It's been a rough few weeks for the Seminoles (6th in tempo, KenPom) and I think they take their frustrations out on CBB's worst team in a pre-Christmas shoot fest in Tallahassee. 0.75 units.

Just to clarify after that long-winded writeup, I have played 0.5 units on the University of Milwaukee Panthers +1. 

Looking ahead to Friday, I got the South Dakota State at Milwaukee game circled.

Coming off a terrific 14-6 season in the Horizon and 21 wins overall, a lot of people expected the Panthers to take another step this season. So far, the results have been mixed at best. They were the preseason pick to win the Horizon with 24 of a 44 possible first-place votes and while they did barely edge Rob Morris in their first conference game, the Panthers have largely underperformed. Defence has been the culprit as it often has with this team, sitting a miserable 345th overall at 90.8 PPG against. They have yet to post a road win, and haven't really come close to doing so. A recent 2-point home loss to a mediocre Indiana State is also concerning.

Still, I think this puts us in a good betting spot today as the Panthers face South Dakota State in what is a home tournament game at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee (Wisconsin and Villanova are also in the event). It's an opportunity in a home environment to turn the page and finally start living up to expectations before we get into the meat of the conference schedule. South Dakota St. has a new head coach and is not as good as in recent seasons but are by no means a gimme. Still, it's a game the Panthers SHOULD win in this setting. The betting line is basically a pick 'em at S. Dakota St -1.

I am going to make a 0.5 unit play on this game before calling it a night, but might double down on that depending on where the line goes in the morning.

@RUM151

 Great work buddy ... 

@RUM151

 Yep, pretty much no drama 112-82 

25-28-1 YTD, 1-0 last night ...

Just got one for tonight:

Georgia team total over 100.5: Bulldogs are going to push the pace (6th fastest tempo, KenPom) while Western Carolina is 60th themselves. Georgia has gone over the century mark 4 times already - including 120 plus against Tenn Tech and Morehead. Bulldogs may just get to 130 in this one. I'd play the game over but I don't really trust Western Carolina on the road. 0.75 units.

@football_007

 Yep, Norfolk and Grambling are in it too

Totter ... 

RUM ... 

@RUM151

I posted Sam Houston last night and the requisite reasons why. See my thread "Sam I am". I really don't need any credit for that, but just thought I'd clarify there were others on Sammy. Anyway, very good win for both of us then. As I said in the thread, I also played a good chunk of change on the ML too. It was a game I felt really, really strongly about. 

Wire to wire pretty easy win for Sam Houston in Corvalis, the ML play really helped too, putting me at +0.5 units for the season despite the sub-500 record of 25-28-1. I am still upset about that needless/foolish Little Rock play on Tuesday, I am just not going to force a play and recommend it unless I feel very strongly about it. I had huge confidence Sam Houston would get the money tonight and they did. Unless I have very sound reasoning, I am just going to sit it out on that day.

On to tomorrow ... maybe!!

Totter ... 

Florida ... 

0-1 yesterday after a failed hunch pick on a real bad ALR team; 24-28-1 YTD, time to get serious.

Getting one early for tomorrow:

Sam Houston +2.5: Going to take the better team, albeit on the road against Oregon State. Bearkats have a solid win over Wyoming and have done well on the road with a sweep of Idaho and giving a terrific OK State team all they could handle in Stillwater just a few weeks ago. Bearkats 41st in SOS compared to 301st for the Beavers, who have basically played at home against largely mediocre teams all season. Bearkats ranked 122nd in KenPom while Oregon St is 169th. Bearkats play fast, press all over the place and come at you with a lot of depth and I don't see the Beavers able to keep up for 40. Also making a smaller play on the ML but going a full 1 unit on Sam Houston ATS.

Totter ... sweep the board my friend ... 

24-27-1, -0.75 units after a very poor call on South Dakota St last night ...

Arkansas Little Rack +3.5: Two teams that have been terrible thus far in an OV conference matchup. Little Rock is the better team on paper and in fact were ranked 1st in the preseason coaches polls with 12 of the 20 first-place votes. Going to take the points and a shot on ALR finding their game against a Morehead team picked to finish around the middle of the pack. Gonna hold my nose and hope on this one. 0.5 units.

Ran into a Wyoming buzzsaw tonight. Knew I should have just sat this day out. 

Damn SportsBuff, decided to tail you on that one even though I could only get +10.5. Thank you sir!!!  

Totter ... yep it's a good night to lay low ...