Ramanujan

If it seems too good to be true then it probably is

I’m conflicted 

How much of this means anything useful because you see it all the time. Unless there is a reason why such apparent trends are happening then isn’t it just a consequence of our desire to see order where there is none?

I see claims that LAD are 12-0 on a Tuesday. Unless there is something superior in their planning for Tuesday games it is misleading rubbish

Thoughts?

I just read the below somewhere else:

?? NHL Trend Sheet (10/15 Slate)

?? Trend Records:
•86-31 (73.5%) — Home Fav Early Season Edge ??

•79-30 (72.5%) — Divisional Trap Spot ??

•264-128 (67.3%) — Teams off a Loss vs Conf Opponent ??

•216-84 (72%) — Home Team w/ Rest Edge ??

•17-4-2 (81%) — Blackhawks Over Trend ??

?

Trend Summaries:
•Sabres -110: Home favorites early in the season vs divisional foes with a poor record differential are 86-31 (73.5%).
•Sabres -110 (Trap Spot): Divisional home favs who struggled last year (<62% win pct) crush in this setup — 79-30 since 2006.
•Sabres -110 (Bounce Back): Teams off a loss vs same-conference opponents are 264-128 (67.3%) since 2020.
•Mammoth -230: Home favorites with a rest advantage and total = 6.5 are 216-84 (72%).
•Blackhawks/Blues o6: Chicago overs hit 17-4-2 (81%) when scoring =3 in their last game.

?

?? Active Plays (10/15)
?? Sabres -110
?? Mammoth -230
?? Blackhawks/Blues Over 6

This thread is a great read. You’ve breathed life back into a once great but recently fading forum. Do you usually post a summary of plays nearer game time (I realise lines may change from what you snagged)?

BOL

Also had Georgia So. Wow

The correct play was to kneel and take the FG. Good thing they didn’t 

I had ECU

I’m in Nepal - just finished ten day trek around Annapurna 

@DiamondJack

 I posted this in a separate thread

Replies = 0 LOL

Over 2.5 at +135

BTTS -104

In the WC to date Burundi has been involved in 14 goals in their first four home games

Kenya 14 in last three away games

Both teams now eliminated 

Worth a shot?

@pederson16

 Always had huge respect for you my man….. but there are no easy bets in MLB!

@MoPinkie

 What sucks is playing an 8 teamer

You won seven bets and lost one…. and ended up with $0

Parlays are a bookies best friend

@Ricodamus

Big props as you’re going well. But Regression to the mean is not what you said. It describes how an event which Is nominally a 50-50 shot will tend closer to that ratio as you progress

Starting out hot doesn’t mean you’ll go cold just because you were hot. What is likely is that you’ll go closer to 50-50 as you advance

So if you start 10-0 there isn’t necessarily 0-6 on the way. More likely you’ll go 40-40 in your next 80 bets leaving you at 50-40 overall. Much closer to the mean than 10-0!

You probably know this but a lot of people misunderstand it

Looking forward to your next plays

@Rollinondubz24

 Patience my dude. The stats are being crunched

Did you really lose $7k last week. Surely a typo?

Don’t play the Seattle game. No clue how a rookie ever debuts

if you want a play on that game pick the Angels TT over or under. At least you have some major league stats to work from

@weeble5672

 You got a lean on the Royals game winner?

@LVTruck

 Don’t play the Giants. Might win, might not but MLB is hard enough without pure speculation on a pitcher coming off the DL

There are better games to cap

Three blown saves in a row for Sewald

All multi run leads. All in less than one innings pitched

Under now in trouble too

I hate baseball 

Live betting also often has terrible juice like -115 or worse so you’re really fighting an uphill battle