pederson16

Doubling down ….. ‘Ville shooting subpar and not taking good looks just settling from 3, top 2 scorers barely got on the board, and still won 1H by 20. Think they buckle down in 2H

@ram,

I mean….. yes or no.

do I think they cover it? Maybe. But are my chances better? No. 
if you think they’ll cover the large spread then it’s more likely show over the game than a half. 
My opinion that they are >0.50 pts / possession better than JSU has a better chance to play out over a larger sample aka more possessions. I want more time for a cover of a # depending on possessions and if you look at the -22.5, it’s inflated, like most 1H lines always are, but in this case that detracts value since there will be less possession to cover a larger # so the Ville needs to be even better in the 1H to cover than the game. I’m on my phone typing so hope that’s clear but the math basically plays out at >.5625 pts/poss better to cover -22.5 in 1H vs >.475 pts/poss better to cover -38. On big #s like this, I’d rather have 2 halves of the better team than jus

Just so everyone is aware. FSU plays tomorrow vs Bama St. get ready to take the Noles and the over again large if line is <-30 and the total is <160.  Loucks is not gonna be satisfied and will want to play faster than game 1 and top their 108 pts. Watch. 

I don’t know if they can make this line high enough….50?  Both teams played to 90+ possessions in their first games and just freely ran with little to no D.  The ‘Ville is definitely better/greater >0.5 pts/possession than JSU so I feel like I’d take this line to -45. That’s some good value to me all things considered. Early on in season but after a 2 game sample size (1 game each) and similar talent disparity, I feel like this’ll be a similar 104-62ish type. The Ville can name their score so this will come down to just how motivated they are to put on a highlight show, which, I think they’ll want to beat down JSU worse than the Illini did. College/NIL kids  who are competitive and all about their egos care about stuff like that so that’s worth my $400. Still playing things small for first few weeks of season unless I see a big spot.