LippyLeans

Congrats on the big win with Aces. I was just about to post Lynx -6 too. Love em’ off a loss and love it even more with the Valks having just clinched. BOL 

I like the Citron play. NYL is a good matchup for her, but she hasn’t played that well in the first two games. Could see 20+ tonight if we just get a little regression. 

@MrFreedo

 FWIW, Allisha Gray career high in eFg%, points, rebounds, and assists. Compared to last year she is up 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist per game. The real improvement is in the consistency, which won’t show in averages. Less highs and lows from her than any other year. Atlanta has been able to depend on her scoring most nights and that’s the real improvement. Still, I expect Burton to get this one. 

I really don’t understand how Naz is the favourite for 6poy. She has started the last 11 games for Atlanta and probably continues to start for them the rest of the season. 

Shepard is getting similar attention for how she filled in with Collier hurt. 

Bonner has been surprisingly good off the bench in PHX, but that’s mostly just in the month of August. 

In my opinion, the best bench player over the course of the season has been Natisha Heideman. I don’t expect her to win the award, but I think she’s had the most consistent impact off the bench (0 starts) of any player this season. 

Nicely done. 

@westlake888

 FWIW, the longest win streak in WNBA regular season history is 18 for the Sparks. 13 would set a franchise record for Las Vegas, but the record is only 2 years old. I don’t know how much motivation there is for A’ja, Jackie, Chelsea, Stokes, and Becky to tie or break their own record. Beating Minnesota should be a much bigger goal. 

Ya, Aces lost by 53 to Minnesota and have won 11 straight since that game. 

@westlake888

 I appreciate the kind words, especially from one of the only cappers here whose posts I look for. 

That game is tough. Aces are clearly on a mission right now, but Dream have been underrated all season. I think the spot definitely favours Atlanta, but it’s just so difficult to bet against Las Vegas right now. With 11 straight wins, it’s odd to see them as 3.5 point dogs and you have to think that will be the popular choice tonight.

Aces surprisingly 2-0 in this series with this being the last game of the regular season between the two clubs. I say surprisingly because they picked up the first win when they were not playing very well. 

This is by far the biggest game for Atlanta until the playoffs. Last 6 games are vDAL, @CON, vLAS, vLAS, vSun, and @Sun. A win tonight and they could easily finish the season on a 10 game win streak. 

Aces are going to drop one before season end. They have Minnesota coming up after this game and their strong play basically started after that 50 point beatdown by Minnesota (or whatever it was. Something massive like that.). Really, all the other wins don’t mean much if they can’t compete with Minnesota so there’s plenty of fuel for the look ahead. 

I don’t know if I will bet this one, but if I do it’ll be Atlanta. I would also side with the under, if forced. Playoff feel and all that with both teams cracking down of late. 

It must be so annoying to constantly hear about how an opposing player is undefeated on your home floor. Unfortunately, there isn’t anything Connecticut can do to end that streak this season as Dallas went 2-0 @Sun earlier this season, but they can avoid a season sweep to Dallas with a win on the road tonight. 

Dallas has 9 wins. I refuse to believe they can sweep anyone this season, including the Sun who have been playing much better of late, especially on the defensive side of the ball which is why I’m trusting them tonight even on the road. 

Connecticut also has 9 wins but they are 4-6 their last ten opposed to wings 1-9. Health is also clearly on the side of Connecticut tonight. 

Sun may not even need heavy contributions from Tina tonight, but she’s a great safety valve. Geiselsoder is basically the only healthy big left for Dallas and Tina went for 27 in game 1 and 26 in game 2 when Dallas had more options to throw at her. 

CON Sun ML please and thank you. 

I have defended this Lynx team to many over the course of the season and I hate betting against them no matter who is healthy, but this is the biggest game of the season for NYL. I am on it too. BOL

Ouch. 

Paige Bueckers has not had back to back games under 20 since May 21st&24th. She has seven games of 20+ this season and 4 of them have come on the road, including a career high 35 @PHX, 21 in both wins @CON, and 20 in Washington (a game that went to OT). She would not have hit 20 in the Washington game without the extra 5 minutes, but what stands out to me is that in road games where Dallas has been competitive, Paige has been a big offensive factor. It is also worth noting that Arike played in that Washington game. Paige's 11 points and 27% from the field in the blowout loss @PHX are both her lowest marks since May 24th. Her 3 assists is her lowest mark on the road all season. The matchup looks really good to me.

She's had 7 or more assists in 5 of 9 road games this season and Chicago gives em up at the 4th highest rate. 

She has scored 12% of her points in the RZ and Sky are 11th defending that area.

She has scored 24% of her points above the break beyond the arc and Sky are 12th defending that area.

She has scored 36% of her points inside the arc and outside the paint. Sky are 10th defending that area. 

>72% of points scored in areas where Chicago is bottom 4 D. 

She has scored 23% of her points as the PNR ball handler. Chicago is 12th defending that action.

She has scored 14% of her points in transition. Chicago again 12th.

With another 16% coming at the line, as long as she gets a few calls tonight the 20 feels pretty inevitable.

Paige Bueckers o19.5 points @-105

risk: 1.26u

Paige Bueckers o6.5 assists @+170

risk: 0.6u

Nice hit. Go wings.

@Digitalkarma

 15/10/15 doesn’t do it for ya, huh? Tough guy to please. 

Either way, looking like a season high today with 15 already in the first half. 

@Digitalkarma

 BOL with Merc. AT has a history of playing well against Minnesota and there should be plenty on her shoulders again. 

Interesting note on McBride today. Since putting on a Lynx uniform in 2021, she has played 8 games in Phoenix. She has gone over 14.5 points in 7 of those 8 games and has 4 games of 20+ in that span. So far this season she has 8 games scoring over 14.5 points and 8 games scoring under. She is on a 4 game streak to the under coming into this game. It is perhaps worth noting that she has played 6 games on the road this season and has scored over 14.5 points in 5 of those 6 games. The matchup is not phenomenal, but it could be a whole lot worse. Ladder potential here for sure. 

@Digitalkarma

 Totally agreed. Reese questionable. If she sits the transition is a bit easier for Kamilla but Chicago loses their engine and I still feel good about the wager.  BOL 

6 straight covers for the Sky. 2-4 over that span with wins over LAS. 3rd game in 4 nights, 2nd of a back to back at home after 4 games on the road. They played Minnesota close a couple games ago and Reese was vocal afterwards about feeling robbed by the refs. 3 of their next four games are against the Lynx, including back to back games hosting them right after today’s game. 

On the wings side, as I have already said, I think they have had this game circled ever since losing back to back games to Chicago earlier this season. I’m sure they are aware of their “road woes”. This is a great opportunity to pick up a road win against someone other than Connecticut. If not tonight, it’s hard to see when it would happen. Their third and final game on this road stretch is @IND. Next few coming are @SEA, @GSV, @NYL etc… Much stiffer competition in my eyes. 

I don’t love that Dallas just picked up Haley Jones, but there’s really no good reason for her to play a lot tonight. Hopefully Koclanes doesn’t ruin this opportunity. I do however like that Kamilla is returning tonight. Chicago has found some momentum without her and even if she is a positive player, I’ve always had some doubts about the two big lineup and I think the shake up will stunt Chicago a bit tonight. Either way, Dallas is well equipped at this point in the season to match up however needed downlow between Yueru, Geiselsoder, Hines-Allen, and McCowan. Kamilla was a problem for them last time. Once again, I am forced to put some faith in Koclanes. I don’t want to, but even for him this shit should be simple. 

Dallas Wings ML @-110

risk: 1.32u

Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing. 

The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise the team was completely healthy. 

Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused team effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing. 

On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor.

Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly. 

Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. I literally watched Courtney Williams ask Dijonai about their only win when they only had one and Court said multiple times “y’all ain’t beat Dallas? What?” While dijonai was covering her face.  Dallas wants to prove something in this 2nd set of 11 games and the 5-3 record is one thing. Getting revenge on a team that beat you twice in back to back games would certainly help  

Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case. 

PHX MERCURY -6 @ (-110)

risk: 1.32u

@Digitalkarma

 I know you made the wager without realizing Copper and Sabally out, but I still think you are on the right side. 

Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing. 

The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise completely healthy. 

Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused season effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing. 

On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor tonight. Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly. 

Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case. 

BOL DK