iamhuge

Kirby Dumb decides not to kick a field goal. UGA loses.  1-4 on the week. 

app state d e d. Dismantled on the blue turf 1-3 on the week. 

UGA gakking 

Hawaii wins a belly laugher.  Air Farce couldn’t stop them.  1-2 on the week. 

USC defense is a horror show.  Illinois unstoppable and wins outright.  0-2 on the week. 

North Texas converts a 2 point conversion with under 2 minutes left in the game to get the cover.  Bad beat.  0-1 on the week. 

South Alabama TD on opening drive.  North Texas defense is Swiss cheese. 

appalachian state +16.5 BOISE STATE

Boise, Idaho: A land where the sky is blue, the turf is bluer, and the football takes strange bounces. But this Saturday, Appalachian State is rolling into town like a moonshine-fueled freight train, and Boise’s precious Smurf Turf may end up looking more like a patch of churned-up hash browns.

Yes, I know what you’re thinking: Appalachian State lost to Southern Miss, the Waffle House of college football. And yes, the Broncos just dropped 49 on Air Force.  Look closer.  Let’s start with Appalachian State’s offense, the Mountaineers are 13th in the nation in total offense at 520 yards per game. Against Charlotte, they posted 586 yards, more than North Carolina and Rice managed, and they only turned it over once. Against Southern Miss, they piled up 470 yards, but fumbled away the victory like a drunk at a slot machine. They had a bye week to clean things  up.

Quarterback AJ Swann (if healthy…yes I’m a little nervous about health of their QBs and might reduce my bet if #1 and #2 are not deemed healthy) or one of his interchangeable understudies will be slinging it to Jaden Barnes (8.0 catches per game, 112.3 yards per game — that's 5th in the country, and Dalton Stroman, who’s catching bombs like he’s reenacting Saving Private Ryan.  On the ground, Rashod Dubinion is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and every time he touches the ball, Idaho potatoes weep in fear. He's facing a Boise State defense that gives up 167.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks somewhere between “bad” and “do they even try?”

And the Boise defense overall? Let’s just say 98th in the country in yards allowed is not the stat you want tattooed on your program’s bicep. Against South Florida,  Boise gave up 34 points. And even in their “impressive” win over Air Force, the Falcons still racked up 514 yards of offense, which is like letting someone steal your car but congratulating yourself for locking the glove box.

Meanwhile, Appalachian State’s defense is legitimately stubborn:

8th in rushing defense (61.7 ypg)

5th in tackles for loss

15th in sacks per game

The Mustangs are going to struggle moving the ball on the ground and their QB will see a tough pass rush that he hasn’t yet faced.   This isn’t the game where you want to test a gimpy QB against a defense that’s licking its chops and chasing TFLs like it's hunting season in the Blue Ridge.

Let’s not forget the off-the-field mojo. This is App State’s first game since the passing of legendary former coach Shawn Clark, who once blocked a field goal to upset Michigan and ruined more Big Ten weekends than daylight savings time. 65 players on the roster were either recruited by or played for Clark. They will be inspired this week. 

Idaho should stick to exporting root vegetables and let the real mountain men handle the football.  The Statue of Liberty play is D E D.  I’m going to drink from the mason jar and eat some squirrel when I get the backdoor cover with all of the points the Mountaineers are getting. 

Maximum respect...good luck

FSU gakking...tough to go against these home teams on Fri nights

GEORGIA -2.5 alabama

Remember all those days of rat poison and Kirby Dumb and Tua coming off the bench in overtime.  Wow…isn’t it fun when Georgia plays Bama?  There are so many reasons why Georgia is going to win this game, probably not as many as to why Alabama will.  You have to like the home team in this spot with the experienced coach and the QB who has already played under the big spotlight.  On the other hand, you have a coach fudging his duds wondering if he’s going to get fired and you have a QB Ty Simpson who has already played like Homer Simpson. 

Last time Bama went on the road in a hostile environment, they got completely smoked by Florida State.  Their win over ULM meant nothing other than making their stats look good.  So if you want to compare stats head to head, you have to throw this game out the window.  Alabama’s win over Wisconsin, at first glance, seemed impressive.  That is until last week when a mediocre Maryland team dismantled the Badgers in similar fashion.  Both the Dawgs and the Tide are coming off of a bye week,  and one would have to think that the extra preparation time will flop in Kirby’s favor. 

Georgia already owns a nice scalp by taking down a really good Tennessee team on the road.  Their defense smothered their lesser opponents in their other 2 contests. 

But this Saturday, inside the red-and-black fury of Sanford Stadium, expect the Bulldogs to finally drop the anvil on the Tide.  Alabama is traveling into Athens with a questionable and a quarterback who — when things get dicey — plays like he's thinking “D’oh!” before every throw.  Ty Simpson is more “Homer” Than “Heisman”.  Against Florida State — the only true road environment Bama’s faced this season — he completed just 53% of his passes and a few wtf .  Alabama's road record under Kalen DeBoer? 2-5. Not good.  Alabama ranks 83rd in penalties per game — just imagine what that looks like after a few false starts when UGA’s defensive front starts barking.

Here’s the rub: Alabama can’t run the ball. They’re averaging just 123.6 rushing yards per game (103rd nationally). That’s basically Milhouse trying to break tackles. Jam Miller may be back, but unless he can teleport through a D-line, it’s not going to help against a Georgia run defense that forces third-and-longs like it’s handing out coupons at the Kwik-E-Mart.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road?  You lose..that’s what happens. 

Gunner Stockton may not be flashy but he’s been very efficient.  . He threw for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns in Knoxville, showed composure on fourth down, and — most importantly — kept the Georgia offense on schedule. He’s backed by a ground game averaging 209 rushing yards per game, a massive improvement from last year’s 124.4.

Zachariah Branch and London Humphreys are deep threats who should eat against a Tide defense that ranks 126th in pass rush.

Kirby Smart’s record vs. Alabama isn’t good (1-6), but believe it or not, it is the first time in eight games he gets the Tide at home.  Georgia will run the ball, hit the deep shots, and wear down a Tide team that’s already shown it can’t hang away from home. Expect Sanford Stadium to be loud and punishing.  Laying 2.5 on the Dawgs…woof woof!

Key USC Players Currently Out or Sidelined

Ja'Kobi Lane (WR): Out indefinitely with an "inconclusive" upper body injury, his return date is uncertain.

Chasen Johnson (CB): Will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury.

Alex Graham (Nickel): Has not made his debut due to an injury before the season started.

Elijah Paige (LT): Left the game against Michigan State in the first half, and his status for future games is uncertain.

Zacharyus Williams (TE/WR): Suffered an injury against Georgia Southern and is expected to be out for at least a few weeks.

Do you like to read about why people justify their positions and explain their handicapping?

Or do you just want to see their picks without analysis? 

hawaii +5.5 AIR FORCE

There’s a theory that when the Rainbow Warriors leave their friendly island, they play like crap on the road.  It’s not a theory actually, it’s a fact.  Over the last 20 years, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors football team had a home record of 82 wins and 51 losses, and an away record of 35 wins and 90 losses.  So if you’re the Air Farce Falcons and Fisher Deberry was your coach, you’re probably thinking that he will expect Hawaii Coach Timmy Chang is going to make them an egg roll and make them an offer.  Fisher DeBerry isn’t the Air Force coach anymore and his claims about his monochromatic secondary lacking speed, while inflammatory, were not untrue.  While much has changed since then, the one thing that hasn’t is that the Falcons can’t play defense.  Against FBS competition, they are giving up 49 points per game this season.  Utah State ran all over Air Force for 5.5 yards per carry and Boise State was having a field day, making a crazy 9.1 yards per carry against the swiss cheese Falcon defense.   Their defense is less "Top Gun Academy" and more "Goose's Funeral." That's not a defensive unit; it's a welcome mat for offenses.  The punch line?  With this crap defense and Hawaii’s potent offense (QB stud Micah Alejado is healthy) the backdoor cover will be WIDE open.

If you've ever watched a late-night college football game involving Hawaii, you know that logic goes on vacation and comes back with a floral shirt and a Mai Tai.    Air Force runs the triple option, which in Top Gun terms, is like a pilot who only flies in circles. It's predictable, it's slow, and it's a great way to get shot down by a MiG-28. They're dead last in time of possession, clocking a shockingly low 24:37 per game. That's not a football game; that's a quick trip to the snack bar.

Hawaii, on the other hand, is going to possess the ball like McGarrett trying to get a confession out of a suspect. They are 47th in the nation in time of possession (31:17 per game), which means they'll wear down the Falcons' defense with long, soul-crushing drives. Air Force will be so confused by the passing game that they'll be looking for a runway instead of a wide receiver.

Hawaii’s offense, while not exactly a Ferrari, is averaging 73 plays per game (16th nationally). If you give a team that many opportunities against a defense with all the structural integrity of a sandcastle, they are going to accidentally score.

Hawaii’s Alejado is incredibly difficult to keep down and he’s great at moving the chains and keeping drives alive….just ask Stanford.  This makes them the ultimate backdoor-cover king.   Air Farce, meanwhile, folds under pressure like a bad poker hand, giving up 13.5 PPG in the final frame against FBS opponents.   This isn't a team that can close out a game; it's a team that sees the finish line and trips over its own shoelaces. Hawaii will come on stronger than a five-o’clock shadow, and by the time Air Force figures it out, the game will be over and I’ll be walking over to the cash window.  Taking the road dog with the points.

south alabama +12.5 NORTH TEXAS

Someone left the back door open.  Vegas oddsmakers clearly left their Spidey-senses at home. There’s no other explanation for the 12.5-point spread in favor of North Texas over South Alabama. It’s like they were watching a different sport entirely. Because anyone who’s watched these teams in 2025 knows this spread is more inflated than Thor’s ego in Ragnarok. South Alabama isn’t just going to cover this number—they’re going to make bettors feel like they’ve been gifted an Infinity Stone.

Let’s start with the South Alabama Jaguars. The Jags are averaging 389 yards per game, including a gritty 162 rushing yards, despite battling injuries that would make even Tony Stark wince. Last week, they outgained Coastal Carolina by 126 yards, but bad snaps from a backup center made the offense look like Groot learning how to use a microwave.

Good news: Center Malachi Preciado is back, and the timing couldn’t be better. With him anchoring the line, expect fewer botched plays and more methodical drives, the kind that chew clock and cover spreads like it’s their job. This offense doesn’t need to be explosive—they just need to be the tortoise, not the hare.

But the real comedy show? North Texas’s defense.  . Against the run? They’ve were gashed like Hawkeye’s haircut in Endgame. Army  steamrolled them for 5.7 yards per carry, including a humiliating 387 rushing yards allowed last week.  That’s called taking your manhood away.  Against Tarleton State and Kansas State, Army didn’t even come close to that performance.  It’s a testament to the fact that the Mean Green defense does not have tackling in their NIL contract.

Enter Keenan Phillips, South Alabama’s own version of Quicksilver. Last week: 13 carries, 104 yards. That's 8.0 yards per tote against a decent defensive Coastal Carolina front. Now he gets to face a Mean Green unit that tackles like they're trying not to wrinkle their uniforms. South Alabama’s run game will torch them like the Hulk smashing through a puny wall, eating clock while they do so.

The yet unveiled stat that makes this game candy from babies is the fact that North Texas leads all of FBS with a +10 turnover gain.  South Alabama is dead last in FBS with 5 lost fumbles.  Remember…mean reversion.   If South Alabama plays a clean game and North Texas isn’t as lucky with turnovers, this game gets much much closer.

But here’s where this game turns into a beautiful, soul-stirring end credits scene—the backdoor cover.  South Alabama is the Doctor Strange of the underdog world. In two games this year as a 12.5-point or greater underdog, they’re 2-0 against the spread, including a 2-point heartbreaker to Tulane that had Vegas bookies nervously fidgeting like Peter Parker at his first Avengers meeting. When the game is technically “over,” and North Texas is running out the clock, that’s when the Jags strike. A meaningless late touchdown? Ha ha…that’s a ticket to the ticket window.  South Alabama, armed with a healthy offensive line, an elite ground game, and a defense that actually tries.   Barking with the road dog and on the Jags, with the points.

usc  -6.5 ILLINOIS

You gotta love this Trojan offense.   You have to love their offensive firepower.   It is a wrecking machine tallying 52.5 points per game.  Illinois might want to pre-file an insurance claim before kickoff.  Jayden Maiava Is Cooking Like a Five-Star Chef at a Waffle House.  The USC quarterback is turning secondaries into smoldering debris. He’s completing 70% of his passes, averaging 12.7 yards every time he throws, and sports a perfect 9:0 touchdown-to-pick ratio. His QBR? An alien-like 208.8, tops in the country.

And if you think you can just sit back and defend the pass, Waymond Jordan and the Trojans’ ground game are averaging 7.1 yards per carry—essentially turning every handoff into second-and-three.  Illinois' Last Game Looked Like a Crime Scene.    Let’s revisit the horror film that was Illinois vs. Indiana. 63–10. The Illini gave up 579 yards. Indiana—INDIANA, a program best known for basketball and Bob Knight tantrums—scored touchdowns with such ease that local authorities were considering making it a mercy rule case.  Illinois ran the ball 20 times for 2 yards. Let that sink in. That’s 0.1 yards per carry. You’d get more progress from trying to run through wet concrete.  They went 1-for-10 on third downs, and their offensive line looked like it was playing on roller skates. Luke Altmyer spent most of the game in a fetal position while the Indiana front four auditioned for the WWE.

USC averages 7.9 yards per play.

Illinois allowed 8.0 yards per play against Indiana.

Illinois has given up 16 sacks, and USC has 16 sacks on defense.

USC doesn’t just rely on one guy. This offense is deep:  Makai Lemon: 311 yards, 2 TDs.  Waymond Jordan: Averaging 8.7 yards per carry vs. MSU with 157 yards.  Ja’Kobi Lane and Lake McRee: Big-play machines who feast on soft zones—and Illinois’ defense is basically made of sponge cake right now.

While USC just knocked off a ranked and undefeated Michigan State team by two touchdowns, Illinois is being described by their own fans as “humiliated,” “hopeless,” and “back in the abyss.”   This team is not only physically beat up—they are spiritually broken.

The Song Girls will be shakin those pom poms. This spread should be double digits, but Vegas is giving you a gift at -6.5.  USC is going to score and score and Illinois just won’t be able to keep up.  Laying the points on the Trojans.

Here are my picks (in bold) for this week... home team is in CAPS.....Which ones do you like?  Analysis to follow...

usc -6.5  ILLINOIS

south alabama +12.5 NORTH TEXAS

hawaii +5.5 AIR FORCE

GEORGIA -2.5 alabama

appalachian state +16.5  BOISE STATE

Colorado scores a TD with less than 2 minutes left in the game.  Too bad  3-2 on the week  8-7 ytd ATS 53% 

Indiana wins by a zillion.  3-1 on the week. 

Coastal plays a clean game and  wins outright.  You sees?  2-1 on the week.