HooAlum

@HooAlum

 Late night is still l;a strong Utah play but the sharp indicators pulled back.

Utah (7.5):line movement, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, and the largest SKS of the day (that includes OU-Texas)

@HooAlum

Likely last update for 7/7:30 games.  I will come back in for something on late night in Provo.  That is a big one so we will see if it keeps the large play (if Texas can't pull this out- "2 points is the new "3" so I do nto feel good as this has OT written all over it and 2 points, not 3 becomes the key number and 2.5 becomes a loser even with  Texas win.  Also note that LSU-South Carolina is now on the board with the Tigers the call.

Texas A&M (2 units): sharp indicators

Kansas (3 units): sharp indicators

Southern Cal (5.5 units): SKS, sharp indicators, bye week return

Auburn (2 units):  high handle road favorite, sharp indicator and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite

LSU (3 units): low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

BYU (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite. lopsided wagering, reverse movement 

Utah (9.5 units): SKS, line movement, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

@HooAlum

 30 minutes to go

Colorado (5 units): reverse movement, high handle road favorite sharp indicators

Kansas State (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Indiana (1 unit): Sharp Indicators

Texas (8 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS, sharp indicators (due to the jumping the fence) 

Arkansas (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Giving an early update on afternoon games given a unique component.  

The line just jumped the fence back in the Red River Shootout and that has a HUGE impact.  The steam for OU goes away at the same time it reignites a strong SKS for Texas.  We are presently an 8 unit play for Texas.  Please watch the line.  You might want to wait on this one and bet the favorite 30 minutes out.  It looks like the Horns but this could change.  Vegas is chasing it but I bet they land on the side that is best for them (that's the theory at least).

I'll try to update in a couple of hours closer to game time.  The other 3:30 games presently look like this:

Colorado (6 units): line movements, reverse movement, high handle road favorite sharp indicators

Kansas State (3 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Indiana-Oregon (No Bets): No Indicators

CHANGE (due to the jumping the fence) Texas (8 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS, sharp indicators

Arkansas (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 A 2-1 night!!!! where the big play failed spectacularly so not a good night.  Nice to get a couple of 1 unit wins but that won't make up for the rout in Denton TX.  Let's hope for a better day.  Here are the 2 noon games. I have one caveat that has an impact for you to monitor.

Alabama (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return.  But a big note.  Monitor.  If the consensus goes from (-3) to (-3.5) that will signal reverse movement and another unit toward the Tide.  But of course try to catch the lagging books on that score and grab the (-3).  DK and Caesars still have it at that level though at -120 while the 3.5s are all at -105.

Ohio State (1 unit): sharp indicator outweighs high road favorite handle 

@HooAlum

Well, the start of the week is as Pete Campbell said in Mad Men, not great Bob.  Hate starting off a week with a bad loss but it is what it is.  Hope to make it up tomorrow.  Want to take an extra note on the Red River Shootout flipping due to the line jumping the fence due to Mateer being listed as probable.  It changes again if they announce Mateer is not playing and it goes back so monitor it.

Alabama (1 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators and bye week return

Ohio State (2 units): Sharp indicators outweigh high handle road favorite

Colorado (2 units): line movements, reverse movement, high handle road favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Kansas State (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Oregon (3 units): sharp indicators

CHANGE (due to the jumping the fence) Oklahoma (6 units): line movement, steam, sharp indicators

Arkansas (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

Texas A&M (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Kansas (2 units): sharp indicators

Southern Cal (5.5 units): SKS, sharp indicators, bye week return

Auburn-Georgia (No Bet): low ticket favorite balances high handle road favorite and bye week return

BYU (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite. lopsided wagering, reverse movement outweighs sharp indicator, line movement

Utah (9.5 units): SKS, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

@HooAlum

 Tonight's games.  Likely last update for them

North Texas (6.5 units): Steam, sharp indicators, SKS outweighs bye week return

Colorado State (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Washington (1 unit):  low handle favorite

@JJWoods

 yes, the line is very important (especially for SKS).  I take the present line at the time of posting but shop if there are multiple choices (e.g. if DK is at -3.5 and FD is at -3 at similar -110 vig you would be foolish not to take the better option).  Yes, that means you may not get  the lines before something like steam happens.  (of course you would not know the steam will happen until the line moves).  If I see a line moving in some books and you need to lock in, I wil make a note that you might want to do so.  Lines move and I try to post a final about 30 minutes before the kickoff times on Saturday and will alert people if I will be unable to do so.  

Thursday Night Update

North Texas (7.5 units): Steam, sharp indicators, SKS outweighs bye week return

Colorado State (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Rutgers (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Alabama (2 units): low handle favroite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators nd bye week return

Ohio State (1 unit): Sharp indicators outweigh high handle road favorite

Colorado (2 units): line movements, reverse movement

Oregon (2 units): sharp indicators

Texas (4 units): low ticket, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS outweighs sharp indicators and line movement

Tennessee (2 units): low ticket and handle favroite outweighs sharp indicators

Southern Cal (4.5 units): SKS, sharp indicators, bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering

Georgia (3 units): low ticket favroite, sharp indicators outweighs high handle road favorite and bye week return

Utah (5 units): SKS, low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

The strong season continues.  I have never seen such a strong start and certainly never started the year with 6 straight winning weeks (7 if you include the 1 game in week 0).  As such, I am very wary every week.  There will inevitably be a losing week at some point just as a warning.  The goal is to grind out wins over a period of time, not to get rich quick.  So far the big best have been pretty good and hopefully that continues.

WEEKLY RECORD: 9-6

WEEKLY REVENUE: 69.4 units on 52 wagered

YEARLY RECORD: 51-34 (60%)

YEARLY REVENUE: 344.1 units on 274 wagered (25.58% profit)

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

West Coast Body Clock: 100%

SKS: 77.78%

Sharp Indicator: 67.74%

Lopsided wagering: 66.67%

High Handle Road Favorite: 66.67%

Low Ticket Favorite: 53.66%

Over/Under Squeeze: 52%

Line Movement: 51.43%

Low Handle Favorite: 51.22%

Steam: 50%

Bye Week Return: 50%

Reverse Movement: 14.29%

********

WAY TOO EARLY Week 7 Games

Alabama (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Ohio State (3 units): low handle favorite, sharp indicators

Oregon (5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Texas (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, SKS outweighs line movement and sharp indicator

Arkansas-Tennessee (No Bet): low handle favorite balance red by sharp indicator

Southern Cal (3.5 units): sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering

Utah (5 units): SKS, sharp indicators

@HooAlum

Late Night pair

Duke (5 units) - line movement, sharp indicator, low ticket favorite outweighs high handle road favorite

Fresno State (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

Early Evening Update

Houston-Texas tech (No Bet) - line movement, low handle favroite, bye week return balanced by sharp indicators

Minnesota (2 units) - Over/under squeeze

Colorado-TCU (NO Bet)lopsided wagering balanced by sharp indicators

Texas A&M (4 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, low handle favorite, sharp indicators

@Michaelnapsalot

I wish it was a zero bet, but unfortunately it only moved it back to 2 unit Kentucky play from 3 and that is looking like an L.  however, the good news is that Clemson handle flipped which was nice as the UNC benefit gave way to a Clemson indicator moving it back to a 4 unit play and making a better winner than posted.

@HooAlum

Midday Update (and btw Go Bearcats - still a quarter to go so hold on!)

Washington (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Miami(Oh) (1 unit) - low handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

UCLA (4 units) - high handle road favorite, reverse movement, over/under squeeze

Texas (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs line movement 

Alabama (5 units) - low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicator

Notre Dame (1 unit) - line movement

Nebraska (5 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, sharp indicator

@HooAlum

Last morning update

Noon

Kentucky (3 units): line movement, over/under squeeze

Cincinnati (8 units): heavy sharp indicators, SKS, low handle favroite

Wisconsin (2 units): sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite lopsided wagering

Clemson (2 units): low handle favroite, sharp indicators outweighs  over/under squeeze outweighs high road handle favorite (grab at -14 if you can as most books are moving to -14.5)

@Brewmeister

 it has moved to 16.5 so catching at 15.5 is good

@HooAlum

Overnight numbers are in.  I may be able to squeeze in an update for the noon games in an hour or so.  As I said, I really want good numbers for that Iowa St-Cincinnati game as it is the big early play.  Caveat as always, you see that line move to Iowa State favored call it off. 

Noon

Kentucky (3 units): line movement, over/under squeeze

Cincinnati (8 units): heavy sharp indicators, SKS, low handle favroite

Wisconsin (2 units): sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite lopsided wagering

Clemson (3 units): low handle favroite, sharp indicators outweighs  over/under squeeze

Midday

Washington (2 units): low ticket and handle  favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator, bye week return 

Northern Illinois (1 unit): high handle road favorite

UCLA (2 units): reverse movement, high handle road favroite, over/under squeeze outweighs sharp indicator

Texas (3 units):  low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs line movement

Alabama (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering. sharp indicator

Notre Dame (1 unit):  line movement, low handle favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Nebraska (7 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement, lopsided wagering

Evening

Houston-Texas tech (No bet): bye week return, low handle favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Minnesota (2 units): over/under squeeze

Miami (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, bye week return

Colorado (4 units): lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Texas A&M (6 units): sharp indicators, line movement, low ticket favorite

Late night

Duke (7 units): low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Fresno State (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Here is the late night Friday update. 2 new games with UCLA and Duke 

Noon

Kentucky (3 units): line movement sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite and lopsided wagering

Cincinnati (8 units): heavy sharp indicators, SKS, low handle favroite

Wisconsin (2 units): sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite lopsided wagering

North Carolina-Clemson (No Bet): high handle road favorite and over/under squeeze outweighs shape indicators

Midday

Washington (3 units): low ticket and handle  favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return 

Northern Illinois (1 unit): high handle road favorite

UCLA (2 units): reverse movement, high handle road favroite, over/under squeeze outweighs sharp indicator

Texas (5 units):  low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs line movement

Alabama (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Notre Dame (1 unit):  line movement, low handle favorite lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Nebraska (9 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement, sharp indicators

Evening

Houston-Texas tech (No bet): bye week return, low handle favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Minnesota (1 unit): over/under squeeze outweighs sharp indicator

Miami (5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, lopsided wagering, bye week return

Colorado (3 units): lopsided wagering, sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Texas A&M (7 units): heavy sharp indicators, line movement, low ticket favorite

Late night

Duke (7 units): low ticket favroite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators outweighs road high handle

Fresno State (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Friday afternoon and this week is shaping up to be crazy as the unit levels are heightened.  The Texas A&M game has more sharp indicators than I may have ever seen (it is also why I think Vegas is frantically raising the spread in an effort to play catchup).  

PSA:  I will update probably later tonight and hopefully early tomorrow morning but I am OUT until the 3:30 games at the earliest (and those will be tight) and these numbers seem very volatile as evidenced by the excessive sharp analysis so feel free to hold back at the noon games if you feel uncomfortable as I already can tell that late numbers will greatly affect it.  I will report what the final numbers show so it could cause some disjointed feelings if they cut against the Friday and early Saturday reports.  I apologize in advance, especially with an appetizing Cincinnati call over Iowa State at noon (as a note, if the line jumps the fence back to Iowa State pull out immediately as all indicators will dramatically change)

PSA over and onto the games

West Virginia & BYU still hasn't to met the handle level for tonight but watching closely

Noon

Kentucky (3 units): line movement sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite and lopsided wagering

Cincinnati (7 units): heavy sharp indicators, SKS

Wisconsin (2 units): sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite lopsided wagering

North Carolina-Clemson (No Bet): high handle road favorite and over/under squeeze outweighs shape indicators

Midday

Washington (2 units): low ticket and handle  favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return and sharp indicator

Northern Illinois (1 unit): high handle road favorite

Texas (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Alabama (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering sharp indicator

Boise State (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs line movement, low handle favorite and lopsided wagering

Nebraska (4 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite

Evening

Texas Tech (1 unit): bye week return, shape indicators outweigh high handle road favorite

Minnesota (1 unit): over/under squeeze outweighs sharp indicator

Miami (6 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, bye week return

Colorado (3 units): lopsided wagering, sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Texas A&M (8 units): heavy sharp indicators, line movement, low ticket favorite

Late night

Fresno State (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Solid overall week where 3 of the 4 big plays came home (sorry for you Penn State bettors).  I say this from time to time but remember, the goal is the long play.  The indicators are hot but there WILL be losing weeks and you never know when that will occur.  This upcoming week seems a lot heavier than normal as 13 games have already hit the requisite handle so hopefully it is not this week.

WEEKLY RECORD: 9-5

SEASON RECORD: 42-28 (60%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 57.9 units on 43.5 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 274.7 units on 222 wagered (23.74% profit)

*****

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

West Coast Body Clock: 100%

SKS: 75%

Lopsided Wagering: 75.0%

Sharp Indicators: 66.67%

Low Ticket Favorite: 55.88%

Over/Under Squeeze: 50%

Steam: 50.0%

Low Handle Favorite: 48.39%

Line Movement: 48.0%

Bye Week Return: 28.57%

Reverse Movement: 0%

******

VERY Early Indicators (things can and will change but it gives an early window to the weekend)

Kentucky (2 units): sharp indicators, over/under squeeze outweighs lopsided wagering and low handle favorite

Michigan (1 unit): line movement shape indicators outweigh over/under squeeze

Clemson (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh over/under squeeze

Washington (2 units): low ticket and handle on favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Texas (1 unit): low handle favorite

Alabama (2 units): low ticket and handle on favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Notre Dame (2 unit): sharp indicators

Nebraska (7 units): low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Texas Tech (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Minnesota-Ohio State (no bet): No indicators

Miami (2 units): sharp indicators

Texas A&M (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement, sharp indicators