HooAlum

@HooAlum

 I just noticed my Saturday evening post did not take, just the opening commentary on the loss in Austin.  I apologize as sometimes when I cut and paste and change things up slightly the edits aren't added.  No big sweeping changes though the unit count went up slightly in Provo but no calls changed.  Still adds up to a down week but Utah really saved the overall week from being slightly down to be REALLY down.  Of course I had already telegraphed that one as the play of the week so people knew to act on it big.  Oh and there was a question what data sources I use.  The questioner likely drew from DK's easily accessible public ticket and handle counts.  They are valuable but only use it as part of a weighted average among several sources, thus DK can have a ticket count of 60% but the overall is 43% (like last week).  I just do not want to put too much emphasis on one data source but that is a reasonable guide if you only want to rely on a single free source.

WEEKLY RECORD: 7-9

OVERALL RECORD: 90-64 (58.44%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 53.2 units on 57.5 wagered 

OVERALL REVENUE: 621.5 units on 523.5 wagered (18.72% profit)

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INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

West Coast Body Clock: 100%

Lopsided Wagering: 65.22% (never seen it this high)

SKS: 65.12%

Sharp Indicator: 62.59%

Low Handle Favorite: 56.25%

Low Bet Favorite: 56.10%

Bye Week Return: 54.55%

Steam: 50%

Line Movement: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 40%

Reverse Movement: 30.77% (never seen it so low - I am worried that my data sourcing is not good here as it is only the second year using this method)

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WAY TOO EARLY Weekend analysis (which always seems to boost the favorites)

Memphis (1 unit): sharp indicator outweighs lopsided wagering

Indiana (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweigh home underdog with low handle

Georgia (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Texas Tech (4 units): SKS, mild west coast body clock, low handle favorite outweighs sharp indicator and bye week return

Texas A&M (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweigh home underdog with low handle

Oregon (7 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Vanderbilt (2 units): sharp indicators

Virginia (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweigh sharp indicators

Alabama (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Notre Dame (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

@HooAlum

 Here we are for the evening.  Bad day overall thanks to the half point loss in Austin.

@HooAlum

 Afternoon games.  Some adjustments but not a lot of action as we are looking at a split decision for the early bigger games of Texas and Miami (though the ESPN Bet -6.5 line is giving me hope in the latter).  Once again the week will live or die in Provo.

Maryland-Indiana (No Bet): low handle favorite balanced by over/under squeeze

Texas Tech (3 units): low ticket,  sharp indicators flipped to the Red Raiders (warning this is by the slimmest of margins from flipping back so temper expectations) outweighs home low handle underdog

CHANGE: Florida (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite  

Virginia (2 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs Sharp indicator

@HooAlum

Here is Saturday Morning report and the final one for the noon games.  Right now all eyes are on gameday in Provo with a very large play shaping up.

Penn State (3 units): reverse movement, over/under squeeze, Outweighs sharp indicator

Air Force (2 units): sharp indicator outweighs low handle home underdog

Texas (4.5 units): low handle favorite, sharp indicator, SKS

NEW GAME: Miami (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicator

Navy-North Texas (No Bet): low handle favorite, lopsided wagering balanced by sharp indicator

Indiana (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Texas Tech (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Florida-Georgia (No Bet): No indicators

Virginia (2 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs Sharp indicator

NEW GAME: Arizona (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs line movement, sharp indicators

South Carolina (4 units): sharp indicators 

Tennessee (1.5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs SKS

NC State (2 units) sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Southern Cal (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweighs low handle home underdog

Utah (12.5): line movement, low ticket favorite, sharp indicator, SKS

@HooAlum

 Here are the late Friday picks for Saturday.  Likely will update tomorrow by start time.

Penn State (6 units): reverse movement, over/under squeeze, sharp indicator Outweighs low handle favorite and lopsided wagering

Air Force (2 units): sharp indicator

Texas (5.5 units): low handle favorite, sharp indicator, SKS

Navy-North Texas (No Bet): low handle favorite, lopsided wagering balanced by sharp indicator

Indiana (1 units): low ticket favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Texas Tech (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Georgia (2 units): low ticket favorite

Virginia (3 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs Sharp indicator

South Carolina (1 unit): sharp indicator 

Tennessee (3.5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs SKS

Georgia Tech (1 unit): low handle favorite

Southern Cal (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweighs low handle home underdog

Utah (10.5): line movement, low ticket favorite, shaper indicator, SKS

@HooAlum

 Memphis remains the play. Fanduel and a few other places are offering the hook

@HooAlum

Poor start to the week so hopefully will recover.  Here is the midday Friday update

NEW GAME: Memphis (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

Penn State (3 units): reverse movement, over/under squeeze outweighs sharp indicator

Air Force (2 units): sharp indicator

Texas (5.5 units): low handle favorite, sharp indicator, SKS

North Texas (1 unit): low handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

Indiana (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Texas Tech (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Georgia (2 units): low ticket favorite

Virginia (3 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs Sharp indicator

NEW GAME : Ole Miss (2 units): sharp indicator 

Tennessee (3.5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs SKS

NEW GAME: Georgia Tech (1 unit): low handle favorite

Southern Cal ( 3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweighs low handle home underdog

Utah (10.5): line movement, low ticket favorite, shaper indicator, SKS

@HooAlum

 Tulane still the call but bumped to 5 units: low ticket and low handle favorite, reverse movement

Nice call Brewmeister!

@HooAlum

 Well, had the first losing week thanks to some big losses dragging down the overall 10-9 record.  I know folks really only play the big games so likely was worse than the reporting I am giving today.  Hope for better things this week.

WEEKLY RECORD: 10-9

WEEKLY REVENUE: 58.9 units on 61.5 units wagered

YEARLY RECORD: 83-55 (60.14%)

YEARLY REVENUE:  568.3 units on 466 wagered (21.95% profit)

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INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Early West Coast Body Clock: 100%

Sharp Indicators: 64.48%

Lopsided Wagering: 64.29%

SKS: 63.89%

Low Ticket Favorite: 56.94%

Low Handle Favorite: 55.71%

Bye Week Return: 55.00%

Line Movement: 51.02%

Steam: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 42.86%

Reverse Movement: 30%

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WAY TOO EARLY LOOK At WEEK 10 (these WILL change but gives you a hint)

Tulane (3 units) low ticket and handle favorite

Penn State-Ohio State (No Bet): sharp indicators balanced by over/under squeeze

Air Force (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh lopsided wagering

Texas (3.5): low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS

North Texas (2 units): sharp indicators

Indiana (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite, sharp indicators outweighs over/under squeeze

Georgia (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Virginia (6 units): low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

Tennessee (5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Southern Cal (5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Utah (9.5 units): low ticket favorite, SKS, sharp indicators

@NR114

 I wish the tells had been more clear.  The steam may have occurred at some books but the consensus was still 4.5 which was well within the bounds of the week's fluctuation (had it gone to 3.5 on the consensus I would have called steam).

The out of shack ranking to line (Oklahoma over a FG at home but lower ranked) was the main item pushing it. Entering this week that indicator was hitting at 69.7%.  After OU (and Iowa State) today it falls to 63.89%. Still really good but far form infallible (infallible would be west coast body close - UCLA getting shoved back to bed today anyone???)

@HooAlum

 Well, staring the first losing week of the season in the face and the big plays were down  - Indiana and Va Tech were winners but OU, Iowa St and Texas were big losers so the big plays which is what people care about were down this week.  The wins came from the grind it our 3 and 4 unit games like Iowa, Vandy, SDSU, Nebraska and that was not enough. Hope for better luck next week, especially on the big plays.

@kidd22

 yes, good catch.  That did center the other line movement earlier in the week and so drops the play by a unit.  Luckily for now it still looks like a good call at 3 versus 2 but it would be officially recorded as 2.  Sorry I missed that.

@HooAlum

Possibly the last update

NC State (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweighs low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

Iowa (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

NEW GAME: San Diego State (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator

Vanderbilt (3 units): low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Iowa State (7.5 units): sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return

Alabama (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Cincinnati (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Texas (7 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp indicators

CHANGE: LSU (1 units): sharp indicators, low handle underdog outweighs ticket favorite

Some new additions.  Here are the noon games and those new additions

Indiana (5 units): line movement, sharp indicators, wear coast body clock outweighs over/under squeeze

Wake Forest (2 Units): line movement, sharp indicators, bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite

Oklahoma (6 units): low ticket favorite, SKS, sharp Indicators

Nebraska (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Kansas (2 units): low ticket favorite

South Florida (3 units): line movement, low ticket favorite

NEW GAMES

Arkansas (2 units): line movement, sharp indicator

NC State (3 units): line movement, sharp indicators outweighs low handle favorite lopsided wagering

Iowa (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

@HooAlum

 Saturday Morning update after a luck box double OT win that still covers the 6 in the Virginia tech game (of course, I thought I had Charlotte +26.5 in the bag when it was tied at the half)

Indiana (6 units): line movement, sharp indicators, wear coast body clock outweighs over/under squeeze

SMU-Wake Forest (No Bet): line movement, sharp indicators, bye week return balanced by low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Oklahoma (6 units): low ticket favorite, SKS, sharp Indicators

NEW GAME: Nebraska (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Kansas (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

South Florida (3 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

CHANGE: Vanderbilt (3 units): sharp indicators

Iowa State (6.5 units): sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return

Alabama (1 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Cincinnati (1 unit): low ticket favorite reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

Texas (7 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement

CHANGE: Texas A&M (2 units): sharp indicators, low ticket favorite outweighs low handle home underdog

@HooAlum

Here is the Friday night update.  I hope to have another comprehensive one tomorrow.  Sort of a pull back week so far.

Indiana (6 units): line movement, sharp indicators, wear coast body clock outweighs over/under squeeze

Wake Forest (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators, bye week return outweighs low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Oklahoma (7 units): low ticket favorite, SKS, sharp Indicators

Kansas (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

South Florida (3 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Missouri (1 unit): sharp indicators

Iowa State (5.5 units): sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return

Alabama (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Baylor-Cincinnati (No Bet): low ticket favorite reverse movement balanced with sharp indicators

Texas (7 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement

LSU (2 units): sharp indicators, low handle home underdog

@HooAlum

 3 new games for tonight so thought I would give those a couple of hours out.v. Might give an update but no guarantee.  Definitely a comprehensive game breakdown tonight for tomorrow

Charlotte (2 units): sharp indicators, line movement, low bet home underdog outweighs high favorite handle, lopsided wagering

Virginia Tech (5 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, bye week return

Bosie St (1 unit): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, outweighs sharp indicator, line movement over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Well, better to be lucky than good sometimes comes in.  Another wining week but it rested completely with Georgia's cover which looking at the game, I feel very fortunate.  The other biggest play of the year was Indiana-Illinois.  THAT is how a big play is supposed to act with a 50+ point romp, not a late cover with a FG 2 minutes to go.  But I'll take it.  Legit wins with Boise and Vandy help the Dawgs push it over the line to a positive return (while Duke and the Utes failed us)

WEEKLY RECORD: 9-9

WEEKLY REVENUE: 80.8 units on 74 units wagered

SEASON RECORD: 73-46 (61.34%)

SEASON REVENUE: 509.4 units on 404.5 wagered (25.93% profit)

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SEASON INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

West Coast Body Clock Travel: 100%

SKS: 69.70%

Sharp Indicators: 68.89%

Lopsided Wagering: 61.76%

Home Underdog with low handle: 60.87% 

Low Bet Favorite: 56.90%

Bye Week Return: 52.94%

Line Movement: 52.38%

Low Handle Favorite: 51.67%

Steam: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 47.37%

Reverse Movement: 33.33%

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WAY TOO EARLY WEEK 9 GAMES

Indiana (7 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, wear coast body clock outweighs over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (8 units): low ticket favorite, SKS, sharp Indicators

Kansas (5 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

South Florida (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Vanderbilt (2 units): sharp indicators

Iowa State (4.5 units): sharp indicators, SKS, bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering

Alabama (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs low handle home underdog

Baylor (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs low ticket favorite

Texas (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs low handle home underdog

Texas A&M (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle home underdog

@HooAlum

Duke was a painful loss and Georgia is in a tight one so this could be a down week (at least we were able to anchor down).  Utah may need ro save the day.

Unfortunately this is the last update before the evening games.  Rule is if yo see movement that could affect the analysis

Iowa (3 units):  low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Texas (1 unit): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicator, over/under squeeze, bye week return

Notre Dame (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Alabama (3 units): sharp indicators

Missouri (4 units):  low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Utah (9.5 units): line movement, low handle favorite, SKS, sharp indicators (this line is moving upward even more grab at 3.5 while you can)

@HooAlum

Duke was a painful loss and Georgia is in a tight one so this could be a down week (at least we were able to anchor down).  Utah may need ro save the day.

Unfortunately this is the last update before the evening games.  Rule is if yo see movement that could affect the analysis

Iowa (3 units):  low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators