AC_28

Monday's non-statistical tip. We're moving to European leagues soon. GL!

Cadíz – Burgos

20.10.2025 20:30

Spain, Segunda División

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,85

The La Liga 2 match between Cádiz and Burgos has potential to produce over 2.5 goals, even though Cádiz have recently relied on their defensive consistency. The home side are in great form, unbeaten in their last eight league matches at home and showing solid attacking efficiency, scoring six goals in their previous six games while keeping three consecutive home clean sheets. However, injuries to key defenders like Fali and De la Rosa may reduce their defensive solidity. Burgos, on the other hand, have lost their last two matches and conceded in five of their last six games, allowing seven goals in total. Their away record is poor, with just one win in nine matches on the road. The return of Curro could boost Burgos’s attack, adding creativity and threat in the final third. Cádiz, while strong at home, might find it difficult to contain a motivated opponent seeking redemption. Considering the defensive absences and recent scoring patterns, an open match with several goal opportunities is likely. Their last head-to-head clash ended 2-2, further supporting the prediction of over 2.5 goals.

Botafogo SP - Cuiabá

19.10.2025 23:30

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,65

The Serie B clash between Botafogo-SP and Cuiabá has solid potential to produce over 2.5 goals given both sides’ recent trends and defensive fragility. Botafogo-SP have struggled at the back, conceding in 5 of their last 6 games for a total of 10 goals, and have won just once in their previous eight matches. Coach Allan Aal also faces key absences in Gustavo Bochecha and Jeferson, further weakening their midfield and defensive balance. Cuiabá, meanwhile, are on a strong run, unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 league fixtures and scoring 7 goals in their last six. However, they’ve also conceded five times during that span, showing that their matches tend to be open. The visitors have some injury concerns with Alan Empereur, Calebe Costa, and goalkeeper Mateus Pasinato unavailable, which could affect defensive stability. Botafogo usually adopt a more attacking approach at home, often leaving gaps at the back. Considering both teams’ form, vulnerabilities, and offensive intent, this fixture is well poised to see at least three goals scored.

Oita – Vegalta Sendai

19.10.2025 07:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,55

The J2 League clash between Oita Trinita and Vegalta Sendai looks set to be an engaging encounter with potential for over 2.5 goals. Oita Trinita were held to a goalless draw in their last match against Blaublitz Akita, but their home performances tend to be more open. Injuries to midfielders Hayato and Nomura could weaken Oita’s defensive organization, giving Vegalta more space to attack. Vegalta Sendai come into this fixture with strong attacking momentum, scoring 10 goals in their last six matches and finding the net in every single one. However, they have also conceded five times during that span, which often leads to high-scoring games. The visitors are at full strength and undefeated in their last nine away league fixtures, showing confidence and stability. Historically, Sendai dominate this matchup with four wins from the last six meetings, producing an average of 2.33 goals per game. Considering Oita’s absences, Vegalta’s offensive consistency, and the head-to-head trends, the match has a solid likelihood of exceeding 2.5 total goals.

Iwata - Tokushima

18.10.2025 10:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,22

The match between Júbilo Iwata and Tokushima Vortis at Yamaha Stadium promises an open contest with strong attacking potential on both sides. Júbilo Iwata enter the game in good form, having scored eight goals in their last six matches, averaging 1.33 goals per game. The home side are at full strength with no injury concerns, which supports an offensive approach. Tokushima Vortis are also in fine attacking rhythm — they have found the net in each of their last six matches, scoring eight goals but conceding six, reflecting a balance between attacking intent and defensive vulnerability. Historically, this fixture tends to produce goals, with the last six head-to-head meetings averaging 3.33 goals per match. Both managers can field their strongest lineups, likely encouraging an aggressive tactical setup. Given the recent scoring trends and head-to-head data, this encounter has a strong likelihood of seeing over 2.5 total goals.

Amazonas – Novorizontino

18.10.2025 01:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,70

Friday’s Serie B clash between Amazonas and Grêmio Novorizontino at Estádio Carlos Zamith has the potential to produce more than 2.5 goals. Amazonas remain under pressure after a 1–0 defeat to Vila Nova, sitting in 19th place and in desperate need of points, which should push them toward a more attacking approach. The team has conceded in five of their last six matches, allowing a total of 10 goals during that span. The return of key offensive players such as Kevin Ramírez, Henrique Almeida, and Gabriel Domingos adds depth and creativity to their front line. Meanwhile, Grêmio Novorizontino are in strong form, having won back-to-back matches, including a dominant 3–0 victory over Operário. With strikers Waguininho and Robson back from suspension, their attacking options are significantly improved. Considering Amazonas’ defensive instability and Novorizontino’s offensive momentum, an open match with multiple scoring opportunities is likely. Their last encounter ended 1–1, but this time, the conditions suggest a higher-scoring affair, with over 2.5 goals looking like a solid prediction.

Vitoria – Bahia

17.10.2025 02:30

Brazil, Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,88

Friday’s Serie A clash between Vitoria and Bahia at Estádio Manoel Barradas promises an open and high-scoring affair with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. Vitoria’s recent 4–3 loss to Vasco exposed their defensive fragility once again – they have conceded 10 goals in their last six matches while scoring six themselves. Under Jair Ventura, the team tends to play aggressively at home, often creating end-to-end games. Bahia, fresh off a 1–0 victory over Flamengo, have scored in each of their last six matches, totaling six goals, though they have also conceded eight in that period. Despite missing key players such as Everton Ribeiro and Willian José, Bahia regain several regular starters including Arias, Nestor, and Sanabria, which should strengthen their attack. Historically, this fixture delivers goals – the last six head-to-head encounters have averaged 3.5 goals per game, with Bahia taking four wins. With Vitoria desperate for points to escape the relegation zone and Bahia aiming to stay in G-4 contention, both sides are expected to push forward, making over 2.5 goals a very plausible outcome.

Gremio – Sao Paulo

17.10.2025 00:00

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,74

The upcoming clash between Grêmio and São Paulo could produce more goals than expected, despite both teams’ inconsistent form. Grêmio lost 1–0 to Bragantino but have conceded in each of their last six matches, allowing seven goals in total, which highlights defensive instability. At home, however, Grêmio tend to play more aggressively, with an average of nearly three goals per game at Arena do Grêmio. São Paulo come from a thrilling 3–2 defeat to Palmeiras and have conceded in five of their last six matches, showing defensive fragility but offensive intent. Although São Paulo are missing key attackers like Calleri, André Silva, and Oscar, their pacey transitional play could exploit Grêmio’s weakened defense, which will be without several starters (Kannemann, Marlon, Balbuena). Head-to-head history supports a high-scoring outlook – the last six meetings between these sides have averaged 2.67 goals, with five ending in over 2.5 total. Given both teams’ current defensive issues and motivation to bounce back, this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and an open, attacking rhythm throughout the 90 minutes.

Athletic Club MG – Goiás

11.10.2025 21:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,58

The clash between Athletic Club and Goiás promises an open and attacking match. Athletic ended a four-game winless streak with a 4–1 victory over Operário Ferroviário, showing renewed attacking strength. Their last six matches averaged 2.8 goals per game, with frequent scoring and conceding at home. Goiás, currently second in Serie B, are in poor form with four matches without a win and just three goals scored in their last six outings. However, the return of key forwards Jajá and Brayann should significantly boost their offense. Athletic will miss defender Edson, while Goiás face defensive issues with full-backs Lovat and Diego Caito unavailable. Both sides are under pressure — Athletic to avoid relegation danger, and Goiás to remain in the top four. Their previous meeting ended 2–1 for Athletic, indicating a balanced but goal-rich fixture. Considering team news, recent trends, and attacking setups, the probability of over 2.5 total goals is strong, especially with both teams likely to find the net.

@AC_28

 Ferroviária - Chapecoense 0:1 FT. Tip KO

Ferroviária – Chapecoense

10.10.2025 00:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,27

Ferroviária come into this match after a 3-1 defeat to América Mineiro, having conceded 10 goals in their last six matches, showing defensive instability. Their backline will be further weakened by suspensions to Alencar and Edson Lucas, along with injuries to Juninho and Eric Melo. Chapecoense, on the other hand, arrive boosted by two consecutive wins and are pushing for a top-four spot. However, they too have defensive issues, conceding in 5 of their last 6 games, with 8 goals against. The previous head-to-head in June ended 2-1 for Chapecoense, indicating goals are common in this fixture. Coach Gilmar Dal Pozzo will be without defender João Paulo, who is contractually tied to Ferroviária, forcing changes in the lineup. Considering Ferroviária’s defensive absences and Chapecoense’s vulnerabilities, along with the high stakes for both survival and promotion, the match is likely to be open. Therefore, the data strongly supports the expectation of over 2.5 goals in this encounter.

Amazonas – Criciuma

08.10.2025 01:00

Brazil, Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,56

Amazonas head into this match following a 2-2 draw with Athletic Club, showing that their games can produce goals. Despite having scored just 4 goals in their last six matches, they have conceded 12, highlighting clear defensive weaknesses. Criciúma drew 1-1 with Vila Nova in their latest outing, and their last six games averaged only 2.17 goals per match. However, the previous head-to-head in June ended 3-2 in Criciúma’s favor, proving that clashes between these sides can be far more open and high scoring. Criciúma also remain unbeaten in their last 5 league away fixtures, which boosts their confidence. Amazonas have no injury concerns, while Criciúma are missing four players – Naldi and Fagundes through suspension, Monteiro and Roca due to long-term injuries. These absences could weaken their back line and create more scoring chances. Considering Amazonas’ fragile defense and Criciúma’s squad issues, the data strongly supports the likelihood of over 2.5 goals in this encounter.

Botafogo SP - Ferroviária

Brazil, Seria B

28.09.2025 23:30

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,55

Botafogo-SP are struggling, winless in their last four league games and holding the worst defensive record in Serie B with 47 goals conceded. Their 3-2 defeat to CRB last round highlighted once again their tendency for high-scoring matches. Offensively, they remain capable, scoring eight goals across their last six fixtures. Ferroviária are also in poor form, winless in six matches, and have conceded 11 goals in their last six outings. The reverse fixture ended 1-1, but given both teams’ current defensive weaknesses, this match is likely to produce more goals. Botafogo face significant absences, with Edson suspended and Carlos Eduardo, Alejo, and Ronie Carrillo among those sidelined, which further destabilizes their backline. Ferroviária, on the other hand, have no major absences and will likely field a near full-strength squad. With both sides fighting relegation, the game could become open and tense, often leading to more scoring chances. The statistics and squad situations strongly support the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

Toyama – Tokushima

28.09.2025 08:00

Japan, J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,23

Kataller Toyama come into this match after a 1-1 draw with V-Varen Nagasaki, but their attacking form has been poor, with only 4 goals scored and 11 conceded in their last 6 games. Their home record is also disappointing, as they have failed to win any of their last 3 league matches at Toyama Stadium. Tokushima Vortis lost their most recent game against Consadole Sapporo, yet they have scored 6 and conceded 6 in their last 6 matches, showing a tendency for open contests. Historically, Tokushima dominates this matchup, winning 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads, with an average of 2.33 goals per game. In recent seasons, their meetings often featured at least 2 goals, reinforcing the potential for a high-scoring clash. Kataller Toyama will be at full strength, while Tokushima miss Lucas Barcelos due to a hamstring injury. Considering Toyama’s defensive weaknesses and Tokushima’s offensive edge, the match shows strong potential for over 2.5 goals.

Imabari – Tosu

27.09.2025 12:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,24

FC Imabari come into this match after a 3-2 victory against Omiya Ardija, continuing their trend of high-scoring games as they have conceded in all of their last 6 matches, shipping 9 goals in total. Sagan Tosu face similar defensive struggles, having conceded in 5 of their last 6 fixtures with 11 goals allowed, though they remain strong in attack, highlighted by their recent 4-2 win over Roasso Kumamoto. Head-to-head meetings also suggest goals, as Imabari defeated Tosu 4-1 in their last encounter earlier this season. Both sides are dealing with notable absences: Imabari miss key players like Mochii, Kato, and Saitai, while Tosu are without Morishita, Ando, and Cristiano. These injuries weaken defensive organization and could lead to more scoring chances. Given the current form, statistical trends, and defensive vulnerabilities, this clash has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals.

Atletico MG – Mirassol

28.09.2025 02:00

Brazil, Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,19

Atlético Mineiro come into this match after a 1-0 Copa Sudamericana win over Bolívar, but their defensive record in the league has been poor, conceding in each of their last 6 games with 9 goals allowed. They also failed to win their last two home league fixtures, which gives Mirassol added confidence. The visitors are in strong attacking form, having scored 13 goals in their last 6 matches and finding the net in every one of them, though they conceded 5 times in that span. Their last head-to-head ended in a 2-2 draw, underlining the likelihood of goals when these sides meet. Both teams face injury concerns: Atlético Mineiro will be without Saravia, Patrick, and Cuello, while Mirassol miss Da Silva and Matheus Sales. These absences are likely to impact defensive solidity. Given Mirassol’s attacking form and Mineiro’s defensive struggles, this game has a strong probability of producing over 2.5 goals.

Avispa Fukuoka – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

27.09.2025 11:00

Japan J1 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,40

Avispa Fukuoka come into this match after a 1-0 defeat to FC Tokyo, showing poor attacking efficiency with only 4 goals scored across their last 6 matches while conceding 10. Their defensive weakness could be exploited by Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who have scored 10 goals and conceded 6 in their last 6 games, averaging over 2.5 goals per match. Historically, Avispa have struggled badly in this fixture, failing to win any of the last 8 league meetings against Hiroshima. Although their head-to-head average stands at just 1.83 goals per game, the current form trends suggest a more open contest. Avispa are also winless in their last 4 home league matches, increasing pressure to take attacking risks. Sanfrecce, on the other hand, are unbeaten in 5 away games against Avispa and have not lost in their last 5 league away matches overall. Given the hosts’ defensive frailties and the visitors’ attacking potential, there is strong evidence to expect over 2.5 goals in this encounter.

Tokyo Verdy – Urawa Reds

27.09.2025 11:00

Japan J1 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,52

Tokyo Verdy enter this game after a heavy 4-0 defeat against Vissel Kobe, highlighting their defensive weaknesses, as they have conceded 11 goals across their last 6 matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of them. While Urawa Red Diamonds’ recent games have been low-scoring, averaging just 1.67 goals per match, the head-to-head history between these teams suggests a different picture. In their last six meetings, 19 goals were scored, averaging 3.17 per game, well above the 2.5 threshold. Tokyo Verdy will be weakened by the absence of Goki Yamada and Hiroto Yamami, which could further destabilize their defense. Urawa, on the other hand, have a full-strength squad, boosting their attacking options. Verdy also remain unbeaten in their last two home matches against Urawa, which could encourage a more open contest. Considering Verdy’s defensive frailties, Urawa’s full lineup, and the historically high-scoring encounters, this match shows strong potential for over 2.5 goals.

Juventude – Internacional

Brazil, Seria A

27.09.2025 23:30

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,25

Juventude suffered a 2-0 defeat to Mirassol in their last outing, showing inconsistency with only 6 goals scored but 9 conceded across their previous six matches. They also struggle against Internacional, having failed to win any of their last five league meetings. Internacional lost to Grêmio in their previous game but have scored 7 goals in their last six fixtures while conceding in each one, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Head-to-head encounters between these sides are typically high-scoring, producing 20 goals across their last six clashes, an average of 3.33 per game. Their most recent meeting ended 3-1 to Internacional, reinforcing this trend. Juventude are heavily weakened by injuries, with key absences such as Wilker Ángel and Ewerthon affecting their defense. Internacional also miss several players including Bruno Gomes, Ronaldo, and Ivan, yet remain strong in attack. Considering the goal-rich history, defensive issues on both sides, and attacking output, this match has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals.

Vasco Da Gama – Cruzeiro

Brazil, Seria A

27.09.2025 23:30

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,25

Vasco da Gama approach this match boosted by a 3-1 victory over Bahia, and notably, they have both scored and conceded in each of their last six games. This trend points to an open playing style and higher goal potential. Historically, Vasco have struggled against Cruzeiro, failing to win any of their last six league meetings. Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have been solid defensively with only 3 goals conceded in their last six games, but their attack has been sharp, netting 11 goals in the same period, averaging nearly 2 per match. Although past head-to-head encounters have been lower scoring (1.83 goals per game), the current form of both sides suggests a higher-scoring affair this time. Vasco will be weakened by numerous injuries, including Adson, Jair, and Thiago Mendes, which could compromise their defensive stability. Cruzeiro miss only Fagner, meaning they will be close to full strength. Considering Cruzeiro’s attacking form, Vasco’s defensive frailties, and the injury situation, this match has strong potential to produce over 2.5 goals.

Drogheda – Derry

26.09.2025 20:45

Ireland, Premier League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,38

Drogheda United come into this match after a 2-1 win over Shelbourne, but their defensive record remains concerning, having conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. They have also failed to beat Derry City in their last two league encounters. Derry City, on the other hand, have been productive in attack, scoring 10 goals in their previous six fixtures – an average of nearly 1.7 goals per game. Their defensive frailties are evident as well, with goals conceded in 5 of their last 6 games. The head-to-head record suggests goals, too, with 16 scored in their last six meetings, averaging 2.67 per match. Drogheda are almost at full strength, missing only Ahui, while Derry will be without Boyce and Dummigan, absences that may affect their balance. With Derry unbeaten in their last two away league games, they are expected to push forward. Considering Derry’s attacking form, defensive weaknesses on both sides, and the goal-rich head-to-head history, this fixture has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals.

I'll add the weekend tips tomorrow, which is Friday. GL!

Vasco – Bahia

25.09.2025 00:30

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,18

Vasco da Gama come into this match after a 1-1 draw with Flamengo, and their recent games have been high-scoring, with 20 goals recorded across their last six matches – an average of 3.33 goals per game. Vasco themselves have scored 10 goals in that period, highlighting attacking potential but also defensive issues. At home, however, they are winless in their last three league fixtures. Bahia also drew 1-1 in their most recent match against Ceará and have scored 6 times in their last six games while conceding 10, underlining defensive vulnerabilities. The head-to-head record between these sides has seen 15 goals in their last five meetings, averaging 2.5 per game. Both squads are heavily affected by injuries – Vasco miss key players such as Piton, Tchê Tchê and Jair, while Bahia are without Caio Alexandre, Pulga and Kanu among others. Considering the scoring trends and defensive gaps on both sides, this match has strong potential to go over 2.5 goals.

Gremio – Botafogo RJ

25.09.2025 00:30

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,36

Grêmio head into this clash boosted by their 3-2 win over Internacional, a result that showed they can still be involved in high-scoring games despite having scored just 4 goals in their last six matches. Their defense conceded 5 goals in the same period, and they remain winless against Botafogo in their last two league encounters. Botafogo, who recently defeated Atlético Mineiro 1-0, have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 7 goals across their last six games. Importantly, the head-to-head record between these two sides is highly goal-rich, with 23 goals scored in their last six meetings – an average of 3.83 per match. Both teams are affected by absences, with Grêmio missing key players such as Braithwaite, Villasanti, and Ely, while Botafogo are without Ramos and Rodríguez due to suspension. Botafogo are also unbeaten in their last four away league games, suggesting they can push forward offensively. Considering the historical goal output and current defensive weaknesses, this match has strong potential to see over 2.5 goals scored.

The Brazilian misery continues. So far I am successfully attacking the worst drawdown in the last two years, which is 7 unsuccessful matches in a row. It takes time, don't give up. Just stick to the 1 point stake from the 100-point pot. Don't place combo bets, don't place combined bets, don't add derivative bets (like BHS). If you lower the line to Over 1.5 goals, you can, it usually has value too.

Paysandu - Novorizontino 0:1 FT. Tip KO