AC_28

This is Non-statistical!!!! tip for Wednesday.

Preston – Swansea

5.11.2025 20:45

England Championship

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,47

The upcoming match between Preston North End and Swansea City promises to be an open contest with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. Preston enter this fixture in good form after a 2–0 victory over Southampton, having scored eight goals in their last six games at an average of 1.33 per match. They have also been highly consistent at Deepdale, remaining unbeaten in 20 of their last 23 home Championship fixtures, which often encourages an attacking approach. Swansea, meanwhile, continue to struggle defensively, conceding in five of their last six matches and allowing a total of nine goals. Their recent fixtures tend to be open, with both teams finding scoring opportunities. Historically, matches between these two sides also produce goals – 16 in their last six meetings, averaging 2.67 per game. Preston will miss forward Will Keane and midfielder Josh Thompson, while Swansea’s backline is weakened by the absence of defender Almeida Santos and forward Benson Hedilazio. With both sides capable of scoring but vulnerable at the back, all indicators suggest this clash could see over 2.5 goals.

Hey!

Yesterday the summer tips period ended and today it's time to do a short recap. In the spring I decided to apply my tips selection strategy to a fairly wide set of leagues that are played at a time when the European leagues are on break. I didn't have any special ambitions, after all, two South American, two Asian, one Scandinavian league and two Irish leagues mean a wide range of playing styles and other specifics. So I went into it with the idea that this set would thoroughly test the robustness of my strategy. The result was quite surprising - the net profit after 187 matches played is 184.64 units and the Yield is 9.87%. Good for a start, you can build on that.

The general summary of the strategy is clear, there is nothing to add to this. I will only specify that I use flat stakes - i.e. equal stakes, i.e. 10 points per tip. My Closing Line Value (CLV) is negative for one (important to me) reason. I give tips well in advance, a day or two before the weekend. The odds of my matches usually do not drop – on the contrary – they are highest just before the start of the match. And since I do not want to spend weekend nights or mornings giving closing odds, I am resigned to a negative 2-3 percent CLV. It is the price for a quiet, undisturbed weekend.

The graph illustrates the growth of the bankroll, which is continuous until September. You can see a series of six won matches in a row, which we managed to do twice in August. In mid-September, it broke and a series of seven lost matches came, we lost about 30 percent of the profit and the worst drawdown was during this short period – up to 131.5 points.

The following is a table of monthly profits – we closed more than half of the seven-month period in profit. August 2025 stood out with a profit of 138.7 points. The worst month was October 2025, which ended in minus 24.6 points.

The last table illustrates the profits by league. Five out of seven leagues showed a profit. The Brazilian Seria A brought relatively high losses. The Japanese J1 League excelled – not only did it bring the highest profits, but it also amazed with its numbers. Win rate 57.14% at an average odds of 2.42!!!

Okay, let's outline the facts that will determine how we start the summer leagues in a year - that is, in May 2026. We will definitely eliminate the Brazilian Seria A. We will be left with the two Japanese leagues and the Brazilian Seria B. For now, I am undecided what to do with the two Irish leagues and the Swedish Superettan. It's not that they are critically unprofitable, it's more that they produce few signals - three leagues only delivered fourteen tips, which is not enough. We'll see - so for now we say goodbye to the summer leagues and the classic, European leagues await us. GL!

Amazonas – Cuiaba

02.11.2025 20:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,48

Amazonas host Cuiabá in a Serie B matchup that looks likely to produce over 2.5 goals. The home side’s defence has been fragile lately, conceding 9 goals in their last 6 games and rarely keeping a clean sheet. Cuiabá face similar issues at the back, having allowed goals in 5 of their last 6 matches. Notably, all of Cuiabá’s last six away fixtures have seen both teams score, highlighting their attacking intent but also defensive vulnerability. Although Amazonas have failed to find the net in their previous three Serie B games, their home form has been steadier, remaining unbeaten in their last two home outings. The previous meeting between these sides ended in a 3–1 victory for Cuiabá, which further supports the potential for goals in this fixture. Cuiabá enter the game with a fully fit squad, while Amazonas miss only midfielder F. da Cunha Neto, so both sides are expected to line up strong offensively. Given the stats, form trends, and history between these teams, a high-scoring encounter with over 2.5 goals seems very plausible.

America Mineiro – Novorizontino

03.11.2025 23:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,50

The clash between América Mineiro and Grêmio Novorizontino looks set to be an open encounter, with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. América Mineiro have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in each of their last six matches while conceding in five of them, reflecting an attacking but defensively fragile style. They are unbeaten in their last six home games but haven’t managed a win in their previous two at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, suggesting they’ll push harder offensively this time. Grêmio Novorizontino, meanwhile, have avoided defeat in nine of their last ten Serie B matches and remain unbeaten in their last two away fixtures. Despite a recent trend of low-scoring games, their last head-to-head meeting ended 3–1 in favor of Novorizontino, showing that this matchup can produce goals. América Mineiro are only missing midfielder A. Egea, while the visitors will be without three defenders, including suspended J. Silva Dantas, which could expose their backline. Considering both sides’ form, attacking tendencies, and defensive absences, this fixture strongly points toward over 2.5 goals being scored.

Imabari – Vegalta Sendai

02.11.2025 06:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,14

The J2 League match at Asics Satoyama Stadium between FC Imabari and Vegalta Sendai looks set to deliver an open and attacking encounter. FC Imabari come into this game after a 1-1 draw with V-Varen Nagasaki, extending their run of six consecutive matches without a clean sheet, conceding seven goals in total. Their defensive weakness is further compounded by injuries to key players — midfielders Mochii and Kato, and defender Saitai. Although unbeaten in their last two home games, Imabari have only managed two wins in their previous twelve home fixtures, underlining their inconsistency. Vegalta Sendai, on the other hand, are coming off a thrilling 3-2 victory over Sagan Tosu and have found the net 11 times in their last six matches, averaging nearly two goals per game. However, their defense remains vulnerable, conceding six goals during the same stretch. Despite being unbeaten in ten straight away games, Vegalta tend to play open, high-scoring matches. Considering both teams’ recent scoring trends, Imabari’s defensive absences, and Vegalta’s attacking momentum, this fixture strongly points toward a game featuring over 2.5 total goals.

Ventforet Kofu – Mito

02.11.2025 06:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,24

Ventforet Kofu host Mito Hollyhock in a fixture that promises goals at both ends. The home side have been leaky in defence lately, conceding 12 goals across their last 6 matches and failing to keep a single clean sheet. This suggests that Kofu’s attacking approach often leaves them exposed at the back, resulting in high-scoring encounters. Historically, meetings between these two sides have been open – their last six head-to-heads produced 18 goals, averaging 3 per match. Mito Hollyhock may have edged their last outing 1–0, but they tend to create plenty of chances and can exploit Kofu’s fragile defence. Despite missing several attacking players, including R. Nemoto and K. Umeda, Mito remain unbeaten in their last six away matches. Ventforet Kofu, on the other hand, will likely push forward to end their winless home streak, which could make the match even more open. Given the defensive weaknesses, attacking tendencies, and past goal-rich encounters, this clash has strong potential to produce over 2.5 goals.

Have a nice Tuesday evening! I would like to comment on the last weekend and state a few facts about what awaits us together in the near future as a tipster. So let's get to it, I will try to be brief. The last weekend could have seemed catastrophic. Hitting only one match out of five looks like a shameful fiasco at first glance. However, when we look at the numbers, they do not lie – four points minus and 1.41 points plus. A loss of minus 2.59 points over the weekend from a 100-point pot is nothing out of the ordinary. This is what a tipster's job is about. Let's move on to plans for the future. As I wrote a while ago, I bet sets of leagues. From the beginning of March to the end of October I bet SUMMER LEAGUES (BRA 1, BRA 2, person 1, person 2, IRE 1, IRE 2, SWE 2). From the beginning of November to the end of April, it's EURO LEAGUES again (ENG 2, ESP 2, FRA 2, FRA 3, ITA 2, POR 2, SCO 2) So the last weekend of the summer leagues is coming and after that I'll come with some statistics. Sometime in the middle of next week you'll see the statistics of the last half year. A graph, some table and a few factual comments. In short, the betting parameters from which the tipster will get a better picture.

Non-statistical tip. Small stake, for fun.

Empoli – Sampdoria

28.10.2025 20:30

Italy, Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,57

The Serie B clash at Stadio Carlo Castellani between Empoli and Sampdoria is shaping up to be an open and attacking contest. Empoli come into the game after a 2-1 defeat to Modena, but they have scored in each of their last six matches, netting eight goals in total. Their defense, however, has looked fragile, conceding ten times in that same period. Injuries to key attackers Pellegri and Konate could affect their finishing, yet the absence of midfielder Haas might push the team to rely more on direct, offensive play. Sampdoria, meanwhile, showed signs of improvement after a 1-1 draw with Frosinone. They have scored seven goals in their last six outings, while conceding in five of them, highlighting both attacking potential and defensive issues. Missing defenders Altare and Ferrari weakens their backline even further. Despite being winless in their last 18 away league matches, Sampdoria’s attacking intent remains evident, and this fixture could see plenty of chances at both ends. Historically, the meetings between these sides have averaged 2.83 goals per match, and with both teams struggling to defend, all indicators suggest a game with more than 2.5 goals on the board.

Derry - Shamrock

26.10.2025 16:00

Ireland Premier League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,41

The clash between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers looks likely to produce over 2.5 goals, given both teams’ attacking trends and recent defensive issues. Derry City have scored in each of their last six matches, netting 11 goals and conceding eight, reflecting their open and forward-minded style. They are also unbeaten in their last eight home league games, which should boost their confidence in attack. Despite being without Boyce, Dummigan, and Akinyemi, Derry have maintained strong offensive output. Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have shown defensive fragility, conceding in all of their last six matches for a total of nine goals. Their games consistently feature chances for both sides, and they remain one of the league’s more attacking teams. While previous head-to-head encounters averaged around two goals per game, both sides’ current form and approach suggest a more open match with several scoring opportunities on Sunday.

Volta Redonda - Coritiba

25.10.2025 21:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,66

The clash between Volta Redonda and Coritiba has strong potential for over 2.5 goals, given the home side’s recent high-scoring trend. In five of Volta Redonda’s last six matches, at least three goals were scored, with a total of 15 goals produced in that span. They are unbeaten in their last four home league games, often playing with attacking intent in front of their fans. Even with midfielders Andre Luiz (suspended) and Du Fernandes (injured) missing, the hosts are expected to push forward. Coritiba’s defense, normally reliable, will be severely weakened by the absence of three defenders – Moledo, Bruno Melo (red card), and Coser (suspended) – which could open up space for Volta Redonda’s attackers. Despite Coritiba’s recent defensive solidity, their depleted backline could be exposed. Both teams have enough quality to find the net, and a 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline seems realistic, supporting the over 2.5 goals prediction.

Blaublitz – JEF Chiba Utd.

26.10.2025 06:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,02

The match between AFC Blaublitz Akita and JEF United Chiba looks promising for over 2.5 goals, mainly due to their attacking record in head-to-head meetings. Across their last six encounters, these teams have produced 15 goals, averaging exactly 2.5 per game. The most recent clash ended in a 3-1 win for Chiba, again pointing toward a high-scoring pattern. While Akita’s recent games have been lower-scoring, they remain unbeaten in their last three home league matches and will likely push forward with confidence. Manager Ken Yoshida has the advantage of a fully fit squad, which could lead to more offensive intent. On the other side, Chiba have scored seven times in their previous six matches, demonstrating growing attacking consistency despite the absence of midfielder K. Tanaka. Given both teams’ head-to-head history and attacking potential, a scoreline like 2-1 or 2-2 appears realistic, supporting the prediction of over 2.5 goals.

Shimizu – Tokyo Verdy

25.10.2025 07:00

Japan J1 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,70

The clash between Shimizu S-Pulse and Tokyo Verdy looks likely to produce over 2.5 goals, as both sides have shown defensive fragility in recent weeks. Shimizu conceded eight goals in their last six matches while scoring seven, including a 5-3 loss to Kawasaki Frontale, which highlighted their attacking intent but also defensive issues. Coach Tadahiro Akiba will again be without defender Y. Takahashi due to a cruciate ligament injury, weakening their back line further. Tokyo Verdy, despite winning 1-0 against Albirex Niigata last time out, have allowed seven goals in their last six games, underlining their inconsistency at the back. They are also missing forwards Yamada and Yamami, which could stretch their structure and create a more open midfield. Historically, Shimizu have gone unbeaten in the last three meetings against Verdy, with goals featuring regularly in these encounters. Given both teams’ tendencies to concede and attack freely, an over 2.5 goals outcome appears a realistic expectation.

Atletico-MG – Ceará

25.10.2025 21:00

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,64

The clash between Atlético Mineiro and Ceará could see over 2.5 goals, as both teams have shown defensive weaknesses and tend to produce open matches. Their last six head-to-head encounters brought 12 goals in total, averaging 2 goals per game, and recent form suggests an upward scoring trend. Atlético Mineiro remain unbeaten in their last five home league games and usually play aggressively in front of their fans, though they have conceded seven goals in their last six outings. The team will be missing attackers Pereira Rodrigues (suspended) and Cuello (ankle injury), which could lead to tactical adjustments and a more fluid attacking style. Ceará, meanwhile, have conceded in five of their last six matches, showing defensive vulnerability despite their generally low-scoring games. With key absences in defense (Leandro) and attack (Pedro Henrique), they might struggle to maintain stability. Atlético Mineiro have enough attacking power to capitalize, but Ceará can also find a way to score. A match with over 2.5 goals appears a realistic scenario.

Monday's non-statistical tip. We're moving to European leagues soon. GL!

Cadíz – Burgos

20.10.2025 20:30

Spain, Segunda División

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,85

The La Liga 2 match between Cádiz and Burgos has potential to produce over 2.5 goals, even though Cádiz have recently relied on their defensive consistency. The home side are in great form, unbeaten in their last eight league matches at home and showing solid attacking efficiency, scoring six goals in their previous six games while keeping three consecutive home clean sheets. However, injuries to key defenders like Fali and De la Rosa may reduce their defensive solidity. Burgos, on the other hand, have lost their last two matches and conceded in five of their last six games, allowing seven goals in total. Their away record is poor, with just one win in nine matches on the road. The return of Curro could boost Burgos’s attack, adding creativity and threat in the final third. Cádiz, while strong at home, might find it difficult to contain a motivated opponent seeking redemption. Considering the defensive absences and recent scoring patterns, an open match with several goal opportunities is likely. Their last head-to-head clash ended 2-2, further supporting the prediction of over 2.5 goals.

Botafogo SP - Cuiabá

19.10.2025 23:30

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,65

The Serie B clash between Botafogo-SP and Cuiabá has solid potential to produce over 2.5 goals given both sides’ recent trends and defensive fragility. Botafogo-SP have struggled at the back, conceding in 5 of their last 6 games for a total of 10 goals, and have won just once in their previous eight matches. Coach Allan Aal also faces key absences in Gustavo Bochecha and Jeferson, further weakening their midfield and defensive balance. Cuiabá, meanwhile, are on a strong run, unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 league fixtures and scoring 7 goals in their last six. However, they’ve also conceded five times during that span, showing that their matches tend to be open. The visitors have some injury concerns with Alan Empereur, Calebe Costa, and goalkeeper Mateus Pasinato unavailable, which could affect defensive stability. Botafogo usually adopt a more attacking approach at home, often leaving gaps at the back. Considering both teams’ form, vulnerabilities, and offensive intent, this fixture is well poised to see at least three goals scored.

Oita – Vegalta Sendai

19.10.2025 07:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,55

The J2 League clash between Oita Trinita and Vegalta Sendai looks set to be an engaging encounter with potential for over 2.5 goals. Oita Trinita were held to a goalless draw in their last match against Blaublitz Akita, but their home performances tend to be more open. Injuries to midfielders Hayato and Nomura could weaken Oita’s defensive organization, giving Vegalta more space to attack. Vegalta Sendai come into this fixture with strong attacking momentum, scoring 10 goals in their last six matches and finding the net in every single one. However, they have also conceded five times during that span, which often leads to high-scoring games. The visitors are at full strength and undefeated in their last nine away league fixtures, showing confidence and stability. Historically, Sendai dominate this matchup with four wins from the last six meetings, producing an average of 2.33 goals per game. Considering Oita’s absences, Vegalta’s offensive consistency, and the head-to-head trends, the match has a solid likelihood of exceeding 2.5 total goals.

Iwata - Tokushima

18.10.2025 10:00

Japan J2 League

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,22

The match between Júbilo Iwata and Tokushima Vortis at Yamaha Stadium promises an open contest with strong attacking potential on both sides. Júbilo Iwata enter the game in good form, having scored eight goals in their last six matches, averaging 1.33 goals per game. The home side are at full strength with no injury concerns, which supports an offensive approach. Tokushima Vortis are also in fine attacking rhythm — they have found the net in each of their last six matches, scoring eight goals but conceding six, reflecting a balance between attacking intent and defensive vulnerability. Historically, this fixture tends to produce goals, with the last six head-to-head meetings averaging 3.33 goals per match. Both managers can field their strongest lineups, likely encouraging an aggressive tactical setup. Given the recent scoring trends and head-to-head data, this encounter has a strong likelihood of seeing over 2.5 total goals.

Amazonas – Novorizontino

18.10.2025 01:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,70

Friday’s Serie B clash between Amazonas and Grêmio Novorizontino at Estádio Carlos Zamith has the potential to produce more than 2.5 goals. Amazonas remain under pressure after a 1–0 defeat to Vila Nova, sitting in 19th place and in desperate need of points, which should push them toward a more attacking approach. The team has conceded in five of their last six matches, allowing a total of 10 goals during that span. The return of key offensive players such as Kevin Ramírez, Henrique Almeida, and Gabriel Domingos adds depth and creativity to their front line. Meanwhile, Grêmio Novorizontino are in strong form, having won back-to-back matches, including a dominant 3–0 victory over Operário. With strikers Waguininho and Robson back from suspension, their attacking options are significantly improved. Considering Amazonas’ defensive instability and Novorizontino’s offensive momentum, an open match with multiple scoring opportunities is likely. Their last encounter ended 1–1, but this time, the conditions suggest a higher-scoring affair, with over 2.5 goals looking like a solid prediction.

Vitoria – Bahia

17.10.2025 02:30

Brazil, Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,88

Friday’s Serie A clash between Vitoria and Bahia at Estádio Manoel Barradas promises an open and high-scoring affair with strong potential for over 2.5 goals. Vitoria’s recent 4–3 loss to Vasco exposed their defensive fragility once again – they have conceded 10 goals in their last six matches while scoring six themselves. Under Jair Ventura, the team tends to play aggressively at home, often creating end-to-end games. Bahia, fresh off a 1–0 victory over Flamengo, have scored in each of their last six matches, totaling six goals, though they have also conceded eight in that period. Despite missing key players such as Everton Ribeiro and Willian José, Bahia regain several regular starters including Arias, Nestor, and Sanabria, which should strengthen their attack. Historically, this fixture delivers goals – the last six head-to-head encounters have averaged 3.5 goals per game, with Bahia taking four wins. With Vitoria desperate for points to escape the relegation zone and Bahia aiming to stay in G-4 contention, both sides are expected to push forward, making over 2.5 goals a very plausible outcome.

Gremio – Sao Paulo

17.10.2025 00:00

Brazil Seria A

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,74

The upcoming clash between Grêmio and São Paulo could produce more goals than expected, despite both teams’ inconsistent form. Grêmio lost 1–0 to Bragantino but have conceded in each of their last six matches, allowing seven goals in total, which highlights defensive instability. At home, however, Grêmio tend to play more aggressively, with an average of nearly three goals per game at Arena do Grêmio. São Paulo come from a thrilling 3–2 defeat to Palmeiras and have conceded in five of their last six matches, showing defensive fragility but offensive intent. Although São Paulo are missing key attackers like Calleri, André Silva, and Oscar, their pacey transitional play could exploit Grêmio’s weakened defense, which will be without several starters (Kannemann, Marlon, Balbuena). Head-to-head history supports a high-scoring outlook – the last six meetings between these sides have averaged 2.67 goals, with five ending in over 2.5 total. Given both teams’ current defensive issues and motivation to bounce back, this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and an open, attacking rhythm throughout the 90 minutes.

Athletic Club MG – Goiás

11.10.2025 21:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,58

The clash between Athletic Club and Goiás promises an open and attacking match. Athletic ended a four-game winless streak with a 4–1 victory over Operário Ferroviário, showing renewed attacking strength. Their last six matches averaged 2.8 goals per game, with frequent scoring and conceding at home. Goiás, currently second in Serie B, are in poor form with four matches without a win and just three goals scored in their last six outings. However, the return of key forwards Jajá and Brayann should significantly boost their offense. Athletic will miss defender Edson, while Goiás face defensive issues with full-backs Lovat and Diego Caito unavailable. Both sides are under pressure — Athletic to avoid relegation danger, and Goiás to remain in the top four. Their previous meeting ended 2–1 for Athletic, indicating a balanced but goal-rich fixture. Considering team news, recent trends, and attacking setups, the probability of over 2.5 total goals is strong, especially with both teams likely to find the net.

@AC_28

 Ferroviária - Chapecoense 0:1 FT. Tip KO

Ferroviária – Chapecoense

10.10.2025 00:00

Brazil Seria B

Tip: OVER 2,5 Goals

Odds: 2,27

Ferroviária come into this match after a 3-1 defeat to América Mineiro, having conceded 10 goals in their last six matches, showing defensive instability. Their backline will be further weakened by suspensions to Alencar and Edson Lucas, along with injuries to Juninho and Eric Melo. Chapecoense, on the other hand, arrive boosted by two consecutive wins and are pushing for a top-four spot. However, they too have defensive issues, conceding in 5 of their last 6 games, with 8 goals against. The previous head-to-head in June ended 2-1 for Chapecoense, indicating goals are common in this fixture. Coach Gilmar Dal Pozzo will be without defender João Paulo, who is contractually tied to Ferroviária, forcing changes in the lineup. Considering Ferroviária’s defensive absences and Chapecoense’s vulnerabilities, along with the high stakes for both survival and promotion, the match is likely to be open. Therefore, the data strongly supports the expectation of over 2.5 goals in this encounter.