Wk 15 interesting line

Gb -2.5 @ Den.

Den is 6-0 at home and on a 10 game winning streak.

And yet they're dog at home???

If I were to bet on this game, I will take the bait: Denver +2.5. 

It the books probably setting up a bloodbath.  Could be Denver relaxes their offense again like they did Week 7 against the Giants where they didn't score anything until the 4th quarter. And then the following week pounded Dallas with 44 points. I think they might be looking ahead pounding Jacksonville in Week 16. If Denver scores minimal points against GB, I think they're going to open up some whoop ass against Jacksonville with very strong offense. 

Green bay is -1.5 at DK now  Im on GB ML. Denver cant score and their pass D isnt that good, even Geno was connecting and Mariota last week. Love will torch these guys

@football_007

 I thought the same thing when looking at the early lines.  It's a good question to pose when a line doesn't appear to make sense.  Perhaps we'll get enough additional context from others here that will help shed light on the subject.

As things stand right now, I like the Denver home record you mentioned along with the fact that the Packers aren't that impressive to begin with. They could have a greater sense of urgency after their loss to PIT, but urgency alone doesn't win ball games. 

@SonicBlue

 Greater sense of urgency after their loss to Pitt. ?  

This winning streak gotta end sometime. Playing a quality opponent in Green Bay. 

And today Jacksonville didn't score any points until the 4th quarter. It's what they do. They're relaxing their offense and looking ahead to beating the Jets next week, that's why it's a fat -11.5. But then next at Week 16, Jacksonville's offense will be spent beating the Jets, kind of like they got in a bus crash type of spent. And Denver will be there, rested and waiting with full offense.  That's what I think.  -5.5.

There's an error in there with Jacksonville not scoring. Not sure what I was looking at.  Will be back though.

im a huge Broncos fan broncos has an easier schedule than GB imo that's why GB are favoured

I will bite and take Broncos +3-120 Broncos D will not make Love job easy. Nix and offence will find a way to break through Packers D

This game should be low scoring hopefully Broncos can make it 11 wins in a row

The same questionable line I asked in college about Kennesaw St being favorite at Jax St. I will keep an eye on to where this line move. It may shift to Denver by game day who knows.

I'll answer just how I answered on the last thread that was titled "Interesting line"

Lines are set by power rankings and metrics.

That is all 

at first glance, 3 things favor broncos IMO 

1. Home team + better defense + getting points = play ON

the defenses are pretty close, tho broncos are marginally better, plus their O-line is better

2. Broncos W streak…….As a rule, you’re supposed to bet into a streak, not against it

3.  When a visitor is favored, I usually like to see that they’ve won at that location recently, before I will back them.   Packers last  win @denver was in 2007 

I like Green Bay here.

I hope that it's a brawl till the bitter end, and the Packers come back the following week from elevation tired to Chicago. 

Sean Payton and Vance Joseph vs

Matt Lafleur and Jeff Hafley

Primo coaching battle 

@undermysac

I hope that it's a brawl till the bitter end, and the Packers come back the following week from elevation tired to Chicago. 

In all due respect Sac I want  no excuses for Greenbay not to be at 100% when playing in Chicago in two weeks as a cop out reasoning if they were to lose to the Bears.

Chicago needs to win convincingly before I or any Chicago bears fan moving forward are to take them seriously as a contender come playoff time.

What I seen yesterday was uplifting but uplifting doesn't do jack shit especially in letting the game escape from your grasp as it did....and to your rivals of all teams the Packers!! because......unless the Bears can beat both Detroit and the Packers at home and take the division because if not then in the end it will only show one thing.....That they (Chicago ) can't beat the good teams when it counts and once again will be a one in done and most likely a wildcard team on the road come playoff time. 

Bump. 

We shall discuss this game here,  ad nauseum, if the OP doesn't mind?

Current line is -2(-115) at Betonline. 

DK showing -2.5(-110)

Sagarin PR, SOS, and HFA

Packers 25.17, 19.19

Broncos 23.69, 18.20, 2.01

Sagarin line: Packers -0.46

TeamRankings Predictive PR

Packers +4.4, Broncos +3.0

Line: Packers -1.40

DVOA:

Packers #5 +21.1%

Broncos #8 +13.1%

To this day I don't know how to convert this to a spread. I do know that 0.00% is their watermark for an average team.

ProFootball Reference SRS(simple rating system)

Packers #10 +3.55

Broncos #12 +3.12

Expected Win/Loss record(pythagorean):

Packers 8.5-4.5

Broncos 8.5-4.5

To me, if you think that the line is funny or "interesting", by the raw #'s alone I would surmise that the books have already given the Packers a slight bump. Even if it's a 1/2 point or 1 point.

We can talk about any and all angles, matchups, coaching matchups, injuries, etc, to find a bet. Or no bet at all.

Which team has been better for bettors pockets up to this point?

Packers 6-7 ATS

Broncos 5-7-1 ATS

Packers 5-6 ATS as favorites 

Broncos 3-0-1 ATS as underdogs

@undermysac

 Heavy lean to the under. 23-20 seems like a ceiling for this game..den secondary should slow love...nix isnt that good

The Packers are on a 4 game win streak. Since week 11(Packers 4 games, Broncos 3 games)

Offensive epa per play:

Packers #1 +0.223

Broncos #4 +0.109

Defensive epa per play:

Packers #16 -0.005

Broncos #27 +0.085

QB epa+cpoe composite:

Love #2 +0.200

Nix #9 +0.124

As of now staying far away from this game.

Average strength of opponents since week 11:

I'll go by DVOA rankings...

Packers -0.55%

Broncos -10.26%

*note, the Packers faced the Lions who are highly rated by dvoa at +30.1%, the 3rd best team behind the Rams and Seahawks. Beat them 31-24. 

*The Broncos faced Vegas last game who are -32.3% absolutely brutal. Only the Titans are slightly worse.

In this same span the Packers point differential is +38, the Broncos is +10.

By weighted dvoa(more emphasis on recent games)

Packers #5 +22.1%

Broncos #6 +15.5%

That's all I got for the nerdy shit for now. 

Good Luck