Why Ravens go for 2?

Can anyone explain it to be?

Lions were up 38-30

Instead of kicking xtra point they went for 2.

Why at that point?

They still needed the onside kick

If they had won the onside now your force to score a Td and the 2 point conversion to tie the game.

Instead of just kicking the xtra point to make it 38-31

So getting that onside and a Td would mean 38-37

Now I would understand taking the risk to go for 2 instead of the xtra point to win since they are at home.

Sounds like they didn't want to go to OT. Try for the 2 pt conversion hope to go up 38-32 , onside kick with a chance to recover and go for the win. i think they were already looking ahead to kansas city at that point...

They didn't want a tie they wanted a win if the onside was successful and they scored a touchdown with no time left and if they missed in which they did then they would try to go for it again for the tie and take their chances in overtime..

That's the Hardballs way.

Guys I know they didnt want tie that why you go for the 2 but they went for at 38-30.

Not 38-37.

Why?

@Ppkay

 Why do you think 

@Ppkay

 It’s very simple. You’re down 14 points. If you score and go for 2 and get it, you now need one more TD with the standard XP to take the lead. If you don’t get it and stay down by 8, you will have a chance to go for 2 again to tie the game. If you disregard this option and score two TDs and kick two XPs, you are just playing for a tie game anyway.

With a success rate estimated at between 48 and 55 percent, the assumption is that if you go for a TPC twice you will succeed at least once. So knowing that you go for it the first time and the reward is massive if you pull it off. The penalty for failing the first time is only that you need to succeed the second time to tie the game, putting you in overtime exactly the way you’d end up by kicking two XPs.

The disappointment over not getting the 2 point conversion on the first try can negatively impact the momentum from just scoring the TD IMO. A tougher climb if you fail. I prefer the old school way.

Now Baltimore faces the wounded and hungry Chiefs. Now the silly Steelers are atop the AFC North. I didn't have that on my bingo card. All hail man God Mike Tomlin. 

@Buffalobob89074

 I’m not sold on the go for two strategy 100% either, but the fact that extra point kicks aren’t a guarantee makes me like it a little more.

Yea this is stupid especially when u picked ravens -4. If they convert the 2 point conversion the bet is for sure dead. Whereas going to other actually gives u a chance to cover

So you get 2 chances to do it 

That's exactly what it was. 

With a general consensus of the 2pt try being successful around 50% of the time, you expect it to work 1 out of two times. So why would you not go for it the first time? 

#6 exactly.  With the low % of on side recovery and TD it's worth the risk on the first one to posture yourself for the win.

Idk what's worse that or that before the scored I knew the TD and 2 PT conversion was coming.

@brn2loslive2win

 Last year, 2pt conversions were 55 for 135 or 40%. This year 7 for 21 or 33%. But lets dig deeper. The top 2 pts conversion teams last year:

Cleveland Browns 5-8

NY Jets 5-9

Washington Commanders 4-6

Jacksonville Jaguars 4-7

Tennesse titans 3-4.

Notice something? All the worst teams in football, sans the commanders, are the best at converting 2 pts plays. HUH? how can the abysmal teams be so good at only one aspect of the game? Lets dig deeper. Can it be that these teams are so far behind, that the other teams don't care/don't play defense/have 3rd stringers in to boost the overall numbers? The Clevland Browns have been the best 2 years running now, but their record awful!

I didn't do all games yet, but when 2 winning teams play each other the 2 pt conversion rate is closer to 25%, and i believe its actually closer to 20% in the 4th quarter, of tight games.

Defenses have caught up to the offenses on 2 pters, without doubt.

@brn2loslive2win

No, it is not simple. It is plain stupid and ignorance on the Ravens part. No team in the right mind would go for two in this situation. If this is the case, all the team should go for 2 after every touch down.

If they really want to go for the win, they should kick the x-point then go for 2 if they can get another TD. Only underdog/away team would take this strategy. There is no need for home favorite team to take this route.

There is probably some live Ravens +7.5 yesterday and those will get killed.

@TJZags598

 So if you take out the bottom feeders, 2pt conversions last years were 36%. Thats an awful gamble for a good team to make.

I can certainly argue that there were some tush pushes in there when teams got penalties to make it a 1 yard 2 pt conversion, maybe the overall number is closer to 33% overall?

The Strategy of 2 pters is to push them off as long as possible, to keep momentum going, morale high, and possibility to win game as much as possible.

......... this is how the coaches look at it and why they do it.

Agree or disagree  but that is the reason for it.

I'm  not saying I agree but if you want to understand why this is it.

If teams are not coverting at 50% then coaches have not kept up with recent results or they just don't care. They may feel we have the offense  to do it so it is worth the try.

To me the issue is variance, 50% does not mean they will convert 50% every game , it doesn't work that way.

It is 50% over time. Some teams may have a high variance while others have a low variances.

Low variance teams have the better chance.

Devil, that is exactly why coaches do it.

Agree or disagree but that is the thinking behind going for 2 in that spot.

The reason you don't do it every TD is because you only do it when based on the score and the time left there is only 1 result can happen for a team to win.

Most wont do it if there are multiple senerio's could happen because you never know which senerio that 1 pt conversion could get you the win.

I'm  only explaining the thinking behind.

I do agree with going for 2 in the situations based on score and time left with basically 1 reasonable senerio could get you a tie.

Then a team has no choice.

But playing to win instead of tie a team does have a choice. I'm not sure I would agree with that but that is how teams look at it.

So the analytics favor going for two in that situation because if you don't get it the first time you can go for it the second time and still tie the game but if you get it the first time you can go for the win the second time with an extra point and the odds claim that you'll get it at least one out of two times so if you get the first time you're in position to win it actually makes sense.

Analytics don't favor going for 2 at all.

You have a 25% chance of winning the game ( assuming you get the onside) if you go for 2, then 1.

If you kick the extra pt both time( again assuming you get the onside again) you have a 53% chance of winning in overtime

home teams have historically won 53% of games in OT.

Harbaugh is wrong. There is a reason why he has blown 3X more second half leads than any other team the last 10 years

"assuming you get the onside"

This is the linch pin to the entire discussion. 

The likelihood of recovery and scoring is very small making the risk of the first 2 point conversion worth being postured for the win.

And if you dont get it, add the second conversion to the long list of improbabilities you'd need to overcome anyway.

100%why they went for 2

And if u watch both attempts Lamar made sure neither 1 was going to be converted.

Theres no situation where going for 2 there is the right call 

Onsides kicks these days are at a low rate 

AND if u get it and score a td then u go for 2 for the W 

Getting the 2 there does nothing bc it all depends on the onsides kick anyways 

That was to make sure ravens +7.5 live bets on the final lions drive all lost 

Period 

Let’s not forget the way that the game was playing out either fellas. I’m not saying I agree with the 2pt but I understand why the coaches think it’s the right move. Apparently I’m not doing the right research if the numbers prove that it’s not even close to 50% success rate. There are others on here who are much more informed than I and I trust that they are right…

BUT!, look at the way this game had unfolded. The lions were moving the ball up and down the field at will. Do you think Baltimore wanted to even think about going to OT? Their defense exhausted and playing poorly? The chance that Detroit gets the ball first and marches straight down for a TD? Or of course the fact that at any time the Ravens could have missed or had an XP blocked? In this particular situation I believe that the 2pt was the correct way to go. Pray that it all works out and get out of there with a miraculous win. 

@JFelty

If covers technology wasnt so bad I could post a flow chart with percentages.

It is ALWAYS the right move to go for 2 when you score a td to go down 8 from 14 (4th qtr).